Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford, a legendary asset management company, has successfully identified and invested in disruptive growth stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and SpaceX, positioning itself as a leader in long-term growth investment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Baillie Gifford was established in 1908 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, known for its long-term investment strategies [1]. - The flagship product, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT), is regarded as a benchmark for ultra-long-term investments [2]. - SMT currently manages approximately £13.3 billion in assets, with a net return of about 13% over the past year, a cumulative loss of around 30% over the last three years, and an annualized return of about 12% over the past decade [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Portfolio - SMT's recent key holdings include publicly traded companies such as MercadoLibre (5.9%), Amazon (5.6%), and Meta (4.7%), as well as private companies like SpaceX (valued at approximately £1.071 billion) and ByteDance (approximately £566 million) [3]. - The current management team, led by Tom Slater and Lawrence Burns, emphasizes resilience as a core virtue for long-term success in unpredictable environments [4][22]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Company Performance - The past year has seen significant challenges, including high interest rates and geopolitical volatility, yet many invested companies have shown impressive operational performance [7]. - Companies have adapted by reducing expansion rates and refocusing on core strengths, leading to improved profit margins and accelerated free cash flow [10][11]. Group 4: AI and Technological Advancements - The rise of generative AI has had a profound impact, particularly in software engineering, leading to significant productivity gains [12][13]. - Companies like Meta and Spotify have successfully integrated AI into their operations, enhancing efficiency and revenue growth [19][20]. Group 5: Global Investment Perspective - SMT has leveraged its global investment mandate, focusing on companies like MercadoLibre, which has shown strong performance despite macroeconomic challenges in Latin America [36]. - The investment in Nubank, a leading independent digital bank outside China, highlights the potential for growth in emerging markets [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Emerging Opportunities - Baillie Gifford is actively seeking the next generation of winners, with investments in companies like SpaceX and Aurora Innovation, which are poised to reshape their respective industries [47][50]. - The company remains committed to identifying transformative opportunities and supporting innovative firms that can deliver substantial long-term returns [57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of China's consumption and investment landscape within the global economic framework, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending while managing trade surpluses and capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Structure - China's fixed asset investment (FAI) growth has accelerated since 2020, primarily supported by high-end manufacturing, despite a significant decline in real estate investment [4][5]. - The high investment and savings rates in China have led to substantial production capacity, which is largely absorbed through exports, resulting in record trade surpluses [6][10]. - The trade surplus reached nearly $99 billion in a single month, with annual figures exceeding 7 trillion yuan, indicating strong manufacturing competitiveness but weak domestic consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Policy Measures - Recent policy measures, such as consumption vouchers, have temporarily boosted consumer spending, but their long-term effectiveness remains questionable [7]. - Consumer confidence indices show that income confidence has remained around long-term averages, but the "scar effect" from the pandemic has significantly dampened consumer sentiment [8][9]. - Household savings continue to grow, with M2 growth rebounding, yet the fundamental savings behavior of consumers has not changed [8][9]. Group 3: Global Economic Relations and Capital Flows - China's strong investment and weak consumption are likely to maintain high trade surpluses, leading to continued accumulation of foreign assets estimated at $2-3 trillion [10][12]. - The U.S. has responded to China's trade surplus with tariffs, which have not effectively reduced import costs and may have exacerbated inflationary pressures domestically [12][14]. - There is a shift in capital flows, with funds increasingly moving towards non-U.S. assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, European bonds, and offshore markets like Hong Kong [12][14]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The article highlights the potential for Hong Kong stocks to benefit from these capital flows, with significant IPO activity indicating renewed investor interest [14][15]. - The outlook for Hong Kong as a major financing center is positive, supported by the ongoing global economic interconnections and China's relative advantages [16].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will not take the main stage at the upcoming shareholder meeting, as confirmed by his daughter Susan, indicating a shift in leadership dynamics at Berkshire Hathaway [1] Group 1: Shareholder Meeting Arrangements - Susan Buffett mentioned that if health permits, Warren Buffett will sit in the front row with other board members and executives during the next shareholder meeting [1] - Greg Abel revealed that the announcement regarding the shareholder meeting's new arrangements was made due to numerous inquiries from suppliers and stakeholders about the future direction of the meeting [1] - The 2026 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 2, with a Q&A session planned for that morning, and further details will be released in early next year alongside the annual report [1] Group 2: Emotional Impact - Susan noted that many attendees were emotional during Warren Buffett's last address at the shareholder meeting, highlighting the memorable atmosphere of the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - The best way to invest in AI for sovereign funds and large capital allocators is to invest in AI infrastructure, such as data centers, energy, electricity, and network connectivity [1][72]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Long-term investors should ignore short-term market noise and focus on identifying global opportunities where the market misjudges risk [7][8]. - Successful investment requires a clear long-term strategy, a rigorous execution process, a capable team, and the courage to make decisive choices when opportunities arise [7][8]. - Risk awareness and understanding what is suitable for the institution are more important than merely pursuing maximum returns [18][22]. Group 2: Private Equity Challenges - The private equity industry has accumulated significant issues over the past few