Core Viewpoint - Joel Greenblatt is a prominent figure in value investing, known for his unique blend of investment practice, academic teaching, and thought leadership. He achieved remarkable returns through Gotham Capital and later transitioned to Gotham Asset Management, promoting a systematic value strategy known as the "Magic Formula" [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Approach - Greenblatt exemplifies a rational approach to market analysis, focusing on logic to achieve returns. His investment story involving a bank stock highlights the importance of structural undervaluation and the potential of unconventional investors [2][3]. - The narrative emphasizes that good investments do not depend on the investor's background, encouraging a focus on financial analysis and logical reasoning [2]. Group 2: Case Study of Hudson City Bank - In August 1999, Greenblatt and a supermarket employee identified Hudson City Bank as a unique investment opportunity due to its complex capital structure and the lack of market interest [10][12]. - Hudson City Bank was transitioning from a mutual bank to a publicly traded entity, allowing depositors to purchase shares during its IPO. This two-step conversion process provided a potential for significant value appreciation [14][15][20]. - The bank's initial public offering sold 47% of its shares, with the remaining 53% held by a mutual holding company (MHC), which could later sell its shares without diluting existing shareholders [20][21]. - The bank demonstrated strong financial metrics, including high return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA), with a consistent increase in net income and efficiency ratios [24][26][28]. - Greenblatt and the supermarket employee's investment in Hudson City Bank resulted in an impressive 829% increase in stock price over four years, showcasing the effectiveness of their analysis and investment strategy [31]. Group 3: Value Investor Club - The success of the Hudson City Bank investment inspired Greenblatt to establish the Value Investors Club, a platform for like-minded investors to share insights based on logic rather than background [33][34]. - The club has produced notable investors, including Michael Burry, who gained recognition for his independent analysis and investment acumen [35][36]. - The story illustrates that alpha can originate from any source, reinforcing the idea that diligent analysis and logical reasoning are key to successful investing [37].

橡树资本联合创始人、《投资最重要的事》作者霍华德 · 马克斯在投资圈被人津津乐道，不是因为他 预测准确，也不是因为他的财富规模，而是他独特而坦率的思考方式。 去年 10 月份，他和盖伊 · 斯皮尔（ Guy Spier ）在一场对谈中，再次以简单、真诚的表达分享了自 己多年累积的经验与智慧。 这场对话聚焦于一个核心问题：我们应该如何聪明的思考，而非盲目努力？ 霍华德认为，聪明的思考首先意味着承认自己的局限，理解市场的不确定性。他在对话中多次强调： " 没人真正知道未来会发生什么，包括我自己。 " 其次，聪明思考还体现在投资之外的人生态度上。霍华德并不主张以投资为核心的唯一导向，他坦言自 己喜欢开心生活。 他明确表示，生活不该围绕着成为一个 " 更好的投资人 " 来安排，而是应该遵从自己内心真正的兴趣 与快乐。 对那些初入投资世界的人，霍华德同样提供了坦诚而具体的建议：思考清楚自己的最终目标是什么，然 后再做决定。不是追求盲目的规模扩张，而是专注于长期稳定的表现；不是为迎合市场而写作，而是敢 于表达真实观点，哪怕短期看来并不讨喜。 盖伊 · 斯皮尔也是一位有名的价值投资者，曾以 65 万美元的高价赢得与沃伦 · ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. manufacturing sector, emphasizing that the decline is not solely due to external competition but rather the inability of manufacturing to meet the capital return expectations of American investors [3][12][17]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The article highlights that the U.S. manufacturing industry struggles to provide high capital returns, leading to a decrease in its economic share [12][17]. - It points out that while many attribute the decline to high labor costs or foreign competition, the core issue lies in the inability to generate sufficient returns for capital [12][17]. - The case of Emerson, which transitioned from a manufacturing company to a software company, illustrates the broader trend of manufacturing firms adapting to market demands [15][17]. Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Philosophy - Berkshire Hathaway's investment strategy is discussed, particularly its focus on capital efficiency and long-term returns, as seen in the acquisition of Forest River [6][11][17]. - The article contrasts Berkshire's approach with that of its competitor, Progressive Insurance, highlighting differences in governance and incentive structures [26][41]. - It notes that Berkshire has historically favored traditional industries but may need to adapt to changing market dynamics to maintain its capital return levels [21][24][39]. Group 3: Capital Efficiency in the U.S. - The article asserts that the U.S. is the most capital-efficient region globally, with stable economic growth and high capital market returns [19][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of aligning talent incentives with shareholder interests to sustain long-term capital returns [25][39]. - The discussion includes the impact of technological advancements on capital efficiency, suggesting that industries must evolve to remain competitive [19][20]. Group 4: Long-term Shareholder Perspective - The article reflects on the loyalty of Berkshire's long-term shareholders, who value the trustworthiness and integrity of the company's leadership [46][47]. - It suggests that the focus on capital safety and stable returns is crucial for maintaining shareholder confidence [47][48]. - The article concludes with a hopeful outlook for Berkshire's future under its current leadership, emphasizing the importance of continued effective capital allocation [45][48].

