北京时间周四20:15，欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，符合市场预期，主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率维持在2.15%和2.40%不变。 欧洲央行并未对特定的利率路径做出预先承诺，并称将采取数据依赖和逐次会议的方式，来决定适当的货币政策立场。 欧洲央行利率决议公布后，欧元兑美元短线下挫，最低至1.1661，创近一周低点。 最新的季度预测显示，欧洲央行预计2025年通胀率为2.1%，2026年为1.7%，2027年为1.9%（6月预期分别为2.0%、1.6%、2.0%）；预计2025年核心通胀率为 2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.8%（6月预期分别为2.4%、1.9%、1.9%）。 经济增长前景方面，欧洲央行预计2025年GDP增长率为1.2%，2026年为1.0%，2027年为1.3%（6月预期分别为0.9%、1.1%、1.3%）。 机构分析师表示，最有趣的变化是对2027年通胀预期的调整：整体通胀率降至1.9%，核心通胀率降至1.8%。较低的2027年通胀预期可能会增加欧元的压 力，并让降息的猜测继续存在。 欧洲央行认为通胀压力得到控制，尽管美国提高了关税，但经济依然稳固。 该央行在一份声 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to show persistent inflation, with a projected month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, marking the highest level since January [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [1][2] - Tariff costs are expected to continue impacting overall inflation, with economists noting that the gradual implementation of tariffs helps avoid sharp price spikes in any given month [1][2] Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a month-over-month increase in core CPI of 0.36%, slightly above market expectations, pushing the year-over-year core CPI to 3.13% [2] - Ameriprise anticipates a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.4%, driven by rising tariff costs and food prices, with overall inflation expected to peak between 3.2% and 3.4% in November to December [3] - The impact of tariffs is seen as temporary, with expectations that inflation will peak and then begin to decline [3] Consumer Sentiment and Market Reactions - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 4.8%, significantly higher than market predictions of 2.6% [3] - The ongoing inflationary pressures are primarily driven by the service sector rather than goods prices, which are more directly affected by tariffs [5] - If CPI data exceeds expectations, it may indicate a loss of momentum in the inflation decline trend, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [5][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 72% chance of another cut in October [5] - The Federal Reserve's focus on employment data may be challenged by rising inflation, making future rate decisions more complex [5][6] - Ameriprise predicts a rate cut in September but does not foresee another cut in October due to accelerating inflation [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing willingness to increase exposure to China [1] - BlackRock indicates that AI-driven U.S. tech stocks will remain a global investment focus, while Chinese tech stocks are attracting more overseas investor attention due to significant valuation gaps and favorable industry conditions [2] - Citigroup's CEO expresses optimism about the Middle East's growth over the next decade, driven by investment inflows and emerging industries, while noting that the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession [4] Group 2 - Fitch raises global GDP growth expectations but notes a slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, projecting global growth to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year [5] - Wells Fargo anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times before mid-2026, reflecting a soft labor market and stable inflation expectations [6] - CITIC Securities highlights a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the medium to long term [8] - CITIC Securities expects the "pig cycle" effect to weaken by September, aiding improvements in CPI readings [9] - Huatai Securities predicts an improvement in profitability for bulk chemical products, with downstream products likely to recover first [10] - Guosheng Securities emphasizes the shift towards genetically modified crops and high-yield varieties in China's seed industry, driven by national food security policies [11] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes improving industry conditions in the cement sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies with advantageous valuations [12]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil is testing both the 50-day moving average and the downward trend line of a descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential breakout [1] - Momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening [1] - A confirmed breakout above the wedge's upper boundary could trigger short covering and new long positions, shifting market sentiment back to bullish [1] Group 2 - Gold mining stocks have significantly outperformed all sectors of the S&P 500 this year, reflecting typical stagflation market behavior [3] - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce from $3,600, with expectations for gold to reach nearly $4,000 per ounce by June 2026 [6] - The year-end target price for silver has also been increased to $44.7 per ounce [6] Group 3 - The CNN Fear and Greed Index is signaling a warning, with a bearish head and shoulders pattern forming, indicating potential market sentiment deterioration [8] - The neckline of this pattern is at the critical level of 50, and a breakdown could lead to increased risks for the overall market [8] Group 4 - There is an expectation for a rapid decline in gold prices in the days leading up to the FOMC decision, with specific projected pathways outlined [11]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 51 contracts rising and 27 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2] - The top gainers include 中证2509 (+3.44%), 中证1000 2509 (+2.94%), and 沪深2509 (+2.64%), reflecting strong demand in these sectors [5] - The largest capital inflows were seen in 沪深300 2509 (1.584 billion), 中证500 2509 (1.533 billion), and 上证50 2509 (680 million), suggesting significant interest from major funds [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% compared to the previous month, impacting supply levels [12] - The total inventory of float glass in China decreased by 2.33%, indicating improved demand and market conditions in most regions except for 华南 and 西南 [13] - The rebar steel production has seen a decline for two consecutive weeks, with a notable increase in social inventory, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [15] Commodity Specific Insights - Industrial silicon futures are stabilizing with a short-term upward trend, driven by market dynamics and potential policy changes affecting supply [22] - Coking coal futures are experiencing limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and market sentiment [23] - The European shipping index has dropped significantly by 5.28%, attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations and competitive pricing pressures [25] Future Outlook - Upcoming data releases include Brazil's soybean and corn production figures, which are expected to show record highs, and the U.S. CPI data that may influence market expectations [18][19] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is set to release its monthly supply and demand report, which may further impact agricultural commodity prices [20]

尽管这已促使几位知名人士呼吁降息，但也有少数其他人，如经济学家彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff），警告 称降息可能"只会损害劳动力市场"，理由是美元走弱、消费价格上涨以及长期利率可能上升。 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的"美联储利率工具"，目前市场预计美联储9月份降息25个基点的可能性为 93.7%，同时10月份再次降息的可能性为76%。 白宫方面，早些时候的就业数据修正再度引爆降息呼声。"正如劳工统计局辜负美国民众，'为时已 晚'的杰罗姆·鲍威尔同样如此——他已毫无借口可言，必须立即降息，"白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特 （Karoline Leavitt）在声明中表示。 尽管市场预计美联储将降息25个基点，但Zervos表示，进行更大幅度降息的理由是明确的。他说， 有"非常有说服力的理由"支持降息75个基点，但他不认为这能在政治上获得通过。"我认为这甚至不会 被提上议程。" Zervos说，美联储必须愿意根据不断变化的数据来改变路线。"我认为你可以提出一个论点，一个激进 的论点，那就是时候该彻底逆转，并说，'嘿，我们犯了一些错误'，"但他不认为美联储会这样做。 就业数据修正促使美联储降息 本周早些时候，美国劳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam plans to establish an online gold trading platform and allow gold imports for the first time in a decade, aiming to stabilize rapidly rising domestic gold prices and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background - Vietnam is focused on maintaining macroeconomic stability as one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing economies, with concerns about rapid credit expansion potentially leading to asset price bubbles [2]. - Gold is a popular investment choice in Vietnam, viewed as a wealth preservation tool, making the stabilization of domestic gold prices a key objective for the central bank [2]. - Domestic gold prices have surged by 60% this year, remaining approximately 23% higher than international market prices as of Thursday [2]. Group 2: Potential Trade-offs - Expanding gold imports may help cool domestic gold prices and reduce the price gap with international markets, but it could also exert pressure on the exchange rate [3]. - Increased gold imports will require the use of US dollars, leading to greater outflows of the currency [3]. - The recent decree from the central bank will end its monopoly on gold bar production, aiming to enhance supply channels and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The central bank will strengthen oversight of gold trading companies to prevent money laundering, speculation, smuggling, and illegal trading activities [4]. - Legal actions have been initiated against the former CEO of Saigon Jewellery, a contractor for gold bar production, for corruption and abuse of power [4].

