英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫（Martin Wolf）刚刚发表了一篇颇具警示意味的文章， 聚焦即将可能执掌美联储的凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。这篇文章标题直白地提出疑问：在解读"沃什时 代的美联储"时，我们看到的究竟是什么？ 沃尔夫是研究宏观经济的权威人物。他长期关注央行独立性、财政与货币政策的边界问题，在2008年金 融危机之后，其观点对政策界和市场都产生过重要影响。这一次，他把目光投向了这位被特朗普选中的 美联储主席候选人，试图从沃什过去的言论和近期的立场转变中，找出未来货币政策的走向线索。 文章开门见山地抛出一个尖锐的问题：如果沃什获得确认担任美联储主席，他究竟会是一个通胀鹰派， 还是特朗普的"贵宾犬"？这个问题并非空穴来风。沃什在货币政策上的反复表态，以及他对美联储更 广泛职责的看法，都显示他是个强硬派。但他最近关于通胀前景的表态，以及特朗普选择他这一事实， 却又指向完全相反的方向。 更深层的担忧在于：沃什到底是一个有信念、有判断力的人，还是一个政治风向标？当共和党执政时支 持宽松货币政策，而民主党执政时又转向紧缩——这种"双重标准"可能给美国乃至全球经济带来不可预 测的风险。 ...

摩根大通首次发布Waymo估值模型，预计这家Alphabet旗下的自动驾驶公司将在未来五年实现爆发式增长。该行预测，到2030年Waymo的年度订 单量将从2025年的1500万次飙升至2.77亿次，复合年增长率高达79%，总预订额将接近60亿美元，占据美国网约车市场约6%的份额。 这一预测发布之际，Waymo刚刚完成160亿美元的融资，估值达到1260亿美元，距离上一轮56亿美元融资仅相隔15个月。Waymo在公告中表示， 新资金将使公司"以前所未有的速度向前推进"。在此期间，Waymo的每周付费订单量已从15万次增长近三倍至超过40万次，2025年全年完成1500 万次订单。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth在2月3日发布的报告中认为，Waymo的车辆规模预计将从2025年底的不到3000辆扩张至2030年 底的超过35000辆，复合年增长率达67%。2026年，Waymo车队规模有望翻倍至约5725辆，提供超过3500万次订单，创造超过8亿美元的总预订 额。 该行认为，自动驾驶将扩大整体市场规模，Waymo的大部分增长将来自增量市场，但也会从Uber和Lyft等传统网约车平台夺取部 ...

全球最大稳定币发行商Tether的5000亿美元估值目标遭遇投资者抵制，随后大幅下调融资规模预期。 Tether原计划融资150亿至200亿美元，但顾问方目前考虑将融资额降至最低50亿美元，凸显市场对其天 价估值的质疑。 据英国金融时报周三报道，Tether首席执行官Paolo Ardoino在接受采访时淡化融资规模，称最初的150亿 至200亿美元目标是"误解"。他表示，"这个数字不是我们的目标，而是我们准备出售的最大额度。如果 我们一股不卖，我们也会非常高兴。"这一表态与该公司去年启动的雄心勃勃的融资计划形成鲜明对 比。 投资者对5000亿美元估值表示担忧，这一估值将使Tether跻身OpenAI、Anthropic、SpaceX和字节跳动等 顶级私营公司行列。尽管Tether去年利润约100亿美元，但2025年利润同比下降23%，盈利能力面临考 验。 加密货币市场在过去六个月大幅下跌，交易员纷纷撤离投机性资产，进一步削弱了投资者对高估值加密 项目的兴趣。 估值争议成融资最大障碍 据知情人士透露，Tether的顾问在与潜在投资者接触后，面临明显阻力。5000亿美元的估值目标引发广 泛质疑，投资者私下对这一 ...

