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【乘联分会论坛】8月狭义乘用车零售预计194.0万辆,新能源预计110.0万辆
乘联分会· 2025-08-22 13:23
Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in July experienced a temporary slowdown due to seasonal factors and the transition period of the vehicle replacement policy, but is expected to stabilize and grow in August with the resumption of subsidies [2][3]. Group 1: July Market Review - In July, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 1.844 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.6% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles were 987,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a penetration rate of 53.5% [2]. Group 2: August Market Outlook - The new batch of subsidy funds has been allocated, leading to the resumption of vehicle replacement subsidies across various provinces, which is expected to stabilize the market in August [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Recent manufacturer surveys indicate that the retail targets of leading manufacturers, which account for nearly 80% of the total market, have increased by approximately 5% month-on-month, remaining stable year-on-year [4]. - The estimated total retail market for narrow-sense passenger vehicles in August is around 1.94 million units, representing a month-on-month growth of 6.2% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [4]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of August, the average daily retail was 45,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% but a month-on-month increase of 5.6% [5]. - The second week saw a recovery in the market with average daily retail reaching 59,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [5]. - The estimated average daily sales for the third week is 66,700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [5]. Group 5: August Market Growth - The market is showing signs of stable growth in August, with the end of discounts and improved price stability due to policy regulations and industry self-discipline [7]. - The total retail market for narrow-sense passenger vehicles in August is projected to be around 1.94 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach approximately 1.1 million units and a penetration rate of 56.7% [7].
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年8月22日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-22 13:23
Domestic News - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first seven months of 2025 increased by 8.0% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.5%, and private investment rising by 5.6% [2] - Henan province is promoting the integration and cluster development of strategic emerging industries, focusing on enhancing the scale and competitiveness of sectors like new information technology, high-end equipment, and new energy vehicles [3] - Shenyang is launching an autumn automobile consumption subsidy program from August 22 to September 5, 2025, with a total subsidy of 50 million yuan available for eligible consumers [4] - Shenzhen's exports of "new three samples" products, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, reached 62.18 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [5] - The National Hydrogen Energy Vehicle Industry Measurement and Testing Center has been approved for establishment to enhance the core competitiveness of the hydrogen energy vehicle industry [6] - FAW Bestune and Jiangsu Yueda Group have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in various fields, including equity investment and supply chain coordination [7] - NIO's chairman Li Bin announced that the company has invested over 18 billion yuan in charging and battery swapping infrastructure over the past decade, with more than 8,100 charging and battery swapping stations established nationwide [8] - A joint laboratory for low-carbon recycling of power batteries has been established in Wuhan, aiming to promote the low-carbon circular economy of power batteries through collaboration among key industry players and academic institutions [9] Foreign News - The United States and the European Union have reached a trade agreement framework, which includes a commitment from the EU to purchase at least $400 billion worth of American AI chips for data center construction by 2028 [10] - In July 2025, new car sales in Malaysia experienced a slight decline of 5% year-on-year, with total sales for the first seven months also down by 5% compared to the previous year [11] - eBay has introduced a free return service for eligible automotive parts purchases, enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [12] - Hyundai and Kia's market share in Saudi Arabia rose to 23% in the first half of 2025, selling a total of 96,160 vehicles [12] Commercial Vehicles - JAC's multiple models have won awards for the highest resale value in the commercial vehicle sector, reflecting their strong product quality and service ecosystem [15] - DeepWay's new energy heavy truck "Xingtu" has completed its first batch of deliveries, marking a significant milestone in the large-scale application of new energy heavy trucks [16] - FAW Jiefang's natural gas engine has entered the South American market, specifically in Peru, aligning with the region's growing demand for environmentally friendly vehicles [17] - Yuchai's new methanol engine has been successfully ignited, expanding its product family and supporting the green transition in various applications [18][19]
