政治分析人士和专家指出，美国总统特朗普推动共和党控制的州众议院选区重新划分，以保护共和党在 明年中期选举中的多数席位，这可能为共和党未来数十年控制众议院奠定基础。 共和党控制的得州议会上周通过新选区地图，预计为共和党增加5个席位。民主党主导的加州议会回应 称将提出公投，拟为民主党新增5席，但需在11月特别选举中获选民批准。路透/益普索民调显示，多数 美国人反对重划选区，甚至担忧美国民主制度本身岌岌可危。 摇摆选区锐减 无党派选举分析师认为，2026年中期选举中，全美435个众议院选区中仅有约36个存在竞争，真正的较 量转向党内初选——选出的议员更倾向极端立场，缺乏妥协意愿。 "这意味着选民意志无法在选举结果中体现。"美国大学国会与总统研究中心代理主任托马斯·卡恩 （Thomas Kahn）表示，"如果共和党通过筹款或'杰利蝾螈'建立制度性优势，本质上会锁死众议院控制 权，这对民主不利。" 纽约、加州等民主党票仓正流失人口至佛罗里达、得州、爱达荷等红州。共和党认为这是对其政策的认 可。"许多从加州湾区搬到得州奥斯汀、达拉斯或爱达荷博伊西的选民更倾向保守，他们因生活成本、 法律法规、州治理和商业环境等因素选择红州 ...

美国总统特朗普上周五再次威胁，若俄罗斯未在两周内与乌克兰达成和平协议，将对其实施大规模制裁 或关税。 随着俄乌和平进程停滞，特朗普似乎再度向俄罗斯总统普京发出"两周"的最后通牒，要求俄方展现更多 结束对乌军事行动的意愿。截至目前，俄罗斯未在停火协议上作出任何让步，反而要求乌克兰割让更多 领土。 特朗普上周五在白宫对记者表示："我将就我们的行动做出决定，这将是一个非常重要的决定——要么 实施大规模制裁或关税，或者两者兼而有之；要么撒手不管，称'这是你们的战斗'。" 乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天早些时候指责俄罗斯拖延和平谈判，试图拖延美国制裁。特朗普此前已威胁， 若俄方不为停火谈判做出更多努力，将对俄罗斯及其贸易伙伴实施制裁。 据乌克兰官员透露，俄罗斯上周四对乌克兰西部一家美资电子工厂发动空袭，造成至少15人受伤。当被 问及此事时，特朗普表示："我对此不高兴，我对这场冲突的任何相关事件都不高兴。" 本月早些时候，特朗普在阿拉斯加与普京会面，试图说服俄方结束对乌军事行动。随后，特朗普于上周 一在白宫会见包括泽连斯基在内的欧洲领导人，讨论和平协议前景。 此后不久，特朗普宣布正在安排普京与泽连斯基的双边会晤。但俄罗斯外长谢尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Pentagon has been restricting Ukraine's use of long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia, limiting Kyiv's military capabilities in the ongoing conflict [2][3] Group 1: Pentagon's Approval Process - A new approval process was introduced by the Pentagon to prevent Ukraine from using U.S.-made long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (Atacms) against Russian targets [2] - The approval mechanism grants the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, the final decision-making authority on whether Ukraine can utilize Atacms, which have a range of nearly 190 miles [2] - This approval requirement effectively overturns a previous decision made by President Biden that allowed Ukraine to use Atacms to strike within Russia [2] Group 2: Trump's Position and Military Strategy - Former President Trump stated that Ukraine must transition to an offensive stance to defeat Russia, although his comments do not imply a repeal of the Pentagon's approval process [3] - Trump has previously criticized Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to attack Russia, labeling it as "foolish" and suggesting it escalates the conflict [3] - The Pentagon's approval process also applies to Ukraine's use of "Storm Shadow" missiles, which rely on U.S. intelligence and components [3] Group 3: Military Aid and Weaponry - The U.S. has approved the sale of 3,350 air-launched long-range attack munitions (ERAM) to Ukraine, valued at $850 million, with most funding coming from European countries [4] - Despite the lack of announcements regarding increased missile supplies, European nations continue to purchase other weapons from the U.S. to assist Ukraine [4] - Ukraine is developing its own long-range weapons, including a new cruise missile named "Flamingo," expected to enter production by the end of this year or early next year [5] Group 4: Inventory Management and Control - The Pentagon has implemented a categorization system to assess U.S. weapon stockpiles for Ukraine, classifying them into "green," "yellow," and "red" categories based on availability [5] - The "green" category indicates sufficient inventory for immediate provision to Ukraine, while "yellow" and "red" signify tighter stock levels [5] - This categorization allows the Secretary of Defense to retract previously planned weapon systems for Ukraine if they fall into the "yellow" or "red" categories [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.89%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.88% [4] - European major indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX30 up by 0.29%, the UK's FTSE 100 rising by 0.13%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 increasing by 0.48% [5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.93%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.71% [5] - The A-share market showed positive momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 1.45%, the Shenzhen Component rising by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.36% [6] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices rose by 1% to $3,372.11 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 1.72% to $38.85 per ounce [8] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.36% to $63.65 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.25% to $67.32 per barrel [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4934% to 97.7, marking the largest single-day increase since early August [3] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.264%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.709% [3] Company News - Notable stock movements included Google (GOOG.O) rising by 3.17% and Intel (INTC.O) increasing by 5.53% [4] - Chinese companies listed in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index saw significant gains, with Miniso (MNSO.N) up by 20.25% and NIO (NIO.N) rising by 14.60% [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储每年一度的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，通常是央行官员和学界轻松交流的时刻。他们会讨论一些复杂的 经济议题，然后在大提顿山徒步。今年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会则显得气氛紧张，凸显出美联储未来道路的 艰难。 上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在主旨演讲中暗示，美联储最快可能在9月的政策会议上降息。然而，决策 者之间对这是否是正确的选择存在明显分歧。鲍威尔本人也指出，当前的经济形势给美联储官员带来 了"充满挑战的局面"。 决策者们正努力应对高于2%目标、并且仍在上升的通胀，同时劳动力市场却显露疲弱迹象。这种将政 策拉向两个相反方向的现实，加上未来几个月这些因素如何演变的不确定性，使难度进一步加大。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在会场一侧接受采访时表示： "我们正面临一些相互冲突的信号，而环境非常复杂。我一直说，央行最难的任务就是在转 折时刻把握好时机。" 研讨会也凸显了政治压力对美联储的影响。随着美国总统特朗普寻求在未来几个月对美联储继续施加影 响，这种压力很可能进一步加剧。 今年的安保措施明显比往年更严格，进一步加剧了会场的紧张氛围。美联储警察、美国公园警察和当地 的提顿县警长办公室 ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate is affected by the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia Wokeng mine and expectations of other lithium mines remaining offline, with a month-on-month increase in cathode material lithium consumption by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE in August [1] - Downstream procurement is accelerating, and there is an increased expectation for inventory replenishment [1] - Total inventory remains high at 142,000 tons [1] Group 2: Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% month-on-month to 3.61 million tons in June, with Malaysian palm oil exports also increasing by 13.6%-17.5% from August 1-20 [1] - The confiscation of 3.1 million hectares of illegal plantations in Indonesia may impact supply [1] - The postponement of the U.S. biofuel exemption is a significant event to monitor [1] Group 3: Urea - The Indian NFL's shortened bidding intervals and maintained scale have boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in spot market prices [1] - Company inventories rose by 6.95% to 1.0239 million tons [1] - The agricultural off-season has resulted in only sporadic demand, with a shift in compound fertilizer production towards high-phosphorus formulas [1] Group 4: Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to restrictions on coking enterprises, but steel mill maintenance may lead to a significant decrease in pig iron production [2] - The auction of Mongolian ETT coking coal resulted in all bids failing, causing a price correction for high-priced resources [2] - New orders have decreased as downstream sectors resist high-priced resources [2]

