"回到本质上来说，这一次对等关税的变局，掀起了全球秩序的动荡时代。" "我们认为，以 AI 浪潮为代表的新一轮科技革命将是构建平等、普惠、包容的新型全球经济秩序的关 键。" "消费的亮点反而是通过消费行为来寻找情感共鸣或者构建身份认同，现在正处于中国精神消费时代的 起点。" "港股新时代受益于国际秩序的重构，东方之珠再次灿烂，而中国资产的重估会驱动港股走出长牛。" " 总体来说，无论是红利投资还是成长型的投资，港股投资 A 股化的风格渐渐成为大势所趋。 " 投资机会，我们认为要着眼于攻守兼备。战略上首先要乐观。 中国的亮点资产可以作为进攻的"矛"， 包括以军工、科技和新消费为代表的成长型资产。红利资产和黄金是防御性的"盾"。 在节奏上要敬畏市场，关注外部冲击下中国经济基本面变化所带来的一些结构性和阶段性的风险。不要 去盲目追高，反而是要稳扎稳打，攻守兼备。 "黄金和军工是新秩序重构时代的战略性资产。" 张忆东表示，本轮国际秩序重构的震荡期内，黄金等战略性资产的价值得以重估， AI 与机器人融合的 物理智能时代或将带来科技领域的创新机遇。 在他看来，中国资产有望在"东稳西荡"的格局下成为全球资本逃离美元资产的避 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current global order is undergoing a significant restructuring, with China aiming to increase its financial weight and influence to match its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities, particularly through the rise of the renminbi and renminbi-denominated assets [1][15][37]. Group 1: Global Order and Economic Dynamics - The ongoing trade and tariff conflicts between the US and China represent a structural confrontation over the future global order, rather than mere disputes over tariffs [6][14]. - China's manufacturing dominance is increasingly misaligned with the declining financial hegemony of the US dollar, which is a root cause of current tensions [14][11]. - By 2030, China's manufacturing output is projected to account for 45% of global manufacturing, highlighting the growing disparity between China's industrial strength and the US's financial structure [10][9]. Group 2: Financial Mechanisms and Trade Relationships - The traditional dollar-based financial system is losing its effectiveness, as evidenced by the breakdown of the dollar's closed-loop mechanism in international trade, particularly in transactions between China and countries like Saudi Arabia [12][13]. - The shift towards bilateral and multilateral trade mechanisms is increasing, further weakening the dollar's dominance in global trade [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for China - China must adopt a strategy of greater openness, balance, and market orientation to enhance its economic resilience and global standing [30][39]. - The focus should be on improving domestic consumption and ensuring that economic growth benefits a broader segment of the population, thereby driving internal circulation [41][40]. - Establishing a unified market and eliminating discrimination against the private sector are essential steps for fostering a more competitive economic environment [42]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market dynamics present opportunities for investors to capitalize on China's core assets, particularly in the context of ongoing strategic competition with the US [63][64]. - The newly established CSI A500 index is seen as a representation of China's core assets, providing a high potential return for long-term investments [64][65].

《经济学人》杂志称他为 " 投资界的卡珊德拉 " （古希腊神话中的人物，她的故事充满 悲剧与象征意 义 ，在现代语境中常被用来形容那些 " 说了真话却没人相信 " 的人） ，虽然他看空市场，但预测往 往精准。 "现在价值股和成长股的估值差距太大了，处于历史的极端水平；而美国和非美市场之间的差距，也差 不多接近历史极值了。 目前格兰桑已经不再管理 GMO 的资金，但他仍然通过 " 格兰桑家族基金会 " 活跃于投资领域，该基 金会专注于应对气候变化，并将大部分资金投入了绿色风险投资企业。 在这场访谈中，杰里米 · 格兰桑再次展现了他一贯的敏锐和坦率。他并不试图用短期的市场情绪来解 释走势，而是将视角拉长，从历史的经验出发，去揭示泡沫的结构、风险的本质、投资者心理的惯性， 以及如何在极端估值和结构性偏差的市场中保持理性。 他指出，当前的市场迷雾重重，传统估值模型全面失灵。疫情后的财政刺激将大量资金送入散户手中， AI 的兴起又制造出一波 " 超级叙事 " ，而地缘政治与关税冲突则增加了政策不可预测性。这三大变量 叠加，让整个系统变得极度难以判断。 所以你该做的是两件事： 多关注价值股，少碰高估成长股，把重心放在美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13F filing reveals that Warren Buffett has maintained his position in Apple, holding 300 million shares valued at approximately $66.6 billion, which constitutes 25.76% of the total portfolio [1] Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Holdings - In Q1 2025, Buffett sold approximately 48.66 million shares of Bank of America, dropping its ranking to fourth place behind Coca-Cola [2] - Citigroup was completely liquidated, marking the end of a brief holding period that began in mid-2022 [2] - Berkshire has not disclosed one or more holdings in the latest filing, indicating potential new investments, similar to its previous stealth acquisition of Chubb Insurance [2] - Other investment activities included purchases of Sirius XM, Occidental Petroleum, and Verisign, while slightly reducing holdings in DaVita [2] - Significant increases were made in Pool Corp and Constellation Brands, along with additional investments in Domino's Pizza and aerospace manufacturer HEICO [2] Group 2: Buffett's Future Plans - Buffett discussed his decision to step back due to age, stating that he only began to feel old around 90, but he remains in good health [3] - He plans to continue coming to the office daily and will assist when necessary, indicating he is not fully retiring [3] Group 3: Other Investors' Activities - The portfolio managed by Charlie Munger's Daily Journal Corp saw a reduction in holdings of four stocks, including Alibaba, which was cut from 300,000 shares to 195,000 shares [3] - In contrast to Buffett's strategy, investors like Duan Yongping and Li Lu have significantly reduced their Apple holdings, with Duan's portfolio showing a 65% decrease in Apple shares [4]

