今日沪铜强势运行，日内期价最高触及91450元，刷新上市高点，收盘上涨2.26%。周内沪铜走势强 劲，已经连续三次突破前高，主要受海外流动性预期宽松、矿紧向冶炼端传导担忧和非美地区库存下降 忧虑等因素提振。 隔夜公布的美国ADP就业人口意外下降，由于美国非农数据受政府停摆影响延后发布，这是本月美联储 议息会议前最后一份美国就业报告，疲弱的数据仍然支持美联储本月小幅降息，外围情绪尚可。 昨日LME铜库存变化较小，但LME铜注销仓单昨日突然暴增逾50000吨至56875吨，注册仓单则骤降逾 50000吨至105275吨，目前落至今年7月下旬以来最低，注销占比暴增至35.08%，市场开始担心非美地 区库存的下滑，内外铜价顺势突破。 对于铜价，国投期货表示，LME注销仓单占比从低位快速升至35%，虽在中性水平，但引发市场对伦铜 潜在出库预期。LME0-3月现货升水88美元，市场关注物流流向，包括美国铜市仍具备吸引力以及国内 延续出口方向。海外投行上调铜及均价预期。 （文华综合） ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged significantly, reaching a peak of 323,700 yuan/ton, the highest since April 2022, before retracting slightly. The main contract closed up 2.23% at 316,230 yuan/ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances in the tin market and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [1]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The core logic supporting the rise in tin prices is the supply-demand imbalance, with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region lagging behind expectations and renewed supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) exacerbating the global tin shortage [1]. - Tin ingot exports from Indonesia have largely returned to normal, with over 6,500 tons exported in November [1]. - Ongoing conflicts in the eastern DRC have heightened concerns about supply chain stability and increased logistics risks [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - In early November, there was a notable decline in downstream consumption, with photovoltaic demand remaining stable but production expectations for home appliances in December significantly lower than November [2]. - Downstream enterprises reported a marked decrease in order volumes and slower inventory turnover, with many companies adopting a cautious approach to high prices and refraining from large-scale stocking [2]. - Overall consumption this year has slightly decreased compared to previous years, contributing to a weak supply-demand scenario [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent unexpected drop in U.S. ADP data has led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates, causing the U.S. dollar index to fall below 99, which has positively impacted the overall non-ferrous metals market [2]. - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to shift focus back to policy expectations, influencing market dynamics [2]. - While tensions in the eastern DRC continue to raise supply concerns, the market has already priced in some of these risks, indicating that new catalysts will be needed to further drive prices upward [2].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore plans to restart operations at the Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year, which was the last copper-producing mine in the country before its closure in 2018 [1] Group 1: Company Plans - The Alumbrera copper mine, located in the northern part of Catamarca province, is expected to begin production in the first half of 2028 [1] - The decision to resume operations is based on a robust tax regime that supports investment in Argentina's mining sector, alongside rising copper and gold prices and a positive outlook for these commodities [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Under the leadership of President Javier Milei, Argentina has introduced a tax incentive program called the "Large Investment Incentive System" (RIGI), which has benefited mining companies [1]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Energy Minister stated that mining licenses will be revoked if companies are found violating regulations during mining activities amid the flooding disaster in Sumatra [1][2] - The disaster has resulted in approximately 800 deaths and 564 missing persons across West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Aceh provinces due to floods and landslides caused by hurricanes [1] - Environmental organizations have raised concerns that deforestation related to mining and illegal logging has exacerbated the disaster, leading to landslides that have turned residential areas into ruins and mud pools [1] Group 2 - The organization JATAM reported that the legal area converted from forest to mining zones is approximately 54,000 hectares (133,000 acres), with most of it designated for mining activities [2] - PT Agincourt Resources, a license holder operating the Martabe gold mine in the Batang Toru ecosystem, stated that linking the floods directly to mining operations is "premature and inaccurate" [2] - From 2001 to 2024, the overall forest loss in Sumatra is estimated to reach 4.4 million hectares (11 million acres), an area larger than Switzerland, according to David Gaveau, founder of the forest monitoring agency Nusantara Atlas [2]

