Core Points - Kevin Hassett is emerging as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair, posing a threat to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor [1][3] - The competition for the Fed chairmanship reflects Trump's typical style, with ambitious figures vying for his favor, reminiscent of his reality show "The Apprentice" [2] - Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is driving this competition, as he seeks more aggressive interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, 63, has shifted his stance on the Fed, becoming one of Powell's harshest critics, accusing the Fed of making decisions based on partisan interests rather than economic data [4][5] - Kevin Warsh, 55, is attempting to adjust his previously hawkish stance on monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed could cut rates more effectively by reducing its holdings of $6.2 trillion in Treasury and MBS assets [6] - Scott Bessent is in a unique position, having been privately suggested by Trump as a potential Fed Chair, with discussions about him possibly holding both the Treasury and Fed Chair positions [7] Group 2: Economic Context - Analysts note that the government's push for tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts has exacerbated fiscal deficit pressures, leading Trump's team to blame high interest rates on the Fed [3] - Trump's recent strong statements indicate that the new Fed Chair must support interest rate cuts, a more direct demand than during Powell's appointment in 2018 [3] - Bessent's views on the Fed have evolved, as he has publicly criticized Powell for being overly cautious in rate cuts due to past misjudgments on inflation [8]

特朗普4月份宣布了他的对等关税议程，但他已经两次延长了他为各国设定的与美国达成双边贸易协议 以避免这些最高税率的最后期限。 虽然一些个别商品的价格已经因关税而上涨，但特朗普的政策尚未引发企业和消费者所担心的整体通 胀。 许多经济学家表示，他们仍然预计未来几个月价格会上涨。他们指出了这些更高价格尚未出现的多种原 因。 一个原因是，特朗普一再推迟实施他许多最严厉的"解放日"关税，第二个原因是关税与其在现实世界中 价格影响之间的时间差，而第三个因素是许多公司今年早些时候进行的补库存行为。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 白宫一位高级经济顾问周二将美国总统特朗普的关税将导致物价上涨的几率，比作陨石撞击地球的几 率。 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在一档节目中表示，"罕见事件确实会发 生。我们会遇到大流行病，或者陨石或其他什么，但到目前为止，根本没有证据表明它（特朗普关税推 高通胀）正在发生。我不是有意轻视，"他补充道。"我的意思只是说，预测是困难的，我们应该始终从 几率和可能性的角度来谈论问题。我没有能告诉我未来的水晶球，其他人也没有。" 米兰还推广了他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures continues to rise, driven by policy guidance and expectations of effective capacity clearing and structural adjustments in the industry, despite a lack of substantial support from actual transactions in the spot market [1][2][6] Price Trends - The main polysilicon futures contract saw an increase of over 5%, settling at a 3.40% rise, with mainstream enterprise prices climbing to 40 yuan/kg and above [1] - Recent adjustments in polysilicon prices include a rise of 3000 yuan/ton for N-type re-investment material to 39,000 yuan/ton, and other N-type materials also saw significant price increases [1][6] Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market has not changed significantly, with a balance in monthly supply and demand, and ongoing destocking [2] - The market is experiencing a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, where the actual performance in the spot market does not align with optimistic forecasts [4] Industry Responses - Major polysilicon companies are recalculating their full costs and reporting to management, with potential penalties for selling below cost [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is prompting the photovoltaic sector to respond actively, leading to noticeable price increases in polysilicon [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may maintain a wide fluctuation range, with no official guidelines on cost pricing measures yet [3] - The overall demand for polysilicon is under pressure due to declining profits in silicon wafer companies and high inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to remain weak in the short term but may see improvements in the long term due to policy support and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [6]