H&H International Investment （段永平美股持仓主体）披露的最新 13F 文件显示，截至 2025 年 1 季末，组合整体持仓 市值大约 120 亿美元，较去年底的 145 亿美元下降了 16% 左右。 持股结构上也发生了不少变化，如下表所示： | 排名 | 证券名称 | 行业 | 持仓股数 | 持仓市值 | 持仓占比 | 变动情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 苹果(AAPL) | 信息技术 | 34,224,181 | 7,602,217,326 | 63.33% | -16.25% | | 2 | 伯克希尔(BRK.B) | 美盟 | 3,381,300 | 1,800,812,754 | 15.00% | -6.62% | | 3 | 拼多多(PDD) | 消费 | 7,753,900 | 917,674,065 | 7.64% | 7.27% | | ব | 西方石油(OXY) | 能源 | 13,826,100 | 682,456,296 | 5.69% | 1.83% | | ਟ | 阿里巴巴(B ...

乔尔 · 格林布拉特（ Joel Greenblatt ）是一个少数能将 " 投资实践 "" 学术教学 "" 思想传播 " 三 者兼而有之的人。 他曾在哥伦比亚大学商学院任教二十多年，是华尔街公认的价值投资布道者。早在 1985 年，他就用 " 垃圾债券之王 " 迈克尔 · 米尔肯（ Michael Milken ）的一张支票创办戈坦资本（ Gotham Capital ），随后十年实现年均回报率 50% ，堪称投资史上的奇迹。 2005 年，他又将公司转型为戈坦资产管理，管理上百亿美元的机构资金，同时在市场上推广一种以 " 神奇公式 " 为代表的系统化价值策略，这套公式的核心就是挑选兼具高盈利能力和低估值的公司。 对于喜欢用理性解构市场、以逻辑赢得收益的投资者来说，格林布拉特是一种典范。 他在《股市天才》一书中分享了很多真实案例，但最常分享的一个投资故事，正是关于一笔银行股的投 资 —— 与今天的银行股行情不同，那是一家正在从 " 互助银行 " 向上市银行转制的特殊案例。 格林布拉特从中看到了结构性的估值低估，也遇到了一位 " 非典型 " 的投资同行：一个白天在超市切 肉、晚上分析财务报表的普通人。这次经历 ...

