民主党人称这种安排很荒谬。他们表示，考虑到特朗普将控制他是留在美联储理事会还是继续领取白宫 的薪水，他将独立于特朗普的说法是不可信的。 参议院银行委员会周三按党派路线投票，支持了美国总统特朗普的顾问米兰担任美联储理事的短期职 位，共和党人正迅速采取行动，以便在他下周参加利率制定会议前就位。 据一位熟悉计划的人士称，周三13票对11票的投票结果，使米兰有望在下周一于参议院全体会议上进行 可能的确认投票。目前尚不清楚是否能及时完成其余的确认程序，让米兰参加美联储9月议息会议。 一旦获得参议院确认，特朗普需要签署任命书，美联储也需要为米兰举行宣誓就职仪式。在最近的历史 中，从参议院确认到美联储宣誓就职的最快时间是四个工作日。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于该周晚些时候，即9月16日和17日举行会议，外界已普遍预计，由 于就业增长疲软，该委员会将进行自去年12月以来的首次降息。 目前担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的米兰告诉参议员们，他将以无薪休假的方式加入美联储，但目前尚 不清楚一旦临时职位结束，特朗普是会提名他担任一个完整的14年美联储任期，还是会要求他返回其白 宫职位。 一位熟悉确认程序的参议院共和党助手透露，米 ...

Core Points - Poland's Prime Minister Tusk has announced the intention to invoke NATO's Article 4 following alleged incursions of Russian drones into Polish airspace, labeling it an "act of aggression" [1] - A total of 19 drones reportedly violated Polish airspace, with some being shot down, prompting NATO's internal consultation process which could lead to collective action [1][2] - The incident is seen as a significant escalation in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about a potential direct confrontation between Russia and NATO [2] Summary by Sections NATO Article 4 Invocation - Tusk's request to activate NATO's Article 4 indicates a serious threat to Poland's territorial integrity and security, which could lead to collective defense discussions among NATO members [1] - The invocation of Article 4 has occurred seven times previously, including during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1] Incident Details - The drones reportedly threatened a Polish city located approximately 40 miles from the Ukrainian border, marking a notable scale of incursion [2] - NATO's response included the activation of Germany's Patriot missile system and the deployment of an Italian AWACS aircraft, highlighting the alliance's readiness to address threats [1][2] Russian Response - Russia's Defense Ministry stated it does not intend to target Poland and claimed that the drones that entered Polish airspace were not launched from Russian territory [2] - Russian officials suggested that the drones were likely from Ukraine, as Poland has not provided evidence linking the drones to Russia [2][3] Ukrainian Perspective - Ukraine has been actively promoting the narrative of the threat posed by Russian drones, seeking to encourage NATO's direct involvement in the conflict [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky noted the presence of eight drones and emphasized the need for a more integrated NATO air defense system to protect against such incursions [5] Political Reactions - U.S. lawmakers, particularly hawkish members, have called for immediate sanctions against Russia in response to the drone incursions, framing it as an act of war [5]

