美国总统特朗普周四表示，其政府可能最早于周五开始向贸易伙伴国发送通知函，单方面设定新的关税 税率。此举旨在为7月9日的谈判截止日期提前施压，迫使各国尽快与美国达成协议。 "我们可能明天就开始发函，大概每天发10个国家，告知他们若想与美国做生意，需要支付多少关 税，"特朗普在离开华盛顿前往爱荷华州参加活动时对记者表示。 他长期以来威胁称，如果各国未能在截止日期前与美国达成协议，他将直接单方面设定税率。特朗普承 认与170多个国家谈判的复杂性。他说他更倾向于通知大多数其他国家具体的关税税率，而跳过详细的 谈判。 尽管如此，市场仍对美越协议作出积极反应，在越南设厂的美国制造商股价应声上涨。然而，许多主要 贸易伙伴，如日本、韩国和欧盟，仍在努力敲定最终协议。 特朗普最初于4月2日宣布提高所谓"对等关税"，但给予各国90天谈判缓冲期，期间暂执行10%的统一税 率。截至目前，特朗普政府已宣布与英国和越南达成协议，并与中国达成关税休战。 当周四被问及是否会有更多协议达成时，特朗普回应称："我们还有几项协议在谈，但我的倾向是直接 发函，告诉他们该付多少关税。"他补充道："这样简单多了。" 周三，特朗普宣布了与越南的协议，称美 ...

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, better than expected, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [11] - The market has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and September following strong employment data [3][11] Trade and Tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that about 100 countries may face at least a 10% reciprocal tariff, with Trump set to inform trade partners about unilateral tariff rates [11] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House despite two Republican defections, with Trump expected to sign it [14] Oil Production - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [14] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, S&P 500 up 0.83%, and Nasdaq up over 1.02% [5] - European stock indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.61% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.55% [6] Commodity Prices - Spot gold fell significantly, dropping over $50 to a low of $3,311.65 before closing at $3,325.50 per ounce, down 0.94% [4][8] - WTI crude oil fluctuated around $66, closing down 0.58% at $66.23 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.39% to $68.51 [5][8] Chinese Market Developments - The A-share market saw all three major indices close in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.17% [7] - The biotechnology sector showed strength, with several stocks rising over 10% [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Middle East envoy, Wittekov, plans to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif in Oslo next week to restart nuclear negotiations, marking the first direct talks since military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities ordered by Trump [1] - Iranian officials have expressed openness to negotiations with Washington, but reiterated that Iran has no plans to halt uranium enrichment [1][2] - The recent military actions have resulted in significant casualties, with reports of dozens of Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists killed, and nearly 1,000 total casualties, including children [2] Group 2 - Iran has been enriching uranium to 60%, close to the 90% needed for nuclear weapons, raising concerns from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) [3] - Iranian officials maintain that their uranium enrichment policy remains unchanged and assert their right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) [3][4] - There are uncertainties regarding the whereabouts of 880 pounds of high-enriched uranium, with Iranian officials declining to comment on its status [4]

音频由扣子空间生成 数十年来，美国金融市场一直被视为全球最具吸引力的资本目的地之一，而股市回报通常也佐证了这一声誉。 但时间来到2025年，特朗普政府的关税政策、对美国政府债务飙升的担忧，以及美元失控式的贬值，让"美国例外论"可 能终达顶峰的说法开始流行。 德国、中国香港等地的股市今年飙升，将美国同行甩在身后——尽管标普500指数从4月关税引发的抛售中创纪录反弹， 已在一定程度上缩小了差距。但一位华尔街策略师警告，投资者不应过度解读这些短期波动。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 牛津大学研究数据显示，美国拥有26个AI计算数据中心，数量居全球之首（中国22个、欧盟28个、其他亚洲国家合计25 个）。 生产力领跑 美国劳动者堪称生产力巨头，2014年以来生产率提升17%，而欧元区和英国分别仅为5%和6%，加拿大则陷入停滞。辛格 指出，人工智能可能进一步增强劳动者高效完成任务的能力。 财富集中度 尽管数十年最严重的通胀浪潮挤压了数百万美国人的预算，但美国仍是全球最易创造巨额财富的地方之一：瑞银美国财 富管理最新报告显示，全球35%的财富集中于此，该国的百万富翁占全球的近40%。 四大核心优势支撑长期价值 F ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, questions the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the Fed's benchmark rate is "too high" [2] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - Yellen hints at the possibility of filling two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board next year, despite Jerome Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] Group 2 - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to pay federal obligations within the statutory limit since January, and once the tax and spending bill is signed into law, it is expected that the Treasury will increase the issuance of U.S. debt to replenish its cash reserves [3] - Yellen indicates that the debt management process is systematic but will consider unexpected circumstances, particularly in light of the two-year Treasury yield suggesting high overnight rates [3] - The next quarterly refinancing operation is scheduled for July 30, which typically announces adjustments to the issuance strategy [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for June fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.20% [1] - Average hourly wage growth for June was 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and the year-over-year growth was 3.7%, also below the expected 3.9% [1] Group 2 - Following the non-farm data release, traders reduced bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a September rate cut now at approximately 80%, down from 98% before the report [2] - The report indicated that job growth was primarily in government positions, with state and local government jobs increasing by 73,000, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000 [2] - The construction sector saw an increase of 15,000 jobs in June, marking the largest gain since December of the previous year [2] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the employment report does not urgently call for an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as job growth has consistently exceeded expectations [3] - The decline in the unemployment rate may be linked to shrinking immigrant labor, with the number of foreign-born workers decreasing to 32.6 million in June from 33.7 million in March [3] - The employment report provided support for the U.S. dollar, indicating a resilient labor market despite some moderation in private employment data [3]

