宠粉节倒计时4天！ 因服务于体量庞大且拥有绝对话语权的整车巨头，汽零行业长期处于链条下游，在夹缝中寻找生存空间。 这种又被动又内卷的局面，使得其行业巨头市场份额至今都未能超过5%。 那么， 汽零行业究竟是不是一门赚钱的好生意？ 当智能化浪潮到来了，行业的命运是否会被改写？本期 《行行有说道》就带大家一起来了解这个带着"神秘"色彩又与我们生活息息相关的行业。视频主要聚焦以 下话题： 汽零巨头为何坐拥"庞大蛋糕"却鲜为人知？ 行业核心产业链都有哪些？ 电车革命如何颠覆行业"游戏规则"？ "年降屠刀"下，汽零企业如何求生？ 零部件集成化如何改变产业格局？ 技术升级如何打开利润天花板？ 百年巨头诞生的经验可否复制? 赚的是"辛苦钱"，但钱途何在...... 汽零行业的竞争中，充斥着各种硬核技术的博弈，当智能驾驶重构行车安全、降本35%改写行业规则，这 些"隐形冠军"正在疯狂内卷中寻找生存与突围之道。如果您有兴趣听我们细细来讲这个精彩的故事，欢迎 点击下方视频。 不知不觉间，《行行有说道》栏目已经更新了9期内容，其中不乏今年行业涨幅明显的银行、创新药等行 业。通过对每个行业或细分领域的拆解，我们从产业链、发展脉络、竞争 ...

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals are crucial for successful investing [2] - The article introduces the Kappa ratio, which compares annualized returns to maximum drawdown, indicating that a higher ratio signifies better returns while controlling for maximum drawdown, particularly relevant for fixed income plus products [3] Group 2 - The article promotes a special event for fund holders, offering prizes and incentives, which may enhance engagement and attract more investors [5]

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...

