对冲基金经理雷伊・达利欧发文警告，曾推动华尔街科技股走高的人工智能（AI）热潮目前已进入泡 沫初期阶段。他指出，2025年美国股市表现显著落后于非美股市及黄金资产。"显然，相较于美国股 票，投资者更愿意配置非美股票；同理，他们也更倾向于持有非美债券，而非美国债券与美元现 金。""当然，未来美联储的政策走向以及生产力增速，都存在巨大的不确定性。" 达利欧表示。"种种 迹象表明，新任美联储主席及联邦公开市场委员会，大概率会倾向于压低名义利率与实际利率。这一举 措虽会对资产价格形成支撑，但也会进一步吹大泡沫。" 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

高通公司正凭借其新款 X2 Plus 处理器，进一步深耕作为个人电脑核心的处理器市场。 X2 Plus 处理器 提供两个版本：一款具备 10 个计算核心，另一款具备 6 个核心。该系列内置了性能强大的神经网络处 理单元（NPU），旨在加速 AI 软件的运行。 高通处理器的设计初衷是为笔记本用户提供 AI 电脑体 验，使其能够更快速地响应指令，并拥有更长的续航时间，减少对充电电源的依赖。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

地缘政治动荡曾是油价飙升最可靠的催化剂，但这一旧有逻辑正在被新的市场现实彻底改写。随着美国 页岩油革命彻底重塑全球能源供应版图，以及受制裁石油"影子市场"的常态化，传统的地缘政治风险溢 价逻辑已发生根本性逆转。 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总统特朗普、国防部长 赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记 者会。据环球时报综合伊朗媒体1日报道，伊朗两个省份发生骚乱，已造成至少3人死亡、13人受伤。 据《华尔街日报》作者 Spencer Jakab 5日撰文分析，在过去，类似的事件——如23年前委内瑞拉针对前 总统查韦斯的未遂政变，或1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命——曾分别导致油价在数月内飙升近40%和150%。 然而，面对当前的局势，原油市场反应冷淡。原油价格刚刚经历了史无前例的连续三年下跌，且随着 OPEC逐步退出自愿减产措施，市场仍处于严重的供应过剩状态。如今的委内瑞拉原油产量仅占全球的 不到1%，约为每日90万桶，与过去超过3%的市场份额不可同日而语。委内瑞拉和伊朗虽为OPEC创始 成员国，但其对市场的影响力已大幅削弱 ...

Core Insights - The ISM Manufacturing Index for December in the U.S. is reported at 47.9, which is below the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for December stands at 47.7, slightly up from the previous value of 47.4 [1] - The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index for December is at 58.5, close to the expected 58.7 and unchanged from the previous value of 58.5 [1] - The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index for December is reported at 44.9, down from the previous value of 44 [1]

中国股票的吸引力正在持续升温。 高盛Hui Shan策略师团队在最新发布的策略报告中对中国资产发出强烈的看多信号，建议投资者在区域背景下"超配"中国股票。该行预测，受企 业盈利增长和估值修复的双重驱动，中国股市在2026年和2027年将迎来稳健的牛市行情，预计年均上涨幅度将达到15%至20%。1月5日，A股全 天高开高走，沪指实现12连阳，创1993年以来最长连涨纪录，且重返4000点上方。 尽管面临复杂的外部贸易环境，高盛对中国出口部门的竞争力保持乐观，这也是其看好中国上市公司的重要逻辑之一。报告指出，中国出口商已 成功实现市场多元化，新兴市场（EM）成为重要的增长点。 高盛分析，中国强大的制造业竞争力结合汇率优势，使得中国产品在许多国家（尤其是新兴市场）的进口份额显著增加。更重要的是，中国企业 的"出海"战略正在从单纯的产品出口转向全球化布局，中间品和资本品的出口显著上升，这表明中国制造商正在全球范围内建立工厂和供应链。 在这份题为《2026年中国展望：探索新增长引擎》的报告中，高盛维持对A股和H股的"超配"评级。高盛认为，中国股市的上涨动力将主要来自两 方面：一是企业盈利的实质性改善，预计2026年和2 ...

Core Insights - The European electricity market is experiencing unprecedented "negative pricing" due to a surge in renewable energy output overwhelming grid capacity, highlighting structural imbalances in supply and demand as well as lagging infrastructure [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, Germany recorded 573 hours of negative pricing, a significant increase of 25% from the previous year, while Spain, which first experienced negative pricing in 2024, saw its negative pricing periods double in 2025 [1] - The rapid growth of renewable energy generation is colliding with stagnant electricity demand and ongoing grid bottlenecks, leading to a situation where excess power cannot be absorbed by demand [1][2] Group 2: Infrastructure Challenges - The expansion of renewable energy is outpacing the necessary upgrades to the electricity grid and the construction of battery storage facilities, resulting in a mismatch that hampers the grid's ability to respond to variable weather conditions [2] - The reliance on fossil fuels for backup support during periods of low renewable output contributes to extreme market volatility, characterized by frequent negative pricing during oversupply and sharp price spikes during shortages [2] Group 3: Trading Opportunities - The normalization of negative pricing, while pressuring renewable energy developers' revenues, is creating new profit opportunities for traders who are increasingly betting on battery storage [3] - Traders are adopting strategies to buy electricity when prices fall below zero and sell during scarcity, capitalizing on the price volatility driven by weather-dependent renewable energy supply [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate that the current imbalance is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, with price differentials potentially persisting into 2026 [4] - Efforts to promote further renewable energy development will face the reality of slowly recovering electricity demand, which may lead to increased use of natural gas and coal to meet additional load requirements, complicating market pricing mechanisms [4]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari：就业市场明显降温，通胀仍然过高。 ...