Group 1 - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures reached a historical high, driven by a surge in canceled warehouse receipts at the London Metal Exchange (LME), indicating tightening supply outside of China and increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.62% to 91,300 yuan per ton, earlier touching a record high of 91,400 yuan [1] - LME three-month copper contract hit a historical high of $11,540 per ton, with current prices at $11,510.50 per ton [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its LME copper average price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $10,415 per ton to $10,710 per ton [2] - The US dollar showed weakness, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [2] Group 3 - Tin prices surged to their highest level in three and a half years, with Shanghai tin rising by 3.05% to 318,790 yuan per ton, earlier reaching 323,700 yuan [3][4] - Other base metals on the Shanghai market saw increases, with aluminum up 1.1% to 22,135 yuan per ton, zinc up 0.88% to 22,940 yuan per ton, lead up 0.03% to 17,190 yuan per ton, and nickel up 0.21% to 117,860 yuan per ton [3] - LME three-month tin declined by 0.94% to $40,395.00 per ton, while other metals like zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel showed slight increases [4]

LME公布的最新数据显示，LME铜注销仓单昨日突然暴增逾50000吨至56875吨，注册仓单则骤降逾50000 吨至105275吨，目前落至今年7月下旬以来最低。 昨日LME铜库存变化有限，但注册仓单和注销仓单的巨幅变化使得市场预计库存会出现下降，当前注销占 比由3.89%飙升至35.08%。 | 目期 | 库存总计 | 注销仓单占比 | 注册仓单 | 注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月3日 | 162150 | 35.08% | 105275 | 56875 | | 2025年12月2日 | 161800 | 3.89% | 155500 | 6300 | | 2025年12月1日 | 159425 | 4.06% | 152950 | 6475 | | 2025年11月28日 | 159425 | 4.12% | 152850 | 6575 | | 2025年11月27日 | 157175 | 3.87% | 151100 | 6075 | | 2025年11月26日 | 156500 | 3.87% | 150450 | 6050 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged, reaching new highs due to supply tightening concerns, with the main contract increasing by approximately 2% and international copper rising over 2% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The night trading session for copper in Shanghai saw a strong performance, breaking previous high points [1] - The main contract is currently experiencing a price increase of around 2% [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Concerns over tightening supply have driven copper prices to new highs, leading to fluctuations within a high price range [1] - The LME copper cancellation warrants surged from 6,300 tons to 56,875 tons, indicating a significant increase [1] - Registered warrants have dropped by over 50,000 tons, marking the lowest level since late July of this year, raising concerns about potential future inventory declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged significantly, breaking the high point since April 2022, with the main contract increasing nearly 4% in early trading today [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core logic supporting the rise in tin prices is the imbalance between supply and demand, exacerbated by slower-than-expected resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State [1] - Supply disruptions in tin mining from the Democratic Republic of the Congo have also contributed to the tightening global tin supply, further supporting price increases [1] Market Sentiment - The historical high in copper prices has positively influenced the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, leading to significant valuation transmission effects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecasts for 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month periods to $10,725, $10,640, and $10,610 per ton respectively, up from previous estimates of $10,400, $10,425, and $10,600 per ton [1] Price Forecasts - The new 3-month copper price forecast is set at $10,725 per ton, an increase from the previous forecast of $10,400 per ton [1] - The 6-month copper price forecast has been adjusted to $10,640 per ton, up from $10,425 per ton [1] - The 12-month copper price forecast remains slightly adjusted to $10,610 per ton, compared to the earlier estimate of $10,600 per ton [1]

Group 1 - Codelco has signed a memorandum of understanding with Glencore for collaboration on a Chilean smelter project [1] - Under the agreement, Codelco will supply up to 80,800 tons of copper concentrate annually to Glencore, which will lead the project development [1] - Codelco will not directly construct or fund the smelter, and Glencore will conduct a feasibility study with the aim to finalize the deal by mid-next year [1] Group 2 - If the project proceeds, construction is expected to start in 2030, with production anticipated in 2032-2033 [1] - Codelco selected Glencore through a bidding process for this collaboration [1]