12月5日（周五），铜价触及历史高点，此前花旗银行上调了对这种工业金属的价格预期，市场同时受 到供应担忧以及对美联储下周可能降息的乐观情绪支撑。 上海期货交易所交投最活跃的铜合约上涨1.18%，至每吨91,860元。该合约在早盘交易中曾触及每吨 92,000元的历史高点。本周沪铜预计将累计上涨5.33%。 伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜合约上涨1.02%，至每吨11,567.00美元，此前曾创下每吨11,581.5美元 的峰值。本周伦铜预计将累计上涨3.28%。 该行表示，由于投资者押注美国经济将实现软着陆，宏观基金持续买入提供支撑；同时，矿山供应增长 无法跟上能源转型和人工智能相关需求加速的步伐，导致供应短缺扩大，这都将支撑价格。 该行补充称，与COMEX-LME套利相关的美国囤货行为预计将加剧市场紧张状况。根据LME周四的数 据，铜继续从LME在亚洲的注册仓库流出。 （文华综合） 在其他上海基本金属中，沪铝上涨0.95%，报每吨22,270元；沪锌上涨1.38%，报每吨23,155元；沪铅上 涨0.73%，报每吨17,310元；沪镍下滑0.2%，报每吨117,500元；沪锡下滑0.43%，报每吨317 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME three-month copper prices have reached a record high of $11,570.50 per ton, while Shanghai copper has also hit a record high of 91,960 yuan, driven by concerns over tight supply [1] Group 1 - The increase in copper prices is attributed to supply tightness in the market [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Aurubis stated that the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act, despite challenging negotiations, is expected to have a positive long-term impact on the industry [1] - The Act sets resource targets for EU member states to achieve by 2030: 10% extraction, 25% recycling, and 40% processing [1] - Aurubis advocates for EU-level export restrictions and tariffs to ensure recycled materials remain in Europe, which are crucial for meeting strong demand [1] Group 2 - Aurubis reported annual performance below market expectations, primarily due to a decline in concentrate processing volumes and reduced refining fees [2] - The company experienced a slight decrease in recycling revenue, with increased costs and depreciation from strategic projects like the expansion of its Bulgarian plant partially offsetting positive factors [2]

12月4日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周四从历史高位回落，交易商表示，导致本周铜价飙 升的供应紧张恐慌情绪已经开始缓解。 伦敦时间12月4日17:00(北京时间12月5日01:00)，三个月期铜收盘下跌37.50美元，或0.33%，报每吨 11,450.00美元，盘中稍早一度触及11,529美元，距离周三创下的每吨11,540美元历史高点仅一步之遥。 LME公布的数据显示，韩国仓库的新净注销量再增50,725吨，此前亚洲地区仓单注销量已于前日突破 50,725吨。 周三LME现货铜合约与三个月合约价差因此一度升至每吨88美元左右，为10月中以来最高，表明市场 对即期金属的需求强劲。周四该溢价回落至62美元左右。 Sucden Financial指出，2025年铜市供需仍维持微弱盈余，但当前任何轻微扰动都可能导致缺口。该经纪 商认为每吨10,830美元是铜价年底前的关键支撑位。 "预计节假日期间流动性将持续恶化。叠加整个金属板块投机参与度居高不下，这将加剧市场出现异常 波动或无序波动的风险，尤其在价差本已收窄的薄弱市场中。" 与此同时，高盛将2026年上半年伦铜均价预测自每吨10,415美元上调至每吨 ...

12月4日（周四），沪铜创下历史新高，原因是伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库的注销仓单激增，同时市 场对美联储本月降息的押注增加。 LME周三的数据显示，韩国和中国台湾仓库的新净注销量为50,725吨，使LME仓库的注册仓单降至7月 份以来的最低水平105,275吨，铜因此获得支撑。 一位分析师在报告中说，LME注销仓单的急剧增加表明，美国以外市场供应收紧的预期开始成为现 实。 嘉能可(Glencore)周三下调了其2026年铜产量预期，但表示仍预计到2035年产量将上升。 力拓周四表示，因蒙古奥尤陶勒盖（Oyu Tolgoi）铜金矿项目运营加速，公司上调了2025年铜产量预 测。 上海期货交易所（SHFE）最活跃的铜合约日间收盘大涨2.26%，至每吨90,980元，当天早些时候曾创下 91,450元的历史新高。 LME三个月指标期铜周三创下每吨11,540美元的历史新高。北京时间16:10，伦敦期铜下跌0.45%，报每 吨11,436美元。 力拓预计，2025年合并铜产量将达86万至87.5万公吨之间，高于此前预测的78万至85万公吨。 该矿商还预计，2026年铜产量将在80万至87万公吨之间。 高盛（Gold ...