【深度分析】2025年7月份全国乘用车市场深度分析报告
乘联分会· 2025-08-21 08:34
Overall Market - The report provides an in-depth analysis of the domestic and international wholesale sales of passenger vehicles, focusing on narrow and broad definitions of passenger cars [1][4] - In July 2025, the production and sales figures for narrow passenger cars were 2,255,670 units produced and 2,243,361 units wholesaled, with retail sales reaching 1,843,625 units [6][10] - Year-on-year growth for narrow passenger cars in July 2025 was 13.4% for production, 14.1% for wholesale, and 7.3% for retail [6][10] Model Category Segmentation - The market share changes for various model categories, including sedans, MPVs, and SUVs, are analyzed, showing different growth rates and sales figures for July 2025 [4][15] - In July 2025, sedans accounted for 841,663 units sold, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, while SUVs had sales of 910,767 units, growing by 7.8% [6][15] Country Segmentation - The report details market share changes by country, highlighting the performance of different vehicle categories across various national markets [3][22] - For July 2025, the Japanese brands showed a year-on-year growth of 6.1% in retail sales, while German brands experienced a decline of 12.6% [23][24] Brand Positioning Segmentation - The analysis includes market share changes among different brand categories, with luxury brands like BMW and Audi showing significant performance metrics [4][29] - In July 2025, luxury brands accounted for 13.2% of the total market, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% in cumulative retail sales [29][31] Price Positioning Segmentation - The report categorizes the market based on price segments, distinguishing between vehicles priced at or above 300,000 yuan and those below [4][35] - In July 2025, vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan represented 89.3% of total sales, while those priced at or above 300,000 yuan accounted for 10.7% [35][37]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年8月21日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-21 08:34
Domestic News - In Jiangsu Province, fixed asset investment from January to July decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.8% and manufacturing investment declining by 2.2% [2] - In Liaoning Province, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 7.8% [3] - In Henan Province, the production of new energy vehicles surged nearly fourfold in July, with a year-on-year increase of 389.53% [4] - Geely launched the industry's first AI cockpit, integrating a unified user ID across all its brands [5][6] - Great Wall Motors is preparing to establish a super luxury car brand and is seeking suppliers with experience in high-end brand services [7] - Skyworth Automotive has become a first-tier supplier for Hongqi, focusing on smart cockpit information and entertainment displays [8] - The L4-level Robotaxi service by Zhiji Automotive has officially launched in Shanghai, connecting the international tourism resort with the airport [9] - Tai Lan New Energy has established a solid-state battery production base in Wuhan, focusing on safety and performance improvements [10] International News - California is working on new automotive emission standards and may introduce new electric vehicle tax credits [11] - Honda has established a new company in India to provide sales financing services for its vehicles [12] - Tata Motors has returned to the South African market after a six-year absence, launching several SUV models [13] - Japan's automobile exports to the U.S. fell by 28.4% in July, amounting to 422 billion yen (approximately 2.86 billion USD) [14] Commercial Vehicles - JAC Motors has entered the Indonesian market, launching three electric commercial vehicles [16] - The UK government has extended subsidies for electric vans and trucks until 2027, with specific subsidy amounts yet to be determined [17] - Chongqing is focusing on safety inspections for light trucks under 4.5 tons as part of a broader traffic safety initiative [18] - Ram has announced the upcoming release of a mid-size pickup truck to compete in the South American market [19]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年8月20日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-20 08:33
Domestic News - Shanghai is accelerating the application of robots in industries such as electronics, automotive, and equipment, focusing on high-risk and repetitive tasks to improve production efficiency and safety [6] - Guangdong encourages industries to purchase domestic satellite data and products, promoting satellite applications in aviation, maritime, and automotive sectors [7] - Heilongjiang will provide tiered subsidies for vehicle replacement starting August 23, with subsidies ranging from 5,000 to 11,000 yuan based on the new vehicle price [8] - Xiaomi expects to achieve profitability in its automotive division in the second half of the year, with a significant revenue increase of 234% to 21.3 billion yuan in Q2 [9] - Leap Motor has launched a night service covering 23 provinces and 37 cities to enhance after-sales service convenience [11] - Seres has received authorization for a collision unlock patent, which aims to improve vehicle door unlocking speed during accidents [12] - BYD has formed a strategic partnership with Finnish dealer Veho Group to enhance its sales and service network in Finland [13] - Deep Blue Automotive's joint venture with Star Semiconductor has officially commenced