Group 1 - The "Stargate" project, a $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure, was announced by the White House, aiming to build 20 large-scale AI data centers across the U.S. [2][3] - Initial enthusiasm for the project waned as disagreements over equity and funding emerged between SoftBank and OpenAI, leading to delays and a reduction in project scope [3][4] - By December, only the Abilene site showed significant progress, with plans to become the largest AI cluster by mid-2026, while other sites remained unconfirmed [3][4] Group 2 - CoreWeave went public with a valuation of approximately $230 billion, marking the first public market pricing of AI compute leasing [4][7] - The company transitioned from a cryptocurrency mining operation to a GPU cloud service, securing long-term contracts with major clients, including OpenAI [7][8] - CoreWeave's success has prompted similar companies to pursue IPOs and has changed the perception of compute power from a scarce resource to a flexible asset [8] Group 3 - NVIDIA became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, driven by the demand for GPUs in AI applications [20][22] - The company's stock price surged approximately 90% over six months, reflecting its pivotal role in the AI market [22][23] - Concerns about the sustainability of NVIDIA's valuation have emerged, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble [22][23] Group 4 - Warren Buffett announced his retirement in his final letter to shareholders, marking the end of an era for Berkshire Hathaway [24][25] - Buffett emphasized the importance of long-term thinking in business and criticized the competitive nature of executive compensation [25][26] Group 5 - SpaceX completed 155 launches in 2025, redefining the concept of scalable space operations [26][27] - The company achieved significant cost reductions through reusable rocket technology, transforming rockets into "turnaround assets" [27][28] - SpaceX is moving towards an IPO, signaling a shift from engineering marvels to industrial-scale operations in commercial space [30] Group 6 - Germany revised its 2035 ban on internal combustion engines, allowing for a transition period that reflects market realities [31][32] - The decision was influenced by lobbying from major automotive companies and highlighted the gap between aggressive climate goals and actual market conditions [31][32] Group 7 - Alphabet's market capitalization rose to $3.8 trillion, driven by advancements in AI technology and a focus on self-developed chips and models [34][36] - The company aims to challenge NVIDIA's dominance by enhancing the compatibility of its TPU with popular frameworks and directly selling its hardware [34][35] - The competition in AI is shifting towards cost efficiency and usability, with Alphabet positioning itself as a potential leader in the new AI platform landscape [35][36] Group 8 - NVIDIA acquired Groq's core technology for approximately $20 billion, emphasizing the importance of low-latency inference capabilities in AI [37][39] - This strategic move reflects a shift in focus from training to inference, as companies seek to optimize costs and efficiency in AI applications [39]

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni predicts that the S&P 500 index could reach 7,700 points by the end of 2026, with an EPS of $350 expected for 2027, and potentially challenge 10,000 points by the end of the decade [1][15][24] - Gold is projected to reach $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade, with silver also expected to perform well due to industrial demand [1][15][32] - The focus of investment is shifting from AI technology producers to users, as companies leveraging AI to enhance productivity and profit margins are seen as the real beneficiaries [1][4][30] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized as the "Roaring 2020s," with expectations of continued resilience in the economy and a potential inflation rate of 2% due to productivity gains [1][9][13] - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about corporate earnings, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years, particularly in 2026 and 2027 [25][27] - The bond market is anticipated to stabilize above 4%, reflecting the ongoing fiscal stimulus and its implications for economic growth [14][13]

12月28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波发表司长随笔《昂首迈向新一年》。 2025年即将成为过去，回望这一年，我们克服了不少挑战。即使外围发展不明朗，但本地资 产市场表现仍进一步改善、资金持续流入，访港旅客人数增加，整体出口和固定资本投资表 现良好，本地消费亦趋稳，估计本港今年经济增长将加速至3.2%，略高于年初时的预测。 总的来说，出口和投资表现良好，是带动经济的主要动力，而股市和楼市「价量齐升」，也 巩固了市场的正向预期。 资产市场方面，港股表现亮丽，连续第二年上升，截至上周，恒生指数收报25,818点，较去 年底升约29%，以升幅计，将是自2017年以来表现最好的年份，在全球主要股市中表现亦名 列前茅。这升势有着活跃的成交量支撑，新股集资额按年上升超过两倍；大市交投及上市后 的后续融资额均按年增加约一倍。今年首十一个月，港股平均每日成交额接近2,600亿元。 IPO集资额高踞全球第一，截至本月中已超过2,700亿元，其中四家的上市集资额更排在今年 全球十大新股之列。同期，已上市企业后续融资额超过5,100亿港元。资产及财富管理业务 方面，今年首九个月，在香港注册成立的证监会认可基金的资金净流入超过41 ...