美国总统特朗普周五表示，若美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）不主动辞职，他将解雇她。这番言论 是特朗普对美联储施压行动的最新升级。数月来，他一直因美联储维持利率稳定的决策而抨击该机构。 埃德·马丁（Ed Martin）——一位被广泛认为是总统亲信的司法部律师——还曾敦促鲍威尔迅速罢免库 克，尽管根据法律，美联储主席无权这么做。 管辖美联储的法律《联邦储备法》（Federal Reserve Act）第10条规定，美联储理事会成员可"因正当理 由被罢免"。今年以来，特朗普已多次威胁解雇鲍威尔。美国最高法院5月曾表明，特朗普不能在无正当 理由的情况下解雇美联储理事会成员（包括鲍威尔）。 普尔特周四在彭博电视台表示，他 向 美国司法部提交库克涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈的刑事移送函，是更广泛打 击房贷欺诈行动的一部分，并补充称，联邦当局将调查此事，且不受调查对象政治立场的影响。司法部 周四证实将对库克展开调查。 目前美联储7位理事中，有两位是特朗普任命的，包括克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和米歇尔· 鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）。在美联储最近一次维持利率不变的决策中，两人均投下了反对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

Economic Situation and Short-term Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy adjustments, with the labor market close to full employment and inflation down from pandemic peaks, although still slightly above target [1][2] - The current economic challenges include increased tariffs reshaping global trade, tightened immigration policies slowing labor growth, and potential long-term impacts from tax, spending, and regulatory changes [2][3] - The labor market has seen a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 non-farm jobs added monthly over the past three months, compared to an expected average of 168,000 for 2024 [3] Inflation and GDP Growth - GDP growth has notably slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, about half of the projected 2.5% growth for 2024, primarily due to a decrease in consumer spending [4] - Inflation pressures are evident, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rising by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary trends [4][5] - Tariffs are contributing to rising prices, with the potential for these price increases to lead to more sustained inflation dynamics, although current labor market conditions may mitigate this risk [5] Monetary Policy Framework Evolution - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is evolving to adapt to changing economic conditions, emphasizing the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [7][11] - The revised consensus statement reflects lessons learned from recent economic experiences, including the need for clear communication regarding monetary policy strategies in varying economic environments [11][12] - Key adjustments in the framework include a shift away from emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economy and a return to a flexible inflation targeting approach [12][13] Long-term Economic Considerations - The revised framework acknowledges that the long-term neutral interest rate may be higher than in previous decades, influenced by factors such as productivity, demographics, and fiscal policy [11][15] - The commitment to a 2% long-term inflation target remains central to maintaining long-term inflation expectations, which is crucial for achieving the dual mandate [15][16] - The Federal Reserve plans to continue conducting public assessments of its framework approximately every five years to ensure alignment with evolving economic conditions [15][16]

Group 1 - The bullish sentiment for the US dollar has reached a three-week high, indicating traders' bets that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not adopt an overly dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal indicator has been rising since the beginning of the month, reflecting increased confidence in the dollar [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased, with current projections indicating a total of 47 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 63 basis points just over a week ago [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in his upcoming speech, which could further support the dollar's strength, particularly against the euro [4] - If Powell's speech implies any potential for a rate cut in September, it may lead to a temporary sell-off of the dollar, although this is expected to be short-lived [4] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has seen a significant decline, with the previous month marking a near four-year low, leading to an oversupply of long positions in euros that remains unresolved [4]