得益于光电路交换机（OCS）和共封装光学（CPO）的强劲需求，光模块巨头Lumentum不仅交出了一份营收利润双超预期的成绩单，更给出了高达 85%同比增长的下季度指引，向市场证明其在AI算力基础设施中的关键地位。 2月3日，全球光学和光子技术龙头企业Lumentum Holdings公布了2026财年第二季度财务业绩。财报显示，截至2025年12月27日的季度内，公司净营收 达到6.655亿美元，同比暴增65.5%，触及指引区间高端；Non-GAAP营业利润率达到25.2%，同比扩张超过1700个基点，盈利能力大幅改善远超此前预 期。 CEO Michael Hurlston对业绩表现给予高度评价："Lumentum实现了出色的第二季度表现，营收同比增长超65%，Non-GAAP营业利润率扩张超1700个 基点。营收触及指引高端，而盈利能力和每股收益的扩张远超此前预期，充分展现了我们业务模型的杠杆效应。" 更值得关注的是公司在AI基础设施领域的强劲势头。其中OCS业务正在快速扩张以满足超常规的客户需求，订单积压已超过4亿美元；而在CPO领域， 公司新获得一笔数亿美元的增量订单，将在2027年上半年交付。Hu ...

Core Viewpoint - The software industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with the S&P North American Software Index dropping for three consecutive weeks and a 15% decline in January, marking the largest monthly drop since October 2008 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Impact - The current market sentiment is characterized by panic selling, described as a "get me out" mentality, with no signs of stabilization [3]. - The release of Anthropic's productivity tool for corporate lawyers has intensified fears, leading to a sharp decline in legal software and publishing company stocks [1][7]. - There is a growing concern that advancements in AI technology may erode the competitive advantages of traditional software companies, leading to fears of being completely replaced [7]. Group 2: Private Credit Exposure - The software sector's decline poses risks not only to the stock market but also to the private credit market, with software companies representing about 20% of the portfolios of Business Development Companies (BDCs), totaling approximately $100 billion [3][9]. - As software company valuations plummet, private credit institutions face pressure to reassess their balance sheets, potentially tightening credit availability, which could further squeeze struggling software companies [5][10]. Group 3: Financial Analysis and Projections - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that if AI disrupts corporate borrowers aggressively, the default rate in U.S. private credit could soar to 13% [12]. - Stress tests conducted by Morgan Stanley suggest that under a scenario where 33% of companies default, tracked BDCs could face losses of $22 billion, reducing net asset value by 11% [13]. - In a more severe scenario with a 75% default rate, cumulative net losses could approach $50 billion, diluting book value by 24% [13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Valuation Challenges - The divergence in market performance is stark, with semiconductor companies benefiting from the AI supercycle while software companies are viewed as major losers [5]. - Despite some companies passing earnings tests, the overall pass rate is declining, indicating a harsh competitive environment within the industry [7]. - The market is struggling to assign reasonable valuations to software companies due to the uncertainty brought by AI, complicating the identification of attractive buying opportunities [7].

沃尔玛市值周二突破1万亿美元，成为首家达到这一里程碑的传统零售商，跻身此前由科技巨头主导的 精英俱乐部。这家总部位于阿肯色州的零售巨头过去两年股价涨幅超过一倍，表现优于标普500指数。 目前共有九家美国上市公司市值超过1万亿美元，其中沃尔玛与伯克希尔哈撒韦是美国仅有的两家市值 超过1万亿美元的非科技公司，其余均为科技企业。 这一成就标志着沃尔玛十年转型的成功。该公司投入数百亿美元发展电商业务，目前已成为亚马逊的有 力竞争对手。其在线业务去年首次实现盈利，预计本月公布业绩时年度电商销售额将达到约1400亿美 元。 沃尔玛股价周二收涨2.9%至127.71美元，市值达到1.018万亿美元。这一突破恰逢新任首席执行官John Furner上任首周，他接替执掌公司逾十年的Doug McMillon。 电商业务成为增长引擎 沃尔玛的转型核心在于电商业务的快速扩张。分析师预计，该公司本月公布业绩时年度营收将超过7000 亿美元。不过据Visible Alpha数据，亚马逊的营收预计将首次超过沃尔玛。 尽管如此，沃尔玛在电商领域的进展显著。公司目前可向95%的美国家庭提供当日送达服务。去年，其 电商业务作为独立部门首次实现 ...

