前段时间听了云脊资产创始人梁力的一场线下交流，主题绕不开当下最热也最危险的话题之一： AI 的繁荣 与泡沫。 而前天（ 12 月 9 日）橡树资本联合创始人的霍华德 · 马克斯最新备忘录 《 2025年12月：AI泡沫？ 》 （点击阅读 ）， 用了 1.7 万字的雄文来讨论这个命题。 分析洋洋洒洒，而且马克斯是有结论的，他在文末写道：" 没有人能断言这是否为泡沫，因此我建议任何人 都不应孤注一掷，必须认识到若事态恶化，将面临破产风险。但同样地，也不应完全置身事外，以免错失这 一史上重大技术进步所带来的机遇。 适度的仓位，辅以甄选和谨慎，似乎是最佳之道。 " 在读完备忘录、回想那天和梁力的对话之后，会有一种很强烈的感觉：两个人站在完全不同的坐标系里，却 看到了很多类似的风险轮廓与机会逻辑。 他们最重要的共识有三点。 第一， AI 有望成为有史以来最具变革性的技术之一。 第二，真正危险的地方不在技术，而在围绕技术展开过度投资与资本循环。 马克斯反复提醒，历史上的每一轮大技术革命，几乎都伴随着 " 超前且过度 " 的资本开支和杠杆使用，泡 沫往往产生在资产价格和融资结构上，而不是在技术本身上。 梁力则从产业链内部切 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impressive performance of certain funds in the current technology-driven market, highlighting the significant returns achieved by select fund managers who have adapted to changing market conditions and capitalized on emerging trends such as AI and resource sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Several funds have consistently outperformed the market since 2021, with annual returns exceeding 30% and equity ratios above 50% [4]. - Notable funds include: - Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund managed by Miao Weibin, with a total return of 577.17% since inception [5]. - Huashang Yuanheng Mixed A managed by Hu Zhongyuan, achieving a total return of 327.30% [5]. - Huashang Runfeng Mixed A also managed by Hu Zhongyuan, with a total return of 355.76% [5]. - Quantitative strategies have emerged as a standout approach this year, with managers like Wang Ping and Ma Fang achieving over 30% returns [6]. Group 2: Manager Insights - Hu Zhongyuan has successfully transitioned from a bond-focused strategy to a more aggressive equity approach, significantly increasing equity allocations in his funds [12][19]. - His strategy includes maintaining a balanced risk profile by diversifying across low-correlation sectors and adjusting positions based on market conditions [24][28]. - Blue Xiaokang has focused on precious metals and cyclical assets, achieving a total return of 171.48% since taking over the Zhongou Dividend Preferred Fund [41][43]. - His investment thesis is based on macroeconomic trends, particularly the long-term devaluation of the dollar and the demand for upstream assets [44][48]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Ding Jingfei has specialized in resource sectors, achieving a total return of 245.1% with the Huabao Resource Preferred Fund, leveraging the strong beta characteristics of the resource industry [62][63]. - His investment strategy involves analyzing supply-demand dynamics and identifying high-elasticity resource stocks [66][72]. - Ye Yong has been recognized for his expertise in cyclical sectors, achieving a total return of 169.81% with the Wanjia Dual Engine Fund, while also exploring opportunities in technology and manufacturing [79][85]. Group 4: Market Trends - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to market cycles, with managers adjusting their strategies based on macroeconomic indicators and sector performance [88][90]. - The concept of "resource nationalism" is discussed, highlighting its impact on global supply-demand dynamics and resource pricing [91][94].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of business and investment, highlighting that understanding one enhances the comprehension of the other. It advocates for defining one's "circle of competence" and staying within it to make informed investment decisions [5][12][30]. Group 1: Circle of Competence - Warren Buffett stresses the importance of identifying and operating within one's circle of competence, using the example of Mrs. Blumkin, who successfully ran a furniture business by only engaging in areas she understood [9][19][22]. - Many CEOs of large companies often lack experience in capital allocation, leading to poor acquisition decisions when they venture outside their expertise [10][24][25]. - The article suggests that having fewer but more informed investment opportunities can lead to better outcomes, contrasting this with the prevalent culture on Wall Street that encourages frequent trading [11][32][36]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach advocated is to focus on high-quality businesses and to wait patiently for clear opportunities, rather than being swayed by market noise [30][36][60]. - The article discusses the advantages of owning a portion of a great business, like Coca-Cola, rather than seeking to acquire entire companies, which often leads to overpaying in competitive bidding situations [36][39][44]. - It highlights the importance of investing one’s own capital, as seen in Berkshire Hathaway, where management invests a significant portion of their wealth, aligning their interests with those of shareholders [39][40]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article critiques the modern investment theory that equates price volatility with risk, arguing that buying undervalued assets can be safer than overpaying for perceived stability [75][78]. - It points out the challenges of global competition and the risks associated with investing in foreign markets, emphasizing a preference for companies registered in the U.S. [81][83]. - The discussion includes the notion that successful investments often come from understanding the underlying business rather than relying on market trends or speculation [57][60].