Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices have declined due to a strong dollar and concerns over weak demand, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 22% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, LME three-month copper fell by $14, or 0.13%, closing at $10,738.50 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $13 (0.46%) and three-month zinc up by $35 (1.17%), while three-month lead fell by $4.50 (0.22%) [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Concerns over weak demand persist, highlighted by a 13.62% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year decline in China's refined copper imports for October 2025 [5]. - Cochilco has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to historical highs due to weak production, now expecting an average price of $4.45 per pound for 2025 and $4.55 per pound for 2026 [5].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 copper price forecast from $10,385 per ton to $10,610 per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the fourth quarter [1] - The bank maintains a price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton for 2026-2027, anticipating a slight market surplus [1] - A supply deficit is expected in the latter part of this decade due to increasing resource constraints and accelerated demand in key sectors, driving prices higher [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs projects a long-term copper price of $15,000 per ton by 2035, which is above market expectations and forward contract prices of approximately $10,390 per ton, based on the assumption that long-delayed mining projects will not come online [1] - The bank remains bearish on aluminum prices for the next 12 months, forecasting a decline to $2,350 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 due to new supply leading to market oversupply [1] - Although aluminum prices are expected to recover thereafter, they are not anticipated to return to current levels until the early part of the next decade, with long-term forecasts predicting prices to fluctuate between $2,900 and $3,400 per ton from 2030 to 2035 [1]

Core Insights - China's refined tin imports in October 2025 totaled 526.12 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 58.55% and a year-on-year decline of 82.75% [1] Import Sources Summary - Bolivia was the largest source of refined tin imports, supplying 198.27 tons, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.28% [1] - Peru ranked second, with imports of 175.00 tons, showing a significant month-on-month decline of 41.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.10% [1] - Indonesia's imports fell drastically to 124.90 tons, down 81.53% month-on-month and 94.17% year-on-year [1] - China itself imported 11.01 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 44.68% [1] - Other notable sources included Singapore with 4.24 tons (up 6.00% month-on-month and up 324.00% year-on-year) and the United States with 0.80 tons (up 303.54% month-on-month) [1] Overall Import Data - The total refined tin imports for October 2025 were 526.12 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 58.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 82.75% [1]

| 原产地 | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 33,203.02 | -0.86% | 45.91% | | 泰国 | 31,050.68 | 3.00% | 92.18% | | 韩国 | 11,569.65 | -4.29% | 24.97% | | 三来西亚 | 9,394.86 | -7.63% | -46.24% | | 英国 | 8,134.51 | 6.49% | 29.71% | | 俄罗斯 | 8,023.12 | 147.01% | 25.26% | | 加拿大 | 7,776.53 | 4.91% | 55.58% | | 西班牙 | 7,572.21 | 16.82% | 65.13% | | 墨西哥 | 6,857.24 | 76.82% | 16.67% | | 沙特阿拉伯 | 6,628.87 | 24.71% | 222.60% | | 架如图出 | 6,313.00 | -3.58% | 9.61% | | 阿联酋 | 4.632.80 | 37.85% | 76.94% | | 德国 | 4 ...

Group 1 - The global refined nickel production in September 2025 is reported to be 325,500 tons, with a consumption of 308,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 17,100 tons [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the global refined nickel production reached 2,876,900 tons, while consumption was 2,602,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 274,500 tons [1] - In September 2025, the global nickel ore production was recorded at 378,300 tons [1] Group 2 - The global nickel ore production from January to September 2025 totaled 3,146,200 tons [2]

11月19日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球锌板产量为 119.35万吨，消费量为122.92万吨，供应短缺3.57万吨。 2025年1-9月，全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨，消费量为1073.69万吨，供应短缺37.37万吨。 2025年1-9月，全球锌矿产量为996.47万吨。 2025年9月，全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨。 ...

以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月锌矿砂及其精矿进口分项数据一览表： 数据来源：海关总署 海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年10月锌矿砂及其精矿进口量为340,863.41吨， 环比下降32.48%，同比增长3.19%。 秘鲁是第一大进口来源地，当月从秘鲁进口锌矿砂及其精矿95,697.72吨，环比上升35.56%，同比上升 316.96%。 澳大利亚是第二大进口来源地，当月从澳大利亚进口锌矿砂及其精矿49,763.56吨，环比下降60.87%， 同比下降23.78%。 注：进口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据 ...

以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月氧化铝出口分项数据一览表： | 目的地 | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 俄罗斯 | 163,218.78 | -29.48% | 6.84% | | 织如图出 | 2,586.62 | 140.22% | 68.05% | | 韩国 | 1,892.55 | -58.06% | 440.60% | | 日本 | 1,580.06 | 143.87% | 412.01% | | 印度 | 1,319.36 | 106.75% | 253.95% | | 量内部 | 902.20 | 436.70% | 200.73% | | 越南 | 422.01 | 87.90% | -15.04% | | 美国 | 404.36 | -51.95% | 6.75% | | 印度尼西亚 | 402.63 | -82.23% | -96.14% | | 西班牙 | 400.23 | 128.70% | -36.36% | | 阿联酋 | 283.23 | -29.41% | 1019.40% | | ...

注：1、原铝包括含铝量≥99.95%的未锻轧非合金铝；含铝量＜99.95%的未锻轧非合金铝； 以下为根据海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月原铝进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 俄罗斯 | 157,657.56 | -10.38% | 7.55% | | 印度尼西亚 | 36,435.96 | 18.45% | 363.50% | | 印度 | 19.165.13 | 2.04% | 750.88% | | 澳大利亚 | 10,710.62 | 146.69% | 425.84% | | 阿联酋 | 5,539.95 | 5.76% | 19858.75% | | 阿曼 | 5,297.90 | -- | -- | | 马来西亚 | 4.257.53 | -10.47% | 0.19% | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 4.195.84 | 99.10% | -- | | 伊朗 | 3,465.31 | 504.76% | -10.59% | | 新西兰 | 572.94 | 93.24% | 205.54% ...

Core Insights - China's aluminum scrap imports in October 2025 reached 158,360.01 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.90% and a year-on-year increase of 19.00% [1][2]. Import Sources - Thailand remains the largest source of aluminum scrap imports, with 26,708.18 tons imported in October, a decrease of 33.61% month-on-month but an increase of 16.45% year-on-year [1]. - The UK is the second-largest source, with imports of 21,844.44 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 29.29% and a year-on-year increase of 45.43% [1]. - Other notable sources include Japan (19,141.77 tons, -5.36% MoM, +8.69% YoY), the USA (12,964.26 tons, +33.46% MoM, +7.63% YoY), and Canada (10,766.96 tons, +41.23% MoM, +135.22% YoY) [1][2]. Detailed Import Data - A comprehensive breakdown of aluminum scrap imports by country for October 2025 shows significant fluctuations in import volumes and growth rates across various countries, with Canada and Norway exhibiting particularly high year-on-year growth rates of 135.22% and 488.31%, respectively [1][2]. - Countries like South Korea and Spain also showed notable year-on-year increases of 179.90% and 43.74%, respectively, while some countries like El Salvador and Ireland experienced significant declines [1][2].