Anthropic新工具掀软件股抛售，美股科技板块、尤其是软件股，遭遇去年4月以来最惨抛售。资金涌入小盘股、价值股以及黄金等。纳指跌超1%，罗素小盘 股指逆市收涨0.3%。科技七姐妹大跌1.5%，英伟达一度跌5%。绩后Paypal暴跌约20%、AMD盘后大跌超7%。 美债收益率小幅走低，10年期美债收益率下行0.6个基点至4.266%。美元跌0.15%。 加密货币盘中暴跌。比特币一度跌超7%、跌破去年4月低点，以太坊一度暴跌约9%、逼近2100美元，尾盘均显著反弹，但仍下跌。 现货黄金大反弹6.2%，一度逼近5000美元。白银日内涨幅一度达12%，随后涨幅回落、仍涨逾7%。原油日内涨超2%，报道称美军在阿拉伯海击落了一架伊 朗无人机。 亚洲时段，沪指涨1%，太空光伏、算力硬件爆发，寒武纪跌超9%，恒科指跌超1%，互联网平台盘中齐跳水，沪银暴跌16%。 要闻 华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 中国 中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见。 中国有色金属工业协会：研究将"铜精矿"纳入国家储备。 税收传闻"突袭"港股！机构解读：过度推演，可 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 英伟达接近达成一份协议，将在本轮投资中对OpenAI出资200亿美元。（彭博） 风险提示及免责条款 ...

人工智能领域的一次常规更新引发了法律软件板块的剧烈震荡。 Anthropic上周五为其Claude Cowork AI代理推出的法律插件，在周二触发了相关股票的集体暴跌，多只个股跌幅超过15%。 这家Claude AI聊天机器人的开发商推出的新工具能够执行多项文书工作，包括追踪合规事项和审阅法律文档。尽管这次更新 在法律领域之外并未引起太大关注，却在周二引发了与法律行业相关的软件和出版类股票的抛售潮。 周二的重挫个股包括：荷兰威科集团重挫13%，英国励讯集团下跌14%，LegalZoom.com暴跌近20%，汤森路透下跌15%。这 些股票在2026年迄今均已累计下跌至少20%，年初的渐进式下滑在Anthropic法律插件发布后急剧加速。 （LegalZoom.com暴跌近20%） 分析认为，尽管AI颠覆威胁已被纳入华尔街对2026年的展望，但投资者对AI代理带来的冲击仍保持高度警惕。 Claude在专业领域的市场地位 分析认为随着AI技术的持续进步，法律出版行业的投资者信心可能进一步受损。 据报道，2025年众多风险投资公司竞相为法律科技初创企业注资，显示出资本市场对这些以AI为核心的公司进一步颠覆传统 法律 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of a new automation tool by AI startup Anthropic has triggered a panic sell-off in software stocks, leading to significant declines in major U.S. stock indices, particularly affecting the software sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index fell over 1.6% at one point, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped approximately 2.4%, breaking the previous day's rebound momentum [1]. - Legal software and data service companies were hit hardest, with Thomson Reuters (TRI) experiencing a drop of 20.7% and Legalzoom.com (LZ) also falling over 20% [1]. - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) hit a new low, declining 5.6% on the day and marking a cumulative drop of over 14% over six consecutive trading days [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly concerned that software companies' core businesses may be threatened by AI technologies, as highlighted by Morgan Stanley analysts who noted intensified competition in the legal sector due to Anthropic's new features [3][6]. - The panic has spread to Business Development Companies (BDCs) that hold significant exposure to the software industry, leading to declines in their stock prices [3]. - The overall sentiment has shifted from cautious to apocalyptic regarding software stocks, with Jefferies traders coining the term "SaaSpocalypse" to describe the situation [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - During the current earnings season, only 71% of S&P 500 software companies reported quarterly revenues exceeding Wall Street expectations, compared to 85% for the overall tech sector [5][9]. - Despite a strong earnings report from Microsoft, concerns over slowing cloud sales growth led to a 10% drop in its stock price, reflecting broader industry challenges [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Anthropic's unique position as a developer of customizable AI models for the legal industry has raised market concerns, as it poses a threat to traditional legal news and data services [7]. - Other companies, such as Legora and Harvey AI, have also been developing tools for the legal sector, but Anthropic's capabilities may disrupt their business models [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that 2023 will be a pivotal year for determining which companies will emerge as winners or losers in the AI landscape, emphasizing the importance of avoiding potential losers [5][7]. - The software sector is currently viewed as oversold, with some analysts predicting that it may rebound, although establishing a new foundation may take time [11].