松壑/文 从月初的元宝红包链接在各大微信群、朋友圈的疯狂铺开，到如今微信正式公告开始封禁导流至元宝的 外部链接，整个过程用了短短四天时间。 腾讯组织机器内部之间的分歧与摇摆，第一次以产品策略变化的形式被外界真切感知。 动员太满、变化太快、节奏过于完整，以至于许多用户开始怀疑，这是不是腾讯 为了导流元宝而提前 策划好的一场剧本。 在这个剧本猜想中，腾讯先大胆启用微信导流，待到快速的红包效应让元宝用户数据增长到阶段目标 后，紧急叫停再以微信出面来重新扮演"尊重用户体验"的Flag。 一边是对增长的期待。窗口期短，AI入口要抢，能拉多少算多少。红包、裂变、社交链叠加，是最快 见效的办法； 另一边是对平台价值的恪守。微信群是基础设施，是工作场、家庭场、生活场的混合体，一旦被营销机 制长期侵占，伤的不是一个产品，是整张网的秩序感。 这两套逻辑，本来就不在同一条轨道上。所以这一次的"前几天放，后面封"，与其说是剧情反转，不如 说是换了一只脚在踩油门，另一只脚在踩刹车。 如果这是剧本，那协同成本会高得离谱。增长、产品、平台治理、风控、法务、公关，得在同一个时间 点，对同一件事达成同一种默契。 放多少，放多久，什么时候收，怎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share photovoltaic sector, particularly the space photovoltaic concept, is driven by news of Elon Musk's team secretly visiting multiple Chinese photovoltaic companies to explore potential collaborations [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 4, the A-share photovoltaic sector experienced a strong rally, with JinkoSolar hitting a 20% limit up, and several other companies like ZERUN New Energy and Zhonglai Co. also reaching their daily limits [2]. - The market is reacting positively to the potential collaboration between Musk's team and Chinese photovoltaic firms, which are known for their core manufacturing capabilities and cost advantages [3]. Group 2: Musk's Exploration and Technology Focus - Musk's team has reportedly focused on advanced technology routes, particularly heterojunction and perovskite solar cells, during their visits to Chinese companies [3][4]. - The exploration includes various segments such as equipment, silicon wafers, and battery components, indicating a comprehensive interest in the photovoltaic supply chain [3]. Group 3: Space Photovoltaic Concept - The space photovoltaic concept is gaining traction as it aligns with the growing demand for AI computing power and space exploration, making it a new focal point in the capital market [4]. - Musk's announcement of plans to build a photovoltaic base with an annual capacity of 200 GW to support ground data centers and space AI satellites has further fueled interest in this sector [6]. Group 4: Future Projections and Industry Outlook - Research institutions are optimistic about the long-term potential of space photovoltaics, with expectations of a significant increase in demand due to the deployment of millions of computing satellites by SpaceX [8]. - Analysts suggest that the energy needs for AI data centers will double by 2035, and space photovoltaics could provide a sustainable solution to meet this demand [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's significant AI infrastructure financing needs are pushing Wall Street banks to their limits, leading them to securitize and sell off hundreds of billions in loans related to Oracle's data center projects to mitigate risk exposure [1][2]. Group 1: Financing and Ratings - Banks are under pressure to offload existing risks to continue lending, prompting them to seek investment-grade ratings for construction loans tied to Oracle's projects [2][3]. - At least $56 billion in loans for data center construction have received investment-grade ratings, supported by future lease revenues from Oracle's $300 billion deal with OpenAI [1][2]. - The push for ratings is seen as transformative, opening new funding sources from insurance companies and pension funds that previously avoided high-risk non-operational assets [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - Despite the ratings, investor concerns are rising regarding Oracle's aggressive AI spending and increasing debt levels, with borrowing costs for new projects nearing junk bond levels [4][5]. - Some investors are hesitant to engage with Oracle's loans, anticipating better returns from upcoming offerings, which has led banks to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers [5]. Group 3: Oracle's Expansion Plans - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion by 2026 through bond and equity refinancing to meet cloud infrastructure demands from major clients like AMD, Meta, and Nvidia [6]. - The company currently holds approximately $95 billion in outstanding debt, making it one of the largest corporate bond issuers outside the financial sector [6]. Group 4: Market Risks and Short Selling - Oracle's shift from a "light asset" software company to a "heavy asset" cloud infrastructure provider has raised market concerns about its financial stability [7]. - Notably, short-seller Michael Burry has criticized Oracle's unnecessary heavy asset expansion, labeling it a "pure AI bubble vehicle" and highlighting its vulnerability due to high debt levels [7].

OpenAI在AI聊天机器人市场的主导地位正在被竞争对手蚕食。移动应用数据显示，ChatGPT在美国日活跃用户中的市场份额在过去一年从69.1% 大幅下滑至45.3%，而谷歌的Gemini和马斯克的Grok则实现快速增长，市场格局正在重塑。 2月4日，据移动应用数据分析和情报服务公司Apptopia向Big Technology提供的数据显示，在2025年1月至2026年1月期间，Gemini的市场份额从 14.7%攀升至25.1%，Grok则从1.6%激增至15.2%。这一变化表明，经过一年的激烈竞争，AI聊天机器人市场已从一家独大转向多强争霸。 尽管份额下降，ChatGPT的绝对用户数仍在增长。分析公司Similarweb的数据显示，ChatGPT在桌面和移动网页端的访问量从38亿次增至57亿 次，增幅50%。但Gemini的增速更为惊人，访问量从2.677亿次飙升至20亿次，增幅达647%。 与此同时，用户呈现多平台使用趋势，20%用户使用两款以上应用，且使用时长差异显著——Claude用户日均使用时长已从10分钟增至30分钟以 上，显示市场正走向差异化竞争。 ChatGPT增长放缓，竞争对手加速追赶 ...

