Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the recovery in earnings and the potential for further growth in the market. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market has seen an increase, reaching close to 4.9 stars, with a slight pullback at the close but still maintaining a 5-star rating [1][2] - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks have experienced gains, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index showing a slight increase while small-cap stocks have risen more significantly [3][4] - The pharmaceutical and technology sectors have led the gains in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5][6] Group 2: Earnings Growth - In the first quarter of this year, there has been a notable improvement in earnings data for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index showing a year-on-year earnings growth of approximately 4-5% and the Hang Seng index showing around 16% [11] - The gap in performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks widened after the Spring Festival, with Hong Kong stocks rising about 20% more than A-shares [14] - The recovery in earnings is primarily driven by large-cap companies in Hong Kong, while smaller stocks have seen a decline in earnings [24][25] Group 3: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The article notes that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were at historically low valuation levels around 5.9 stars last year, and the current valuations are still relatively low [12][29] - The market has been in a sideways trend for about six months, with A-shares fluctuating around the 5-star mark due to low valuations and lack of earnings growth [22][21] - The potential for upward movement in A-shares is contingent on a recovery in earnings growth, which has shown early signs in the first quarter [32][30] Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that A-shares may follow a similar upward trend as Hong Kong stocks, as historically, similar types of stocks tend to have comparable long-term returns [26] - The current low valuation of A-shares indicates limited downside risk, and patience is advised while waiting for earnings growth to materialize [29][30] - If the earnings growth accelerates in the second and third quarters, it could positively impact the A-share index [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price and Historical Context - The price of gold is primarily referenced through Shanghai Gold, with its movements closely mirroring those of London Gold, mainly influenced by exchange rate fluctuations [6][7]. - Historical data shows that in June 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 stars, while it reached over 4 stars during its lowest valuation in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 was marked by a prolonged bear market for gold, which lasted longer than the historical bear market of A-shares [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The three main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A substantial decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while a rise results in a decrease [13][14]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant buying opportunity [19]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases during such times [20][21]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate around 30% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position. The risk level of gold is generally lower than that of average stock assets but higher than that of bond assets [24][25]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds usually yield slightly lower returns than the actual gold price due to management fees and cash reserves [30][31]. - Physical gold can be acquired in various forms, including: 1. **Gold Bars**: Available at banks and jewelry stores, often with minimal fabrication fees [37]. 2. **Panda Gold Coins**: Issued by the People's Bank of China, these coins are known for their quality and are relatively easy to trade [38][39]. 3. **Gold Jewelry**: Typically carries high fabrication costs, making it less ideal for investment purposes unless purchased at a discount [43].

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to serve as an investment consultant for funds [1] - Fund advisory emerged to address the issue where "funds make money, but investors do not" [4] - Fund advisory has advantages in helping investors achieve better returns through its dual role of "advising" and "investing" [5] Group 2 - Various industries utilize consultants, especially those with high specialization [2] - The article suggests that just as one needs a doctor for medical issues or a lawyer for legal problems, fund advisory serves a similar purpose in the investment realm [7]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of personal retirement planning, which is a topic of significant interest to many individuals [1] - A free course is offered that outlines six key steps to assist individuals in effectively planning for retirement [2] - Additional resources such as course notes and mind maps are available to enhance understanding and learning efficiency [2]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问螺丝钉，能不能针对 全球股票指数、美债指数等 ， 做个估值表。 目前内地能买到的、投资海外市场的基金品种不多。 不过在海外这些品种比较丰富。 可以先从指数估值的角度，了解海外市场不同品种的估值情况。 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。 每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 海外市场指数数量很多，后面大家 有希望增加的品种 ，可以反馈给螺丝钉。 目前螺丝钉后台系统，已经覆盖海外主流的几百只指数品种。 1. 本周全球股票市场整体上涨。 全球股票市场指数，回到了3.3星。 全球股票指数，已经把4月初关税危机的跌幅全部收复，并超过年初的位置。 不过因为财报更新，全球股票市场盈利上涨，消化了一部分估值。 所以估值上，全球股票市场比去年底还降低了。 美股标普500本周上涨1.5%。 全球非美股市场本周上涨1.6%。 港股本周领涨，恒生指数上涨2.16%。 恒生科技本周上涨2.2%，港股科技指数上涨超4%。 港股科技、恒生科技是同类品种。 港股科技是中证指数公司编制，成分股在50只；恒生科技是恒生指数公司编制，成分股在3 ...

这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如 何投资？ ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "lying flat" versus "rolling up" in the context of diminishing opportunities in a slowing economy, emphasizing the importance of innovation, both disruptive and incremental, as a means to personal and societal progress [2][16][17]. Group 1: Economic Context - The article highlights that past decades have seen several waves of era-specific dividends driven by urbanization, technological innovation, and globalization, but recent trends indicate a reversal of globalization and a slowdown in economic growth [3][4]. - The current economic environment has led to a reduction in opportunities across many sectors, making the choice to "lie flat" a seemingly rational response [4]. Group 2: Types of Innovation - Two types of innovation are identified: disruptive innovation, which is rare and often associated with significant breakthroughs, and incremental innovation, which is more accessible and can be practiced by anyone [5][11]. - Examples of disruptive innovation include the invention of the smartphone by Steve Jobs and the launch of Tesla by Elon Musk, while incremental innovations can be as simple as improving daily work habits [10][12]. Group 3: Importance of Incremental Innovation - Incremental innovation is presented as a necessary foundation for disruptive innovation, requiring consistent effort and skill development over time, often referred to as the "10,000-hour rule" [14][15]. - The article encourages individuals to engage in small, daily improvements as a way to prepare for future opportunities, emphasizing that even minor changes can lead to significant personal growth [18][19]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article concludes by stressing that while hard work is essential, the choice of profession significantly impacts income potential, suggesting that individuals should consider how to enhance their income within their current field [20].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微跌，波动不大，还在5星。 大小盘股略微下跌。 时间拉长后，盈利上涨是推动指数上涨的发动机。 对港股来说， （1）前几年有过一波盈利下降，发动机不仅熄火，还挂了倒档。 这也是之前港股一路下跌到5.9星的原因。 甚至在底部的时候，港股的跌幅比A股还大不少。 A股这轮熊市最大回撤大约40%上下，港股恒生指数达到腰斩。 （2）2023-24年港股逐渐恢复增长。 价值风格比较坚挺，优选300等微涨，成长风格微跌。 港股也微跌。 1. 港股今年以来涨幅比较高。 也是得益于基本面的复苏。 再重温下指数投资的底层公式： 指数净值=估值*盈利+分红 估值在一定范围内波动。 2025年1季度，港股迎来了最近4年盈利增长最好的阶段。 盈利增长，叠加去年从5点几星估值提升，推动港股成为全球表现最好的市场之一。 （3）A股1季度也有盈利同比增长，但没有港股这么明显。 不过这里也不用太羡慕港股。 今年的业绩高速增长，其实是前几年业绩低迷的反弹。 而经济总会有周期性。 未来港股也会不断的经历「低迷-景气」的周期循环。 也正是因为经济的周期性，才永远不缺少低估买入的机会；也不用担心没有下一轮 ...