01) 美国8月未季调CPI年率 公布值 ■符合预期 2.9% 美国8月CPJ年率为2.9% 最大;月率为0.4%,创 期的0.3%。特朗普全面 进的,未来几个月价格i 美国企业已耗尽关税前[ 2025 09-11 美国8月CP 看CPI,到 全十数据 | 2025-09-11制图 | 02 核心CPI年率 | 03 核心C | | --- | --- | | 公布值 | 公布值 | | 3.1% 符合预期 | 符合预期 | | 核心 CPI年 率 为 3.1%,符合预 | 核心CPI月率为 | | 期,其中,居住类指数过去一年一 | 上涨项目包括机 | | 上涨3.6%。 | 服装及新车。 | | 11/ L 1 - 1 / - - | 指数是少数在8 | 交易员完全定价 数据公布后,交易员加 押注,交易员完全定价 美联储今年底前 将降息三次。8月通胀 段新高，但预计不会 将降息三次 息，因就业市场疲弱。 @ JIN10.COM 看CPI，到金十，立即下载金十数据APP>> ...

美国8月整体CPI涨幅高于预期，同时核心CPI保持稳定，但由于就业市场疲弱，预计这些数据不会阻止美联储下周降息。 美国8月季调后CPI月率录得0.4%，为1月以来新高，高于市场预期和前值的0.3%；年率录得2.9%，为1月以来新高，符合市场预期，较前值2.7%有所上升。 季调后核心CPI月率录得0.3%，与市场预期和前值一致；年率录得3.1%，同样符合预期，并与前值持平。 持续更新中...... 与此同时，美国至9月6日当周初请失业金人数录得26.3万人，为2021年10月23日当周以来新高，市场预期为23.5万人，前值从23.7万人下修为23.6万人。 在近期就业市场出现悲观消息后，CPI报告可能引发对滞胀的担忧。美国总统特朗普全面征收关税的影响是渐进的，但未来几个月价格可能会加速上涨，因 为企业现在已经耗尽了关税前的库存。一段时间以来，商业调查一直在暗示价格即将上涨。 桑坦德银行美国资本市场首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示："大量证据表明，更多与关税相关的通胀即将到来，尽管这可能还需要几个月的时间才能完全传 导。" 分析师EndaCurran则指出，除了通胀数据外，我们还看到了一些令人震惊的 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.4% in August, following a 0.2% rise in July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The core index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in August, consistent with July, with a 12-month increase of 3.1% [1][6] Food Sector - The food index rose by 0.5% in August, with the household food index increasing by 0.6% [2] - Major grocery food groups saw increases, with fruits and vegetables up by 1.6%, and meat, poultry, fish, and eggs up by 1.0% [2][3] - The dining out index increased by 0.3% in August, with a year-over-year rise of 3.9% [3][4] Energy Sector - The energy index increased by 0.7% in August, following a 1.1% decline in July, with gasoline prices rising by 1.9% [5] - Over the past 12 months, the energy index has risen by 0.2%, with gasoline prices down by 6.6% [5] Core Index Excluding Food and Energy - The core index, excluding food and energy, saw a 0.3% increase in August, with significant contributions from housing and transportation [6] - The rent index rose by 0.3%, while the airline fare index surged by 5.9% [6] Unadjusted CPI Metrics - The unadjusted CPI-U rose by 2.9% over the past 12 months, reaching 323.976 [7] - The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) increased by 2.8% over the same period [7]

