Core Points - President Trump plans to attend the Supreme Court oral arguments regarding tariffs, emphasizing the importance of tariffs for national defense and security [3] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on November 5 regarding Trump's request to overturn lower court rulings that found he lacked authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3][8] - Trump's administration argues that the IEEPA grants the president the right to regulate imports in response to "any unusual and special threat" [3][5] Legal Arguments - Trump's chief lawyer, John Sauer, contends that the Supreme Court has previously rejected similar claims regarding the president's authority [4] - The plaintiffs argue that even if the IEEPA grants tariff authority, it does not allow for unlimited tariff imposition [5] - Sauer asserts that decisions regarding foreign affairs and emergencies should be made by the president and Congress, not the courts [6][7] Tariff Strategy - Despite the ongoing Supreme Court case, Trump continues to announce new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on imported brand-name drugs and a 50% tariff on cabinets and related products [7][8] - The administration's actions are described as a "dual-track tariff strategy," indicating a potential continuation of tariffs regardless of the court's decision [8] - Legal experts suggest that businesses should consider tariffs as a significant aspect of regulatory and enforcement frameworks in the foreseeable future [8]

Core Insights - Precious metals have regained their status as safe-haven assets due to domestic turmoil in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, with gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October and reaching over $4,240, while silver exceeded $53 [1] - Analysts from major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, suggest that a mere 0.5% shift of foreign investors' U.S. assets into gold could drive prices to $6,000 per ounce, indicating significant growth potential for both gold and silver [1] - The year-to-date performance of precious metals has been remarkable, with silver and platinum futures rising over 80% and 85% respectively, while palladium has increased by over 75%, and gold has seen a rise of more than 60% [1] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metals was influenced by President Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement, which temporarily depressed U.S. stocks and led investors to seek refuge in metals, alongside expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Precious metals are benefiting from "currency devaluation trades," as investors typically turn to hard assets like metals when confidence in fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar declines [2] Future Projections - Despite the current upward trend, there are indications of potential short-term pullbacks in gold prices, as historical patterns suggest that consecutive weeks of price increases often precede declines [3] - Analysts predict that gold and silver could reach $5,000 per ounce and $65 per ounce respectively by 2026, with expectations of gradual declines rather than abrupt drops if a broader correction occurs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated that the Japanese yen could stabilize at an appropriate level if the Bank of Japan continues its correct monetary policy, amidst concerns over the yen's rapid depreciation [1][4]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Market Reactions - The yen's depreciation rate is at least twice that of other major currencies, reaching a low of 153.27 against the dollar on October 10, which has cooled speculation about a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate rebounded to around 151 before the European market opened on Thursday [1]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Masanobu acknowledged the yen's rapid movement towards weakness, supporting the currency's outlook [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Yellen refrained from commenting on the specific level of the yen or the upcoming policy decision by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, but noted Ueda's capabilities [4]. - Hawkish member of the Bank of Japan, Tamura Naoki, suggested that inflation trends may reach targets sooner than the bank currently anticipates, despite political instability reducing the likelihood of a policy tightening this month [5]. - Market expectations for a rate hike this month have dropped significantly, with only a 15% probability as of Thursday, down from 70% at the end of the previous month [5]. - Former Bank of Japan Executive Director, Kamezawa Kazuo, indicated that if the yen depreciates to 155 or lower against the dollar, a rate hike could be likely, especially with the new government potentially accepting such actions to mitigate inflation pressures [5].