橡树资本联合创始人、《投资最重要的事》作者霍华德 · 马克斯在投资圈被人津津乐道，不是因为他 预测准确，也不是因为他的财富规模，而是他独特而坦率的思考方式。 去年 10 月份，他和盖伊 · 斯皮尔（ Guy Spier ）在一场对谈中，再次以简单、真诚的表达分享了自 己多年累积的经验与智慧。 这场对话聚焦于一个核心问题：我们应该如何聪明的思考，而非盲目努力？ 霍华德认为，聪明的思考首先意味着承认自己的局限，理解市场的不确定性。他在对话中多次强调： " 没人真正知道未来会发生什么，包括我自己。 " 其次，聪明思考还体现在投资之外的人生态度上。霍华德并不主张以投资为核心的唯一导向，他坦言自 己喜欢开心生活。 他明确表示，生活不该围绕着成为一个 " 更好的投资人 " 来安排，而是应该遵从自己内心真正的兴趣 与快乐。 对那些初入投资世界的人，霍华德同样提供了坦诚而具体的建议：思考清楚自己的最终目标是什么，然 后再做决定。不是追求盲目的规模扩张，而是专注于长期稳定的表现；不是为迎合市场而写作，而是敢 于表达真实观点，哪怕短期看来并不讨喜。 盖伊 · 斯皮尔也是一位有名的价值投资者，曾以 65 万美元的高价赢得与沃伦 · ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. manufacturing sector, emphasizing that the decline is not solely due to external competition but rather the inability of manufacturing to meet the capital return expectations of American investors [3][12][17]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The article highlights that the U.S. manufacturing industry struggles to provide high capital returns, leading to a decrease in its economic share [12][17]. - It points out that while many attribute the decline to high labor costs or foreign competition, the core issue lies in the inability to generate sufficient returns for capital [12][17]. - The case of Emerson, which transitioned from a manufacturing company to a software company, illustrates the broader trend of manufacturing firms adapting to market demands [15][17]. Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Philosophy - Berkshire Hathaway's investment strategy is discussed, particularly its focus on capital efficiency and long-term returns, as seen in the acquisition of Forest River [6][11][17]. - The article contrasts Berkshire's approach with that of its competitor, Progressive Insurance, highlighting differences in governance and incentive structures [26][41]. - It notes that Berkshire has historically favored traditional industries but may need to adapt to changing market dynamics to maintain its capital return levels [21][24][39]. Group 3: Capital Efficiency in the U.S. - The article asserts that the U.S. is the most capital-efficient region globally, with stable economic growth and high capital market returns [19][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of aligning talent incentives with shareholder interests to sustain long-term capital returns [25][39]. - The discussion includes the impact of technological advancements on capital efficiency, suggesting that industries must evolve to remain competitive [19][20]. Group 4: Long-term Shareholder Perspective - The article reflects on the loyalty of Berkshire's long-term shareholders, who value the trustworthiness and integrity of the company's leadership [46][47]. - It suggests that the focus on capital safety and stable returns is crucial for maintaining shareholder confidence [47][48]. - The article concludes with a hopeful outlook for Berkshire's future under its current leadership, emphasizing the importance of continued effective capital allocation [45][48].

"宏观投资的关键点之一：政策不一定要成功，只要它足够激进，市场就会剧烈反应，而那正是投资机 会所在。" "你必须相信，任何事情都有可能发生。你永远不知道变化什么时候会来，但你得随时准备好去应对。" "很多人喜欢填字游戏、打桥牌，但对我来说，投资就是最好的智力游戏。" "投资的本质：只做最有把握的交易。" "我是一个谨慎的乐观主义者 。" "乔治 · 索罗斯的世界观与众不同，他天生就是一个市场捕猎者。但我认为，他做过最伟大的投资，就 是发现了斯坦 · 德鲁肯米勒。" "人生中真正重要的，是那些一直在你身边的人：是他们在你低谷时拉你一把，在你得意时提醒你别 飘。" 这是去年 10 月现任美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（ Scott Bessent ）在美国大选结果出来之前的一场 对话。时隔半年多回头看，还是很有意思。 过去三个多月，围绕特朗普政府新一轮关税政策的争议持续发酵，市场波动剧烈，贸易预期反复，身为 财长的贝森特一度存在感有限。但就像摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙对他的评价，"是个有分寸的人"。 在刚刚举行的中美经贸会谈中，作为美方代表的贝森特，显示了在核心决策圈的份量。 斯科特 · 贝森特在任职财长之前，是 ...

看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信congmingtzz1/ 手机13262200706 】，添加备注 "合作+机构名+姓名 " 具体 商议 1、 18年年化33%！《滚雪球》作者详解巴菲特一笔鲜为人知的个人投资，完整还原他的真实决策逻辑 2、 黄仁勋最新对话：如果我们自己退出某个市场，华为一定会迅速补位…… 3、 关税动荡日，名私募们的仓位都在近年来的高点…… 4、 600亿美元资本大佬怼特朗普关税：这就是"累退税"，对工薪家庭冲击最大 本周 推荐阅读 说到做到的巴菲特股东会全文实录来了： 典藏版｜2025巴菲特股东大会完整实录（上半场） 以及 2025巴菲 特股东大会完整实录（下半场） ，适合周末细细品。 其他值得看 喜欢就点击 在 看 ，让微信记住你的 兴趣 ...