156 5309 0867 Ivanhoe Electric正与锂矿生产商SQM合作，在智利北部阿塔卡马沙漠的部分区域开展铜矿勘探。 根据合作协议，双方将部署"台风"地球物理勘探系统，并辅以Computational Geosciences公司的数据反演软件，在SQM约2,000平方公里的特定采矿特许权区 域上寻找铜矿床。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 liumingkang@smm.cn ...

该机构表示，将2026年铝市供应过剩预期从110万吨小幅下调至80万吨；维持2027年供应过剩预估在160 万吨，将2028年供应过剩预估从125万吨上调至230万吨，因预期中国供应增加，且太阳能和建筑业的需 求减少。 1月27日（周二），知名投行高盛（Goldman Sachs）周二表示，上调2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所 （LME）铝价预估，从每吨2,575美元上调至3,150美元，理由是全球市场保持平衡，提振了投资者信 心，而没有引发产量快速激增。 高盛称，将2026年第四季度铝价预估从每吨2,350美元上调至2,500美元，但维持2027年铝价预估在2,400 美元不变。 ...

1月27日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价下跌，投资者从近期的涨势中获利了结，并等待美国 联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)在利率方面的下一步行动。与此同时，锡价创下历史新高。 伦敦时间1月27日17:00(北京时间1月28日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌192.5美元，或1.46%，收报每吨 13,006.5美元。周一铜价曾触及13,311美元，接近1月14日创下的13,407美元纪录高位。 | | 1月27日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 张跃 | 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 13,006.50 -192.50 -1.46% | | | 三个月期铝 | 3,207.00 ↑ +18.50 ↑ +0.58% | | | 三个月期锌 | 3,351.00 ↑ +8.50 ↑ +0.25% | | | 三个月期铅 | 2,020.00 -18.00 -0.88% | | | 三个月期镇 | 18.169.00 J -353.00 -1.91% | | | 三个月期锡 | 54,878.00 ↑ +646.00 ↑ +1.19 ...

Market Overview - The global high-strength aluminum alloy market is projected to surge from $66.01 billion in 2025 to $115.29 billion by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [1] - A structural shortage is emerging due to the widening gap between downstream demand and upstream realities, exacerbated by challenges such as smelter closures in Europe and export controls in China [1] European Aluminum Production - The EU currently consumes 13.5 million tons of aluminum annually, but primary aluminum production has plummeted to just 0.95 million tons, resulting in a structural deficit of 93% [2] - Since 2010, primary aluminum production in Western and Central Europe has decreased by over 25%, leading to a significant reduction in upstream capacity [3] Slovak Aluminum Industry - Slovakia requires approximately 6 to 7 million tons of aluminum, with the remainder being imported; the Slovak government is advocating for the restart of the Slovalco smelter, which previously had an annual output of 175,000 tons [3] - The smelter's closure is attributed to high energy costs, with each ton of aluminum requiring 13 to 15 megawatt-hours of electricity [3] - A proposed 10-year support plan and €100 million investment to restart the smelter face significant technical challenges, particularly regarding the replacement of frozen electrolytic cell linings [3] Key Mineral Bottlenecks - The growth of high-strength alloys is closely tied to the 7xxx and 5xxx series, which are critical for aerospace and defense, requiring magnesium and zinc [4] - Zinc, a primary strengthening agent for 7xxx series alloys, is under supply pressure, with LME zinc inventories expected to drop to critically low levels by the end of 2025 [4] - Despite a projected surplus in zinc supply in late 2026 due to new mines coming online, market volatility remains a concern [4] Aerospace Demand - The aerospace sector continues to be a major driver of aluminum demand, with Airbus and Boeing having backlogs exceeding 14,000 aircraft orders, equivalent to 11 years of production at current sales rates [4] - Each narrow-body aircraft wing requires substantial amounts of 7150 or 7055 aluminum alloy sheet, providing significant pricing power to processors like Constellium SE, which reported a 61% increase in unit metal margins [4] Regulatory and Green Aluminum Challenges - The industry faces a dichotomy between "polluting" aluminum and "green" aluminum, with the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposing carbon taxes on imported metals starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The paradox arises as Europe shuts down low-carbon smelters due to high energy costs while taxing high-carbon imports to compensate for production losses [6] - Recycling is often seen as a solution, but high-strength alloys face chemical composition limitations, as recycled aluminum typically contains iron, which can create brittle structures unsuitable for critical aerospace components [6] - The transition to a $115 billion market is not solely a demand issue but also a challenge of conversion capacity and clean energy, with the industry's strategic autonomy at risk until the consumption-production gap in Europe is addressed [6]

