》查看更多金属库存信息 LME铅库存 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 增减 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 159425 | 1 +2,250 1 +1.43% | | 铝 | 539050 | ب -2.000 ↓ -0.37% | | 锌 | 51750 | 1 +950 ↑ +1.87% | | 煌 | 254760 | - -690 J -0.27% | | 铝 | 263175 | - -1.000 J -0.38% | | 锡 | 3160 | 1 +35 ↑ +1.12% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 金屋 | 库 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 | | 变动 | | 注销占比 上日占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 159425 | 152850 | - +1.16% | 6575 | T | +8.23% | 4.12% | 3.87% | | 铝 | 539050 | 485575 | · 0.00 ...

对于铜价，新湖期货表示，本周降息预期升温，宏观情绪好转，叠加铜供需偏紧的基本面，铜价偏强运 行。近期铜价回落提振国内消费，国内库存小幅去化；LME库存虽有所累库，但库存绝对量偏低，全 球非美市场铜库存整体亦处于低位，低库存给予铜价向上弹性。 现货市场采销氛围一般。市场上货源相对有限，升水继续支撑上行，铜价走势震荡偏强，下游消费亦无 亮点，周末前按需补库。今日好铜稀少升水坚挺，平水铜部分品牌维持较大价差，鲁方祥光等部分报价 最高接近百元水平，中条山ISA报价站稳平水上方小幅升水，湿法铜报价稀少，非注册听闻在贴180上 下。 （文华综合 编辑：孙榕） 沪铜早间小幅低开，随后持续走强，收盘上涨0.41%。最近美联储降息预期较强，宏观氛围偏暖，铜市 供应端存在支撑，国内社库也有回落，铜价继续偏强震荡。 日本矿业协会（JMIA）负责人周四表示，日本铜冶炼厂正在和全球矿产商就2026年加工精炼费(TC/RC) 进行谈判，寻求达成与中国设定的基准不同的协议。临近年底，各国冶炼商和矿商对于明年长单加工费 的谈判正在进行当中，当前的现货加工费极低，部分冶炼厂认为当前加工费已触及自身承受的底线水 平，继续下探的空间不大。 铜价高 ...

Group 1 - The Panamanian government will release a preliminary report on the comprehensive audit of First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama copper mine next week, with a final report expected by the end of February, which will guide the government's next steps for the stalled project [1] - The independent review led by SGS Panama Control Services covers environmental compliance, legal labor issues, tax matters, operational processes, and potential environmental liabilities, and the results will influence future negotiations regarding the mine [1] - The Cobre Panama copper mine was one of the largest in the world before its suspension, with a production of 350,000 tons in 2022, accounting for approximately 5% of Panama's GDP [2] Group 2 - First Quantum Minerals stated that if the mine continued operations, it could contribute $1 billion to the national treasury and generate $2 billion in benefits for local suppliers [2] - The company acknowledged the significant challenges facing the project and emphasized the need to find solutions that balance the interests of stakeholders, the government, and the Panamanian public [2] - The mine has been inactive for about 18 months due to large-scale protests that led to the contract being declared unconstitutional, and restarting operations will take six to nine months, with longer to reach the rated capacity of 10 million tons per year [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to concerns over weak demand, despite reaching a near one-month high in the previous trading session [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, LME three-month copper fell by $35.5, or 0.32%, closing at $10,939.5 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced price changes, with three-month aluminum down by $32.5 (1.14%), three-month zinc down by $41.5 (1.36%), while three-month lead and nickel saw slight increases [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December led to a peak copper price of $11,025 on November 26, the highest since October 30 [4] - Supply disruptions in mining contributed to a historical high of $11,200 for copper on October 29 [4] - The focus of the metal market shifted to weak demand from major consuming countries due to the U.S. market being closed for Thanksgiving [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Inventory - Technically, copper found support at the 21-day moving average cut-off of $10,813 [5] - Comex copper inventory reached 378,900 tons, continuing to rise from a historical high last week, while LME registered warehouse copper inventory reported at 157,175 tons, down 42% year-to-date [5] - Concerns about tight inventories outside the U.S. have intensified, with LME spot copper contracts showing a premium of $20 per ton at the end of Thursday [5]