production, focusing on automotive-grade power semiconductors [14] International News - The U.S. will increase tariffs on over 400 products, including electric vehicle parts, imposing a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum components [15] - Tesla is expanding its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology into Japan and Thailand, with testing already underway in Japan [16] - Ford and SK On's joint electric vehicle battery plant has officially started production in Kentucky, focusing on batteries for trucks and commercial vehicles [17] - In the Philippines, new vehicle sales saw a slight decline of 2.6% in July, with commercial vehicle sales increasing by 11% [18] Commercial Vehicles - Jiangling Motors has received international certification for its information security management system, marking its advancement in automotive cybersecurity [19] - Weishi Energy has launched a hydrogen fuel truck testing project in Brazil, collaborating with local universities for road testing [20] - The first batch of Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 electric trucks has been delivered across 15 European countries, establishing a strong presence in the zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle market [21] - Several regions in China have suspended subsidies for old freight trucks due to funding shortages, affecting 20 cities and counties [22]
【周度分析】车市扫描(2025年8月11日-8月17日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-20 08:33
Market Overview - From August 1 to 17, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 866,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 13.611 million units, up 10% year-on-year [2][4] - During the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars amounted to 841,000 units, representing a 20% year-on-year increase and a 7% month-on-month increase. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 16.366 million units, up 13% year-on-year [2][7] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - Retail sales of new energy passenger cars from August 1 to 17 reached 502,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 58.0%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 6.958 million units, up 28% year-on-year [2][5] - Wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars during the same period were 474,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a 10% month-on-month increase. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, with cumulative wholesale sales for the year at 8.108 million units, up 34% year-on-year [2][5] Economic Context - China's economy grew at a robust rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, easing pressures on local economic growth. Recent promotional policies in various regions have been steadily advancing, with the third batch of subsidy funds distributed in late July [5] - The "trade-in" policy has been reactivated in some areas, with more diversified subsidy methods expected to improve sales growth in August. However, the high sales base from August last year may lead to weaker growth rates this month [5] Production and Sales Trends - In July 2025, automobile production reached 2.51 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. New energy vehicle production was 1.18 million units, up 17%, with a penetration rate of 47% [12] - Cumulative production from January to July 2025 was 18.08 million units, up 11% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle production at 8.05 million units, a 33% increase [12] Charging Infrastructure - By June 2025, the total number of public charging stations reached 4.17 million, with a month-on-month increase of 91,000 stations, reflecting a 50% year-on-year growth [10] - The ratio of public charging stations to electric vehicles is approximately 1:1, indicating a relatively sufficient level of charging infrastructure to support the growing number of electric vehicles [10]
【库存系数】2025年7月汽车经销商库存系数为1.35
乘联分会· 2025-08-20 08:33
Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory level of automobile dealers in July 2025 shows a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cautious market environment with a need for careful inventory management [2][3][10]. Group 1: Inventory Levels - In July 2025, the comprehensive inventory coefficient for automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year, indicating that inventory levels are below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2][3]. - The total inventory of automobile dealers is estimated to be around 2.47 million vehicles, based on a terminal sales volume of 1.826 million passenger vehicles in July [5]. Group 2: Brand-Specific Inventory Trends - The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands rose to 1.56, an increase of 13.0% month-on-month, while the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands increased to 1.29, up 2.4% [6][9]. - In contrast, the inventory coefficient for domestic brands decreased to 1.34, down 10.7% month-on-month, reflecting a more favorable inventory situation for these brands [6][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The automobile market is expected to remain stable in August 2025, with potential growth in terminal sales due to the release of pent-up demand from the back-to-school season and various promotional events [10]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of "old-for-new and scrapping policies" to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [10].