经济学家们对日本央行年底利率的预测中值为0.75%，与上个月的调查持平。金融市场定价该央行年底 前加息的可能性超过50%。 日本央行副行长冰见野良三上周表示，该行应继续提高利率，但警告称全球经济不确定性仍然很高，暗 示其并不急于提高仍然很低的借贷成本。 音频由扣子空间生成 路透社的一项调查显示，多数经济学家认为，日本央行将在10-12月，即第四季度将其关键利率至少上 调25个基点，尽管这一比例已从一个月前的近三分之二有所下降。 在9月2日-9日的调查中，回答了一个额外问题的分析师中有93%表示，这（美联储降息）不会推迟日本 央行推行略微收紧的货币政策。 在接受调查的68位经济学家中，除了三位之外，所有人都预测日本央行在即将到来的9月18-19日政策会 议上不会改变利率，美联储则将于9月16-17日召开会议。 然而，66人中有55%（即36人）预计，该央行将在下个季度将借贷成本从0.50%至少提高到0.75%，这一 比例低于上个月调查的63%，但与7月份的54%持平。 伊藤忠经济研究所首席经济学家Atsushi Takeda说，"鉴于日元加速贬值和资产泡沫的风险，日本央行可 能会希望调整其当前的货币宽松立场。如 ...

疲软的就业数据与温和的生产者价格数据（PPI），让交易员认定美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上必然降息25个基 点，且年底前可能再跟进两次同等幅度的降息。 债券交易员正严阵以待一份高风险的美国通胀报告，该报告可能打乱他们的押注：即美联储本月起将开启一轮大幅 降息，并持续至2026年。 但除此之外，市场对经济风险平衡的判断已发生转变。目前的仓位布局显示，交易员认为美联储最终会将利率降 至"中性水平"以下，通过政策刺激增长以规避衰退。 这一转变堪称"巨变"：过去一年的大部分时间里，由于通胀表现顽固，交易员一直不敢押注如此大规模的宽松。在 当前格局下，周四发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告受到的关注度大幅提升。根据经济学家的共识预期，该报告预 计将显示核心CPI同比涨幅仍远高于美联储目标。 对美联储的降息押注已经推动美债在过去一个月反弹，其中美国2年期国债收益率跌至4月以来最低，但眼下的风险 是投资者可能已过度乐观。 "债市前端（短期债券）的定价反映的是经济疲软预期，而非对通胀的关注，"Columbia Threadneedle总回报债券基金 投资组合经理埃德·阿勒侯赛尼（Ed Al-Hussainy）表示，"若市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with various banks providing insights on potential future actions and economic conditions affecting this decision [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Several banks, including Scotiabank and HSBC, anticipate that the ECB will keep interest rates steady, with a cautious approach towards any future rate cuts [1][2]. - Bank of America suggests that ECB President Lagarde will mention the US-EU trade agreement while emphasizing flexibility without committing to future actions [3]. - Societe Generale predicts that the next rate cut may occur in the first quarter of next year, influenced by weakening inflation and increasing negative impacts from tariffs [4]. - UBS believes that the rate cut cycle may have ended due to large-scale fiscal stimulus measures being introduced in the EU, which are expected to support the economy starting next year [6]. - Danske Bank concludes that the easing cycle is likely over, with rates expected to remain unchanged until the end of next year due to unexpected growth and fiscal measures [7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and ECB's Position - Monex Group indicates that if Lagarde officially announces victory over inflation and signals the end of the current easing cycle, the euro may appreciate [8]. - French Foreign Trade Bank notes that a final rate cut of 25 basis points in December is possible, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market than anticipated [9]. - Berenberg Bank highlights that the market is focused on how the ECB will respond to political turmoil in France, although Lagarde is likely to remain silent on this matter [10]. - ING suggests that the current rationale for the ECB's inaction is strong, but the market may be underestimating the possibility of another rate cut this year [11].