Labor Market Overview - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1% [1][3] - The unemployment rate has been within a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024 [1] Employment by Demographics - The unemployment rate for Black individuals rose to 6.8%, while adult women and White individuals saw a decrease to 3.6% [1] - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of total unemployment [1] Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%, with the employment-population ratio steady at 59.7% [1] Part-Time Employment - The number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons was 4.5 million, showing little change [2] - There were 6 million individuals not in the labor force but willing to work, remaining stable from the previous month [2] Non-Farm Employment Growth - Non-farm employment growth was primarily in state government and healthcare sectors, with federal government jobs continuing to decline [3] - State government employment increased by 47,000, mainly in education, while federal jobs decreased by 7,000 [3] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare industry added 39,000 jobs in June, consistent with the average monthly increase of 43,000 over the past year [3] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings for private non-farm employees rose by $0.08 (0.2%) to $36.30, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% [4] - Average weekly hours for private non-farm employees slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours [5] Employment Adjustments - Revisions to previous months showed an increase in April's non-farm employment from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting a routine review of its monetary policy strategy, with significant attention on the outcomes due to past controversies surrounding similar reviews [1][2]. Group 1: Review Focus Areas - The review will focus on the "long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement" and communication tools [1]. - The results of the review are expected to be announced by late summer, with hints provided during a recent meeting led by Powell [1]. Group 2: Potential Changes in Strategy - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the review may lead to a softening of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy established in late 2020 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may reaffirm its response to "dual deviations" from maximum employment during normal times, potentially downplaying the term "shortfall" [2]. - There is a possibility of reverting to "flexible inflation targeting" as the primary strategy, while retaining the option for a "compensatory strategy" under certain conditions [2]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Dynamics - Critics argue that the current strategy may have contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Powell and senior economists disagree [2]. - The implementation of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy coincided with unique global economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have complicated inflation dynamics [2][3]. Group 4: Communication Strategy Adjustments - Adjustments to the Fed's communication strategy may have more significant implications than the informal abandonment of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy [4]. - Two specific suggestions for enhancing communication include providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and linking FOMC officials' economic and interest rate forecasts while maintaining anonymity [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's claims about the success of his administration's economic policies and legislative achievements, particularly emphasizing the "big and beautiful" plan [1] - It highlights the potential impact of the upcoming ADP employment data on market sentiment and Trump's likely reaction, which may involve blaming the Federal Reserve for any negative economic indicators [2] - The article notes that while the bond market is slowly aligning with Trump's views on interest rates, there is still no significant panic or deep concern reflected in current bond yields [2] Group 2 - Critics argue that the high interest rates are not solely the fault of the Federal Reserve but also due to the additional debt incurred by Trump and Congressional Republicans, which adds to the national debt burden [3] - Trump's public relations strategy has been effective in shifting blame for economic downturns to the Federal Reserve, despite the economy not showing signs of collapse yet [3] - The article warns that if the economy falters, Trump's exaggerated claims may backfire, leading to increased pressure on the dollar and bond markets, potentially resulting in higher long-term bond yields [3]