对于铜价走势，国投期货表示，沪铜短线在MA40日均线有支撑，反映了价格下调后带来节前中下游点 价备货机会，预计周内社库可能下降。美国标普制造业PMI拉升到50以上，一季度铜精矿供应最紧，且 在北半球春季消费不能证伪前铜价易高位震荡。不过，当前整体全球铜显性库存高，关注节前备货强度 与持续性，春节前后价格仍可能下调到MA60日均线。 （文华综合） 美国1月ISM制造业PMI为52.6，表现远高于预期和前值，是近一年来首次进入扩张区间，增速创下自 2022年以来最快水平，主要受新订单和产出稳健增长的提振，隔夜美指继续反弹。不过贵金属行情有所 企稳，期市悲观情绪宣泄后，部分金属开始企稳。 2月3日中国有色金属工业协会举行的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中国有色金属工 业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，未来，行业协会将继续配合国家有关部门严格管控新增矿铜冶炼项目，从 源头上改善外采比逐年提升的现状。他还表示，完善铜资源储备体系建设，一方面扩大国家铜战略储备 规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。此外， 除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入 ...

沪铜午后快速拉升，目前主力合约涨幅在2%附近。有色工业协会表示将配合有关部门严控新增矿铜冶炼项目，还将完善铜资源储备体系建设，提振铜价走 强。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices rebounded on February 3 after two consecutive days of decline, supported by supply concerns and demand outlook [1] - The most active March copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.60% to 104,500 yuan per ton, while LME three-month copper increased by 3.92% to 13,397 USD per ton [1] - Despite a significant drop in copper prices in the previous days, the fundamental logic for copper prices remains solid, with strong demand from electrification and AI data centers [1] Group 2 - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw declines, with aluminum down 0.96% to 23,810 yuan per ton, zinc down 0.79% to 24,960 yuan per ton, lead down 0.98% to 16,640 yuan per ton, and nickel down 1.25% to 134,830 yuan per ton [2] - In contrast, LME metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up 1.19% to 3,092.50 USD per ton, zinc up 0.65% to 3,345 USD, lead up 0.64% to 1,975.50 USD, nickel up 3.14% to 17,355 USD, and tin up 4.96% to 48,900 USD [2]

美国总统特朗普周一宣布，建立一个关键的矿产储备。 特朗普在白宫表示:"今天，我们将启动名为Project Vault的项目，以确保美国企业和工人永远不会受到任 何短缺的伤害。" 美国内政部长Doug Burgum表示，本周晚些时候将宣布另外11个国家加入这一计划。 特朗普表示，该计划将整合100亿美元的美国进出口银行(EXIM)融资和20亿美元的私营部门资金。 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦镍库存先增后降，1月29日库存增至逾七年新高，而后 库存开始下滑，最新库存水平为285,528吨。 上期所公布的数据显示，1月30日当周，沪镍库存继续累积，目前已连增五周，周度库存增加9.06%至 55,396吨，再刷近八年新高。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所镍库存对比 | 以下为2026年1月以来LME和上期所镍库存数据：（单位：吨） | | --- | | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/2/2 | 285, 528 | | | 2026/1/30 | 286, 284 | 55, 396 | | 2026/1/29 | 286, 470 | | | 2026/1/28 | 286, 338 | | | 2026/1/27 | 285, 726 | | | 2026/1/26 | 285, 552 | | | 2026/1/23 | 283, 728 | 50, 794 | | 2026/1/22 | 284, 496 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed restrictions by the European Commission on aluminum waste exports are deemed unnecessary and potentially harmful to the circular economy by the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) [1] Group 1: Proposed Restrictions - The European Commission plans to limit aluminum waste exports to prevent a significant outflow from the EU, which could lead to supply shortages in the industry [1] - The European Aluminium Association supports the proposed restrictions and urges policymakers to impose export fees on aluminum waste [1] Group 2: Industry Response - BIR argues that the idea of restricting aluminum waste exports is neither necessary nor effective, stating that the EU generates more aluminum waste than it can process domestically [1] - Current data does not support the claim of structural "waste leakage" as a valid reason for intervention [1] Group 3: Economic Implications - BIR warns that export restrictions could lead to an oversupply of aluminum waste in the EU, negatively impacting prices and placing recyclers in an unsustainable economic position [1] - Such restrictions could ultimately reduce collection and recycling rates, increasing the risk of unmanaged waste streams and undermining the circular economy [1] Group 4: Future Actions - The European Commission is expected to propose measures regarding aluminum waste before the second quarter of this year [1]