【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2025年8月13日-8月19日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Group 1: Retail Sales - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 34,931 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [2][4] - From January to July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 284,238 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.8%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 257,014 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [2][4] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 1.5% [5][6] - In July 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.63% month-on-month [6] - By industry, the first industry saw an investment of 5,646 billion yuan (growth of 5.6%), the second industry 104,455 billion yuan (growth of 8.9%), and the third industry 178,128 billion yuan (decline of 2.3%) [6] Group 3: Industrial Production - In July 2025, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [7][8] - From January to July 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [8] - By sector, mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [8] Group 4: Energy Production - In July 2025, the production of crude oil was stable, with an output of 1,812 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [17] - Natural gas production accelerated, reaching 216 billion cubic meters in July, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [19] - Electricity production increased by 3.1% year-on-year in July, totaling 9,267 billion kilowatt-hours [21]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年8月19日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Domestic News - Beijing is accelerating the expansion of hydrogen fuel vehicles and enhancing hydrogen energy infrastructure, including applications in bicycles and drones [2] - Chongqing has announced an adjustment to its 2025 vehicle replacement subsidy policy, allocating an additional 300 million yuan for the third quarter, with specific subsidy standards for new energy and fuel vehicles [3] - The "Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season has been launched in Hubei, with 100 million yuan in consumer vouchers to stimulate local demand [4] - SAIC-GM has signed a cooperation agreement with Momenta to integrate advanced autonomous driving technology into its Buick models [5][6] - XPeng Motors has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with CITIC Bank, securing a credit line of 10 billion yuan to support its operations and development [7] - Beijing Benz's Yizhuang plant is set to produce the new all-electric CLA model, which will feature advanced driving assistance technologies and a range of 866 km [8] - Tesla has launched its first batch of V4 supercharging stations in Fujian, expanding its charging network to cover major cities [9] - NIO plans to expand into Singapore, Uzbekistan, and Costa Rica between 2025 and 2026, introducing new models in these markets [10] International News - In the Philippines, July car sales decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with total sales for the first seven months showing a slight increase of over 1% [11] - Hyundai plans to establish an assembly plant in Algeria to enhance its presence in the Middle East and Africa [12] - Canada's zero-emission vehicle sales fell by 35.2% in June, while overall vehicle sales increased by 6.2% [13] - Maruti Suzuki is expanding its SUV lineup to address declining demand for small cars, with a new model set to launch soon [14] Commercial Vehicles - The new energy Chenglong cargo truck has been launched in Hangzhou, designed for logistics and cold chain transportation [16] - Isuzu aims to make South Africa a hub for truck production in Africa, increasing local component sourcing [17] - TuDatong and DeepWay have upgraded their strategic cooperation, enhancing the perception capabilities of DeepWay's new models with advanced lidar technology [18][19] - Ford plans to unveil a new electric pickup truck in 2027, promising competitive performance and lower total ownership costs compared to existing models [20]
【联合发布】2025年7月OTA监测月报
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the monthly OTA (Over-the-Air) monitoring report, highlighting the significant increase in OTA updates across various automotive brands, with a focus on advancements in driver assistance technologies and user feedback on new features [1][4]. Industry Overview: OTA Data Summary - In July 2025, the industry updated a total of 833 features, a substantial increase from 507 in the previous month, with a focus on "driving assistance" technologies [4]. - New energy vehicle brands accounted for 382 updates, up from 133 the previous month, indicating a competitive landscape in autonomous driving features [6][7]. - Domestic brands contributed 450 updates, showing a stable performance in OTA functionality over the past year, maintaining a monthly range of 250 to 400 updates [9]. - Joint venture and luxury brands saw a drastic decline, with only one update from Buick, highlighting a slowdown in their technological advancements [11]. User Feedback: New Features - Users expressed satisfaction with the new "human-machine co-driving mode," which improved the overall experience of the NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) system by reducing the need for manual intervention [21][22]. - The addition of an ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control) switch was positively received, as it reduced instances of unexpected system downgrades during driving [25]. - Users reported that the new features enhanced the driving experience, particularly in complex traffic situations, leading to increased usage of the NGP system [23][24]. Upcoming OTA Updates - Several brands have scheduled significant OTA updates for late 2025, including advanced driving assistance features and improvements in user interface and experience [17][18]. - Notable upcoming updates include the introduction of full-scene connectivity for Huawei ADS 4.0 and various enhancements across multiple vehicle models [17]. Summary of OTA Activities - The report outlines various OTA activities across brands, indicating a trend towards continuous improvement and feature enhancement in the automotive sector [31][42].