美国劳工统计局（BLS）周三公布的8月份生产者价格指数（PPI）报告显示批发通胀压力正在缓解，这降低了未来几个月消费者价格大幅上涨的可能性。 美国8月PPI年率录得2.6%，为6月以来新低，远低于预期的3.3%，前值从3.3%下修为3.1%；月率录得-0.1%，为四个月来的首次下滑，低于预期的0.3%，前 值从0.9%下修为0.7%。 美元指数短线下挫26点，最低至97.6。现货黄金短线上扬8美元，随后有所回落。非美货币对普涨，欧元兑美元短线上扬逾30点，最高至1.1729。美元兑日元 短线下挫40点，最低至147.11。美国股指期货短线上扬，标普500指数期货涨0.44%。 短期美国利率期货在PPI数据公布后上涨，交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注。美债集体反弹，美国10年期国债收益率跌0.6个基点，至4.068%。美国2年期 国债收益率下跌1.1个基点，至3.531%。美国30年期国债收益率上涨0.5个基点，至4.722%。 尽管特朗普的关税政策推高了企业成本，但上个月企业仍避免了大幅提价。此次PPI回落是在7月大幅上涨之后出现的，许多企业担心，在经济不确定性持续 影响消费决策的背景下，大幅加价可能会吓跑客户 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street expects the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show rising inflation, but the employment market will dominate market narratives, leading to moderate stock market volatility predictions [1][2] - Citigroup's U.S. equity trading strategist Stuart Kaiser indicates that options traders anticipate a mild fluctuation of about 0.7% in the S&P 500 index (SPX) post-CPI report, lower than the average actual volatility of 0.9% on CPI release days over the past year [1][2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting, with potential further cuts in October and December, influenced by signs of economic growth threats from weak employment data [1][2] Group 2 - Economists predict that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will rise by 0.3% month-over-month in August, maintaining a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][3] - JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler outlines various scenarios for the S&P 500's reaction based on core CPI readings, with probabilities assigned to different ranges of CPI increases [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a robust annualized GDP growth rate of 3% for Q3, despite a slight decline from Q2's 3.3%, contributing to a lower risk perception among traders in the coming weeks [3][4] Group 3 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical level of 20, indicating that traders are not overly concerned about market volatility [4] - Citigroup's U.S. Economic Surprise Index is near its highest level since January, suggesting that positive economic surprises could complicate the Fed's inflation control efforts, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates [5][6] - The employment market will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions; a rate cut in October may signal continued pressure on employment data and no unexpected inflation increases [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, highlighting his recent warnings about the labor market and his evolving relationship with the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: Waller's Economic Insights - Waller warned in July that private sector hiring was "approaching stall speed," indicating a potential downturn in the labor market, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% at that time [2]. - His predictions were validated by subsequent weak employment reports in July and August, reinforcing his credibility as an economist [2]. - Waller's ability to articulate a coherent framework for interest rate cuts has enhanced his reputation on Wall Street, distinguishing him from other candidates who may lack such qualities [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Waller's chances for the Fed Chair position appear limited due to his lack of visibility within Trump's inner circle and the political advisors associated with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has begun interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair position, with Waller being one of the three strong contenders mentioned by Trump, alongside Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [2][3]. - The political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve has become contentious, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the institution's traditional independence and targeting Fed officials he disagrees with [3]. Group 3: Waller's Background and Qualifications - Waller's unique background, having spent much of his career in academia before joining the St. Louis Fed, allows him to communicate effectively with diverse audiences [5]. - His experience includes navigating complex economic discussions, which he believes is essential for formulating monetary policy [5][6]. - Waller's previous challenges to economic orthodoxy, particularly regarding interest rate hikes, have drawn both criticism and validation from the economic community [6]. Group 4: Current Economic Context - As of July, most Fed officials were cautious due to inflation remaining above the 2% target for four consecutive years, influenced by tariffs imposed by Trump [6]. - Waller argues that the Fed should focus on preventing labor market deterioration and consider interest rate cuts despite temporary price effects from tariffs [6][7]. - His recent vocal opposition to prevailing economic policies may be seen as a strategic move to position himself favorably for the Fed Chair role [7].

Group 1: Global Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that global hedge funds' net purchases of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024, with a 76 basis points increase in positions, marking a two-year peak [1] - ANZ raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3600 to $3800 per ounce, expecting gold to reach nearly $4000 per ounce by June 2026 [2] - Barclays increased its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 from 6050 to 6450 points, and for the end of 2026 from 6700 to 7000 points [2] - Deutsche Bank also raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 from 6550 to 7000 points, citing positive corporate earnings growth and manageable tariff impacts [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Developments - CICC noted that the photovoltaic industry is at a critical observation point for "anti-involution," with operational pressures easing but debt levels remaining high [5] - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the development of AI servers is driving demand for high-end copper foil, with domestic manufacturers expected to benefit from this growth [6] - CITIC Securities projected that the scale of listed companies' deposits transitioning to wealth management could reach several hundred billion yuan in the next year [7] - CITIC Securities also recommended focusing on companies in the silicon-based materials industry that are extending into high-growth downstream sectors [8] - CITIC JianTou reported that the property management industry is shifting towards high-quality development, with leading companies maintaining strong positions [9] - Huatai Securities indicated that core real estate companies are showing resilience despite the overall market being in a bottoming phase [11] - Zhongtai International expressed a cautious optimism for the capital market in the second half of the year, while maintaining a positive outlook on gold [12]

Group 1 - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed new sanctions against Israel in response to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, emphasizing the need to stop the man-made famine caused by the conflict [2][3] - The EU has already suggested suspending future research funding to Israel's private sector due to its military actions in Gaza and the restrictions on aid transport [2][5] - There is significant disagreement among EU member states regarding the sanctions, with countries like Hungary and Germany opposing them, arguing that such measures would hinder communication channels [2][4] Group 2 - The proposed sanctions include targeting Israeli extremist ministers and violent settlers, as well as partially suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which covers trade [3][4] - Von der Leyen acknowledged the difficulty in gaining majority support for the sanctions but urged member states to take responsibility [4] - The EU Commission plans to establish a "Palestinian Donor Group" to provide funding for the reconstruction of Gaza, responding to pressure from various stakeholders, including protests in multiple European cities [5]

