Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased to 148,875 tons, down by 900 tons from the previous day, with registered warrants at 135,425 tons and canceled warrants at 13,450 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 9.03% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory increased to 513,900 tons, up by 30,125 tons, with registered warrants at 404,675 tons and canceled warrants at 109,225 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 21.25% [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased slightly to 48,825 tons, with registered warrants at 31,375 tons and canceled warrants at 17,450 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 35.74% [1][9] - Nickel inventory decreased to 228,450 tons, with registered warrants at 220,668 tons and canceled warrants at 7,782 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 3.41% [1][13] Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory remained stable at 52,200 tons, with no changes in inflow or outflow [3] - Rotterdam saw a decrease in copper inventory to 18,050 tons, down by 200 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 14.13% [3] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased to 48,725 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 35.76% [9] - The inventory of tin in the port of Klang remained unchanged at 1,850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 7.84% [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract falling by 1.46% to 269,100 yuan/ton, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and limited improvement in domestic downstream consumption [1] - Domestic smelting plants are facing reduced operating rates, with a reported operating rate of 28.48% for refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi, marking a year-to-date low [1] - The recovery of tin mines in Myanmar is slower than expected, with significant production unlikely before November, while tin mine inventories in Yunnan are below the 30-day safety line, leading to increased processing costs and some companies experiencing production losses [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the tin market suggests that the combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish statements and hawkish comments will lead to a weak and volatile price trend, with a focus on lower integer support levels [2] - The LME inventory is stabilizing and domestic consumption is not improving, which is dragging down tin prices, while the supply of refined tin remains constrained due to regular maintenance at large smelting plants [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a downturn, influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious interest rate cut and the overall decline in precious and non-ferrous metals, with a particular focus on downstream demand for copper [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening job market and mentioning inflation concerns [1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year and one in the next year, aligning with market expectations, although Powell's comments were more hawkish than anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, market sentiment weakened, leading to a stabilization of the US dollar index at lower levels, and a subsequent decline in precious and non-ferrous metals [1] - The copper price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.36% during the trading session, reflecting ongoing weak performance [1] Group 3: Demand Outlook - High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, necessitating close monitoring of future demand improvements [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined nickel surplus of 3.6 million tons in July 2025, with production at 320,100 tons and consumption at 284,500 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,237,600 tons, while consumption was 1,993,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 244,300 tons [1] - In July 2025, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and for the first seven months of 2025, it totaled 2,326,200 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's zinc production in August 2025 reached 651,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [1] Production Insights - In August, domestic smelters increased production, with regular maintenance occurring in regions such as Hunan and Gansu. In contrast, areas like Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia focused on resuming operations after maintenance. Additionally, new production capacity in regions like Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia continued to be released, leading to a month-on-month increase in zinc production [1] - In September, SMM reported that maintenance at smelters was primarily concentrated in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Yunnan. Some recycled zinc enterprises experienced a decline in production due to rising raw material prices and tight supply. However, production increased in regions such as Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Hubei, resulting in an overall production adjustment [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined lead surplus of 22,000 tons in July 2025, with production at 1,127,500 tons and consumption at 1,105,400 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, there was a global refined lead shortage of 156,900 tons, with production totaling 7,782,800 tons and consumption at 7,939,700 tons [1] - In July 2025, global lead mine production reached 399,100 tons, while the total for January to July 2025 was 2,656,400 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's lead production in August 2025 reached 667,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% despite some production cuts due to maintenance and raw material shortages [1] Group 1: Electrolytic Lead Production - In August, domestic electrolytic lead production increased as medium and large electrolytic lead smelting enterprises in Central, North, and East China resumed operations after maintenance [1] - Although some smelting companies faced production cuts due to maintenance and insufficient ore supply, the overall electrolytic lead output saw a rise [1] Group 2: Recycled Lead Production - Recycled lead production also increased due to the resumption of operations at several smelting plants and the release of new capacity, despite some companies facing raw material shortages and significant losses leading to production halts [1] - The report indicates that while some large smelting plants in East and North China plan to reduce or halt production, the overall recycled lead output remains positively impacted by new capacity coming online [1] Group 3: Outlook for September - Looking ahead to September, SMM notes an increase in maintenance among electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, which may offset some production declines due to resumed operations in Northeast and North China [1] - The supply of waste batteries in North China is expected to be tight during the September 3 military parade, which may lead to limited raw material availability for smelting plants until mid-September [1]

Core Insights - China's aluminum production in August 2025 reached 5.548 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1% but a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] - From January to August 2025, China's aluminum production totaled 43.79 million tons, remaining approximately flat year-on-year [1] - The demand for aluminum is currently transitioning between the off-peak and peak seasons, resulting in limited production growth [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global primary aluminum supply shortage of 11.99 million tons in July 2025, with production at 6.127 million tons and consumption at 6.2469 million tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, global primary aluminum production was 42.3681 million tons, while consumption reached 43.3534 million tons, resulting in a supply shortfall of 0.9853 million tons [1] Production and Consumption - In July 2025, global primary aluminum production was recorded at 6.127 million tons [1] - Global primary aluminum consumption in July 2025 was 6.2469 million tons [1] - The supply deficit for July 2025 was 11.99 million tons [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January to July 2025, the total global primary aluminum production amounted to 42.3681 million tons [1] - During the same period, global primary aluminum consumption totaled 43.3534 million tons [1] - The supply shortfall for the first seven months of 2025 was 0.9853 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The global refined tin production in July 2025 is projected to be 25,600 tons, while the consumption is expected to be 27,400 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 1,800 tons [2] - From January to July 2025, the global refined tin production totals 203,300 tons, with consumption at 214,200 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 10,900 tons [2] - The global tin ore production in July 2025 is estimated at 20,700 tons [2] Group 2 - The total global tin ore production from January to July 2025 is reported to be 176,700 tons [2]