Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to concerns over weak demand, despite reaching a near one-month high in the previous trading session [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, LME three-month copper fell by $35.5, or 0.32%, closing at $10,939.5 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced price changes, with three-month aluminum down by $32.5 (1.14%), three-month zinc down by $41.5 (1.36%), while three-month lead and nickel saw slight increases [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December led to a peak copper price of $11,025 on November 26, the highest since October 30 [4] - Supply disruptions in mining contributed to a historical high of $11,200 for copper on October 29 [4] - The focus of the metal market shifted to weak demand from major consuming countries due to the U.S. market being closed for Thanksgiving [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Inventory - Technically, copper found support at the 21-day moving average cut-off of $10,813 [5] - Comex copper inventory reached 378,900 tons, continuing to rise from a historical high last week, while LME registered warehouse copper inventory reported at 157,175 tons, down 42% year-to-date [5] - Concerns about tight inventories outside the U.S. have intensified, with LME spot copper contracts showing a premium of $20 per ton at the end of Thursday [5]

Group 1 - Copper prices in Shanghai rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the most active January copper contract closing at 86,990 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price decreased by 55.5 USD or 0.51%, settling at 10,919.50 USD per ton, while it had previously reached a high of 11,025 USD per ton [1] - Analysts from ING reported that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to over 80%, compared to approximately 30% a week prior [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. data indicated weak retail sales and declining consumer confidence, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - Global copper supply is tight, with Codelco pushing for a premium of 350 USD per ton for its 2026 annual contracts, significantly higher than the 89 USD per ton agreed upon this year [2] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026, with a 2.3% increase in global copper mine production expected [2] Group 3 - In the Shanghai market, various metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum and tin prices rising, while lead and nickel prices fell [3] - The three-month LME prices for aluminum, zinc, and lead experienced slight declines, while nickel and tin prices saw minor increases [3]

Core Insights - The global copper market is expected to shift to a supply shortage of 150,000 tons by 2026, according to Paul White, Secretary-General of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) [2] - Global copper mine production is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2026, while apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by 2.1% in the coming year [2] - The growth rate of copper production is anticipated to slow to 0.9% in 2026, down from a forecasted 3.4% in 2025 [2] Industry Challenges - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for base metal prices upward due to favorable recent momentum amid rising prices [1] Price Forecast Adjustments - Copper's average price is now expected to be $10,500 per ton by year-end, up from the previous estimate of $9,600 [1] - Aluminum's average price forecast has increased from $2,600 to $2,900 [1] - Zinc price forecast has been raised from $2,800 to $3,000 [1] Nickel Price Adjustment - Nickel price forecast has been lowered from $16,000 per ton to $15,000 due to slowing production growth and continued ample supply, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] Market Dynamics - After a brief decline earlier in the month, U.S. imported aluminum premiums have surged to record highs due to domestic shortages and a 50% tariff, alongside tightening global supply [1] - LME inventories have decreased since mid-October, indicating that the supply effects driven by tariffs may be diminishing, while a significant inventory increase at the end of October may be related to a trader's financial transaction replenishment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices are experiencing an upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.11% to 302,200 yuan/ton, driven by increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and heightened tensions in eastern Congo, although there has been no substantial impact on tin mining production yet [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with domestic smelters facing raw material supply constraints, leading to a low operating rate [1] - Domestic smelters have raw material inventories generally below 30 days, making it difficult for operating rates to increase in the near future [1] - The import volume of tin concentrate in China saw a slight increase in October, with imports from Congo and other countries rebounding, aligning with expectations, although affected by shipping factors [1] - Tin ore imports from Myanmar decreased slightly in October, but with mining permit approvals, an increase of over 2,000 tons is expected in November [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent commentary from New Lake Futures indicates that domestic production remains stable overall, but tin ore supply continues to be tight, and smelters are facing low processing fees, resulting in poor profitability [1] - There is a trend of weakening consumption in the domestic market, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory, although overall inventory levels remain low, limiting pressure [1] - Overseas inventories are also at low levels, and uncertainties regarding overseas mining operations continue to support high tin prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for base metal prices upward due to favorable recent momentum amid rising prices [1] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - The average price forecast for copper has been increased to $10,500 per ton from the previous $9,600 [1] - The average price forecast for aluminum has been raised from $2,600 to $2,900 [1] - The zinc price forecast has been adjusted upward from $2,800 to $3,000 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current strong copper prices may be premature, leaving room for short-term corrections due to supply conditions [1] - Nickel price forecast has been lowered from $16,000 per ton to $15,000 due to slowing production growth and continued ample supply, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - U.S. imported aluminum premiums have surged to record highs due to domestic shortages and a 50% tariff, alongside tightening global supply [1] - LME inventories have declined since mid-October, indicating that the supply effects driven by tariffs may be diminishing, with a potential inventory increase at the end of October linked to a trader's financial transaction replenishment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tin prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising over 2% [3] - The production of tin in the Wa State is beginning to recover, but the increase in output for the year is limited [3] - The tin production in the Democratic Republic of Congo is facing disruptions due to local conditions, which is contributing to the strengthening of tin prices [3]

