"我们仍需完成加沙的任务：解救所有人质，消灭并摧毁哈马斯的军事与治理能力，"内塔尼亚胡说。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周三表示，他与美国总统特朗普的会面聚焦于解救加沙人质，并强调自己决 心"消灭"哈马斯的军事与治理能力。 内塔尼亚胡在X平台上称，两国领导人还讨论了"我们对伊朗取得重大胜利"的影响与后续可能。上个月 美国和以色列一起袭击了伊朗核设施。 这是特朗普1月20日就职以来，内塔尼亚胡第三次访美。他此前对记者表示，尽管以色列在巴勒斯坦飞 地的军事行动尚未结束，但谈判人员"确实在推进"停火事宜。 特朗普周二与内塔尼亚胡举行两天内的第二次会面，讨论加沙局势。美国中东特使表示，经过近两年战 争，以色列与哈马斯已接近达成停火协议。内塔尼亚胡也证实停火努力正在推进。 Axios新闻网援引知情人士消息称，在周二内塔尼亚胡抵达前，卡塔尔代表团已与白宫高级官员会面 ——卡塔尔是以色列谈判人员与哈马斯间接谈判的东道主。白宫未立即对此报道置评。 特朗普的中东特使史蒂夫·维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）在一场内阁会议上告诉记者，阻碍以哈达成协议的 问题已从4个减至1个， ...

Group 1 - The global oil market is entering a new period of increased volatility due to unpredictable supply changes, misleading demand signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and deteriorating economic sentiment [1] - Recent abnormal fluctuations in diesel price spreads indicate that traders need a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the market [1] - The traditional indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are failing to accurately reflect mid-term demand due to extreme weather conditions in Europe and North America [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is facing a capacity crisis, with global refining margins remaining at historically high levels despite concerns over an economic recession [2] - A total of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in Europe is confirmed to be closing, including facilities in Grangemouth and several German refineries [2] - The impact of these closures has not yet fully reflected in current prices, indicating potential future price increases [2] Group 3 - The key observation point is whether the arbitrage trade from the Middle East and India to Europe will restart, serving as an early warning signal for regional supply tightness [3] - The phenomenon of "disappearing barrels" continues to perplex analysts, as the actual tightness in physical inventories far exceeds official supply-demand forecasts [3] - If U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela lead to further reductions in crude oil exports, it could trigger significant market disruptions this year [3]

Group 1 - The uncertainty created by tariffs is affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is willing to wait for clear evidence of the impact of the trade war on prices before making any rate cuts [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is perceived to be high at 63%, but some analysts believe the Fed may hold steady [1][2] Group 2 - UBS predicts that tariff levels could reach around 15% by the end of the year, contributing to moderate stagflation risks [2] - The Fed has raised its forecasts for unemployment and inflation for the end of the year, indicating concerns about economic conditions [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut this month are below 5%, but optimism for a policy easing by December is at 96% [2]

Group 1 - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production in August, yet oil prices have risen to a two-week high, indicating a complex market dynamic [1][2] - Internal disagreements within OPEC+ regarding production quotas are intensifying, leading to a global market share competition [1][2] - The increase in production for August is significantly larger at 54.8 thousand barrels per day compared to previous months' increases of 41.1 thousand barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has seen a slowdown in drilling activities, with the number of active rigs dropping to 425, the lowest since October 2021 [3] - OPEC+ is leveraging this situation to increase production, aiming to force marginal producers out of the market [2][3] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran have also influenced oil prices, with Brent crude experiencing a significant rise and subsequent fall due to military actions and ceasefire agreements [4] Group 3 - Despite recent increases, WTI crude prices have still fallen by 4.7% year-to-date, reflecting ongoing volatility in the oil market [4] - The easing of trade and inflation concerns since April has provided support for oil prices, as global economic outlooks improve [4]

