谷歌旗下AI业务部门DeepMind周四宣布，计划在英国建立该公司的首个"自动化研究实验室"，旨在利 用人工智能与机器人技术加速科学实验进程。 该实验室预计将于明年正式启用，作为双方近期达成的一项合作伙伴关系的核心内容，英国科学家将获 得使用DeepMind部分最先进AI工具的"优先访问权"。此举标志着英国政府与美国科技巨头之间的联系 进一步加深，双方均致力于推动前沿模型在实际场景中的落地。 投资浪潮与国家战略背景 此次新实验室的宣布，正值英国全力加速构建AI基础设施和公共部署之际。自今年1月发布国家AI战略 以来，英国一直竞相与主要科技公司签署协议以增强技术实力。 市场资金流向显示出科技巨头对英国市场的持续加注。今年，Microsoft、Nvidia、谷歌和OpenAI宣布计 划向英国新的AI基础设施注入超过400亿美元投资。随着全球AI人才和算力竞争的加剧，DeepMind此举 进一步巩固了英国作为关键研发中心的地位。 DeepMind于2010年在伦敦成立，并于2014年被谷歌收购，但一直保留了在英国的大型运营基地。公司 联合创始人Demis Hassabis表示，AI拥有推动科学发现新时代和改善日常生 ...

随之而来的是管理层的深度介入。MGX的人工智能投资主管Ali Osman已于今年加入Vantage董事会。这 一举措使MGX得以在第一线观察并参与今年以来最大规模的数据中心交易。 成立仅一年的阿联酋基金MGX迅速在全球资本市场崛起，已悄然成为世界级的数据中心主要出资方之 一。通过主导创纪录的收购案以及对关键资产的战略入股，这股来自中东的资本力量正在深度介入并支 撑起美国庞大的人工智能基础设施建设。 据媒体报道，在Aligned Data Centers高达400亿美元的收购案中，MGX将成为单一最大股东。这笔交易 若在明年上半年顺利完成，将成为有史以来规模最大的数据中心交易。在直接持股的同时，MGX还通 过投资其他合作关系进一步巩固了其作为美国主要数据中心运营商最大金主的地位。 与此同时，MGX已介入与OpenAI核心项目密切相关的Vantage Data Centers，不仅持有股份，更有高管 入驻董事会。这一系列动作表明，在硅谷对算力和电力需求激增的背景下，阿联酋正通过雄厚的资本实 力，试图从单纯的财务投资者转变为全球AI发展的核心参与者。 在MGX主席Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed A ...

摩尔线程上市仅五个交易日股价狂飙至941元，累计涨幅逾七倍，市值突破4400亿元。以114.28元发行价计算，单签浮盈已超41万元。尽管基本面 仍处高投入与亏损阶段，但资金在AI与国产算力崛起预期下持续推高股价，情绪主导走势。 作为"国产GPU第一股"，摩尔线程在登陆科创板后的短短五个交易日内，正在以惊人的涨幅重新定义市场的估值逻辑与造富效应。 截至12月11日，摩尔线程股价在午后进一步走高，收盘录得最高价941.08元，单日涨幅达28.04%。目前公司总市值已攀升至4423亿元，股价距离 千元大关仅差6.26%，约60元的差距。 市场对摩尔线程的追捧建立在AI驱动GPU需求激增的行业逻辑之上。据国金证券樊志远在11月28日的研报，2024年全球GPU市场规模超万亿元， 预计2025至2029年复合年增长率（CAGR）将达24.5%。中国市场增速更快，预计规模将从2024年的1425亿元跃升至2029年的13368亿元，CAGR 高达53.7%。 若以114.28元的发行价计算，该股上市以来累计涨幅已达723%。对于极少数能够中签并持有至今的投资者而言，单签浮盈已超过41万元。这一表 现不仅使其成为近期资本市 ...

KWEB由金瑞基金发行，在纽交所上市，是全球规模最大的在美上市中国ETF，在全球投资者中享有较高认知度。新上市ETF与在美国管理的 KWEB ETF跟踪同一指数，产品设计保持基本一致。 该产品旨在为亚洲时区投资者提供便捷的中国互联网资产配置工具。产品以港元、美元和人民币三种货币交易，年管理费率为0.68%，同时提供 现金及实物券两种申赎方式。分析师认为，随着中国在AI创新领域加速发展，该ETF持有的多数公司处于相关技术发展前沿。 12月11日，工银瑞信金瑞KWEB中证中国互联网ETF正式在港交所上市交易，成为亚洲首只对标KWEB的ETF产品。该产品由工银瑞信资产管理 （国际）有限公司与金瑞基金（KraneShares）合作推出，追踪中证海外中国互联网指数，涵盖电子商务、云计算、金融科技、在线娱乐和人工智 能等领域。 十二年来KWEB一直是全球领先的专注于中国的ETF之一。随着亚洲对高质量中国投资的需求持续增长，将这一成熟投资策略引入香 港交易所是顺理成章的下一步。 瞄准数字经济和AI发展机遇 新ETF的推出时点正值中国在人工智能创新领域加速发展之际。产品持有的多数公司在大型语言模型、云基础设施、自主系统以及下 ...