Group 1 - Mitsubishi Materials plans to reduce primary copper smelting volume by 30%-40% by fiscal year 2035, shifting focus to secondary smelting to enhance profitability [1] - The company faces challenges due to a significant drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) and shrinking smelting profit margins, attributed to tight concentrate supply [1] - Mitsubishi Materials announced a 25% year-on-year reduction in refined copper production at its Onahama smelter from October to March of the following year [1] Group 2 - The company intends to integrate its copper concentrate procurement with its copper product sales business into domestic competitor Pan Pacific Copper [1] - A new three-year business plan was introduced, emphasizing a transition from primary copper operations to utilizing electronic waste for secondary smelting, with plans to build new secondary smelting plants in Europe and the U.S. [1] - The president, Tetsuya Tanaka, highlighted the importance of transitioning to profitable electronic waste processing for sustainable development, given the expectation of continued low processing fees [1] Group 3 - Mitsubishi Materials aims to double its secondary smelting capacity by 2035, although refined copper production is expected to decline by 20%-30% from the current annual level of approximately 400,000 tons due to the reduction in primary smelting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a near one-month high, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and a shift in metal flows to U.S. inventories, suggesting further price increases ahead [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On November 26, LME three-month copper rose by $157, or 1.45%, closing at $10,975.00 per ton, marking the highest level since October 30 [2]. - The copper price hit a historical high of $11,200 per ton on October 29, amid concerns over tightening supply from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [4]. - Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING, indicated that the upward risk for copper is increasing due to supply challenges, low inventories, and ongoing trade distortions, predicting a tightening supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - Nicholas Snowdon from Mercuria noted a surplus of 350,000 to 400,000 tons in the global cathode copper market this year, while there is a 500,000-ton deficit in copper concentrate, a situation expected to persist into next year [4]. - Snowdon emphasized that LME copper prices need to rise to attract copper back from the U.S. to the global market, where the U.S. currently holds 70% of global cathode copper inventories, potentially increasing to 90% by Q1 2026 [4]. - LME registered warehouse copper inventories have decreased by 42% this year, with significant metal flows directed to the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $60.50, or 2.16%, closing at $2,861.00 [2]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $63.50, or 2.12%, closing at $3,056.50 [2]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $1.00, or 0.05%, closing at $1,979.50 [2]. - LME three-month tin increased by $444.00, or 1.18%, closing at $37,991.00, the highest since April 2, driven by fund activity and ongoing supply concerns [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to tighten again next year, leading to new highs in copper concentrate and refined copper prices, with a projected shortfall of approximately 500,000 tons in the global copper concentrate market [1] - The limited supply growth and increasing demand from new smelters outside of China are the main reasons for the anticipated shortfall, which is consistent with this year's situation [1] - The refined copper market is currently experiencing an oversupply of 350,000 to 400,000 tons, a significant revision from the previous estimate of a 300,000-ton shortfall made in May [1] Group 2 - Mercuria, along with other energy traders like BGN and Gunvor, is expanding into metal trading, betting on structural changes in the global energy system to be profitable [2] - Over the past 12 months, Mercuria has invested nearly $2 billion, trading approximately 1 million tons of copper and 1.5 million tons of copper concentrate [2]