周五，据媒体援引知情人士消息，日本央行官员准备在本月晚些时候的政策会议上加息，前提是经济或 金融市场在此期间没有受到重大冲击。这将使日本政策利率达到1995年以来最高水平，同时央行将暗示 未来仍有进一步加息空间。 知情人士称，日本央行官员清楚市场会如何解读这些言论，暗示投资者已经做出了正确的判断。这种刻 意的沟通策略表明，央行正在为政策调整做铺垫。隔夜掉期指数显示，交易员认为本月加息的概率约为 90%。 据知情人士透露，随着美国关税的影响更加明朗，以及企业利润持续增长使得具备提高工资的空间，官 员们评估认为，经济预期实现的可能性已经增加。这些因素为加息决定提供了基本面支持。 不过知情人士表示，央行仍将持续分析最新数据和信息，直至最后一刻才做出最终政策决定。这表明尽 管加息可能性很高，但仍存在一定灵活性。 消息发布后，美元兑日元短线走低，日本国债期货小幅下跌。日本关键政府成员本周早些时候表态，如 果日本央行决定在12月提高利率，政府不会阻挠。 植田和男释放明确信号，经济条件支持加息 市场参与者对即将到来的加息预期在本周大幅增强，主要因为植田和男周一讲话中释放的明确信号。这 位央行行长表示，政策委员会将就提高利率 ...

在半导体、人工智能和清洁能源之后，美国正在为下一个"战略制高点"做准备——人形机器人。 据Politico最新报道，特朗普政府正酝酿一项新的国家级机器人战略，将"类人机器人"（Humanoid Robots）作为未来产业竞争的关键一环。美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）已开始与 多家大型科技公司高层频繁会面，并正在权衡一项可能于明年出台的行政命令，目标是加速人形机器人 的本土研发与制造。同时，美国运输部也在组织设立一个机器人工作小组，为相关政策框架铺路。 马斯克此前已经透露，特斯拉计划在明年年底前将其人形机器人Optimus的产量扩大至100万台级别。今 年早些时候，特斯拉甚至从中国下达了一笔规模巨大的线性执行器采购订单，这被视为其机器人业务即 将全面提速的信号。 如果特斯拉的这一目标达成，意味着人形机器人将从实验室阶段，真正迈入规模化工业生产的门槛。而 这对任何国家而言，都是一个无法忽视的"技术拐点"。 美国商务部发言人明确表示： "我们致力于机器人技术和先进制造业，因为它们对于将关键产业带回美国至关重要。" 这句话背后，正是美国近年来反复强调的目标：重建本土供应链、减少对外依赖， ...

作为"国产GPU第一股"，摩尔线程在科创板的首次亮相，便以惊人的涨幅点燃了市场热情，这不仅是对其技术稀缺性的直接肯定，也凸显了在人工智能浪 潮下市场对国产高端算力芯片前景的强烈看好。 摩尔线程创始人、董事长兼总经理张建中表示，公司将保持全功能GPU芯片每年一代的迭代速度，致力于打造覆盖云侧和端侧的全场景计算平台。他强 调，只要AI仍在进化，算力需求就不会是泡沫。 机构热捧的"稀缺标的" 摩尔线程在初步询价阶段展现出机构投资者的超高热情。据发行公告披露，共有267家网下投资者提交有效报价，管理配售对象达7555个，有效申购股数 高达704.06亿股，网下申购倍数达1572倍，远超年内大多数新股询价倍数水平。 参与机构阵容豪华，公募基金86家、私募基金124家、券商30家、保险机构13家均现身报价队列。其中，南方基金动用404只产品申报，累计拟申购52.85 亿股；易方达基金389只产品申报；工银瑞信、富国基金分别用345只、265只产品申报。 12月5日，摩尔线程正式登陆科创板，开盘价报650元，较114.28元的发行价暴涨468.78%。盘中最高触及688元，涨幅达到502%，市值一度超过2700亿 元。按开 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Core plans to submit its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as the first quarter of next year, aiming to complete the IPO by early 2027 [1] Group 1 - Kunlun Core is targeting a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The company aims to submit its application no later than the first quarter of next year [1] - The completion of the IPO is expected by early 2027 [1]