Group 1 - Recent reduction in large long positions on U.S. Treasuries by futures traders following unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data, leading to upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.410%, marking five consecutive days of increases [1] - Significant liquidation of long positions in futures contracts linked to 5-year and 10-year Treasuries, with approximately $70 billion worth of 10-year Treasuries effectively sold [1] Group 2 - Asset management firms have significantly increased their long positions in 5-year and 10-year Treasury futures, reaching record highs [2] - Upcoming auctions of $39 billion in 10-year Treasuries and $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries may exacerbate passive deleveraging pressure if demand is weak [2] - The current interest rate market is characterized by uncertainty and diverging views, with institutions engaging in long-short hedging strategies [2] Group 3 - Increased focus on put options for September and December reflects growing concerns about maintaining high interest rates [3] - The skew in Treasury options has shifted towards bearish, with traders paying premiums to hedge against rising interest rate risks [3] - Asset management firms significantly increased long positions in 10-year Treasury futures before the non-farm data release, indicating a rush to position ahead of a potential shift in market sentiment [3]

特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克周二怒斥Wedbush Securities的分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）"闭嘴"，此前这位 分析师在社交平台X上的一篇帖子中，向这家电动汽车公司的董事会提出了三项建议。 艾夫斯一直是华尔街最看好特斯拉的分析师之一。他对该股设定了500美元的目标价，是FactSet追踪的 所有分析师中给出的最高预测。 但在周二，艾夫斯发表了对马斯克政治活动的批评言论。此前，这位世界首富于上周末表示，他正在创 建一个名为"美国党"的新政党，以挑战那些投票支持"大而美"法案的共和党候选人。 在艾夫斯发帖之前，特斯拉股价周一下跌了近7%，市值蒸发了680亿美元。 艾夫斯呼吁特斯拉董事会为马斯克设立一个新的薪酬方案，给予他25%的投票控制权，并为与xAI的合 并扫清道路；为马斯克必须在特斯拉花费多少时间设立"护栏"；并对"政治活动提供监督"。 艾夫斯与他公司的其他分析师发表了一份更长的报告，标题为："特斯拉董事会必须采取行动，为马斯 克制定基本规则；这场'肥皂剧'必须结束。"分析师们表示，马斯克发起新政党的行为，为"特斯拉的故 事创造了一个引爆点"，因此公司董事会有必要采取行动来约束这位CEO。 尽管 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 特朗普再次炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，表示如果他误导了国会，就应"立即辞职"。他指责鲍威尔在美联储 总部翻修问题上欺骗国会，并批评其拒绝降息。 特朗普在周二的内阁会议上直言鲍威尔"太糟糕"，并对媒体表示，如果鲍威尔在美联储总部装修问题上 确实欺骗了国会，那就应当立刻下台， "那他就应该立刻辞职……我们需要一个愿意降息的人来接替他。" 特朗普并未详细评论鲍威尔的证词，而是转向指责鲍威尔在去年11月总统大选前"疯狂地降息"，"他那 时候是想帮他们赢吧，"特朗普说，这里指的是他的民主党对手。 鲍威尔在7月3日致参议院银行委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott）的信中补充称，美联储"非常重视公 共资源的使用责任，欢迎就此事进一步沟通"，并表示美联储将为斯科特团队安排项目简报会，详细介 绍装修情况。 当记者向特朗普提问，是否支持国会共和党人调查鲍威尔关于美联储大楼装修的陈述，特朗普表 示："我没意见，我觉得他糟透了。" 随后，特朗普又在社交媒体上指责鲍威尔"几个月来像个婴儿一样哀嚎，抱怨并不存在的通胀，拒绝做 正确的事情。"他写道： "立刻降息，杰罗姆（鲍威尔）— ...

Core Points - Trump is considering providing Ukraine with an additional "Patriot" air defense system to enhance its ability to resist Russian attacks, marking a significant step as it would be the first time he approves major weapon systems beyond what the Biden administration authorized [2] - The Pentagon has indicated that under Trump's direction, the Department of Defense will send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, although the specific additional weapons have not yet been disclosed by the White House [2][3] - Ukraine is currently seeking more systems to counter escalating Russian military attacks and replenish its depleting interceptors, with each "Patriot" system typically including multiple launchers, a radar system, command control, and intercept missiles [3] Group 1 - Trump’s potential approval of an additional "Patriot" system represents a shift in U.S. military support for Ukraine, reflecting dissatisfaction with Russian President Putin [2] - The U.S. has already provided three "Patriot" systems to Ukraine, with additional systems supplied by Germany and other European nations, although not all systems are operational due to maintenance issues [2] - The U.S. and its allies face challenges in providing sufficient interceptors, as the ongoing conflicts have severely depleted U.S. ammunition stocks, raising concerns about the ability to support Ukraine adequately [3] Group 2 - Trump has expressed increased concern for Ukraine's defense needs amid intensified Russian missile and drone attacks, emphasizing the importance of defensive weapons [4] - He has publicly praised the bravery of Ukrainian forces, indicating a willingness to support further economic pressure on Russia as its wartime economy faces challenges due to international sanctions [4]

