Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August 2025 was 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] Production and Capacity - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong continued to shift towards Yunnan, while the capacity in Qinghai was fully replaced and put into operation [1] - The early-stage technological transformation projects in Guangxi began to resume production, leading to a slight increase in operational capacity and a marginal rise in production [1] - As of September, SMM indicated that with the gradual commissioning of replacement projects, domestic electrolytic aluminum operational capacity is expected to see a slight increase, with daily aluminum ingot production achieving growth [1]

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals show a decline in copper and zinc, while aluminum remains stable, and tin has seen a slight increase [1][2][4] - Copper inventory decreased by 1,325 tons, representing a 0.86% drop, with a total of 152,625 tons in stock [1][4] - Zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, a 0.74% decline, bringing the total to 50,150 tons [1][9] Group 2 - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no new entries or exits reported [1][5] - Tin inventory increased by 25 tons, a 0.95% rise, resulting in a total of 2,645 tons [1][11] - The registered warehouse receipts for copper decreased by 17.13%, while the cancellation rate for zinc was reported at 34.50% [2][9]

（文华综合） 印尼矿业部一位官员表示，由于自由港麦克莫兰运营的Grasberge铜矿发生泥石流事故，只有Block Cave 已经停止运营，其他较小的矿区仍在运营。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费仍然低位徘徊，变动有 限，买卖双方分歧较大。 沪铜站稳80000关口后延续强势，今日偏强震荡，期价徘徊在81000一线附近，收盘上涨0.35%。铜市原 料端仍然偏紧，下游需求改善有限，社会库存继续增加，不过在降息预期提振下，市场氛围偏暖，沪铜 偏强震荡。 金瑞期货表示，近期印尼矿山出现生产扰动，预计小幅影响产量。冶炼环节进入9月国内冶炼检修增 加，结合再生冶炼原料同样转紧，维持冶炼产量重心下移预期。进出口方面，近期到港开始有所增加， 或因前期窗口打开。消费端，进入9月后下游订单边际改善幅度不大，或有铜价重心偏高影响。再生企 业反馈影响未持续发酵，开工边际有所回升。短期供需走弱，预计延续紧平衡状态。 9月15日国内市场电解铜现货库存15.79万吨，较11日增0.89万吨。上海市场近期进口虽仍有所到货但对 比前期表现减少，且国产货源到货依旧有限，但铜价高位运行，下游采购需求提升空间有限，库存小幅 下降；然江苏市场临近交割， ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported that refined tin exports in August amounted to 3,246.46 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 49% and a month-on-month decline of 14%, marking a continuous drop for three consecutive months [2] - The closure of Indonesia's tin export window has led to a sustained decline in export volumes, with August exports reaching a near two-year low [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported a 49% year-on-year decrease in refined tin exports for August, totaling 3,246.46 tons [2] - The refined tin export volume in July was 3,792.22 tons, indicating a decline from the previous month [2] - In the same month last year, the export volume was significantly higher at 6,436.27 tons [2]

国家统计局9月15日发布的数据显示，中国2025年8月原铝（电解铝）产量为380万吨，同比减少0.5%。 1-8月累计产量为3014万吨，同比增长2.2%。 数据亦显示，2025年8月，中国十种有色金属产量为698万吨，同比增长3.8%。1-8月累计产量为5432万 吨，同比增长3.1%。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that recent copper inventories have shown fluctuations, with the latest inventory level at 153,950 tons, marking a decline to a new low in over a month [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, reaching a new high in two and a half months [1] - International copper inventories rose by 2,192 tons to 14,144 tons, while New York copper inventories continued to accumulate, reaching 310,487 tons, the highest level since mid-August 2003 [1] Group 2 - Generally, a continuous decline in domestic and international exchange inventories tends to support copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a five-month high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and concerns over potential supply shortages [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 12, LME three-month copper rose by $16, or 0.16%, closing at $10,067.50 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,126, the highest since March 26 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by approximately 15%, but have struggled to maintain levels above the psychological threshold of $10,000 [4]. - Concerns over supply are significant, particularly with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remaining suspended due to ongoing rescue operations for trapped workers [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $16, or 0.6%, closing at $2,689.50 per ton [2][6]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $57, or 1.97%, closing at $2,957.00 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21, or 1.05%, closing at $2,017.50 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $241, or 1.59%, closing at $15,391.00 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $277, or 0.8%, closing at $34,975.00 per ton [2][10]. Group 3: Production Insights - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 2% year-on-year decline in copper production in July, dropping to 228,007 tons [5].

Group 1: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 225 tons, representing a 0.15% decline, with total inventory at 153,950 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no variation in registered or canceled warrants [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 100 tons, a 0.20% drop, bringing total inventory to 50,525 tons [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,932 tons, a 0.87% rise, resulting in a total of 225,084 tons [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained stable at 1,500 tons, with no changes [1] Group 2: Registered and Canceled Warrants - For copper, registered warrants are at 133,225 tons, with a 0.08% decrease, and canceled warrants at 20,725 tons, down by 0.60% [2] - Aluminum registered warrants are at 375,025 tons, unchanged, with canceled warrants at 110,250 tons, also unchanged [2] - Zinc registered warrants decreased by 6.70% to 33,050 tons, while canceled warrants increased by 14.97% to 17,475 tons [2] - Nickel registered warrants are at 216,510 tons, with a slight increase of 0.89%, and canceled warrants at 8,574 tons, up by 0.28% [2] - Tin inventory saw a significant increase in registered warrants by 11.44% to 2,435 tons, while canceled warrants decreased by 7.50% to 185 tons [2] Group 3: Location-Specific Inventory Changes - Copper inventory at Changsha remains at 52,100 tons with no changes, while Kaohsiung shows a decrease of 150 tons to 46,825 tons [4] - Rotterdam's copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 19,450 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 19.28% [4] - Aluminum inventory at Port Klang remains stable at 314,400 tons, with registered warrants at 206,820 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 100 tons to 50,425 tons, with registered warrants at 32,975 tons [9] - Tin inventory at Yangshan increased by 235 tons to 2,620 tons, with registered warrants at 2,435 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stabilizing while demand remains resilient, driven by the transition from off-peak to peak season and the continued high demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [1][2]. Supply Side Stability - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with seasonal production cuts diminishing due to improved power supply from renewable energy projects [1]. - Although there are expansion plans in overseas markets like Indonesia, challenges such as inadequate power infrastructure slow down the release of new capacity, resulting in limited overall supply growth [1]. Demand Resilience - The market is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with recovery in downstream processing rates and increasing orders in sectors like photovoltaics and automotive [2]. - Despite previous concerns about weakening export demand, aluminum product exports show strong resilience, with a shift from initial processing products to deep-processing products [2]. Low Inventory Support - The ongoing decline in alumina prices is unlikely to significantly drag down aluminum prices due to strong support from bauxite prices and expected reductions in bauxite export volumes as the rainy season approaches [3]. - Both domestic and overseas aluminum ingot inventories are at historically low levels, which, combined with the upcoming peak season, is expected to lead to further inventory depletion and support a bullish price outlook for aluminum [3].