"宏观投资的关键点之一：政策不一定要成功，只要它足够激进，市场就会剧烈反应，而那正是投资机 会所在。" "你必须相信，任何事情都有可能发生。你永远不知道变化什么时候会来，但你得随时准备好去应对。" "很多人喜欢填字游戏、打桥牌，但对我来说，投资就是最好的智力游戏。" "投资的本质：只做最有把握的交易。" "我是一个谨慎的乐观主义者 。" "乔治 · 索罗斯的世界观与众不同，他天生就是一个市场捕猎者。但我认为，他做过最伟大的投资，就 是发现了斯坦 · 德鲁肯米勒。" "人生中真正重要的，是那些一直在你身边的人：是他们在你低谷时拉你一把，在你得意时提醒你别 飘。" 这是去年 10 月现任美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（ Scott Bessent ）在美国大选结果出来之前的一场 对话。时隔半年多回头看，还是很有意思。 过去三个多月，围绕特朗普政府新一轮关税政策的争议持续发酵，市场波动剧烈，贸易预期反复，身为 财长的贝森特一度存在感有限。但就像摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙对他的评价，"是个有分寸的人"。 在刚刚举行的中美经贸会谈中，作为美方代表的贝森特，显示了在核心决策圈的份量。 斯科特 · 贝森特在任职财长之前，是 ...

看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信congmingtzz1/ 手机13262200706 】，添加备注 "合作+机构名+姓名 " 具体 商议 1、 18年年化33%！《滚雪球》作者详解巴菲特一笔鲜为人知的个人投资，完整还原他的真实决策逻辑 2、 黄仁勋最新对话：如果我们自己退出某个市场，华为一定会迅速补位…… 3、 关税动荡日，名私募们的仓位都在近年来的高点…… 4、 600亿美元资本大佬怼特朗普关税：这就是"累退税"，对工薪家庭冲击最大 本周 推荐阅读 说到做到的巴菲特股东会全文实录来了： 典藏版｜2025巴菲特股东大会完整实录（上半场） 以及 2025巴菲 特股东大会完整实录（下半场） ，适合周末细细品。 其他值得看 喜欢就点击 在 看 ，让微信记住你的 兴趣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the essence and risks of businesses, particularly through the lens of financial statements, especially the balance sheet, rather than just focusing on profit margins [9][10][11]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The company values a deep understanding of the core business and its risks, as demonstrated by Warren Buffett's focus on the balance sheet during acquisitions [6][9]. - The company believes that the balance sheet reveals more about a business's true nature than the income statement, which can often be misleading [10][11]. - The management team is committed to maintaining a strong financial structure and reputation while allocating capital strategically [16][18]. Group 2: Capital Allocation Strategy - The company plans to continue its traditional approach to capital allocation, focusing on familiar business sectors and ensuring a robust capital structure [19]. - The management will prioritize 100% ownership acquisitions and investments in publicly traded companies, ensuring a thorough understanding of their long-term economic prospects [20]. - The company recognizes the need for significant capital investment in the energy sector to meet future demands, indicating a shift in focus towards this area [28][81]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Challenges - The company acknowledges a structural change in the regulatory environment affecting public utilities, which has led to a significant decline in valuations [75][77]. - The management is aware of the increasing risks associated with natural disasters, such as wildfires, and is actively working on strategies to mitigate these risks [44][46]. - The company emphasizes the importance of collaboration with government entities to address systemic issues in the energy sector [25][66]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is cautious about future investments in public utilities due to changing market dynamics and regulatory challenges [80]. - The management is focused on building trust and a solid reputation to attract future capital investments [81]. - The company is committed to continuous learning and adaptation in response to evolving risks and market conditions [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique and record-breaking nature of the 60th Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, highlighting Warren Buffett's reflections and the transition of leadership to Greg Abel by the end of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Attendance and Records - A record attendance of 19,700 people was noted at the meeting, surpassing last year's record of 16,200 [2]. - Various companies associated with Berkshire Hathaway also reported record sales during the event, including See's Candies with sales of $317,000 compared to $283,000 last year [4], and Brooks with sales of $310,000, marking a historical high [5]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett confirmed that Greg Abel will officially take over the leadership of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year, marking a significant transition for the company [1]. - The board of directors has implemented an age limit policy, reflecting a shift towards a more structured governance approach [15]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Buffett emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced trade environment, discussing his past proposal of "import certificates" as a means to address trade deficits, which he believes is crucial for long-term growth [35][36]. - The company holds a significant cash reserve of over $300 billion, which Buffett attributes to practical considerations rather than a strategic move to prepare for leadership transition [56][58]. Group 4: International Investments - Buffett discussed the successful investments in Japan, highlighting the strong performance of Japanese companies and the intention to maintain long-term relationships with them [41][45][52]. - The company is focused on building partnerships with Japanese trading companies, viewing these relationships as opportunities for future growth [48][51]. Group 5: Real Estate vs. Stock Investments - Buffett expressed a preference for stock investments over real estate, citing the complexities and time-consuming nature of real estate transactions compared to the efficiency of stock trading [66][70]. - He noted that the stock market offers more opportunities and flexibility, making it a more attractive option for investment [67][72]. Group 6: AI and Insurance - The potential impact of artificial intelligence on the insurance industry was discussed, with a focus on how it could reshape risk assessment and pricing [75]. - Buffett indicated that while Berkshire Hathaway is exploring AI applications, the company prefers to observe and understand the technology before making significant investments [76].