Core Insights - The first meme coin ETF in the U.S., the Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE), is set to launch, marking a significant expansion of regulated crypto products following the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs [2][3] - The approval of the Dogecoin ETF indicates a growing institutional interest in meme coins, highlighting their perceived value beyond mere speculation [3][4] Group 1: ETF Launch and Market Impact - The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF will debut on Thursday, with Dogecoin entering the ETF era, following a 17% increase in its value over the past week due to market anticipation [2] - The ETF is distributed by Foreside Fund Services and supported by REX Shares and Osprey Funds, which previously launched a Solana staking ETF [2] Group 2: Institutional Interest and Market Trends - The launch of the Dogecoin ETF is seen as a watershed moment, with industry leaders noting that institutional investors are beginning to recognize the community and cultural value of meme coins [3] - The SEC is currently evaluating numerous other cryptocurrency-focused ETF proposals, with 92 such proposals in the pipeline, indicating a broader trend towards acceptance of digital assets [3][4] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The initial wave of cryptocurrency ETFs focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF launch in early 2024 expected to attract significant capital [4] - The approval of the Dogecoin ETF reflects a shift in the SEC's stance towards digital assets, recognizing tokenization as a financial innovation [4]

Group 1 - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, raising questions about the feasibility of the 2% inflation target [1][2] - The core CPI is projected to rise to 3.1% year-on-year in August, up from 2.9% in July, making a policy easing at such inflation levels a rare occurrence [1][2] - Historical context shows that the last time the Fed eased policy with core PCE inflation at 3% was in the early 1990s, indicating a significant shift in economic norms [1] Group 2 - Hawkish concerns about inflation persist, especially with U.S. federal debt and deficits at historical highs, yet financial markets appear relatively unconcerned [2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, reflecting some inflation worries, but overall market sentiment does not seem overly anxious about the Fed's 2% target [2] - The yield curve for 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries has steepened by about 70 basis points this year, indicating market dynamics that may not align with traditional inflation fears [2] Group 3 - Consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with the New York Fed reporting a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 3.2%, suggesting that 3% may be replacing 2% as the new target [3] - Surveys indicate that consumers' long-term inflation expectations are stabilizing around 3%, with political influences potentially pushing for a higher target [3] Group 4 - Some analysts argue that the focus on exceeding the 2% inflation target may be misguided, citing that the average CPI over the past two years has been 2.9% [4] - Historical comparisons suggest that a 2% inflation target may no longer be relevant, with calls for a more pragmatic approach to monetary policy [4] - If inflation data reaches 3% and the Fed cuts rates, it could signal a significant shift in monetary policy direction [4]

Recent Key Events - On August 2, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Kuger announced his resignation, providing Trump an opportunity to appoint a favored candidate within the Federal Reserve [1] - On August 8, 2025, Trump nominated Stephen Milan for the Federal Reserve Governor position, with a Senate committee vote expected this week and a full Senate vote potentially next Monday, allowing Milan to attend the FOMC meeting on September 18 [1] - On August 22, 2025, Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, signaling a clear dovish stance by shifting the policy focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing employment risks," interpreted by the market as a precursor to a rate cut in September [1] - On August 23, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the results of its long-term monetary policy framework review, stating it would abandon the average inflation targeting and adopt a "balanced approach" when employment and inflation conflict, acknowledging that employment can exceed maximum levels without posing risks [1] - On August 26, 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, who has since filed a lawsuit; on September 10, a U.S. judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to fire Cook, issuing an injunction allowing Cook to continue in his role during the lawsuit [1] Future Important Milestones - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting and release new economic forecasts, with the market widely expecting a resumption of the rate cut cycle, particularly following recent weak employment data that has increased expectations for a 50 basis point cut [3] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold another policy meeting, which will be crucial in determining whether to pause or continue rate cuts, especially if a 50 basis point cut occurs in September [3] - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve will conduct its final policy meeting of the year, which may be pivotal for a potential third (or second) rate cut and will influence market expectations for 2026 policies [3] - In May 2026, the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will end, with the option for him to continue as a Federal Reserve Governor until January 31, 2028, if he chooses to remain [3] - In November 2026, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, where a significant Republican victory could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading Congress to push legislation to undermine its autonomy at the White House's request [3]