台积电正加速扩充先进封装产能以应对人工智能芯片需求的爆发式增长。 12月11日，据中国台湾媒体报道，半导体设备业者透露，台积电与日月光集团、Amkor、联电等非台积 阵营双双加速扩充CoWoS产能，2026年底台积电月产能将达12.7万片，而非台积阵营产能也从原预期的 2.6万片激增至4万片，调升幅度超过5成。 在客户份额分布上，英伟达继续主导市场，包下台积电CoWoS过半产能，全年预订量达80万至85万 片。紧随其后的博通2026年约取得逾24万片产能，主要供应Meta与谷歌TPU等客户。AMD位居第三， 而联发科也正式进入ASIC赛局，预订近2万片产能。 这一产能扩张计划与摩根士丹利11月的预测基本吻合。据追风交易台消息，该行当时预计台积电 CoWoS月产能将达12万至13万片，较此前估计的10万片大幅上调超过20%。此举旨在匹配新增的3nm前 端晶圆产能，以满足AI芯片的巨大需求。 值得注意的是，华尔街见闻此前文章称，在英伟达CEO黄仁勋访台寻求下一代"Rubin"平台产能后，台 积电决定增加每月2万片的3nm前端晶圆产能，进而带动后端先进封装产能同步提升。 GPU与ASIC需求同步爆发 台积电与非台积 ...

Core Insights - Oracle's stock plummeted over 10% after the earnings report, prompting several investment banks to lower target prices or reassess their ratings [1] - Concerns have shifted from order growth to conversion efficiency, with a significant increase in RPO but doubts about sustainable profit generation [2][6] - The discrepancy between strong EPS and weak core profitability raises questions about the underlying business health [3][4] Financial Performance - Oracle reported a record RPO of $523 billion, with new orders increasing by $67.7 billion, driven by AI-related purchases from major companies like Meta and Nvidia [2] - Total revenue grew by 13% year-over-year, but cloud infrastructure revenue of $4.079 billion fell short of market expectations [2][3] - Non-GAAP EPS reached $2.26, significantly exceeding the expected $1.65, primarily due to $2.7 billion in non-recurring gains from the sale of Ampere shares [3] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures surged to $12 billion, a 200% increase year-over-year, leading to negative free cash flow of -$10 billion [3][4] - Management raised the capital expenditure target for FY2026 to $50 billion, which is 75% of the expected annual revenue, indicating a mismatch between high investment and slow revenue conversion [3][4] Market Reactions and Valuation Adjustments - Investment banks have collectively downgraded target prices, reflecting a shift in valuation logic from premium based on order potential to discount due to realization risks [6][7] - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating but lowered the target price from $380 to $325, while Bank of America also retained its "Buy" rating with a target price cut from $368 to $300 [6][7] - Morgan Stanley has placed its rating and target price under review, expressing concerns over order conversion and margin trends [6][7] Future Outlook - UBS and Bank of America remain optimistic about the long-term potential of Oracle's $523 billion RPO, anticipating recovery as OCI growth accelerates [6][7] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the need for clearer signals of revenue growth, stable margins, and positive cash flow to rebuild confidence in Oracle's AI business profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk has faced its worst performance year ever due to poor clinical trial results, multiple profit warnings, and intense market competition, leading to a stock price drop of over 50% in 2023, erasing gains since the approval of Wegovy in 2021 [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock price of Novo Nordisk has fallen more than 50% this year, nearly negating the significant increase since Wegovy's approval for weight loss treatment in 2021 [1]. - Analysts predict that Novo Nordisk's sales may decline by 2026, contrasting sharply with the previous growth rates of 25%-30% during its prosperous period [3]. - The current trading price of the stock is approximately 14 times expected earnings, which is half of the average valuation over the past five years and over 10% cheaper than the MSCI World Pharmaceuticals Index [3][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The main threat to Novo Nordisk comes from Eli Lilly, whose stock has surged over 28% this year, contrasting with Novo Nordisk's decline [4]. - Novo Nordisk's weight loss drugs are reportedly less effective than those from Eli Lilly, which has enhanced Eli Lilly's market communication capabilities [7]. - The market sentiment has shifted, with investors favoring Eli Lilly as the primary beneficiary of the significant growth in the market, indicating a strong preference for Eli Lilly over Novo Nordisk [7]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Novo Nordisk is banking on new product launches to recover from its current challenges, including a more potent version of Wegovy and an oral version expected to launch early next year [8]. - The new CEO, Mike Doustdar, has indicated that the company has "sufficient" pills for targeted release and is in preliminary talks with Hims & Hers Health Inc. for remote sales of obesity pills [8]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Novo Nordisk, with 17 out of 33 institutions maintaining a buy rating, suggesting that the stock price drop may have been overdone and that a higher valuation is justified based on the company's strong R&D track record [10].