Group 1 - Copper prices in Shanghai rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the most active January copper contract closing at 86,990 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price decreased by 55.5 USD or 0.51%, settling at 10,919.50 USD per ton, while it had previously reached a high of 11,025 USD per ton [1] - Analysts from ING reported that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to over 80%, compared to approximately 30% a week prior [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. data indicated weak retail sales and declining consumer confidence, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - Global copper supply is tight, with Codelco pushing for a premium of 350 USD per ton for its 2026 annual contracts, significantly higher than the 89 USD per ton agreed upon this year [2] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026, with a 2.3% increase in global copper mine production expected [2] Group 3 - In the Shanghai market, various metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum and tin prices rising, while lead and nickel prices fell [3] - The three-month LME prices for aluminum, zinc, and lead experienced slight declines, while nickel and tin prices saw minor increases [3]

Core Insights - The global copper market is expected to shift to a supply shortage of 150,000 tons by 2026, according to Paul White, Secretary-General of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) [2] - Global copper mine production is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2026, while apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by 2.1% in the coming year [2] - The growth rate of copper production is anticipated to slow to 0.9% in 2026, down from a forecasted 3.4% in 2025 [2] Industry Challenges - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for base metal prices upward due to favorable recent momentum amid rising prices [1] Price Forecast Adjustments - Copper's average price is now expected to be $10,500 per ton by year-end, up from the previous estimate of $9,600 [1] - Aluminum's average price forecast has increased from $2,600 to $2,900 [1] - Zinc price forecast has been raised from $2,800 to $3,000 [1] Nickel Price Adjustment - Nickel price forecast has been lowered from $16,000 per ton to $15,000 due to slowing production growth and continued ample supply, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] Market Dynamics - After a brief decline earlier in the month, U.S. imported aluminum premiums have surged to record highs due to domestic shortages and a 50% tariff, alongside tightening global supply [1] - LME inventories have decreased since mid-October, indicating that the supply effects driven by tariffs may be diminishing, while a significant inventory increase at the end of October may be related to a trader's financial transaction replenishment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices are experiencing an upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.11% to 302,200 yuan/ton, driven by increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and heightened tensions in eastern Congo, although there has been no substantial impact on tin mining production yet [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with domestic smelters facing raw material supply constraints, leading to a low operating rate [1] - Domestic smelters have raw material inventories generally below 30 days, making it difficult for operating rates to increase in the near future [1] - The import volume of tin concentrate in China saw a slight increase in October, with imports from Congo and other countries rebounding, aligning with expectations, although affected by shipping factors [1] - Tin ore imports from Myanmar decreased slightly in October, but with mining permit approvals, an increase of over 2,000 tons is expected in November [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent commentary from New Lake Futures indicates that domestic production remains stable overall, but tin ore supply continues to be tight, and smelters are facing low processing fees, resulting in poor profitability [1] - There is a trend of weakening consumption in the domestic market, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory, although overall inventory levels remain low, limiting pressure [1] - Overseas inventories are also at low levels, and uncertainties regarding overseas mining operations continue to support high tin prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for base metal prices upward due to favorable recent momentum amid rising prices [1] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - The average price forecast for copper has been increased to $10,500 per ton from the previous $9,600 [1] - The average price forecast for aluminum has been raised from $2,600 to $2,900 [1] - The zinc price forecast has been adjusted upward from $2,800 to $3,000 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current strong copper prices may be premature, leaving room for short-term corrections due to supply conditions [1] - Nickel price forecast has been lowered from $16,000 per ton to $15,000 due to slowing production growth and continued ample supply, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - U.S. imported aluminum premiums have surged to record highs due to domestic shortages and a 50% tariff, alongside tightening global supply [1] - LME inventories have declined since mid-October, indicating that the supply effects driven by tariffs may be diminishing, with a potential inventory increase at the end of October linked to a trader's financial transaction replenishment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tin prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising over 2% [3] - The production of tin in the Wa State is beginning to recover, but the increase in output for the year is limited [3] - The tin production in the Democratic Republic of Congo is facing disruptions due to local conditions, which is contributing to the strengthening of tin prices [3]