北京时间周四20:15，欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，符合市场预期，主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率维持在2.15%和2.40%不变。 欧洲央行并未对特定的利率路径做出预先承诺，并称将采取数据依赖和逐次会议的方式，来决定适当的货币政策立场。 欧洲央行利率决议公布后，欧元兑美元短线下挫，最低至1.1661，创近一周低点。 最新的季度预测显示，欧洲央行预计2025年通胀率为2.1%，2026年为1.7%，2027年为1.9%（6月预期分别为2.0%、1.6%、2.0%）；预计2025年核心通胀率为 2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.8%（6月预期分别为2.4%、1.9%、1.9%）。 经济增长前景方面，欧洲央行预计2025年GDP增长率为1.2%，2026年为1.0%，2027年为1.3%（6月预期分别为0.9%、1.1%、1.3%）。 机构分析师表示，最有趣的变化是对2027年通胀预期的调整：整体通胀率降至1.9%，核心通胀率降至1.8%。较低的2027年通胀预期可能会增加欧元的压 力，并让降息的猜测继续存在。 欧洲央行认为通胀压力得到控制，尽管美国提高了关税，但经济依然稳固。 该央行在一份声 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to show persistent inflation, with a projected month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, marking the highest level since January [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [1][2] - Tariff costs are expected to continue impacting overall inflation, with economists noting that the gradual implementation of tariffs helps avoid sharp price spikes in any given month [1][2] Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a month-over-month increase in core CPI of 0.36%, slightly above market expectations, pushing the year-over-year core CPI to 3.13% [2] - Ameriprise anticipates a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.4%, driven by rising tariff costs and food prices, with overall inflation expected to peak between 3.2% and 3.4% in November to December [3] - The impact of tariffs is seen as temporary, with expectations that inflation will peak and then begin to decline [3] Consumer Sentiment and Market Reactions - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 4.8%, significantly higher than market predictions of 2.6% [3] - The ongoing inflationary pressures are primarily driven by the service sector rather than goods prices, which are more directly affected by tariffs [5] - If CPI data exceeds expectations, it may indicate a loss of momentum in the inflation decline trend, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [5][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 72% chance of another cut in October [5] - The Federal Reserve's focus on employment data may be challenged by rising inflation, making future rate decisions more complex [5][6] - Ameriprise predicts a rate cut in September but does not foresee another cut in October due to accelerating inflation [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing willingness to increase exposure to China [1] - BlackRock indicates that AI-driven U.S. tech stocks will remain a global investment focus, while Chinese tech stocks are attracting more overseas investor attention due to significant valuation gaps and favorable industry conditions [2] - Citigroup's CEO expresses optimism about the Middle East's growth over the next decade, driven by investment inflows and emerging industries, while noting that the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession [4] Group 2 - Fitch raises global GDP growth expectations but notes a slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, projecting global growth to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year [5] - Wells Fargo anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times before mid-2026, reflecting a soft labor market and stable inflation expectations [6] - CITIC Securities highlights a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the medium to long term [8] - CITIC Securities expects the "pig cycle" effect to weaken by September, aiding improvements in CPI readings [9] - Huatai Securities predicts an improvement in profitability for bulk chemical products, with downstream products likely to recover first [10] - Guosheng Securities emphasizes the shift towards genetically modified crops and high-yield varieties in China's seed industry, driven by national food security policies [11] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes improving industry conditions in the cement sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies with advantageous valuations [12]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil is testing both the 50-day moving average and the downward trend line of a descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential breakout [1] - Momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening [1] - A confirmed breakout above the wedge's upper boundary could trigger short covering and new long positions, shifting market sentiment back to bullish [1] Group 2 - Gold mining stocks have significantly outperformed all sectors of the S&P 500 this year, reflecting typical stagflation market behavior [3] - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce from $3,600, with expectations for gold to reach nearly $4,000 per ounce by June 2026 [6] - The year-end target price for silver has also been increased to $44.7 per ounce [6] Group 3 - The CNN Fear and Greed Index is signaling a warning, with a bearish head and shoulders pattern forming, indicating potential market sentiment deterioration [8] - The neckline of this pattern is at the critical level of 50, and a breakdown could lead to increased risks for the overall market [8] Group 4 - There is an expectation for a rapid decline in gold prices in the days leading up to the FOMC decision, with specific projected pathways outlined [11]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 51 contracts rising and 27 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2] - The top gainers include 中证2509 (+3.44%), 中证1000 2509 (+2.94%), and 沪深2509 (+2.64%), reflecting strong demand in these sectors [5] - The largest capital inflows were seen in 沪深300 2509 (1.584 billion), 中证500 2509 (1.533 billion), and 上证50 2509 (680 million), suggesting significant interest from major funds [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% compared to the previous month, impacting supply levels [12] - The total inventory of float glass in China decreased by 2.33%, indicating improved demand and market conditions in most regions except for 华南 and 西南 [13] - The rebar steel production has seen a decline for two consecutive weeks, with a notable increase in social inventory, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [15] Commodity Specific Insights - Industrial silicon futures are stabilizing with a short-term upward trend, driven by market dynamics and potential policy changes affecting supply [22] - Coking coal futures are experiencing limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and market sentiment [23] - The European shipping index has dropped significantly by 5.28%, attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations and competitive pricing pressures [25] Future Outlook - Upcoming data releases include Brazil's soybean and corn production figures, which are expected to show record highs, and the U.S. CPI data that may influence market expectations [18][19] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is set to release its monthly supply and demand report, which may further impact agricultural commodity prices [20]

尽管这已促使几位知名人士呼吁降息，但也有少数其他人，如经济学家彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff），警告 称降息可能"只会损害劳动力市场"，理由是美元走弱、消费价格上涨以及长期利率可能上升。 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的"美联储利率工具"，目前市场预计美联储9月份降息25个基点的可能性为 93.7%，同时10月份再次降息的可能性为76%。 白宫方面，早些时候的就业数据修正再度引爆降息呼声。"正如劳工统计局辜负美国民众，'为时已 晚'的杰罗姆·鲍威尔同样如此——他已毫无借口可言，必须立即降息，"白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特 （Karoline Leavitt）在声明中表示。 尽管市场预计美联储将降息25个基点，但Zervos表示，进行更大幅度降息的理由是明确的。他说， 有"非常有说服力的理由"支持降息75个基点，但他不认为这能在政治上获得通过。"我认为这甚至不会 被提上议程。" Zervos说，美联储必须愿意根据不断变化的数据来改变路线。"我认为你可以提出一个论点，一个激进 的论点，那就是时候该彻底逆转，并说，'嘿，我们犯了一些错误'，"但他不认为美联储会这样做。 就业数据修正促使美联储降息 本周早些时候，美国劳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam plans to establish an online gold trading platform and allow gold imports for the first time in a decade, aiming to stabilize rapidly rising domestic gold prices and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background - Vietnam is focused on maintaining macroeconomic stability as one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing economies, with concerns about rapid credit expansion potentially leading to asset price bubbles [2]. - Gold is a popular investment choice in Vietnam, viewed as a wealth preservation tool, making the stabilization of domestic gold prices a key objective for the central bank [2]. - Domestic gold prices have surged by 60% this year, remaining approximately 23% higher than international market prices as of Thursday [2]. Group 2: Potential Trade-offs - Expanding gold imports may help cool domestic gold prices and reduce the price gap with international markets, but it could also exert pressure on the exchange rate [3]. - Increased gold imports will require the use of US dollars, leading to greater outflows of the currency [3]. - The recent decree from the central bank will end its monopoly on gold bar production, aiming to enhance supply channels and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The central bank will strengthen oversight of gold trading companies to prevent money laundering, speculation, smuggling, and illegal trading activities [4]. - Legal actions have been initiated against the former CEO of Saigon Jewellery, a contractor for gold bar production, for corruption and abuse of power [4].