Group 1: Core Insights - The classic "60/40" stock-bond portfolio strategy is projected to face extremely weak returns over the next decade, with an expected annualized real return of -0.1% after inflation [1] - The main reason for this bleak outlook is the anticipated decline in the performance of U.S. large-cap stocks, which have seen over 15% growth for three consecutive years [1] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions and consider "satellite" assets outside the consensus, including international small and mid-cap stocks, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and gold [1] Group 2: Equity Assets - The report highlights international small and mid-cap stocks as a favorable investment, noting a 15% annualized return over the past five years, comparable to U.S. large-cap growth stocks [2] - Quality U.S. stocks, characterized by strong financial health and low debt levels, are also recommended, as they have consistently outperformed other major style factors since 1996 [2] Group 3: Fixed Income - In fixed income, high-yield bonds are seen as offering the best opportunities, with a current default rate of approximately 2.6%, lower than private credit and syndicated loans [5] - Emerging market fixed income has outperformed U.S. and global bonds over the past three years, with annualized returns of 9% to 12% for portfolios including high-dividend emerging market stocks [5] Group 4: Physical Assets and Thematic Investments - Gold is expected to rebound to $4,538 per ounce next year, representing an 8% increase from current levels, driven by strong global central bank demand and rising fiscal deficits [7] - Thematic investment opportunities include artificial intelligence and technology, U.S. industrial revival, and uranium resources, which are projected to have long-term growth potential [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% during the December monetary policy meeting, with a probability of approximately 90% priced in by the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Nomura Securities predicts that the Bank of Japan will likely emphasize that "real interest rates remain very low," indicating no dovish signals suggesting an end to rate hikes [1][6]. - A recent survey shows that 90% of economists anticipate a 25 basis point increase in the interest rate during the December 18-19 meeting, with expectations for rates to rise to 1.0% by September 2026 and a terminal rate forecast of up to 1.5% [1][2][8]. - Nomura believes that the timing for reaching a 1.0% interest rate should be in January 2027, rather than the market's priced-in expectation of September 2026 [1][10]. Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The upcoming wage negotiations and concerns over the yen's depreciation are significant factors influencing the Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates [2][5]. - Political shifts, particularly the changing stance of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding aggressive fiscal expansion, are also seen as supporting the case for rate hikes [5]. Group 3: Communication Strategy - The focus post-rate hike will be on how Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda manages market expectations during the press conference [6]. - Ueda may maintain a qualitative stance that "real interest rates are very low" and a quantitative estimate of the natural interest rate range between -1% and +0.5%, while keeping future adjustments flexible [7][9]. - The market has already priced in a very aggressive rate hike path, with indicators suggesting a terminal rate expectation that may be overly hawkish [8][9].

高盛认为，美国私人投资组合中的黄金配置处于历史低位，为金价在未来一年半内冲击每盎司4900美元的目标创造了巨大空间。 据追风交易台，高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在最新报告中指出，美国黄金ETF目前仅占私人非现金金融投资组合的 0.17%，较2012年峰值水平低约6个基点。这一配置比例远低于花旗、瑞银、桥水等机构建议的中高个位数百分比配置。 高盛估算，美国金融投资组合中黄金份额每增加1个基点——由增量投资者购买而非价格上涨驱动——将推动金价上涨约1.4%。分 析师表示，如果多元化资金流动从央行扩展至私人投资者，其4900美元的金价目标面临"显著上行风险"。 截至目前，现货黄金报4213.2美元/盎司，日内跌0.36%，本周呈现反弹趋势。 根据13F文件数据，在管理超过1亿美元资产的美国大型机构投资者中，不到一半持有任何黄金ETF敞口。即使在持有黄金的机构 中，配置比例通常也仅为0.1%至0.5%。 据2025年第三季度13F文件数据，美国机构投资者的黄金参与率为46%，高于2020年学术研究中约30%的水平。在有黄金敞口的机构 中，等权重平均配置为1.7%，而价值加权平均配置为0 ...