美联储主席鲍威尔声称，当前劳动力市场降温、通胀回升，美联储已陷入"无风险路径可选"的困境。若 官员们为抑制通胀而维持高利率，可能会损害劳动力市场；若为支撑劳动力市场而降息，又可能让通胀 更难控制。 目前来看，鲍威尔似乎更愿意在通胀问题上"冒险"。他的理由是，今年夏季招聘大幅放缓后，劳动力市 场面临的风险已显著上升。种种迹象表明，美联储将在本月底的下次会议上，实施今年第二次降息。9 月发布的预测还显示，多数官员认为，在12月今年最后一次会议上，仍有空间再降25个基点。 但有经济学家警告，若劳动力市场未进一步走弱，美联储的降息空间可能仅限于此。若继续大幅降息， 通胀可能会被困在美联储2%的目标之上。 "通胀长期大幅偏离目标，对美联储而言是切实风险。"德意志银行、首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂 （Matthew Luzzetti）表示，"边际宽松政策将导致通胀在更高水平维持更久。" 鲍威尔对通胀的乐观态度，源于他的两个判断：一是特朗普的关税政策仅会导致消费者价格一次性上 涨，而非引发多轮涨价、推升持续性通胀；二是劳动力市场走弱将抑制消费价格涨幅——尤其是在薪资 增长疲软、失业率上升、整体支出放缓的情况下。他的乐观态度 ...

Core Insights - Italy's sovereign gold reserves have become a significant asset as gold prices reach historical highs, providing the country with an unexpected financial boon [1] - The Italian central bank holds the third-largest gold reserves globally, amounting to 2,452 tons, valued at approximately $300 billion, which is about 13% of Italy's projected GDP for 2024 [1] Historical Context - Italy's preference for gold dates back thousands of years, with significant historical events shaping its current policies, including the loss of 120 tons of gold during WWII [4][6] - Post-WWII, Italy's gold reserves increased significantly, reaching 1,400 tons by 1960, partly due to the recovery of looted gold [4] Current Gold Holdings - As of early 2025, Italy's central bank holds around 871,713 gold coins, weighing approximately 4.1 tons, with gold constituting nearly 75% of its official reserves, surpassing the Eurozone average of 66.5% [10] - Italy remains a leading exporter of gold jewelry, with major production centers in Alexandria, Arezzo, and Vicenza [10] Debt and Gold Policy - Italy's national debt exceeds €3 trillion (approximately $3.49 trillion), with calls for selling gold to reduce debt, although such measures have not been approved [11] - Experts argue that even selling half of the gold reserves would not significantly alleviate Italy's debt issues [11] Future Outlook - The Italian central bank has no plans to sell its gold reserves, viewing them as a crucial asset amid global market uncertainties and the rise of digital currencies [12] - The historical decision to retain gold reserves is seen as forward-looking in the current geopolitical climate [7]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must maintain a loose monetary policy and proceed with interest rate hikes very gradually due to global trade uncertainties impacting economic outlook [2][3] Economic Performance - Japan's economy has performed better than expected this year, supported by strong consumption and exports, along with a trade agreement with the United States that alleviated some uncertainties [2] - The BOJ raised the key interest rate to 0.5% in January, citing proximity to achieving the 2% inflation target, but the need for caution remains due to potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of wage growth and whether consumption can stabilize inflation near the BOJ's 2% target [2] - The BOJ's policy committee is increasingly concerned about rising inflation pressures, as indicated by two members proposing an interest rate hike in September, although it was not approved [3] Political Uncertainty - Political instability is exacerbating risks to Japan's fragile economy, highlighted by the recent setbacks faced by the ruling party's new leader in her bid to become Japan's first female prime minister [4] - The ruling party's loss in the July Senate elections, driven by public dissatisfaction with rising inflation, has led to proposals from both ruling and opposition parties to increase spending to alleviate economic pressures [4] Fiscal Policy Recommendations - Japan must develop a fiscal consolidation plan given its substantial public debt, ensuring that all spending measures are temporary and targeted at low-income households [4] - Proposals such as VAT reductions or blanket subsidies are deemed unfavorable at this stage, as they would significantly increase the deficit burden [4]

