近日，以准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的"大空头"Michael Burry接受了一档播客节目的访谈。 在对话中，Michael Burry对当前美股市场的展望持极度悲观态度，认为未来几年可能会迎来一场类似 2000年的长期熊市。他判断，由于被动投资（指数基金）占据市场主导地位（超过50%），未来市场下 跌时将是"一体下跌"，在美国很难靠多头仓位保护自己。 Burry将当前的AI投资热潮类比为2000年的"数据传输泡沫"，指出两者都存在资本开支与股市见顶的时 滞。他押注Palantir在两年内会大幅下跌，看空的核心理由是其不合理的估值和不健康的财务结构，特 别是公司在收入不高的情况下，通过大量高成本的股权激励造就了多位亿万富翁，而历史上几乎没有赚 到过真正的利润。 以下为访谈亮点总结： 以下为访谈实录，部分内容有删减： 我认为现在股市的状况不妙，未来几年可能会很糟糕，可能会迎来一段类似 2000 年那 样的长期熊市。 现在，我认为整个市场会一体下跌，在美国很难靠持有多头仓位同时保护自己。 例如，Palantir 现在是 200 美元一股，而我认为它只值 30 美元甚至更低，我就会在执 行价 50 美元的位置 ...

Core Points - Beijing Bank has received a lawsuit notification from Suzhou Intermediate People's Court, being named as a defendant in the Kangde Xin Securities false statement case [1] - The case number is (2024) Su 05 Min Chu 1473, and the court hearing has not yet commenced [1] Litigation Details - The plaintiffs are investors in Kangde Xin, represented by Hu Juling and others [1] - A total of 40 defendants are involved, with Beijing Bank and its Xidan branch being the 29th and 30th defendants respectively [1] - The main defendants include Kangde Xin and its related parties, as well as responsible personnel [1] Compensation Claims - The plaintiffs are seeking compensation for investment losses amounting to 4.139 billion yuan, which includes investment differences, stamp duty, and commissions [1] - Additional costs of 3 million yuan are also being claimed [1] - The plaintiffs request that all defendants, excluding Kangde Xin, bear joint liability [1] Impact Assessment - The bank asserts that it is not the primary responsible party in this case [1] - Preliminary assessments indicate that the lawsuit will not have a substantial impact on the bank's normal operations and profits [1] - The bank will continue to monitor the situation and disclose updates in a timely manner [1]

风险提示及免责条款 李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。（央视） 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

与此同时，铂族金属股票当前按1220美元/盎司篮子价格计价，较现货价格折价超过20%，估值吸引力明显。历史数据显示，贵 金属股票价格与基础商品表现密切相关，黄金股票在过去5年中与金价的拟合优度（R²）超过82%。 分析师指出，如果现货价格保持当前水平，股票价格有望出现重估驱动的上涨空间。这为投资者在当前折价水平进入市场提供 了机会。 投资者情绪分化明显，铂族金属板块潜在反转空间加大 2026年，花旗研究团队对全球贵金属股票持偏积极态度，明确看好铂族金属（PGMs）优于黄金。 据追风交易台，花旗银行在最新研究报告中表示，相比黄金，2026年铂族金属具备更优的风险回报特征。该投行认为，黄金价 格已在每盎司4000美元附近企稳，风险回报相对均衡，而铂金和钯金则具备向上倾斜的潜力。 花旗指出，铂族金属在过去三年中明显落后于黄金价格表现，铂金相对黄金交易价格大幅折价，这在历史上并不常见。该行分 析师认为，工业需求中黄金向铂金的边际替代可能进一步支撑铂金和钯金价格。 报告预测，当前黄金股票价格反映约3200美元/盎司的金价预期，较现货价格折价超过25%，而铂族金属股票价格反映约1220美 元/盎司的一篮子价格，较现货折价 ...

SHMET 网讯：铜价升至历史新高之际，花旗发布看涨预测为涨势注入新动能。 周五，花旗在基准情景中预计，受美国囤货导致其他地区供应短缺影响，铜价将在明年第二季度平均触及每吨13000美元。目 前铜价上涨1.97%至每吨11675美元，突破本周稍早创下的前期高点。 高盛认为短期内铜价脱离了基本面，2025年全球铜市将面临50万吨的供应过剩，铜价在短期内难以维持在11000美元以上。但 长期来看，铜依然是高盛的"最爱"。该行预测到2026年铜价将在10000至11000美元区间运行，其中10000美元构成坚实的价格 底部。高盛预测真正的供应短缺将从2029年开始出现，并预计到2035年伦敦金属交易所铜价将达到15000美元/吨。 麦格理的谨慎观点呼应了高盛本周早些时候的看法，后者同样不预期铜短缺会在2029年前出现。 库存错配加剧市场紧张 全球交易所铜库存已飙升至超过65.6万吨，为2018年以来最高水平，其中约60%存放在美国商品交易所旗下仓库。这一库存分 布格局凸显了市场的地域性失衡。 摩根大通将当前局面定义为铜价进入"波动性更强、更急看涨的中场阶段"，其核心逻辑是美国虹吸效应迫使非美地区买家抢 购现货，致使 ...

