本周二，美国最高法院将审理"特朗普诉库克案"（Trump vs Cook）。这不仅仅是一场人事纠纷，更是 美联储作为独立央行是否即将终结的"审判日"。 决定美联储命运的"审判日" 本周最高法院的听证会（案卷号25A312）将决定Lisa Cook是否能继续担任美联储理事。 此前，特朗普政府指控Cook在抵押贷款申请中涉嫌欺诈（由联邦住房金融局局长William Pulte提出）， 并通过社交媒体宣布将其免职。Cook随即起诉并获得了法院的初步禁令，阻止了这一免职。 据追风交易台信息，瑞银在16日的报告中直言，这场审判关乎美联储独立性的生死存亡。如果法院裁决 允许白宫"因故"绕过《联邦储备法》罢免理事Lisa Cook，那么鲍威尔被解职的法律大门将被彻底踢 开。 这意味着基于数据的货币政策逻辑可能瞬间坍塌，取而代之的是政治驱动的降息指令。一旦防线失守， 美元、美债和美股的定价体系将面临长期的结构性重估。瑞银警告，2026年市场注定"颠簸"，而本周就 是震源中心。 瑞银在报告指出，该案件直接挑战了《联邦储备法》中关于理事只能"因故"（for cause）被免职的保护 条款。 白宫方面认为，总统拥有广泛的权力，即使 ...

Core Insights - China's transformer exports are projected to reach a record high of 64.6 billion RMB in 2025, marking a nearly 36% increase from the previous year, driven by global shortages and rising prices in the power equipment market [1] - The average export price per transformer has risen to 205,000 RMB, reflecting a one-third increase year-on-year, amidst significant global demand for transformer infrastructure [1] - The global investment in power grids is expected to exceed 480 billion USD in 2024, with strong growth momentum anticipated in the coming years [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand surge for transformers is primarily driven by the modernization of aging power grids and a global boom in data center construction, with the global data center market projected to grow from 242.72 billion USD in 2024 to 584.86 billion USD by 2032 [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the delivery cycle for power transformers will remain high through 2025, with the U.S. expected to face a 30% supply shortfall in transformer demand [5][6] - The price index for global power transformers has increased 1.5 times since 2020, with some complex models reaching prices 2.6 times higher than pre-pandemic levels [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain and Investment - China's transformer exports account for one-quarter of the global market, with significant reliance from Europe and the U.S. on imports due to severe shortages [10] - The State Grid of China has announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at building a new power system [10] - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh by 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth, which will further support domestic demand for transformers [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Cainiao's global overseas warehouse order volume is expected to grow by 32% year-on-year by 2025, continuing to lead the industry in growth rate [2] - The growth in order volume is attributed to the accelerated international expansion of "Made in China" brands, with an increasing share of smart products in Cainiao's overseas warehouse business [2] - A significant trend in the new wave of Chinese enterprises going global is the focus on building global brands, with a consensus that "globalization means localization," making overseas warehousing a key strategy for localization [2] Group 2 - According to customs data, China's high-tech product exports are projected to reach 5.25 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth of 13.2%, while exports of self-owned brand products are expected to grow by 12.9%, increasing their share of total exports by 1.4% [3] - Leading smart cleaning appliance brand Ecovacs and projector brand XGIMI have achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth in order volume from Cainiao's overseas warehouses, while several leading brands in 3D printing, such as Anycubic, have seen double-digit growth [3] - Cainiao plans to launch over 10 new warehouses globally in 2025 and increase investments in automation equipment like AGV robots and automated sorting lines, enhancing both order processing capacity and labor efficiency [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment strategy of Cheung Hai, known as the "Hong Kong Buffett," who allocates a significant portion of his wealth to gold, far exceeding the average allocation among peers, and adheres to a "buy and hold" strategy without trading or using derivatives [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Cheung Hai has allocated approximately 25% of his family office assets, totaling around $1.4 billion, to precious metals, particularly gold, while the average allocation among family offices is only 2% [1][2]. - His investment in precious metals began with small amounts in 2008, leading to substantial purchases of physical gold ETFs ten years later, resulting in cumulative gains of $251.1 million and a growth rate of 167% [1][2]. - He recommends an investment portfolio consisting of 60% stocks, 20% bonds, and 20% precious metals, primarily gold, citing geopolitical tensions as a driving force for gold and silver [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Performance - Cheung Hai's significant gold purchases were funded by selling shares of his company, Wei Li Group, before a major market correction in 2015 [4]. - He launched the Value Gold ETF in 2010, storing physical gold in Hong Kong, and remains the largest shareholder of the fund, valued at approximately HKD 1.3 billion ($167 million) [4]. - The prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin reached historical highs in early 2026, driven by anticipated easing policies from the Federal Reserve, political pressures from the Trump administration, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - Cheung Hai believes that the world is entering a period of large-scale "vault migration," with wealthy Asian families increasingly moving their assets back to the region to avoid U.S. sanctions or potential asset seizures [4]. - He emphasizes that owning physical gold is a secure way to store wealth, as it does not rely on any third party [4][5]. - The article notes that some Asian family offices are bypassing intermediaries to trade physical gold directly, reflecting a growing trend in precious metal investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised the target price for SK Hynix to 1 million KRW, citing the long-term growth trend in AI memory demand and a potential US stock listing as dual catalysts for stock price increase [1][3]. Group 1: Target Price Adjustment - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for SK Hynix and has increased the target price for December 2026 from 800,000 KRW to 1 million KRW, anticipating strong pricing momentum to drive upward revisions in earnings expectations [1][3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 is projected to be revised upward by 20% to 25% [1][9]. Group 2: Capital Operations and US Listing - SK Hynix is evaluating various measures to enhance corporate value, including the potential for a US stock listing through American Depositary Receipts (ADR), which could narrow the valuation gap with US peers [3][15]. - The company is considering listing approximately 2.4% of its outstanding shares, equivalent to about 17.4 million shares, to attract capital from passive funds and ETFs that invest only in US-listed stocks [15]. Group 3: Technology and Market Position - The recent investment plan of 19 trillion KRW for a packaging plant reinforces SK Hynix's commitment to developing AI memory solutions, with large-scale production expected to begin in 2028 [4]. - Despite a temporary decline in HBM sales proportion to 30% this year, it is forecasted to rebound to 39% by 2027, supported by the company's leading position in HBM4 technology [4][9]. Group 4: Pricing Momentum and Earnings Outlook - Strong server demand is driving upward potential in the traditional DRAM and NAND markets, leading to a 7-9% upward revision in the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM [9]. - Capital expenditures for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 are projected to be adjusted to 36-48 trillion KRW, primarily due to infrastructure spending, with a capital intensity of 20-23%, significantly lower than the historical average of 33% from 2016 to 2025 [9].