贝森特在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议期间的CNBC活动中表示："存在被压抑 的需求，然后唐纳德·特朗普总统用他的政策引发了这场繁荣。" "唯一让我们放慢脚步的是政府停摆，"贝森特补充道。 他表示，共和党的税法激励措施和特朗普的关税将使投资热潮持续下去，并推动经济持续增长。 美国财政部长贝森特周三表示，联邦政府停摆两周已导致美国经济每天损失约150亿美元的产出，他对 此进行了经济损失评估，并敦促民主党人"做英雄"，与共和党人站在一起结束停摆。 贝森特在新闻发布会上表示，政府停摆开始"伤及"美国经济的"筋骨"。 "我们认为，停摆可能开始使美国经济每天损失高达150亿美元，"他说。 贝森特称，包括对人工智能在内的美国经济投资浪潮是可持续的，并且才刚刚开始，但联邦政府停摆正 日益成为一个障碍。 美国财政部尚未公布年度赤字数字。国会预算办公室上周估计，尽管特朗普的关税使海关收入增加了 1180亿美元，但2025财年美国赤字仅略微下降至1.817万亿美元。 贝森特在CNBC活动中表示："赤字占GDP的比例，这是一个重要数字，现在是5开头。" 当被问及是否希望看到赤字占GDP比例回到"3时代"时，贝森特说 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential halt in the reduction of U.S. Treasury securities from the balance sheet in the coming months, without mentioning the Treasury's role in this process [1] - The Treasury has been increasing the supply of short-term Treasury bills (maturing in one year or less), indicating a need for the federal government to maintain higher Treasury General Account (TGA) balances, which have been targeted at $850 billion for most of the past year [1] - Analysts suggest that the TGA balance could reach at least $900 billion in the upcoming quarterly update on November 3 [1] Group 2 - Bank of America data indicates that the increase in the weekly auction size of short-term Treasury bills suggests a net supply of approximately $146 billion this month, exceeding expectations by $80 billion [2] - The increase in short-term Treasury bill supply necessitates a higher TGA balance to match cash flow, with the Treasury aiming to maintain the TGA balance at a level sufficient to cover one week of expenditures and maturing tradable debt [2] - Wrightson ICAP's senior economist Lou Crandall noted that the official quarterly target balance for the TGA has remained stable at $850 billion for most of the past year, with expectations for an increase to $900 billion in the new borrowing forecast to be released on November 3 [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained largely flat in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending slightly declining [1] - Employment levels are stable, but labor demand is weak, and multiple regions report rising input costs [1][2] - Consumer spending, particularly among middle- and low-income households, has weakened, and manufacturing has been negatively impacted by tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness over the past six weeks, with employers reporting layoffs and natural attrition to reduce workforce numbers [2] - Wages have increased across all regions, with overall growth described as moderate to average, contrasting with previous months where some regions saw no wage growth [2] - Price pressures are rising due to tariffs, but not all businesses are passing these costs onto consumers, which may help protect consumer spending [2] Group 3 - The Beige Book is unlikely to prevent the Federal Reserve from supporting further interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, as more policymakers are publicly backing this move [3] - The report aligns with Fed Chair Powell's message that economic conditions have not improved since the last rate cut on September 17 [3] - ING anticipates that the Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, even without key data releases [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan calls for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, suggesting that a reduction of no more than 50 basis points at a time is realistic, with two more cuts expected this year [12] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit a list of three to four candidates for the Federal Reserve leadership to Trump after Thanksgiving [12] - The CPI in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year [12] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index rising by 0.4% and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.66%, while the Dow Jones experienced a slight decline [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.84%, with significant gains in gold stocks and new consumption stocks [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.22%, with over 4,300 stocks rising, particularly in the robotics and automotive sectors [6] Group 3 - The international gold price reached a new high, closing at $4208.28 per ounce, up 1.6%, while silver also saw a strong rebound, closing at $52.99 per ounce, up 3.11% [7] - WTI crude oil closed at $58.26 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.26% to $62.23 per barrel [7]