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the evolving landscape of multi-asset investment strategies, highlighting the importance of dynamic asset allocation and risk management in achieving superior returns in the current market environment [4][21][40]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The interviewee, Zeng Hui, advocates for a shift from static to dynamic asset allocation, focusing on timing and risk control to enhance returns and manage drawdowns effectively [8][10][11]. - Zeng Hui's investment framework is based on a "Tai Chi" philosophy, emphasizing the importance of identifying extreme market conditions (overbought and oversold) rather than adhering strictly to mean reversion [12][55]. - The approach includes enhancing four underlying asset classes, particularly commodities and international assets, which are seen as essential for public FOF (Fund of Funds) investments [13][80]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Zeng Hui manages several funds with notable performance, including the Guotai Youxuan Lihang fund, which achieved a return of 52.59% over the past year, ranking first in its category [4][5]. - The Guotai Ruiyue fund, focusing on bonds, reported a return of 4.98%, ranking second in its category, showcasing the effectiveness of Zeng Hui's investment strategies [4][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article discusses the significant changes in the FOF industry, driven by the rise of quantitative strategies and ETFs, which are reshaping traditional investment models [21][22][35]. - Zeng Hui predicts that the future of public FOF will involve a more integrated approach, reducing the layers of management and focusing on dynamic asset allocation to improve investment efficiency [21][35]. - The article highlights the anticipated performance of various asset classes in the coming year, with commodities expected to outperform equities and bonds, particularly gold and silver [99][100][106]. Group 4: Risk Management - Zeng Hui emphasizes the critical role of macro risk management, identifying it as the most significant risk factor in investment, accounting for 40% of the overall risk framework [41][46]. - The investment strategy incorporates a quantitative system to enforce discipline and mitigate human biases, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols [92][97]. - The article outlines the necessity of a robust macroeconomic model that integrates various factors, including fundamental, policy, liquidity, and market sentiment, to guide investment decisions [42][43][46].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected departure of Todd Combs from Berkshire Hathaway marks a significant transition in the company's leadership, particularly in its insurance sector, where he has made notable contributions to GEICO's turnaround and operational efficiency [4][5][6]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Todd Combs has resigned from Berkshire Hathaway to join JPMorgan Chase as a special advisor to CEO Jamie Dimon, after serving as CEO of GEICO since 2020 [5][7]. - Combs' departure was announced in a press release on December 8, which also included other leadership appointments within Berkshire's non-insurance and insurance businesses [4][6]. Group 2: Contributions to GEICO - Under Combs' leadership, GEICO experienced significant profitability growth and operational reforms, which were highlighted in Warren Buffett's shareholder letter earlier this year [6]. - Buffett praised Combs for his efforts in revitalizing GEICO, referring to it as a "gem" that required polishing, and noted the impressive progress expected in 2024 [6]. Group 3: Future Plans at JPMorgan Chase - At JPMorgan, Combs will initially manage a $10 billion investment plan, which is expected to grow to $1.5 trillion aimed at promoting economic growth and enhancing safety [7]. - The investment plan will include an external advisory committee featuring prominent figures such as Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell [8]. Group 4: Combs' Background and Philosophy - Todd Combs joined Berkshire Hathaway in 2010 and has been recognized for his investment acumen and leadership qualities, having been a protégé of both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [5][6][36]. - His investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of curiosity and perseverance, which he believes are essential for long-term success in investing [10].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension has led to a significant drop in bond prices, marking the first time in its history that such an extension has occurred, raising concerns about the company's financial stability and creditworthiness [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - Vanke's bond "22 Vanke MTN004," with a face value of 3% and a scale of 2 billion, has had its principal and interest payments postponed by one year, causing a collective plunge in Vanke's bonds [3]. - Following the announcement, several Vanke bonds experienced a single-day drop exceeding 20%, triggering temporary trading suspensions, with prices plummeting from around 90 yuan to approximately 20 yuan [4]. - Standard & Poor's downgraded Vanke's credit rating from "BB+" to "CCC-" due to the company's rising debt, which stood at approximately 320 billion yuan as of Q3 2023, alongside pressures from declining profits [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors initially perceived Vanke's bonds as stable investments but were suddenly confronted with the complexities of real estate cycles, local finances, policy directions, and credit support structures [5]. - The situation reflects a broader theme discussed by investor Howard Marks, highlighting the disconnect between perceived safety and actual risk in the market [5][6]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a shaky optimism, with investors feeling compelled to remain in the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - In the context of private credit markets, Marks emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous credit standards amidst a trend of lowered investment criteria by others [33][34]. - The discussion includes the potential for high-yield bonds and private credit to outperform cash, with current liquidity credit yields around 7%, though net returns may be lower after accounting for management fees and default risks [19][27]. - Marks warns that the increasing number of active private credit managers may limit the potential for excess returns, suggesting that the market is becoming more efficient [31][32].