years, including valuation expansion, leverage use, and exit bottlenecks, which are now becoming real pressures [3][50]. - There are three core issues in private equity: weak due diligence, lack of exit options, and "scale drift" where fund sizes grow without a corresponding increase in target investments [51][52]. - Approximately $3 trillion in private equity portfolio companies have not exited, and many are approaching the end of their fund lifecycle, creating a perfect storm for the industry [54][60]. Group 3: U.S. Market Position - Reducing exposure to the U.S. market requires careful consideration of the consequences, as the U.S. still has the largest fixed income, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and credit markets [27][31]. - The U.S. remains an attractive investment destination due to its vibrant economy, respect for free markets, and strong capital markets [34][35]. Group 4: Public vs. Private Markets - In public markets, the biggest risk comes from index investing, where the top five stocks in the S&P 500 now account for nearly 30% of the index, creating a concentration risk [42][43]. - Active management is making a comeback as investors seek to avoid risks associated with concentrated positions in public markets [46]. - In private markets, the current environment is challenging, with many funds struggling to exit investments, leading to a focus on secondary markets as a potential solution [62]. Group 5: AI Investment Strategies - Investing in AI should focus on infrastructure enablers rather than direct investments in AI companies, as the latter may carry higher risks [72][73]. - A smart investment approach in AI infrastructure could involve structured deals that resemble debt investments, providing stable returns with lower risk [76][77]. Group 6: Learning from Mistakes - Acknowledging and learning from mistakes is crucial for investment success, emphasizing the importance of refining processes rather than relying on luck [83][84]. - Good investment decisions often involve patience and the choice to refrain from acting in uncertain situations [86].

一方面，我国正迈入"低利率"时代，票息利率呈下行趋势，信用利差逐渐收窄， 纯债基金的收益空间 被逐渐压缩 ；另一方面，关税冲突与地缘风险频发，全球政策博弈深化，政策预期与基本面现实间的 反复权衡下， 股票市场的波动也被放大…… 当暴走的黄金开始下跌，当象征着稳定的债券开始"碎蛋"，当 A 股市场在不同题材与板块之间的切换 愈发频繁 —— 市场正在用最直白的例子告诉我们： 押注单一资产不可能实现"一劳永逸"的长期回报， 资产配置才是在不确定性中力求成长的解题思路。 而历史数据也能证明这一点。 当前， 普通投资者的投资难度正在加大： 这是几种基金指数在近 5 年间的走势对比。其中，偏债混合基金指数象征了股债兼备的 " 固收 +" 类 基金，不难看出，它不像股票型基金指数一样大开大合，也比纯债基金指数更有收益弹性。 凭借资产 配置，"固收 + "基金 在相对可接受的波动范围内收获了比纯债配置更高的收益 ， 展现出兼具低波和 成长的特性。 数据来源： Wind ， 2020.5.19-2025.5.18 。 然而，并非所有"固收 + "都能兑现关于" + "的承诺。"资产配置需要科学的框架而不是简单的股债拼 盘， 真 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current international order is undergoing significant upheaval, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, marking the beginning of a new era of uncertainty [1][10][14] - The AI wave represents a new technological revolution that could help establish a more equitable and inclusive global economic order [1][18] - The Hong Kong stock market is poised for a long-term bull run, benefiting from the restructuring of international order and the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][34][41] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Strategic assets during this period of upheaval include gold, military industry, and digital assets, which serve as hedges against the dominance of the dollar [18][65] - Growth-oriented investments in technology and new consumption sectors are seen as offensive strategies, while dividend assets and gold act as defensive shields [1][58][66] - The Chinese market is expected to stabilize while Western markets face volatility, creating a favorable environment for Chinese assets [24][25][41] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market is transitioning from being foreign-led to becoming a crucial international financial center for China, supported by government policies [35][36][37] - The influx of quality companies and the rise of new consumption trends are reshaping the market landscape, with significant growth potential in sectors like technology and consumer services [40][41][66] - The investment style in Hong Kong is increasingly mirroring that of A-shares, with a focus on both growth and dividend strategies [55][56] Group 3: Economic Context - The current economic climate is reminiscent of the 1970s, with rising fiscal deficits and social tensions in the U.S., leading to a potential decline in the dollar's global standing [11][12][16] - The U.S. is facing significant internal challenges, including a high debt-to-GDP ratio and increasing wealth disparity, which could impact its global economic influence [11][12][17] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies are likely to create a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, affecting both U.S. and global markets [14][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The current global order is undergoing a significant restructuring, with China aiming to increase its financial weight and influence to match its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities, particularly through the rise of the renminbi and renminbi-denominated assets [1][15][37]. Group 1: Global Order and Economic Dynamics - The ongoing trade and tariff conflicts between the US and China represent a structural confrontation over the future global order, rather than mere disputes over tariffs [6][14]. - China's manufacturing dominance is increasingly misaligned with the declining financial hegemony of the US dollar, which is a root cause of current tensions [14][11]. - By 2030, China's manufacturing output is projected to account for 45% of global manufacturing, highlighting the growing disparity between China's industrial strength and the US's financial structure [10][9]. Group 2: Financial Mechanisms and Trade Relationships - The traditional dollar-based financial system is losing its effectiveness, as evidenced by the breakdown of the dollar's closed-loop mechanism in international trade, particularly in transactions between China and countries like Saudi Arabia [12][13]. - The shift towards bilateral and multilateral trade mechanisms is increasing, further weakening the dollar's dominance in global trade [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for China - China must adopt a strategy of greater openness, balance, and market orientation to enhance its economic resilience and global standing [30][39]. - The focus should be on improving domestic consumption and ensuring that economic growth benefits a broader segment of the population, thereby driving internal circulation [41][40]. - Establishing a unified market and eliminating discrimination against the private sector are essential steps for fostering a more competitive economic environment [42]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market dynamics present opportunities for investors to capitalize on China's core assets, particularly in the context of ongoing strategic competition with the US [63][64]. - The newly established CSI A500 index is seen as a representation of China's core assets, providing a high potential return for long-term investments [64][65].