Group 1: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with a quick announcement on semiconductor tariffs expected [2][9] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that 15 to 20 tariff letters will be sent out in the next two days, with copper tariffs set to be implemented by August 1 [9][11] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary reported that $100 billion in tariffs have been collected so far, with expectations to reach $300 billion by year-end [11] Group 2: Market Reactions and Performance - Gold prices fell by 1.05% to $3301.63 per ounce, while silver slightly decreased by 0.04% to $36.72 per ounce, influenced by rising U.S. dollar strength and bond yields [3][6] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.41% to $67.18 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.58% to $69.42 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions [3][6] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, S&P 500 slightly down 0.07%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [3][6] Group 3: International Relations and Defense - The U.S. Department of Defense announced plans to provide more defensive weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing military support [11] - Upcoming talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese officials aim to address trade issues, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts [11] Group 4: Regional Market Developments - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.55% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.54% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 1.09%, driven by gains in technology and healthcare sectors [4] - A-shares saw positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component up 1.47% [5]

Core Points - President Trump has announced a firm implementation of tariffs starting August 1, with no possibility of delay, affecting various imports including copper and pharmaceuticals [2][3] - The copper tariff is set at 50%, leading to a significant surge in copper futures prices, reaching a historical high of $5.8955 per pound, with a 17% increase on the announcement day [5][6] - The pharmaceutical industry will face tariffs up to 200%, with a grace period of one to one and a half years for companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [6][7] Tariff Implementation - Tariffs will officially begin on August 1, with Trump emphasizing that there will be no changes to this date [3][4] - Additional tariffs of 10% will be imposed on goods from countries participating in the BRICS mechanism, including India [3][4] Market Impact - The announcement has caused a spike in copper prices, with the New York copper price exceeding the London Metal Exchange price by 25%, marking an unprecedented premium [5][7] - Analysts predict that the copper market will see increased buying activity before the tariffs take effect, leading to short-term price hikes [7][8] Industry Dependency - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with net imports accounting for 36% of total demand, and significant imports coming from Chile, Canada, and Mexico [8] - The anticipated demand for copper is expected to rise significantly over the next decade, driven by sectors such as data centers and electric vehicle manufacturing [7][8]

受美国与贸易伙伴谈判的乐观情绪影响，以及美元走强和美国国债收益率上升的进一步施压，作为避险资产的黄金周二下跌。 截至发稿，现货黄金日内跌幅达1.00%，跌破3300美元/盎司。基准10年期美国国债收益率触及逾两周高点，降低了无息黄金的吸引力；美元指数涨至近两周 高点。 与此同时，市场正等待周三公布的美国联邦储备委员会最新政策会议纪要，多位美联储官员本周将发表讲话，以更深入了解经济和央行的政策路径。 "关税对通胀的持续威胁可能会说服美联储推迟到明年再降息，这将限制黄金价格上涨，"资本经济学（Capital Economics）气候与大宗商品经济学家哈马德· 侯赛因（Hamad Hussain）称。投资者目前预计，美联储将从10月开始降息，到今年年底累计降息50个基点。 Fxstreet分析师指出，3300美元-3295美元区域可能会为黄金的下跌提供缓冲，在该区域下方，金价可能会加速下跌至3270美元水平区域附近的下一个相关支 撑位。这一下行轨迹可能最终会延长至3248-3247美元区间，即6月份的月度低点。 贵金属分析师ChristopherLewis仍认为，考虑到很多地缘政治事件，以及围绕关税战的不确定性，黄 ...