本周值得看： 上周从宝藏库里面精译整理了一篇大部头，是Baillie Gifford传奇基金经理詹姆斯·安德森在2019年亲笔 撰写的一篇雄文——《格雷厄姆还是增长？》（Graham or Growth?） 1.8万字，看得酣畅淋漓。希望你跟我一样很喜欢。 点击阅读： 1.8万字｜柏基"传奇基金经理"詹姆斯·安德森2019年深度撰文：如何看待高成长与经典价值 还有一篇反响很好的转载文，缘起于两位投资圈的好友不约而同分享了风和基金创始人胡猛在北大价值 投资课堂上的交流。 1、 下阶段A股主要矛盾是基本面！中泰资管姜诚近期交流：知识要挑难的学，投资决策要挑简单的做 2、 明年投资要降低预期！景林高云程最新交流回答12个高关注问题 3、 中国资产已重回全球投资者布局的舞台中心！大摩邢自强最新发声：2026年的政策基调大概率还是渐 进、温和的 4、 公募量化都在说的AI赋能，如何能真正穿越周期获取超额？ 5、 港股证券怎么又热了？ 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀 ...

4、中国最强AI模型和公有云业务。在AI时代，想用AI，大部分企业必须用公有云； "像 2025年这样比较容易赚钱的年份不会太多，所以明年我觉得要降低预期。" "我的大概率判断是，中国会保持非常宽松的货币环境和流动性水平，这让股票市场中的优质公司的估值是比较稳定的。" "在做投资时，要把核心要素的权重放的足够大，就是买对好公司。剩下的都是次要条件、次要因素，权重很低。" "（产业板块的机会）未来半年到一年，在新能源（尤其是储能）和人工智能的应用（不管是软件还是与硬件结合）可能会出现一些机会。" 景林 资产管理合伙人、总经理高云程 ，近日在客户交流中回答了12个关注度很高的问题。 今年初高云程提出"MCGF"的投资线索，即"Make China Greater Future"。在半年度致持有人信中，他具象了这些线索的聚焦领域，主要包括： 1、大众娱乐社交平台，正在朝AIagent快速迭代； 2、无论谁设计最先进的芯片，都需要请他来做，具备强定价权； 3、在美元长期趋势出现动摇的情况下，拥有稀缺金铜资源的企业； 5、运动，户外生活方式的品牌矩阵经营集团。公司的供应链和品牌运营能力在持续提升，肉眼可见的和对手拉开了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how AI empowerment in public quantitative funds can effectively navigate market cycles to achieve excess returns [2] Group 1: AI Empowerment in Quantitative Funds - AI technology is increasingly being integrated into public quantitative funds, enhancing their ability to analyze data and make investment decisions [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting AI strategies to different market conditions to maintain performance [2] - Historical data shows that funds utilizing AI have outperformed traditional investment strategies during volatile periods [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - Recent trends indicate a growing interest in AI-driven investment solutions, with significant capital inflows into these funds [2] - The performance metrics of AI-enabled funds demonstrate a consistent increase in returns, with some funds reporting up to a 20% higher return compared to their non-AI counterparts [2] - The article highlights the necessity for continuous innovation in AI algorithms to keep pace with changing market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - Value investment is not limited to stocks; any asset that generates cash returns can be evaluated using value investment principles [12][18]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contradiction in the A-share market is the fundamentals, requiring attention to both short-term and long-term developments [18][20]. - The worst situation for A-share fundamentals has already passed, with the lowest point occurring in the second half of last year [19]. - Current A-share market valuation is not the primary issue, as the absolute level of valuation has not changed significantly despite fluctuations in stock prices [19][20]. Group 2: Investment Performance - The performance of investment products managed by Jiang Cheng has been relatively flat this year, with a year-to-date return of 8.15% for the Zhongtai Xingyuan fund [4][5]. - Despite a challenging third quarter, the cumulative returns of Jiang Cheng's products remain robust, with the Zhongtai Xingyuan fund still showing positive absolute returns [7][8]. Group 3: Sector Insights - In the banking sector, while profit growth is modest, the improvement in net interest margins is noteworthy, with most banks showing a halt in the decline of their margins [20][21]. - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with a focus on the profitability of land acquired by major developers, which currently shows optimistic profit margins [23][30]. Group 4: AI Investment Perspective - A significant amount of research has been dedicated to artificial intelligence, with 95% of recent efforts focused on this area [10][25]. - The current market conditions for AI-related investments are uncertain, with concerns about whether the high valuations are justified [25][26]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - The essence of value assessment is the present value of future cash returns, emphasizing the importance of sustainable competitive advantages and business models [13][15]. - Avoiding mistakes is prioritized over seeking correctness in investment decisions, highlighting a cautious approach to risk management [17][18].