《经济学人》杂志称他为 " 投资界的卡珊德拉 " （古希腊神话中的人物，她的故事充满 悲剧与象征意 义 ，在现代语境中常被用来形容那些 " 说了真话却没人相信 " 的人） ，虽然他看空市场，但预测往 往精准。 "现在价值股和成长股的估值差距太大了，处于历史的极端水平；而美国和非美市场之间的差距，也差 不多接近历史极值了。 目前格兰桑已经不再管理 GMO 的资金，但他仍然通过 " 格兰桑家族基金会 " 活跃于投资领域，该基 金会专注于应对气候变化，并将大部分资金投入了绿色风险投资企业。 在这场访谈中，杰里米 · 格兰桑再次展现了他一贯的敏锐和坦率。他并不试图用短期的市场情绪来解 释走势，而是将视角拉长，从历史的经验出发，去揭示泡沫的结构、风险的本质、投资者心理的惯性， 以及如何在极端估值和结构性偏差的市场中保持理性。 他指出，当前的市场迷雾重重，传统估值模型全面失灵。疫情后的财政刺激将大量资金送入散户手中， AI 的兴起又制造出一波 " 超级叙事 " ，而地缘政治与关税冲突则增加了政策不可预测性。这三大变量 叠加，让整个系统变得极度难以判断。 所以你该做的是两件事： 多关注价值股，少碰高估成长股，把重心放在美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13F filing reveals that Warren Buffett has maintained his position in Apple, holding 300 million shares valued at approximately $66.6 billion, which constitutes 25.76% of the total portfolio [1] Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Holdings - In Q1 2025, Buffett sold approximately 48.66 million shares of Bank of America, dropping its ranking to fourth place behind Coca-Cola [2] - Citigroup was completely liquidated, marking the end of a brief holding period that began in mid-2022 [2] - Berkshire has not disclosed one or more holdings in the latest filing, indicating potential new investments, similar to its previous stealth acquisition of Chubb Insurance [2] - Other investment activities included purchases of Sirius XM, Occidental Petroleum, and Verisign, while slightly reducing holdings in DaVita [2] - Significant increases were made in Pool Corp and Constellation Brands, along with additional investments in Domino's Pizza and aerospace manufacturer HEICO [2] Group 2: Buffett's Future Plans - Buffett discussed his decision to step back due to age, stating that he only began to feel old around 90, but he remains in good health [3] - He plans to continue coming to the office daily and will assist when necessary, indicating he is not fully retiring [3] Group 3: Other Investors' Activities - The portfolio managed by Charlie Munger's Daily Journal Corp saw a reduction in holdings of four stocks, including Alibaba, which was cut from 300,000 shares to 195,000 shares [3] - In contrast to Buffett's strategy, investors like Duan Yongping and Li Lu have significantly reduced their Apple holdings, with Duan's portfolio showing a 65% decrease in Apple shares [4]

H&H International Investment （段永平美股持仓主体）披露的最新 13F 文件显示，截至 2025 年 1 季末，组合整体持仓 市值大约 120 亿美元，较去年底的 145 亿美元下降了 16% 左右。 持股结构上也发生了不少变化，如下表所示： | 排名 | 证券名称 | 行业 | 持仓股数 | 持仓市值 | 持仓占比 | 变动情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 苹果(AAPL) | 信息技术 | 34,224,181 | 7,602,217,326 | 63.33% | -16.25% | | 2 | 伯克希尔(BRK.B) | 美盟 | 3,381,300 | 1,800,812,754 | 15.00% | -6.62% | | 3 | 拼多多(PDD) | 消费 | 7,753,900 | 917,674,065 | 7.64% | 7.27% | | ব | 西方石油(OXY) | 能源 | 13,826,100 | 682,456,296 | 5.69% | 1.83% | | ਟ | 阿里巴巴(B ...