2024年通过的《欧盟关键原材料法案》（Critical Raw Materials Act, CRMA）制定了提升34种战略材料 本土供应能力的计划。这些材料包括锂、锑、钨、铜和稀土元素，广泛用于制造半导体、风力涡轮机和 炮弹等产品。 前景不容乐观 该法案设定了2030年的非约束性目标：届时欧盟应开采其所需矿产的10%，将这些材料的回收能力提升 至15%，并能够加工其每年每种战略原材料需求的40%。 然而，审计院在一份报告中指出："前景并不乐观。按目前情况，能源转型所需的26种材料中，有7种的 回收率仅为1%至5%，另有10种则完全未被回收。" 报告将此归咎于缺乏针对具体材料的激励措施。 报告还警告："欧盟旨在到2030年实现40%加工自给率的能力建设正在倒退——部分加工厂因高昂的能 源成本而关闭，这严重削弱了产业竞争力。" 此外，欧盟与第三国建立的关键原材料战略伙伴关系也尚未显现成效。 欧洲审计院（ECA）周一表示，欧盟在减少对外依赖、实现科技、国防和能源转型所需关键金属与矿产 进口多元化方面的努力"尚未取得实质性成果"。 "过去五年，欧盟签署了14项原材料战略伙伴关系协议，其中7项是与治理水平较低的国家 ...

Group 1 - The commodity market experienced a significant decline, with gold, silver, crude oil, and industrial metals leading the drop, following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which triggered market sell-offs [1][4] - Gold prices fell by 5%, reaching a two-week low, while silver saw a decline of over 7% [3] - The MSCI global index dropped by 0.5%, marking a cumulative decline of 1.5% since its record high on January 27 [2] Group 2 - Crude oil prices decreased by nearly 5% from recent highs, and LME copper fell by 3% [4] - The market had anticipated a successor to Powell who would promote aggressive monetary easing, but Warsh's appointment disrupted this expectation, strengthening the dollar and making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies [4][5] - The recent sell-off in precious metals was exacerbated by the CME Group's announcement to raise margin requirements for metal futures contracts, leading to a significant increase in forced liquidations [6] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the current market conditions reflect a synchronized sell-off of precious metals and equities, indicating that investors perceive Warsh's stance as more hawkish, which could lead to higher interest rates for an extended period [5] - The energy market also faced downward pressure due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with reports suggesting that Iran is engaging in serious dialogue with Washington [6][7] - Concerns about high inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday are impacting copper and iron ore markets, with expectations of reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches [7]

Group 1 - Eldorado Gold has agreed to acquire Foran Mining, a Canadian mining company focused on copper development, with a transaction valuation of approximately CAD 3.8 billion (around USD 2.8 billion) [2] - This acquisition will expand Eldorado's presence in the copper sector and add a second growth project set to commence production, addressing the increasing copper demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments [2] - The merger will integrate Eldorado's Skouries gold-copper project in Greece with Foran's McIlvenna Bay copper project in Saskatchewan, Canada, both of which are expected to enter commercial production by mid-2026 [2] Group 2 - The combined entity is projected to produce approximately 900,000 ounces of gold equivalent by 2027 [2] - Post-merger, the asset portfolio is expected to have around 77% exposure to gold and 15% to copper, with operational mines and development projects in Canada, Greece, and Turkey [2] - Eldorado anticipates that the merged business will generate about USD 2.1 billion in core profits and USD 1.5 billion in free cash flow by 2027, along with plans to increase exploration spending across its asset portfolio, including Foran's Tesla project in Saskatchewan [2]

凯文·沃什获美联储主席提名，其偏鹰派的政策倾向引发投资者对货币政策收紧和美元走强的担忧，风 险偏好迅速降温，带动整个有色金属板块承压。前期积累的大量多头头寸集中平仓，形成踩踏效应，短 时间内加剧了市场流动性紧张，导致价格急挫。 （文华综合） 近日贵金属暴跌，恐慌情绪蔓延至有色金属板块，隔夜沪锡继续大幅下挫，今日盘初跌幅有所收窄，但 主力合约跌幅仍超9%，沪镍偏弱震荡，主力合约跌超2%。 ...