中华人民共和国和法兰西共和国关于加强全球治理的联合声明。（央视新闻） 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price increase this year, nearing a doubling in value, but analysts believe the current market dynamics differ fundamentally from past collapses in 1980 and 2011, suggesting a more stable supply-demand environment and a technical pattern akin to recent gold price movements [3][10]. Price Movement and Market Sentiment - Silver prices have recently retraced from a historical high of nearly $59 per ounce, dropping below $57, following an eight-day consecutive rise [1][3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that silver has fallen back below 70, suggesting a slowdown in the previous rapid price increase [1]. Historical Context - The collapses in 1980 and 2011 saw silver prices surge past $48 only to quickly retract, raising concerns among traders about a potential repeat of these patterns [4][6]. - In both historical instances, silver experienced rapid price increases followed by significant declines, which has led to current market apprehension [8]. Technical Analysis - Current market conditions show that silver has maintained support around the $48 level, unlike in previous years where it failed to do so [8]. - Analysts suggest that for a bearish double-top pattern to be confirmed, silver would need to drop below $46 [8]. Comparison with Gold - The current price behavior of silver is likened to gold's breakout process observed in late 2023 and early 2024, where gold also experienced sharp corrections after reaching new highs [10]. - Predictions indicate that silver may follow a similar trajectory, with a potential breakout expected in early 2026, similar to gold's performance [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a structural supply shortage, with predictions of a supply deficit of 95 million ounces this year, contributing to a cumulative five-year deficit of 820 million ounces [12]. - The low inventory levels in China, nearing a ten-year low, further highlight the ongoing supply constraints in the silver market [12]. - The anticipated shift to a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support silver prices in the coming year [12].

Core Insights - The "Doubao Phone" has decided to temporarily withdraw its capability to operate financial apps, citing the need for "prudent adjustments" to align technology development with industry ecology [1][2] - The launch of the Doubao AI Assistant, which allows cross-application operations, has faced significant backlash from major apps like WeChat and Taobao, indicating a conflict between AI developers and existing app ecosystems [3][4] Group 1: Doubao Phone and AI Assistant - Doubao's announcement on December 5 highlights a shift in strategy to ensure safe AI operations, particularly in financial applications [1][2] - The Doubao AI Assistant, launched on December 1, was initially well-received, leading to a surge in demand and price inflation for the associated smartphone [2][3] - Users reported issues with the AI Assistant causing abnormal logouts from WeChat and other apps, raising concerns about security and operational integrity [3][4] Group 2: Industry Response and Implications - Major apps like WeChat and Taobao have implemented measures to block the Doubao AI Assistant, reflecting a defensive stance against third-party AI operations [4][5] - The situation underscores the challenges faced by third-party AI agents in gaining system-level permissions and accessing user data, which are tightly controlled by smartphone manufacturers [5][6] - High-profile firms like Xiaomi are highlighted as having a competitive advantage due to their integrated AI systems and established ecosystems, which are difficult for new entrants to disrupt [6][7] Group 3: Future of AI and App Ecosystems - The conflict initiated by Doubao reveals a broader struggle for control over AI as a new entry point in the digital landscape, potentially reshaping user interactions with applications [7][8] - The need for third-party app authorization poses significant barriers for AI agents, as existing apps are likely to maintain strict security measures to protect user data [9][10] - The ongoing evolution of AI agents is seen as a pivotal moment in the tech industry, with major players vying for dominance in a rapidly changing environment [10]

Core Viewpoint - A record cancellation of copper inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) is pushing the copper market into a more volatile bullish phase, marking the end of the initial bull market phase and indicating a transition to a more pronounced upward trend [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant cancellation of 50,000 tons of copper warrants at LME is the largest single-day operation since 2013, reflecting increasing structural tensions in the global copper market [1]. - The cancellation has led to a 5% increase in LME three-month copper prices over the past week, with prices surpassing $11,500 per ton, reaching a new high [1]. - The U.S. market's strong demand for refined copper is causing supply shortages in other regions, prompting them to seek resources from LME [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The bullish outlook is primarily driven by severe mismatches in global inventory and the continuous attraction of refined copper to the U.S. market [2]. - The price difference between the U.S. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and LME remains significant, with COMEX copper contracts for March 2026 priced approximately $390 per ton higher than LME contracts [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Mechanism - The high annual contract premiums are forcing consumers outside the U.S. to shift from locking in high-priced long-term contracts to seeking supplies in the spot market [4]. - The LME's on-warrant inventory has dropped below the critical psychological level of 100,000 tons, which historically triggers a "backwardation" state where spot prices exceed futures prices [5][7]. - Historical data shows that when LME on-warrant inventory is below 100,000 tons, the probability of price increases rises to 57%, with a median weekly increase of 0.64% [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a "bull end game," where the tightening of refined copper markets outside the U.S. leads to continuous consumption of LME inventory [11]. - As LME prices rise, they may incentivize copper to flow from the U.S. market back to LME or to regions with higher demand for spot supplies, aiming for global market rebalancing [11]. - Despite a clear long-term bullish logic, the market may experience short-term fluctuations as not all major consumer markets have fully adapted to rising prices [12].