在 4 月初的关税大跌日来临之前，私募投资管理人的仓位多数达到最近几年的高点。 翻看 3 月底重点跟踪私募部分产品的月报，能看到彼时的乐观。一些过往 5-6 成的私募将仓位加到 8-9 成，也有不少私募保持满仓不能再满了。 4 月结束，正好是上市公司季报披露完毕，也是私募管理人 3 月份月报集中推出的时间点，照例盘点 mark 下。 总体而言，医药板块配置比例在多家私募中明显上升，仁桥夏俊杰将医药仓位从 9.6% 提升至 12.5% ；世诚投资陈家琳也明确指出 " 医药板块的复兴只是开始 " ；重阳投资对于创新药的看好更是体现在 个股和港股创新药 etf 的持仓当中。 加仓房地产及物业股的也不少，除了宁泉资产一直打的"明牌"，在港股增持碧桂园服务和万科企业，一 些私募的持仓也在上来，比如静瑞资本持仓超过 20% ，成为第二大重仓行业。 一直对紫金矿业偏爱有加的高毅资产邓晓峰，自 2023 年一季度起连续 7 个季度减持，在 2024 年四 季度恢复增持，今年一季度更是继续加码。同期还新进了云铝股份和中国铝业的前十大流通股东，这两 家公司都是他的过往爱股。在有色金属深度研究中赚到大钱的邓晓峰，也从不放过市场波动 ...

在今年 3 月提出" AI 工厂"概念之后，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋一直在推广他的"人工智能是下一场制造业 革命"的观点。 "一个全新的产业正在诞生，即 AI 工厂产业。" "英伟达不仅造芯片，而是构建整条 AI 基础设施链条。" 在 5 月 6 日下午（美西时间） 2025 年米尔肯研究院全球大会的最新对话上，黄仁勋再次强调。 米尔肯研究院主办的年度高端论坛，聚集全球政商领袖、科技先锋和学界专家，有 " 西海岸的达沃斯 "之称。 这场对话中，最值得反复咀嚼的，是黄仁勋对 AI 、全球化与人才的三重思考。 他始终强调， AI 不是某种上层应用，而是一种新的基础设施，就像水、电、网一样，最终将嵌入每一 个行业、每一个岗位。 他说自己每天都用 AI 来训练自己，从初级到博士级别不断向下钻研。 "我建议大家百分之一百要使用 AI 。不要成为那个忽视技术结果、最后失去自己饭碗的人。" 在出口限制问题上，黄仁勋的态度保持了一致性，毕竟英伟达可是全球化最强的大块头之一。他认为， 限制几块 GPU ，改写不了一个国家的军事实力，却可能丧失全球技术标准的主导权。 "如果我们自己退出某个市场，别人一定会迅速补位。比如华为，它是全 ...

在谈论沃伦 · 巴菲特时，很多人习惯聚焦在那些耳熟能详的标签：长期持有、价值投资、复利奇迹。 但如果想真正理解，他为什么能持续几十年击败市场，仅靠这些表面印象远远不够。 2008 年，《滚雪球》作者爱丽丝 · 施罗德（ Alice Schroeder ）在弗吉尼亚大学价值投资会议的一 场 演 讲 中 ， 详 细 还 原 了 巴 菲 特 一 次 非 常 经 典 且 鲜 为 人 知 的 私 人 投 资 —— 中 部 穿 孔 卡 公 司 （ Midcontinent Tab Card Company ）。 作为巴菲特的传记作者，她曾有机会近距离接触巴菲特及其最核心的圈子，拥有独一无二的观察视角。 这场演讲真正与众不同之处在于：施罗德特别强调了巴菲特作为赔率评估者的思考逻辑。 与一般人想象的不同，巴菲特的成功，并不是依靠复杂模型或者超前预测。他像一个赛马下注师，第一 步永远是问自己：这项投资有没有灾难性风险？如果有，立即拒绝，不再浪费时间。 这种极端注重赔率评估和风险排查的思维方式，是他投资方法的出发点，也是他在长期战役中屹立不倒 的根基。 在这场演讲中，爱丽丝 · 施罗德也特别强调了巴菲特鲜为人知的一面： 他从不建 ...