马斯克旗下两大私有巨头正式合并，市场目光迅速转向了拼图的最后一块——特斯拉。 据追风交易台消息，SpaceX近日宣布已收购马斯克旗下的人工智能公司xAI。此举正值SpaceX计划于今年年中进行首次IPO之际。汇丰最新研报显 示，这笔交易将使合并后的实体估值达到约1.25万亿美元，其中SpaceX估值约1万亿美元，xAI估值约2500亿美元。 马斯克在SpaceX网站上确认了这一消息，称此举旨在打造"地球上（及地球外）最雄心勃勃的垂直整合创新引擎"。他在一篇博客文章中进一步阐 述，其宏大目标是通过卫星网络"利用太阳的全部能量"来驱动AI应用，从而"加速人类的未来"。 这一重磅消息迅速在资本市场引发连锁反应，市场目光转向特斯拉。而后，预测市场Polymarket上关于"特斯拉与SpaceX在6月30日前宣布合 并"的合约概率从消息确认前的15%左右一度飙升至24%左右。 尽管特斯拉股价在周二收盘时仅微涨，但关于其未来归属的讨论已成为华尔街最热门的话题。 | Polymarket | Q Search polymarket 0 How it works | | | --- | --- | --- | | ් | P ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future, especially with the nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair, amidst a resilient U.S. economy and rising inflation risks [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The combination of loose financial conditions, relaxed monetary policy, and upcoming large-scale fiscal stimulus (OBBA Act) may lead to a nominal GDP growth of 5-6% in the U.S. this year [1]. - The Dallas Fed tracks Q4 GDP growth at 2.49%, while the New York Fed's real-time forecast is at 2.74%, achieved even during a prolonged government shutdown [1]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed acknowledged stronger economic growth and shifted its risk balance from employment targets, describing economic activity as "robust" rather than "moderate" [3]. - The Fed Chair Powell indicated that the policy rate is no longer in a restrictive zone, with the current rate close to the estimated neutral rate of around 3.25% [3]. Dollar Dynamics - The dollar has depreciated approximately 11% over the past year, but with the Fed likely to remain cautious in the coming months, dollar shorts should be wary at current valuation levels [3][10]. - The weak dollar theme has been driven by various factors, including the U.S. Treasury's engagement with the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which has contributed to the dollar's decline [8]. Future Fed Leadership - Waller's nomination as the next Fed Chair is seen as a response to political dynamics, with him being viewed as a more establishment candidate and potentially facing less resistance during confirmation [6]. - Historically, Waller has been more hawkish than other candidates, prioritizing inflation control over employment considerations, and is expected to implement rate cuts only when absolutely necessary [6][7]. Market Implications - The current economic conditions and the Fed's emphasis on independence suggest that the future of the Fed may be less susceptible to political interference, which is viewed positively by investors who value central bank independence for global financial stability [10].

英特尔宣布将开始制造图形处理器(GPU)，正式进军这一由英伟达主导的芯片市场。这标志着这家传统 CPU巨头在新任CEO领导下的重大战略扩张，目标直指利润丰厚的数据中心AI芯片业务。 瞄准数据中心GPU，直面英伟达主场 据路透与TechCrunch，Lip-Bu Tan明确将GPU目标指向数据中心市场。相较英特尔长期主导的CPU， GPU更偏向特定工作负载，常用于游戏以及训练人工智能模型等任务，而这正是英伟达最核心的业务优 势。 据TechCrunch与路透，Eric Demmers已于1月加入英特尔。TechCrunch称，Eric Demmers此前在 Qualcomm任职超过13年，最近的职位为工程高级副总裁。 据路透，英特尔CEO Lip-Bu Tan周二在Cisco AI Summit上表示，公司计划制造图形处理器GPU，并称已 聘请高通资深高管Eric Demmers担任GPU首席架构师。 Lip-Bu Tan对路透表示，英特尔将先与客户一起工作，再定义客户需要什么，显示其切入策略将以实际 部署需求为导向，而非先行给出固定产品路线。 先定客户需求再定产品策略，项目仍在早期阶段 Lip-Bu Tan在 ...