力拓称，从2024年到2030年，将把单位成本削减4%。 力拓表示，资本纪律、其商品价格的上涨以及铜产量的20%增长，有望在本个10年末帮助公司的盈利增 加多达一半。 力拓预计，2025年铝土矿产量将超过此前的5,900万至6,100万吨指导区间，铝产量将达到325万-345万吨 指导区间的高端。 以下为力拓最新的生产指导： 力拓预计，2025年合并铜产量将达86万至87.5万公吨之间，高于此前预测的78万至85万公吨。 该矿商还预计，2026年铜产量将在80万至87万公吨之间。 虽然力拓的利润主要来自于铁矿石，但该矿商正将其重点转向铜，目标到2030年实现铜年产量100万 吨。 力拓周四表示，因蒙古奥尤陶勒盖（Oyu Tolgoi）铜金矿项目运营加速，公司上调了2025年铜产量预 测。 铜价已达到纪录高位，并且预计在向绿色能源转型期间，铜需求将高企。 力拓表示，今年在奥尤陶勒盖铜矿的产量仍有望提高50%以上，2026年提高约15%。 | Production guidance | 2025 | 20267 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (including updates) | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is primarily driven by supply disruptions, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and production challenges in Myanmar, while downstream demand shows mixed performance [1][2][3]. Supply Situation - Tin prices have accelerated since mid-October, with significant contributions from supply concerns related to the DRC's Alphamin mine, which has a production capacity of 17,000 tons [2]. - The DRC accounted for 20% of China's tin ore imports from January to October 2025, raising market fears about supply stability [1]. - The mining situation in Myanmar's Wa region has been hampered by a mining ban and operational challenges, leading to slower-than-expected production recovery [2]. - Overall, domestic smelting operations have returned to high levels post-maintenance, ensuring sufficient tin ingot supply [1]. Downstream Demand - Demand for tin is currently mixed, with strong growth in AI semiconductors and a 20% increase in electric vehicles contributing positively, while demand from the photovoltaic sector and home appliances has weakened significantly [3]. - Cumulative demand from January to October has decreased by 1.38% year-on-year, with expectations of further declines in November and December [3]. - The demand for refined tin solder, which constitutes about 50% of downstream usage, has seen a recovery in operating rates, currently around 75% [3]. Price Outlook - Short-term price increases may be limited due to demand pressures and unconfirmed supply disruptions, with current volatility nearing 30, indicating a risk-reward imbalance [4]. - The primary driver of current tin price valuations is supply-side concerns, particularly regarding the DRC's political situation, which investors should monitor closely [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to remain elevated but difficult to sustain significant increases in the short term [5].

今日沪铜强势运行，日内期价最高触及91450元，刷新上市高点，收盘上涨2.26%。周内沪铜走势强 劲，已经连续三次突破前高，主要受海外流动性预期宽松、矿紧向冶炼端传导担忧和非美地区库存下降 忧虑等因素提振。 隔夜公布的美国ADP就业人口意外下降，由于美国非农数据受政府停摆影响延后发布，这是本月美联储 议息会议前最后一份美国就业报告，疲弱的数据仍然支持美联储本月小幅降息，外围情绪尚可。 昨日LME铜库存变化较小，但LME铜注销仓单昨日突然暴增逾50000吨至56875吨，注册仓单则骤降逾 50000吨至105275吨，目前落至今年7月下旬以来最低，注销占比暴增至35.08%，市场开始担心非美地 区库存的下滑，内外铜价顺势突破。 对于铜价，国投期货表示，LME注销仓单占比从低位快速升至35%，虽在中性水平，但引发市场对伦铜 潜在出库预期。LME0-3月现货升水88美元，市场关注物流流向，包括美国铜市仍具备吸引力以及国内 延续出口方向。海外投行上调铜及均价预期。 （文华综合） ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged significantly, reaching a peak of 323,700 yuan/ton, the highest since April 2022, before retracting slightly. The main contract closed up 2.23% at 316,230 yuan/ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances in the tin market and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [1]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The core logic supporting the rise in tin prices is the supply-demand imbalance, with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region lagging behind expectations and renewed supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) exacerbating the global tin shortage [1]. - Tin ingot exports from Indonesia have largely returned to normal, with over 6,500 tons exported in November [1]. - Ongoing conflicts in the eastern DRC have heightened concerns about supply chain stability and increased logistics risks [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - In early November, there was a notable decline in downstream consumption, with photovoltaic demand remaining stable but production expectations for home appliances in December significantly lower than November [2]. - Downstream enterprises reported a marked decrease in order volumes and slower inventory turnover, with many companies adopting a cautious approach to high prices and refraining from large-scale stocking [2]. - Overall consumption this year has slightly decreased compared to previous years, contributing to a weak supply-demand scenario [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent unexpected drop in U.S. ADP data has led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates, causing the U.S. dollar index to fall below 99, which has positively impacted the overall non-ferrous metals market [2]. - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to shift focus back to policy expectations, influencing market dynamics [2]. - While tensions in the eastern DRC continue to raise supply concerns, the market has already priced in some of these risks, indicating that new catalysts will be needed to further drive prices upward [2].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore plans to restart operations at the Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year, which was the last copper-producing mine in the country before its closure in 2018 [1] Group 1: Company Plans - The Alumbrera copper mine, located in the northern part of Catamarca province, is expected to begin production in the first half of 2028 [1] - The decision to resume operations is based on a robust tax regime that supports investment in Argentina's mining sector, alongside rising copper and gold prices and a positive outlook for these commodities [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Under the leadership of President Javier Milei, Argentina has introduced a tax incentive program called the "Large Investment Incentive System" (RIGI), which has benefited mining companies [1]