Group 1 - Zambia's copper production is projected to reach approximately 890,346 tons in 2025, an 8% increase from 825,513 tons in 2024 [2] - The increase in production is primarily driven by enhanced output from Konkola, Mopani, Kansanshi, and Lubambe mines [2] - Zambia failed to meet its previous target of 1 million tons due to a tailings dam collapse incident that led to a production halt for one company [2] Group 2 - First Quantum Minerals' Trident mine experienced an 18% reduction in output due to a decline in ore grade [3] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank expects copper prices to peak at $13,000 per ton in Q2, followed by a decline in the second half of the year as production from major mines is likely to recover [2] - The threat of tariffs on refined copper from the U.S. is expected to lead to continued metal inflow into the U.S. during the first half of the year [2] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to decline from current levels in the second half of the year, with an average forecast of $2,925 per ton for 2026 and a peak of $3,100 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

SHMET 网讯：美国铝业市场参与者预计，2026年初将有大量进口铝材涌入以补充库存缺口。受现货供 应紧张影响，Platts美国中西部铝溢价已攀升至历史新高。 该溢价于1月23日首次突破1美元/磅关口，评估价格为1.0095美元/磅。自年初以来，生产商、贸易商和 消费方均预期溢价将飙升至1美元/磅以上，尤其因关税政策持续不确定性，进口商不愿大量补充库存。 美国国内贸易与行业协会数据显示，2025年末铝流入量与铝制品订单量同步下滑。美国关税政策的不确 定性持续笼罩2026年初市场动态，迫使多数参与者维持薄弱的现货交易和紧缺的库存水平。"除非你愿 意冒险采购无订单支撑的金属，否则就是在赌运气，"一位铝锭消费商向Platts表示。 S&P Global Energy旗下Platts数据显示，中西部溢价在1月出现反弹，但交易量仍处于低位。 2025年末至2026年初的美国需求基本维持不变，采购意愿被认为保持稳定。根据美国铝业协会最新统 计，2025年1月至11月国内铝生产商的平均订单量较2024年同期仅相差0.5个百分点。 但数据显示，铝订单量在2025年末开始下滑。11月平板轧制产品（板材、板坯、罐料和箔材）订单环 ...

研报仍然认为，如果美国最终推进分阶段的精炼铜进口关税，COMEX/LME之间可能再次出现剧烈错位，甚至引发新一轮库存抽空与价格上冲。但他们同时 强调，这个故事至少在春节前后是不成立的。 在此之前，团队的判断是，铜价面临基本面驱动的短期回调风险，但在12,000美元附近，仍可能获得阶段性支撑。 1月26日（周一），在最新一期《金属周报》中，以Gregory Shearer为首的摩根大通（JPMorgan）大宗商品研究团队给出了较为悲观的预测：铜价仍然居高 不下，但基本面支持显现出明显的疲软迹象。 研报中称，年初以来铜价一直维持在每吨13,000美元左右，主要原因更多的是宏观资金和人气支撑，而非现货供应和需求改善。由于中国和海外市场库存同 时增加，这种"价格领先于基本面"的状态正变得越来越不可持续。 从供应面来看，形势并不吃紧。 COMEX/LME套利结构在前端出现反转，导致铜重新流入美国LME仓库，仅一周时间，美国LME库存就增加了1万吨以上；同时，亚洲仓库也有近2万吨交 割。 在库存回升的推动下，LME铜价曲线迅速从深度现货升水切回贴水。现货铜较三个月期铜的价差从每吨近100美元升水转为约75美元的贴水，这是 ...

1月26日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价升至一周多以来的最高点，因为市场重新关注需求强 劲和供应中断的预期，而锡价在触及纪录高点后回落，因中国出台持仓限额相关政策。 伦敦时间1月26日17:00(北京时间1月27日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨84美元，或0.64%，收报每吨 13,199.0美元，盘中曾触及13,311美元，为1月14日以来最高。 | | 1月26日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 茶跌 | 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 13,199.00 ↑ | +84.00 ↑ +0.64% | | | 三个月期铝 | 3,188.50 1 | +19.50 ↑ +0.62% | | | 三个月期锌 | 3,342.50 ↑ | +82.00 ↑ +2.51% | | | 三个月期铅 | 2,038.00 1 | +12.00 ↑ +0.59% | | | 三个月期镇 | 18,522.00 | -234.00 -1.25% | | | 三个月期锡 | | 54,232.00 -2,584.00 ...

机械设备承包商Finning周六晚些时候发表声明称，已经和罢工工人达成一项劳工协议，结束了对通往智利Escondida和Zaldiver矿的道路封锁。 Finning公司第二工会成员自本月初开始罢工，并在La Negra工业区和通往必和必拓（BHP）旗下Escondida和安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）旗下的Zaldivar矿 的道路上断断续续实施封锁行动。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn SMM联合制作联系人 ...