英伟达CEO黄仁勋否认与OpenAI关系紧张传闻，确认将参与OpenAI下轮融资并称其为"史上最大规模私募融资"。 2月3日周二，黄仁勋在接受CNBC Jim Cramer采访时明确表示公司投资OpenAI的计划仍在"按计划推进"，否认了近期有关 双方关系紧张的市场传闻。他强调： 完全没有争议，这些说法纯属无稽之谈......没有任何戏剧性，一切都在按计划推进......我们非常乐意与OpenAI合 作。 黄仁勋进一步确认，英伟达将参与OpenAI下一轮融资，他称这将是"史上最大规模的私募融资"。周一Altman在社交平台上 回应了有关公司与英伟达关系的议论： 去年9月，黄仁勋与OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman共同宣布了一份意向书，英伟达计划分批向这家AI实验室投资最高1000亿 美元。根据协议，OpenAI将基于英伟达技术构建AI基础设施，电力需求可达10吉瓦。 但近几个月，Altman表示OpenAI没有足够的芯片来满足ChatGPT等产品的需求，若能获得更多算力可产生更多收入。 OpenAI与英伟达的竞争对手达成芯片交易，包括AMD、博通和Cerebras。这一系列动作引发了市场对双方关系的猜 ...

比特币周二跌至特朗普重返白宫以来的最低谷，这一标志性数字资产自美国总统特朗普当选以来积累的涨幅被完全抹去。虽然特朗普政府展现出对加密货币 的友好姿态，机构采用率激增，但比特币自2025年10月创下历史高点以来已累计跌超40%。 虽然此后比特币很快重上7.4万美元，但进入2026年以来已累跌超15%。投资者对经济逆风的担忧持续升温，股市在低风险偏好和AI泡沫担忧中挣扎反弹， 加密货币市场情绪跌至谷底。香港加密期权平台SignalPlus合伙人Augustine Fan表示："加密货币情绪正触及底部，市场正以熊市模式交易。" 杠杆清算加剧抛压 比特币周二跌破了2025年4月7日跌破7.45万美元所创的年内低点，当时特朗普公布的所谓对等关税计划冲击了全球金融市场。 FalconX高级衍生品交易员Bohan Jiang表示："许多交易员试图抄底，押注反弹至80,000美元上方。随着比特币持续走低，大量头寸被清算，给价格带来压 力。" CoinMarketCap数据显示，2月3日周二美股午盘时段，加密货币普遍加速下跌。比特币一度跌破7.3万美元，较亚市早盘7.91万美元上方的日内高位跌超6000 美元、跌近8%，刷新2 ...

Core Insights - Pfizer demonstrated robust operational resilience during its strategic transformation phase, with total revenue reaching $62.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a 6% growth in core business excluding COVID-related products [1][4] - The company maintained its 2026 performance guidance while revealing an active product pipeline, expecting to initiate approximately 20 key clinical trials in 2026, laying the foundation for long-term growth [1][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $17.6 billion, a 1% decrease from Q4 2024, while full-year revenue decreased by 2% to $62.6 billion [2] - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.66, a 5% increase year-over-year, and for the full year, it reached $3.22, up 4% [2][3] - The adjusted sales cost ratio improved to 24.2%, down from 25.8% in 2024, indicating enhanced cost management [8] Business Segments - Non-COVID product lines showed strong structural growth, with cardiovascular and vaccine segments leading the way; Eliquis generated $8 billion in revenue, a growth of 8% [4][5] - The oncology business achieved $16.8 billion in revenue, an 8% increase, with key products like Ibrance and Xtandi maintaining strong market positions despite competition [6] - COVID-related product revenues significantly declined, with Comirnaty and Paxlovid generating $4.4 billion and $2.4 billion respectively, down 18% and 59% year-over-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Pfizer completed the acquisition of Metsera for approximately $7 billion, marking its entry into the obesity and metabolic disease treatment market [9] - The company is advancing its obesity pipeline, with promising results from the clinical trials of its long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist [10] - Multiple oncology products received regulatory breakthroughs, enhancing the competitive edge of Pfizer's oncology portfolio [11][12] 2026 Outlook - Pfizer projects 2026 revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, including approximately $5 billion from COVID-related products [13] - The company plans to maintain a focus on reducing debt levels and balancing its capital structure, with no share buybacks planned for 2026 [13]