目前的韩国股市呈现出一种极具讽刺意味的流动性结构：市场在飙升，但散户在撤退。 当地时间本周一，韩国首尔综合指数首次突破4900点，日内涨1.3%，年初至今（YTD）涨幅高达15%，这一表现显著跑赢亚洲其他市场。然而， 这是一场典型的"机构进、散户退"的行情。 野村统计显示，虽然整体趋势是"外资进、散户退"，但在个股层面，资金博弈更为复杂。根据对193只股票的资金流向分析（自2025年5月至 今），不同龙头的买家构成存在显著差异。 市场领头羊三星电子（Samsung Electronics）和SK海力士（SK Hynix）均呈现多类别买家净买入的态势。其中，三星电子主要由外资主导买入， 而SK海力士则主要由本地机构推动。 某些板块完全依赖外资驱动。例如，HD现代重工（HD Hyundai Heavy Industries）和HD现代（HD Hyundai）的上涨，几乎完全是由外国投资者的 净买入所推动的。 据追风交易台信息，野村在1月18日的报告中表示，目前推动市场上涨的动力完全来自于外国投资者和本地机构（主要是金融投资）。相比之下， 韩国散户投资者在此期间一直是股票的净卖家。 这种背离在ETF资金流向中尤为明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's 2020 policy meeting minutes reveal that Chairman Jerome Powell strongly advocated for a key decision he later regretted, which many critics believe contributed to the Fed's slow response to rising inflation during the pandemic [1]. Group 1: Decision-Making Process - In the September 2020 meeting, Powell pushed for a strong and specific interest rate guidance, committing to keep rates near zero until full employment and a 2% inflation target were achieved [1]. - Despite opposition from several colleagues, Powell won the debate, emphasizing the need for immediate action rather than waiting [2]. Group 2: Internal Opposition - Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed reservations about the strong commitment but did not publicly voice their dissent [2]. - In the formal vote, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan opposed the strong commitment, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supported it [3]. Group 3: Consequences of the Decision - The consequences of this interest rate guidance became evident in the following two years, with inflation starting to rise significantly in 2021, peaking at 7.2% in mid-2022 [4]. - The Fed did not begin raising interest rates until March 2022, months after inflation had clearly exceeded the target, with critics citing the strong commitment made in September 2020 as a key factor in the Fed's delayed action [4].