Core Insights - China's total population has been declining for three consecutive years since peaking in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027, 1.3 billion by 2039, and 1.2 billion by 2047 [2][11] - The number of newborns is expected to drop below 9 million by 2025, fall below 8 million by 2028, and potentially dip below 7 million by 2035, with a slower decline in the subsequent decade [10][11] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, expected to reach an ultra-aging society by 2032, and will match Japan's current aging level by 2048 [14][16] Population Trends - The fertility rate among women aged 15-29 is significantly higher than in Japan and the UK, but the fertility rate for women aged 30-49 is notably low, indicating a need for policies encouraging childbirth among older women [24][25] - The decline in marriage rates is attributed to gender imbalance, with a male-to-female ratio of approximately 115:100 for those born between 2006-2010, which may lead to severe gender disparities in the upcoming decade [33][36] - Educational disparities also contribute to declining marriage rates, as there are more men with lower education levels compared to women with higher education, complicating the marriage prospects for educated women [3][38] Urbanization and Migration - Urbanization rates have slowed, with the average annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to about 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [42][44] - The average age of migrant workers has risen to 43.1 years, with over 30% being over 50, indicating a trend of aging among the workforce and a decrease in population mobility [46][48] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases [62][64] Economic Implications - The industrial workforce has been declining since 2012, with projections indicating a drop from 2.32 billion in 2012 to 2.13 billion by 2024, highlighting a shift towards the service sector [72][79] - The service sector's share of GDP is expected to rise, with the third sector projected to account for 57% of GDP by 2024, compared to 36% for the secondary sector [69][79] - The aging population and rising dependency ratio will increase demand for services, necessitating a focus on developing the service industry to stabilize employment [80][100]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid fundamentals are essential for successful investment in funds [2] Group 2 - Initiating funds have lower establishment thresholds, requiring a minimum subscription amount of at least 10 million yuan and a lock-in period of 3 years, which allows for quicker establishment and diversification of investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "contraction" in both ends of the barbell strategy, highlighting the extreme situation of dividend assets and the implications for investment strategies in the current market environment [4][8]. Group 1: Barbell Strategy and Market Trends - The barbell strategy has gained popularity recently, but research indicates that both ends of the strategy are experiencing a contraction [4]. - A report from Guolian Minsheng Securities notes that the contraction of high-dividend assets has reached a historical extreme, suggesting that focusing solely on high-dividend bank stocks may yield the highest returns among various dividend asset allocations [4]. - Huabao Securities reports that micro-cap stocks are experiencing "three highs," including a record high index, increased trading volume, and a sustained high annualized discount rate [4]. Group 2: Indicators and Risks - The "contraction indicators" for both dividend and micro-cap stocks have reached historical highs, indicating an extreme level of contraction in both ends of the barbell strategy [4][6]. - When the "micro-cap contraction indicator" is high, trading volume for micro-cap stocks tends to increase, suggesting a peak in trading sentiment that requires liquidity support to maintain momentum [6]. - Historical data shows that after reaching "three highs," micro-cap stocks have faced significant drawdowns, with maximum declines of 22.94% and 23.47% in previous instances [6]. Group 3: Implications for Dividend Assets - For bank stocks, the main concern affecting their allocation value is the reduction in cost-effectiveness rather than liquidity or sentiment [8]. - Historical trends indicate that when the price of bank stocks rises and the yield spread narrows to around 2.5%, it often triggers significant market corrections [8]. - The article suggests that the current contraction can be interpreted as a form of "herding," where investors seek certainty in uncertain times, reinforcing similar trading behaviors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a structured decision-making process when considering investments in popular stocks, highlighting three critical filters to apply before making investment decisions [2][3][8]. Group 1: Decision-Making Filters - The first filter is to confirm the consistency of decision-making logic, ensuring that the rationale for buying or selling a stock remains unchanged throughout the investment process [3][4]. - The second filter advises maintaining a cautious attitude towards the notion of "this time is different," especially in the context of popular stocks, as high valuations are likely during periods of market enthusiasm [6][7]. - The third filter focuses on confirming personal preparedness for investment, including emotional readiness and understanding the risk associated with high volatility in popular stocks [8]. Group 2: Market Context - The article notes that there are many strong stocks emerging in the market this year, particularly in sectors like robotics and new consumption [2]. - It highlights the common dilemma investors face regarding whether to invest in trending stocks, suggesting that this decision is subjective and varies from person to person [2]. Group 3: Emotional and Financial Preparedness - Investors are encouraged to assess their emotional and financial readiness before pursuing high-risk investments, as volatility can lead to irrational decision-making [8]. - The article underscores that the fear of missing out (FOMO) is a common emotional challenge in investing, but emphasizes that missing an opportunity does not equate to a financial loss [8].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the balance between idealism and realism in investment management, highlighting that achieving ideal outcomes requires addressing real-world challenges [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is rooted in value investing, aiming to help more people achieve financial success through this approach [7]. - The gap between ideal and reality is acknowledged, with the understanding that while ideals may be distant, practical solutions must be found to bridge this gap [5][6]. - The focus is on making ideals a reality rather than allowing them to remain unattainable [6]. Group 2: Performance Evaluation - Performance evaluation is not solely based on quantitative metrics like net asset value growth but also includes client experience and satisfaction [7][10]. - The goal is to increase the proportion of clients who earn money, with ongoing exploration of what constitutes "doing well" in investment management [7][10]. - The anxiety regarding future performance and client trust is acknowledged, emphasizing the need for consistent results to build and maintain trust [9][10]. Group 3: Market Perspective - The discussion includes insights on the banking sector, particularly regarding interest margins, which have been narrowing but may experience short-term recovery due to recent changes in deposit interest rates [31][32]. - The investment strategy for banking stocks is based on a long-term perspective rather than short-term trends, with a focus on acceptable pricing despite ongoing challenges [32][33]. Group 4: Decision-Making Process - The decision-making process for investments is described as an intersection of price and understanding, where both elements must align for a purchase to be justified [26][28]. - The importance of thorough research and understanding of market conditions is emphasized, particularly in relation to emerging sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [26][28]. Group 5: Strategy and Individuality - Investment strategies are not ranked as better or worse; rather, their effectiveness depends on the individual investor's characteristics and goals [17][18]. - The alignment between a fund manager's strategy and their personal attributes is crucial for achieving successful outcomes [19][20].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in selecting investment funds, suggesting that a solid understanding of fund basics is crucial for successful investing [2] - Key indicators to focus on when selecting funds include win rate, return rate, and drawdown data. A stable product should demonstrate the ability to consistently outperform benchmarks, with daily win rates relative to benchmarks serving as a significant reference [3] - The frequency of net value hitting new highs is also highlighted as an important metric, indicating smoother return curves [3] Group 2 - The article promotes an event called "中泰资管616宠粉节," encouraging fund holders to participate for a chance to win various prizes, which may enhance engagement and interest in the fund offerings [5]

人类最伟大的能力，不是知道答案，而是永远保持提问与重构答案的可能。 L. G. Valiant 在规则明确、数据丰富的任务中AI已展现出越来越强大的超人类能力。比如OpenAI宣称，GPT-4参加了多 种基准考试，包括美国律师资格考试、法学院入学考试LSAT、SAT数学部分和证据性阅读与写作部分考 试等。在这些测试中，GPT-4得分高于88%的人类应试者。 AI技术的快速进展和成熟，无疑从很多方面影响和改变着我们的生活和工作方式，尤其是在 整合共识和 主流叙事、优化"已知"领域的运行效率 方面，现有的AI模型已体现出强大的能力。 相比与当前的AI，人类的价值和竞争优势体现在哪里？个人赞同以下观点， 保持对异常现象的好奇心， 勇于挑战共识，提出有价值的假说，仍是人类最值得珍视的能力。 AI的优势：高效整合历史经验和共识， 优化"已知"领域的运行效率 当前以大语言模型（LLMs）为代表的AI模型，仍然是一个 数据和计算驱动，基于历史频率、相关性及均 值的统计归纳系统 。它的"智能"，是基于"同一事物可以通过无限种方式被陈述、表达和表征"这一事 实。其能力源于语言表征的泛化能力，即能够将一种表达方式转化为另一种表达 ...