| 见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar | | ¥ 华尔街见闻 | | --- | --- | --- | | 时间 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | 12月29日 周一 | | | | 数据 | 无 | | | 事件 待定 | 国投白银LOF:A类定投上限降回100元,C类份额将开始 暂停申购,12月29日起执行 | | | 12月30日 周二 | | | | 数据 | 元 | | | 待定 事件 | 上期所:12月30日收盘起,黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停 板幅度调整为15%，同时调整保证金比例 | | | 待定 | 五一视界、林清轩港股预计于12月30日挂牌上市 | | | 数据 | 09:30 | 中国 12月官方制造业PMI | | 49.2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09:45 | | 中国 12月RatingDog制造业PMI | | 49.9 | | 21:30 | | 美国 12月27日当周首次申请失业救济人数(万人) | | 21.4 | | 事件 | 03:00 | 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 | | | | 1月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current AI industry development stage is highly comparable to the late "1→N" phase of the internet bubble in 1998, with the AI wave only reaching about one-third of the spatial extent of that period [1][6][10] Market Performance Comparison - Since October 2022, the S&P 500 index has outperformed its fundamentals by approximately 27 percentage points, significantly lower than the 85 percentage points during the peak of the internet bubble [1][10] - The differentiation between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 is only about one-third of the level seen during the internet bubble, indicating that the valuation pressure of the current AI market is not at an extreme level [1][10] Future Market Expectations - The report predicts that the "1→N" phase of the AI wave will conclude around mid-2026, potentially leading to a mild market correction with the S&P 500 possibly retreating to around 6700 points [1][12] - Following this adjustment, the market is expected to enter the "N→N+" phase, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 9600 points by the end of 2027 [1][12] Investment Strategy Insights - The first half of 2026 will be a critical window for investors to adjust their portfolios and optimize AI positions, contrasting with the internet bubble's weak fundamentals [2][12] - The Nasdaq is expected to maintain a stronger earnings support compared to the S&P 500, indicating a more solid fundamental backing for stock prices rather than mere speculative trading [10][12] Historical Context - The internet bubble was characterized by a significant imbalance in the supply and demand for assets, driven by a unique historical context of abundant capital and a perception of long-term resource scarcity in the internet sector [3][5] - The current AI wave is seen as being in a similar phase to the internet bubble, with high revenue growth but also signs of marginal deceleration, particularly in the "1→N" phase [6][8]

供应缺口扩大与产能限制 白银价格逼近80美元，马斯克直言这对工业发展"不是好事"。受全球结构性赤字、库存暴跌及纸面交易脱节影响，白银正面临供应挤压。由于在 光伏与电动车领域不可替代，供应瓶颈正对现代工业链造成严峻挑战。 本周白银首次逼近80美元/盎司，迅猛涨势远超黄金。27日，马斯克表达了担忧。直言这对工业发展"不是好事"。 马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发表上述言论的。针对关于白银价格因"严重的全球供应短缺"而出现爆炸式增长的讨论，马斯克评论称： "这不好。白银在许多工业过程中是被需要的。" 分析指出，全球白银市场已连续五年处于结构性赤字状态，实物库存正在迅速枯竭，主要交易所的库存水平大幅下降。市场正面临一场实时的供 应挤压，而非仅仅是避险情绪推动的上涨。 白银不仅是贵金属投资品，更是太阳能电池板、电动汽车、电子产品及医疗设备的关键原材料。随着工业需求在总需求中的占比攀升至50%至 60%，供应端的瓶颈正迫使价格呈现垂直上涨态势，加剧了从金融机构到实体制造商的焦虑。 白银市场的供需裂痕正在扩大。2025年的数据显示，全球白银需求量达到12.4亿盎司，而供应量仅为10.1亿盎司，这意味着市场面临着1亿至2.5亿 盎 ...

本周白银首次逼近80美元/盎司，迅猛涨势远超黄金。27日，马斯克表达了担忧。直言这对工业发展"不是好事"。 "这不好。白银在许多工业过程中是被需要的。" 分析指出，全球白银市场已连续五年处于结构性赤字状态，实物库存正在迅速枯竭，主要交易所的库存水平大幅下降。市场正面临一场实时的供 应挤压，而非仅仅是避险情绪推动的上涨。 白银不仅是贵金属投资品，更是太阳能电池板、电动汽车、电子产品及医疗设备的关键原材料。随着工业需求在总需求中的占比攀升至50%至 60%，供应端的瓶颈正迫使价格呈现垂直上涨态势，加剧了从金融机构到实体制造商的焦虑。 供应缺口扩大与产能限制 马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发表上述言论的。针对关于白银价格因"严重的全球供应短缺"而出现爆炸式增长的讨论，马斯克评论称： 白银市场的供需裂痕正在扩大。2025年的数据显示，全球白银需求量达到12.4亿盎司，而供应量仅为10.1亿盎司，这意味着市场面临着1亿至2.5亿 盎司的供应缺口。这种供不应求的局面被描述为一种"结构性赤字"，且没有任何快速修复的迹象。 造成这一局面的核心原因在于矿端供应的刚性。白银开采大多是铜和锌开采的副产品，新建矿山通常需要10年以上的时间 ...

