Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 first-half average price forecast for LME copper to $10,710 per ton, up from a previous forecast of $10,415 per ton [1] - The firm also expects LME aluminum prices to decline to $2,350 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026 [1]

12月3日（周三），艾芬豪矿业（Ivanhoe Mines）周三表示，随着开采计划的推进，预计旗下位于刚果 (金)Kamoa-Kakula矿2026年铜产量将达380,000-420,000吨，2027年将进一步增加至500,000-540,000吨。 （文华综合） ...

12月3日（周三），铜价升至创纪录高位，受美元走软、供应担忧以及在伦敦金属交易所（LME）注册 的仓库中金属库存趋紧等因素支撑。 LME三个月期铜上涨1.98%，至每吨11,366.00美元，此前触及纪录高位11,434.50美元。 伦敦金属交易所数据显示，周二亚洲仓库净注销仓单50,725吨，使铜注册仓单降至7月以来最低的 105,275吨。 Smith补充道："这些库存是否会实际流出仓库仍有待观察，但鉴于纽约商品交易所铜价相对伦敦基准价 格的溢价，市场仍存在向美国出口铜的强烈意愿。"这种溢价正吸引铜流入本就处于历史高位的纽约铜 库存。 LME现货铜相对三个月期铜合约溢价周二触及每吨69美元，创10月中旬以来最高，表明短期供应出现 紧张态势。 对美国联邦储备理事会（美联储，Fed）下周降息的预期升温，以及美元走软也支撑了基本金属的上行 动能。 大宗商品研究机构分析主管Dan Smith表示："铜价在创出新高后走势相当强劲，算法模型持续发出买入 信号。价格很有可能会从当前水平攀升至每吨12,000美元。" 欧元区11月商业活动以两年半来最快速度扩张，这些数据进一步强化了本已支撑铜价的多重利好因素。 美元走软使 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that severe supply disruptions and global inventory imbalances will drive copper prices to reach $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Copper Market - The anticipated rise in copper prices is expected to influence aluminum prices, with projections indicating that aluminum could surpass $3,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a historic high of $11,540 per ton, closing at $11,487.50, driven by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight warehouse supplies [1][3] - The three-month copper price has increased by 31% year-to-date, marking the largest annual gain since 2017 [3] - LME data showed a net cancellation of 50,725 tons in Asian warehouses, reducing registered copper stocks to the lowest level since July at 105,275 tons, intensifying bullish market sentiment [3] Group 2 - Dan Smith, Managing Director of Commodity Market Analytics, predicts copper prices could rise to $12,000 per ton following the recent high [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that supply disruptions and global inventory imbalances will push copper prices to $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [4] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average LME copper price forecast to $10,710 per ton from a previous estimate of $10,415 per ton [4] Group 3 - Glencore has lowered its copper production forecast for 2026 but aims to achieve an annual production target of 1.6 million tons by 2035 through new mines, restarts of old mines, and improved operational efficiency [3] - The premium of LME spot copper over the three-month contract reached $86 per ton, the highest since mid-October, indicating recent supply tightness [3] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month tin rising by 4.46% to $40,780 per ton, reaching its highest point since May 2022 [4]

12月3日(周三)，高盛将2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所(LME) 铜均价预测上调至每吨10,710美元，此前预 测为10,415美元/吨。 该行同时指出，预计LME铝价将在2026年第四季度跌至2,350美元/吨。 ...

沪铜早间小幅低开，日内震荡走强，收盘上涨0.13%。最近宏观氛围尚好，但铜价刷新高位过后需求转 弱，期价继续上行略显乏力，市场需要看到更多利多信号。 近期市场对于美联储12月是否降息的押注出现了较大变化，当前投资者预计后续货币政策整体偏鸽，市 场风险偏好整体偏暖，为铜价高位运行提供温床。 （文华综合） 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，近期宏观降息预期升温，基本面CSPT共识消息强化未来精铜转紧预 期，短期宏微观在预期层面有合力。但现实尚需兑现，铜价偏强边际或放缓，未来关注政策路径，以及 非美能否兑现去库。 矿紧局面困扰铜市已久，最近隐隐有向冶炼端传导的迹象，且国内冶炼厂表态明年将减产应对，供应端 担忧再度提振铜价走势。截至周初机构统计的数据显示，国内精铜社会库存仍在进一步回落，不过最近 铜价整体回归高位区间，下游采购需求受到一定的抑制，现货升水状态更多是受市场货源有限影响。最 近精铜杆企业成交较为平淡，新增订单显著减少。与此同时，最近精废价差有所增加，但废铜需求同样 受限，整体市场活跃度一般。 ...

（文华综合） 当前锡价高位运行背景下，下游企业询价及挂单意愿清淡，观望情绪愈发浓厚，现货市场成交维持平淡 态势。下游订单以刚需为主，消费电子领域需求不振，终端企业当前以消化库存为核心，刚需采买节奏 平缓，终端订单恢复进程缓慢，整体需求端支撑力度偏弱。综合来看，锡市呈现"供应担忧主导价格上 涨，实际需求支撑不足"的分化格局，锡价受地缘政治扰动及供应端情绪推动显著走高，资金参与度较 高，沪锡持仓量突破10万手，短期内资金炒作氛围浓厚。 对于后市，金源期货评论表示，特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席，美元小幅收跌，且日债拍卖 企稳，修复市场情绪，锡价震荡运行。当前刚果金武装冲突尚未对锡矿生产构成实质性冲击，但运输成 本上升，加剧市场对脆弱供应端的担忧。短期宏观中性偏好，且供应端支撑强化，预计锡价仍易涨难 跌。 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约收涨2.15%，报312370元/吨。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面： 一是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续 升温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推 动锡价走强。 当前国 ...

Group 1 - Chile's copper exports in November reached 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons exported to China [1] - In November, Chile's total copper ore and concentrate exports amounted to 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons sent to China [1] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [2]

（文华综合） 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约涨超2%，逼近周一高点。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面：一 是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续升 温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推动 锡价走强。 ...