数据已经显示出恶化迹象：2025年12月，委内瑞拉原油出口已降至50万桶/日。由于出口受阻且国内储 油罐爆满，PDVSA（委内瑞拉国家石油公司）已被迫要求合资企业减少生产，至少20万至30万桶/日的 产能已被关闭。 汇丰与高盛的最新研报揭示了一个残酷的现实：委内瑞拉石油行业的复苏将是极度缓慢、昂贵且局部 的。 据新华社报道，美国白宫已要求美国各大石油公司对委内瑞拉大量投资，修复委内瑞拉原油开采基础设 施。 尽管特朗普承诺投入巨资，且该国名义上拥有全球最大储量，但这些"纸面原油"大部分在商业上并不具 备开采价值，市场不应期待任何"V型"反转。 据追风交易台，1月5日，汇丰和高盛的分析指出，短期内，由于制裁和混乱，石油产量甚至可能面临进 一步下跌的风险。对于投资者而言，委内瑞拉的变局短期内不会引发油价飙升，因为全球市场已严重供 过于求；但长期来看，如果数百亿美元资金真的到位，其潜在的产量回归将成为2027年后压制油价的核 心空头因素。 由于制裁和库存限制，短期产量面临"关井"风险 虽然市场在讨论复产，但汇丰指出，委内瑞拉石油行业目前的实际走向是萎缩而非扩张。在2026年1月3 日马杜罗政权倒台后，美国并未立即解除 ...

Group 1: Core Trends in Technology Industry - Goldman Sachs identifies ten key trends in the technology sector for 2026, focusing on AI servers, optical communication, foldable iPhones, semiconductors, smart driving, and satellite communication, revealing structural investment opportunities driven by technological innovation and supply chain changes [1] - The AI server market is expected to see explosive growth, with shipments projected to increase from 19,000 units in 2025 to 50,000 units in 2026, driven by the rising penetration of ASIC chips, which is expected to reach 40% by 2026 [2] - The optical communication sector will benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure, with demand for optical transceivers expected to surge as data centers upgrade from 400G to 800G/1.6T [3] Group 2: Key Developments in Specific Technologies - Liquid cooling technology is anticipated to see a significant increase in penetration, particularly in the ASIC AI server domain, as supply chains adapt to higher thermal challenges from increased computing power [4] - ODM manufacturers with strong commitments or capacity plans in the U.S. are expected to outperform the market, with companies like Hon Hai, Wistron, and Wiwynn favored due to their robust R&D capabilities and vertical integration [5] - The PC market faces significant challenges in 2026, with only global leaders like Lenovo expected to maintain resilience due to stronger supply chain bargaining power and exposure to high-end products [6] Group 3: Consumer Electronics and Semiconductor Insights - Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is projected to ship between 11 million and 35 million units in 2026, becoming a strong catalyst in the smartphone market, with high-end foldable models driving growth for related component suppliers [7] - The PCB market remains solid, particularly for high-end CCL and PCB suppliers, benefiting from the growth in AI server shipments and increased ASIC penetration, with average selling prices expected to rise by 20-30% annually in 2026 and 2027 [8] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth, driven by local leaders' expansion plans and the rise of domestic GPU suppliers, with AI technology innovation and new demands from edge devices being key growth drivers [9] Group 4: Emerging Technologies and Future Outlook - The smart driving trend is expected to deepen in 2026, with the proliferation of urban navigation-assisted driving and Robotaxi services driving growth for chipsets, software, and sensor suppliers [10] - The low Earth orbit satellite industry is entering an acceleration phase, with increased rocket payload capacities and reduced launch costs expected to speed up satellite launches, alongside upgrades in satellite specifications [11]

美国国债周一迎来一周以来首次上涨，原油价格下跌缓解了市场对持续通胀的担忧，推动收益率结束连续上行态势。 1月5日，美国国债收益率小幅下行，10年期美债收益率下跌2个基点至4.17%，对货币政策更为敏感的2年期收益率下降1个基点至3.46%。与此同 时，市场担忧供应可能增加，原油价格承压走低。据央视新闻，特朗普称，将让美国大型石油公司进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元，修复严重破 损的基础设施，尤其是石油基础设施，并开始创造收益。 原油市场面临供应过剩压力，油价承压下行，进一步缓解了市场对通胀持续升温的担忧。这强化了投资者对美联储货币政策更为宽松的预期。货 币市场目前已完全消化2025年降息两次、每次25个基点的预期，并计入约25%概率的第三次降息。 尽管地缘政治风险通常有利于国债等避险资产，但周一美国股指期货仍在科技板块领涨带动下整体走高，反映出市场更关注流动性宽松预期下的 风险资产配置机会。投资者在权衡地缘风险与科技股盈利前景后，当前更倾向于布局成长性资产。 全球债市普遍上涨 周一，全球多数主要市场债券价格普遍上涨，而原油价格则因供应过剩担忧而下跌。市场预期，一旦委内瑞拉石油产量恢复，可能逆转该国持续 近20年的 ...