面对长达数年的电网接入等待期，急于为人工智能繁荣提供动力的开发商正转向航空发动机和化石燃料 发电机寻求解决方案。 这一趋势正在重塑电力设备市场的供需格局。据英国《金融时报》最新报道，GE Vernova等制造商报告 称，旨在绕过电网直接供电的订单显著增加。甚至连航空初创公司Boom Supersonic也跨界入局，计划 利用向数据中心出售动力涡轮机的收入来资助其喷气式飞机业务。 这种转变凸显了科技巨头在基础设施建设上的紧迫感，他们宁愿承担更高的成本，也不愿在电力排队中 等待。目前，数据中心面临的电网接入等待时间最长可达7年，通过在数据中心旁直接安装航空衍生涡 轮机，开发商可以立即为AI模型的训练和运行提供动力。 其本质是"飞机发动机" (Aircraft Engines)，形态是"涡轮机" (Turbines)，功能是"发电" (Power Generation)。简单来说：数据中心买的是飞机引擎（涡轮机），拿来当发电机用。 GE Vernova首席财务官Ken Parks在去年12月向投资者表示，公司看到了对其航空衍生和小型燃气机组 的"需求不断增长"，这些机组正作为"桥接电源"支持数据中心的需求。数据显示 ...

Core Insights - ByteDance and ZTE launched the "Doubao Phone," intensifying competition for the next-generation super entry point in the industry [2] - Lenovo plans to unveil its first global "AI Super Intelligent Body" at CES, directly competing with Doubao Phone Assistant, focusing on cross-device connectivity [2][3] - Lenovo's strategy emphasizes a hybrid AI approach, integrating personal, enterprise, and public intelligence over the next decade [6] Group 1 - Lenovo is collaborating closely with ByteDance's Doubao and Volcano Engine, indicating a partnership despite potential competition with the new AI Super Intelligent Body [4][5] - The smartphone market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where Lenovo must leverage AI opportunities to enhance Motorola's global market position [8] - ByteDance's strategy involves pre-installing AIGC plugins on partner devices, empowering more hardware terminals with Doubao Phone Assistant's capabilities [9] Group 2 - Vivo and ByteDance are reportedly in discussions for collaboration, while Meizu has expressed interest in working with Doubao [10] - OPPO has denied rejecting collaboration with ByteDance, emphasizing an open approach to partnerships based on user experience [10][11] - The competition for AI super entry points is just beginning, with hardware manufacturers concerned about becoming mere hardware providers if they overly rely on ByteDance's Doubao Assistant [13]

又一家中小银行的高管遭遇终身禁业处罚。 12月15日，重庆监管局披露渝农商行在经营中存在贷款"三查"不尽职、对大额风险损失的调查和问责不 到位、非现场统计数据差错等6项违规事由； 针对上述事项，监管局对三峡银行处以罚单870万元，时任副行长舒静、首席审贷员封洪伟均遭遇终身 禁业处罚，另有公司业务部总经理、授信审批部总经理、支行行长及副行长等9名中层被追责。 2022年4月，刘建忠到龄退休、谢文辉接任，两年后谢文辉工作调动离任，直至2025年5月，在建行、中 信信托有多年工作经验的刘小军被选举为新任董事长； 被解聘8个月后，舒静因利用职务便利非法经营同类营业、挪用公款、为他人在贷款审批等方面谋利、 非法收受巨额财物等严重违纪违法行为被"双开"。 舒静涉及的违法违规行为横跨多年、对渝农商行影响较大： 一方面，是此次被罚人员中有彭涛、曾昌逊两任总行公司业务部总经理，李欢、崔艳两任九龙坡支行副 行长，涉及时间较长； 本次处罚，或是舒静去年被查之后的"余震"。 另一方面，是被罚人员涉及信贷审批的各个环节，包括支行行长、副行长、信贷审批部总经理、首席审 贷员，舒静本人在2023年还曾主管该行会计工作。 2015年，舒静获 ...