Core Viewpoint - Apple has regained the top position in the Chinese smartphone market during the holiday season, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, despite facing a significant shortage of storage chips [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Apple's smartphone shipments in China surged by 28% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, capturing one-fifth of the total market share [1]. - For the full year of 2025, Apple's shipments in China increased by 7.5%, holding approximately 17% market share, closely following the leading local competitor [1][4]. - The high-end smartphone segment has shown resilience against the ongoing storage chip crisis, with minimal impact reported on premium devices [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The semiconductor supply shortage, particularly for storage chips, is intensifying, primarily due to manufacturers reallocating capacity to produce high-end AI storage chips for Nvidia [1]. - Analysts predict that storage prices will continue to rise, with an expected increase of 40% to 50% in the first quarter of 2026, followed by an additional 20% in the second quarter [1][4]. - This price pressure is likely to force smartphone manufacturers to optimize their product lines, particularly by reducing low-end models to maintain profit margins [4]. Group 3: Product Strategy - Despite Apple's strong overall performance, the iPhone Air model has underperformed due to its later launch in China compared to other regions and a compromise between weight and functionality [4]. - The new consumer subsidy policies in China have somewhat alleviated cost pressures for manufacturers [4]. - The trend indicates that brands with high pricing power will have a competitive advantage over those relying on low-margin volume sales in a high-cost chip environment [5].

欧盟已批准但暂停实施的930亿欧元报复性关税清单，将针对美国工业品，包括波音公司飞机、美国制 造的汽车和波旁威士忌等产品。据知情人士透露，如果特朗普在2月初对相关国家实施关税，欧盟可以 允许这些反制措施重新生效。 欧盟正准备对价值930亿欧元（约合1080亿美元）的美国商品征收报复性关税，以回应特朗普总统威胁 对八个欧洲国家加征关税的举动。这场围绕格陵兰岛引发的贸易冲突，可能对双方经济造成重大冲击。 据央视新闻19日报道，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税，或限制美国企业进 入欧盟市场。一名欧盟外交官透露，如果欧盟与美国未能达成协议，报复性关税将从2月6日起自动生 效。 特朗普17日在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬 兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美国"全 面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 对此，欧盟27国代表周日召开会议开始准备应对方案。欧盟领导人本周晚些时候将在布鲁塞尔举行紧急 会议，探讨可能的报复措施。欧洲理事会主席Antonio Costa周日在社交媒体上表示，欧盟各国团结支持 ...

高盛分析师Arun Manohar在上周三发布的研报中指出，这些政策已对市场产生实质影响。自去年6月以 来房贷利率累计下降约80个基点，预计2026年成屋销售量较2025年至少增长5-7%。 不过分析师也警告，如果2000亿美元购买计划仅为一次性操作，且没有后续支持措施，MBS利差可能 在年底前走阔，导致房贷利率下降趋势逆转。 MBS购买计划推动利率降至三年低点 1月8日，特朗普在社交媒体宣布指示相关部门购买2000亿美元抵押贷款债券。随后，Director Pulte和财 政部长贝森特确认，该购买计划由政府支持企业房利美和房地美执行。 尽管项目细节有限，机构MBS市场已迅速消化这一利好。当前息票利差收窄约14-15个基点，房贷利率 同步下降，目前已接近2022年9月以来的最低水平。高盛认为，这一利差收窄幅度与计划规模相符，意 味着市场已充分定价。 高盛指出，自2025年6月以来房贷利率累计下降约80个基点，这将改善购房可负担性，提振春季购房旺 季前的市场情绪。分析师预计，这一降幅可使2026年成屋销售量较2025年增长至少5-7%。 美国房地产市场在经历三年交易低迷后可能迎来转机，高盛最新研究显示，特朗普政 ...