Core Viewpoint - The debut of Moore Threads on the STAR Market has sparked significant market enthusiasm, reflecting strong confidence in the future of domestic high-end computing chips amid the AI wave [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Moore Threads officially listed on the STAR Market on December 5, opening at 650 yuan, a staggering increase of 468.78% from the issuance price of 114.28 yuan [1] - The stock reached a peak of 688 yuan during trading, with a maximum increase of 502%, and its market capitalization briefly exceeded 270 billion yuan [1] - As of the latest update, the stock price is 576 yuan, representing a 404% increase [1] Group 2: Investment and IPO Details - The IPO attracted 267 institutional investors, with an offline subscription multiple of 1572 times, making it the largest IPO on the STAR Market this year, raising approximately 8 billion yuan [4][5] - Early investors, such as Peixian Qianyao, saw returns exceeding 6262 times their initial investment, highlighting the company's remarkable capital appeal [6] - The company completed its IPO process in just 158 days, showcasing a rapid pace in the capital market [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Despite high market enthusiasm, Moore Threads is currently operating at a loss, with projected revenues of 438 million yuan and a net loss of 1.618 billion yuan for 2024 [7] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, increasing from 46.1 million yuan in 2022 to 438 million yuan in 2024, but continues to face significant losses due to high R&D expenditures [7] - The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 122 times, significantly higher than that of international GPU giants like NVIDIA, indicating a premium valuation based on future growth potential [4][7] Group 4: Technological Positioning - Moore Threads is positioned as the only domestic company capable of functionally competing with NVIDIA, utilizing its self-developed MUSA architecture to achieve breakthroughs in AI computing, graphics rendering, physical simulation, and video processing on a single chip [8][9] - The company aims to create a universal computing acceleration platform to support various AI applications and scientific research needs [9] Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Potential - The company plans to invest in three major projects through its IPO proceeds, focusing on AI integrated chips, next-generation graphics chips, and AI SoC chips to meet diverse computing needs [10] - The global GPU market is projected to reach 3.62 trillion yuan by 2029, with China's market expected to grow significantly, indicating a robust future for domestic GPU manufacturers [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by concerns over global supply shortages, exacerbated by Mercuria's announcement to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses, potentially pushing prices to historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - Copper prices have increased by over 30% this year, with a notable spike attributed to supply disruptions in major producing countries like Indonesia and Chile, alongside rising demand [2][4]. - On December 2, Mercuria canceled or marked over 40,000 tons of copper for delivery from LME warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan, indicating a growing demand for physical copper [1][3]. - The LME copper trading price rebounded significantly, reaching a record high of $11,540 per ton, marking the third consecutive day of record closing prices [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Reactions - The surge in copper prices is linked to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which have led to increased imports and a potential global supply shortage in the first quarter of the following year [3][4]. - The cancellation of warehouse receipts at LME reached a record high of 50,725 tons, reflecting the heightened demand and supply constraints [1][2]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing tariff threats will continue to drive prices upward, with a significant impact on global inventory levels [4][6]. Group 3: Diverging Market Perspectives - While some analysts, like those from Goldman Sachs, express caution regarding the sustainability of high copper prices, citing sufficient global supply to meet demand, others, like Mercuria, maintain a bullish outlook [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a surplus of approximately 500,000 tons in copper supply this year, suggesting that the recent price increases are largely based on future market expectations rather than current fundamentals [6]. - Mercuria's leadership emphasizes that current high prices may soon appear low if trends continue, predicting a significant increase in U.S. copper imports by early 2026 [7].