Group 1 - The EU is nearing a trade agreement with the US, which may involve higher tariffs than those negotiated by the UK, causing concern among some European nations [2][3] - A temporary "framework" agreement is being prepared, setting US tariffs at 10%, aligning with the baseline tariffs imposed on the UK by Trump [2][3] - The EU does not expect to achieve the same market access in the US for steel, automobiles, and other products as the UK has [2][3] Group 2 - The UK has secured better terms on sector-specific tariffs, including a 10% tariff on a quota of 100,000 cars, compared to the 25% faced by other exporters [4] - The UK also received zero tariffs on steel and aluminum, although implementation is still pending [4] - In return, the UK agreed to meet US demands regarding supply chain roles and provided tariff-free quotas for beef and bioethanol [4] Group 3 - The EU is preparing to reduce its trade surplus with the US by committing to purchase more American weapons and liquefied natural gas [5] - The EU has paused its retaliatory actions during negotiations but plans to implement counter-tariffs on $210 billion worth of US goods starting July 14 [5] - A proposal for additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods, including aircraft and alcohol, is being prepared, requiring approval from member states [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普决定将对等关税的实施时间推迟到8月1日，这一决定背后，又是财长贝森特发挥了关键 作用。 贝森特认为，与印度和欧盟等贸易伙伴的谈判正在取得进展，因此建议特朗普给予更多时间。 这已经是贝森特在此轮"关税战"中第二次"拯救"全球金融市场。 周三，特朗普还预告了一项根据另一法律授权实施的新一轮关税计划，计划对铜产品征收50%关税，对 药品征收最高达200%的关税，理由是"国家安全"。企业将有最多18个月的过渡期，以迁移相关药品供 应链。卢特尼克补充说，铜的相关公告将在周二发布，关于半导体和药品的新税率将在8月1日前公布。 仍有谈判空间，但并非每个国家都能达成协议 特朗普原希望"乘胜追击"，贝森特力挽狂澜 知情人士称，在发布延后谈判期限这一决定的前一个周末，特朗普在其位于新泽西州贝德明斯特的私人 高尔夫俱乐部内，通过电话和私下交谈与盟友进行磋商。他一度在"设定新的8月最后期限"与"直接寄出 不含日期、仅标示新关税税率的信件"之间权衡。 特朗普曾在公开场合表示，未来可能不再通过谈判达成协议以避免征税。但在听取了贝森特的意见后， 他改变了初衷——贝森特 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，美国今年迄今已获得约1000亿美元的关税收入，随着美国总统特朗普贸易战的征税加速，到 2025年底，这一数字可能增至3000亿美元。 贝森特在一次白宫内阁会议上说，特朗普新关税的主要征收工作仅在第二季度才开始，当时特朗普对美国进口商品实施了近乎 普遍的10%关税，并提高了对钢铁、铝和汽车的关税。 "因此我们可以预期，到年底，这个数字很可能远超3000亿美元，"贝森特说。 一位财政部发言人表示，3000亿美元的目标对应的是2025日历年的年底，即12月31日，而非政府财政年度的年底，即9月30 日。 要达到3000亿美元的2025年关税收入，将意味着美国未来几个月征收额的指数级增长，以及从当前水平上进行大幅和广泛的关 税上调。 贝森特补充说，国会预算办公室曾估计，关税收入在10年内将总计约2.8万亿美元，"我们认为这个数字可能偏低。" 财政部报告称，5月份的关税总额创下228亿美元的纪录，与去年同期的62亿美元相比，增长了近四倍。这使得美国2025财年前 八个月的关税征收总额达到861亿美元。截至2025日历年的前五个月，美国 ...

据央视及新华社报道证实，7月8日特朗普政府表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，而据 美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，在特朗普内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克最新说，美国商务 部已完成对铜进口状况的调查，他预计新关税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 尽管特朗普政府的贸易政策反复多变，但由于事发突然且已点燃金融资本的逐利冲动。风口浪尖的铜市 场金融定价掀起巨浪，冲击中美欧贸易稳定性与金融定价！ 8日当日纽约铜价单日暴涨逾10%，因美国瞬间涌现多头逼空及大量空头回补潮，美国铜期货正上演单 日突破历史高位记录的逼空大戏，与此同时伦敦铜价高位巨震日内回落近2%，而我国铜期货价格8日夜 盘结束仍以微涨收盘，但预计9日开盘交易后预计沪铜将小幅调整回落后跟跌伦敦铜。 但由于铜资源卡脖子问题突出，预计全球铜价经历了短期割裂之后，中国铜现货将依赖"上游资金极紧 缺，可交割铜库存极低，下游反内卷回暖"等结构性强势因素，中长期预计维持抗跌坚挺，下半年或将 朝向年内新高！ 从铜市本轮结构变化来看，目前美国铜期货市场上演逼空行情后，现货升水升至极端历史高位水平，而 伦敦LME铜价则因跨大西洋贸易流断裂担忧承压下行，美国与欧 ...

Core Points - Kevin Hassett is emerging as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair, posing a threat to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor [1][3] - The competition for the Fed chairmanship reflects Trump's typical style, with ambitious figures vying for his favor, reminiscent of his reality show "The Apprentice" [2] - Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is driving this competition, as he seeks more aggressive interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, 63, has shifted his stance on the Fed, becoming one of Powell's harshest critics, accusing the Fed of making decisions based on partisan interests rather than economic data [4][5] - Kevin Warsh, 55, is attempting to adjust his previously hawkish stance on monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed could cut rates more effectively by reducing its holdings of $6.2 trillion in Treasury and MBS assets [6] - Scott Bessent is in a unique position, having been privately suggested by Trump as a potential Fed Chair, with discussions about him possibly holding both the Treasury and Fed Chair positions [7] Group 2: Economic Context - Analysts note that the government's push for tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts has exacerbated fiscal deficit pressures, leading Trump's team to blame high interest rates on the Fed [3] - Trump's recent strong statements indicate that the new Fed Chair must support interest rate cuts, a more direct demand than during Powell's appointment in 2018 [3] - Bessent's views on the Fed have evolved, as he has publicly criticized Powell for being overly cautious in rate cuts due to past misjudgments on inflation [8]

特朗普4月份宣布了他的对等关税议程，但他已经两次延长了他为各国设定的与美国达成双边贸易协议 以避免这些最高税率的最后期限。 虽然一些个别商品的价格已经因关税而上涨，但特朗普的政策尚未引发企业和消费者所担心的整体通 胀。 许多经济学家表示，他们仍然预计未来几个月价格会上涨。他们指出了这些更高价格尚未出现的多种原 因。 一个原因是，特朗普一再推迟实施他许多最严厉的"解放日"关税，第二个原因是关税与其在现实世界中 价格影响之间的时间差，而第三个因素是许多公司今年早些时候进行的补库存行为。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 白宫一位高级经济顾问周二将美国总统特朗普的关税将导致物价上涨的几率，比作陨石撞击地球的几 率。 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在一档节目中表示，"罕见事件确实会发 生。我们会遇到大流行病，或者陨石或其他什么，但到目前为止，根本没有证据表明它（特朗普关税推 高通胀）正在发生。我不是有意轻视，"他补充道。"我的意思只是说，预测是困难的，我们应该始终从 几率和可能性的角度来谈论问题。我没有能告诉我未来的水晶球，其他人也没有。" 米兰还推广了他 ...