在这样的背景下，今晚即将公布的9月PCE（个人消费支出价格指数），成为市场眼中一份"迟到却关键的判决书"。受美国政府停摆影响，9月 PCE与个人收入报告推迟到12月5日美东时间上午（北京时间晚上）发布，原定发布时间为10月31日。 华尔街预计，美联储偏好的核心个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)将在9月同比上涨2.8%，高于8月的2.7%，这将是自2024年4月以来的最高水平。如果 数据符合预期，核心PCE通胀将连续55个月高于美联储2%的目标。 此外，9月PCE物价指数预计环比上涨0.3%，核心指数上涨0.2%。年化数据方面，整体PCE涨幅预计维持在2.9%不变。 尽管通胀数据可能令人失望，市场仍预期美联储下周将降息25个基点，CME FedWatch工具显示降息概率达87%。政策制定者面临双重压力：一边 是粘性通胀，另一边是日益疲弱的就业市场。 周五亚洲和欧洲股指期货上涨0.2%-0.4%，MSCI全球股指距离10月创下的历史收盘高点仅差0.5%。美元指数走低，正朝着五周内第四次周跌迈 进。 美股在经历了一个剧烈波动的11月后，重新逼近历史高位。但在这轮反弹背后，投资者的情绪并不轻松：一边是通胀迟迟难以回落，一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery is in exclusive negotiations with Netflix to sell its film studio and HBO Max streaming service, potentially transforming the entertainment industry with a deal valued at over $50 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Details - Netflix has proposed a breakup fee of $5 billion if regulatory approval for the deal is not granted, indicating its commitment to the acquisition [1]. - The overall valuation of Warner Bros. Discovery exceeds $60 billion, with plans to divest its cable channels, including CNN, TBS, and TNT, before the sale [1]. - Netflix's bid of $28 per share surpasses Paramount Skydance's offer, which ranges from $26 to $27 per share, suggesting Netflix's competitive edge in the bidding process [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The potential merger has sparked opposition in Washington, with Republican lawmakers expressing concerns that the deal could harm consumer interests [1]. - Paramount Skydance is lobbying against the merger, arguing that it should be blocked on antitrust grounds, emphasizing the risks associated with Netflix's acquisition [3][6]. - Netflix has hired a telecommunications lawyer to argue that the acquisition will not lead to monopolistic pricing power due to the presence of alternatives like YouTube and social media platforms [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - If the deal is finalized, Netflix would gain ownership of HBO, which includes popular series such as "The Sopranos" and "The White Lotus," significantly enhancing its content library [7]. - This acquisition represents a strategic shift for Netflix, which has grown from a DVD rental service to a leading streaming company with projected revenues of $39 billion in 2024 and a market value of approximately $437 billion [7]. - Warner Bros. Discovery's iconic content will provide Netflix with a robust programming resource to maintain its competitive edge against rivals like Disney and Paramount [7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has announced a second reduction in risk factors for insurance companies' related business, enhancing the capital efficiency of equity asset allocation, thereby continuously opening up space for insurance capital to enter the market [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Adjustments - The adjustment includes a reduction in risk factors for long-term holdings of stocks in the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index from 0.3 to 0.27 [1]. - The risk factor for common stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been lowered from 0.4 to 0.36 [1]. - The risk factors for premiums and reserves in export credit insurance have also been reduced [1]. Group 2: Impact on the Real Economy - The notification aims to support the real economy by differentiating risk factors based on holding periods for investments in the CSI 300 Index, CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks, fostering patient capital and supporting technological innovation [4]. - The adjustments in risk factors for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance are intended to encourage insurance companies to increase support for foreign trade enterprises, effectively serving national strategies [4].

风险提示及免责条款 鸿海 11月 销售额8,442.8亿元台币，同比+26%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

印度储备银行（RBI）周五降息25个基点并宣布万亿卢比债券购买计划，在通胀跌至历史低点之际为经济注入流动性。央行行长 Sanjay Malhotra表示，此举旨在应对美国高关税威胁，并支撑卢比——今年亚洲表现最差的货币。 本次利率决议中，印度央行货币政策委员会一致决定将回购利率从5.50%下调至5.25%，这是六个月来首次降息。同时，央行将 在本月购买价值1万亿卢比（110亿美元）的债券，并进行50亿美元的外汇掉期操作。 消息公布后，卢比兑美元一度上涨，但随后回落，从89.78跌至89.92卢比兑1美元，延续了今年下跌5%的疲弱走势。贸易和资本 流动疲软加上美国严厉贸易关税，令卢比本周一度跌破90关口。印度10年期基准国债收益率下行6个基点至6.45%，创8月28日以 来最大降幅。 澳新银行经济学家Dhiraj Nim表示，由于美联储预计将在12月放松政策，此次降息不应过度削弱卢比，因为这将保持两个市场间 的利率差。他认为这可能是最后一次降息，央行今后将主要通过流动性支持经济。 | | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...