其他值得看 他谈到了价值投资的恒久原则，还谈到对外贸易、特朗普、比亚迪、马斯克……充满了普世的胸怀和理 性开放的心态，也有令人叫绝的精准预见。 点击阅读： 芒格谈价值投资、比亚迪、特朗普和马斯克，超精彩的21分钟（2019年） 本周 推荐阅读 1、 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德，而是长期 成功的核心…… 2019年2月14日，查理·芒格在每日期刊年度股东会结束后，接受了雅虎财经主编安迪·瑟沃（Andy Serwer）的简短采访。 2、 最近卖光美股！82岁吉姆·罗杰斯：我现在坐拥大量现金，策略上和巴菲特完全一样 时隔6年回头看这场针对时事话题的访谈，芒格总能用他标志性的机智与智慧，将讨论带回那些超越时 间的洞见。 太值得回味了！enjoy it～～ 4、 稳健工具箱里的自由现金流和红利，究竟该如何选择？ 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信cong ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Charlie Munger's views on the future of BYD in the hybrid and electric vehicle sectors, predicting it will be a major winner [22] - Munger emphasizes the importance of value investing, stating that all wise investments are essentially value investments [60][64] - He highlights the competitive nature of the automotive market in the U.S. and the challenges for new entrants, particularly from China [19][20] Group 2 - Munger expresses a positive outlook on the trade relationship between the U.S. and China, welcoming the trade deficit as beneficial for China's development [10][12] - He acknowledges that China has advantages in certain fields compared to the U.S., which is a natural occurrence in global trade dynamics [13][16] - Munger reflects on the historical context of trade and competition, using the example of Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Dexter Shoe to illustrate the impact of globalization [14][15] Group 3 - The article mentions that BYD has stopped producing gasoline-powered vehicles and is focusing on electric and hybrid cars, with significant sales growth in 2023 [23] - Munger believes that BYD's strength lies in its battery technology, positioning it well for future success in the electric vehicle market [21] - The discussion includes the competitive landscape of electric vehicles, with Tesla being recognized for its significant achievements [24]

首批浮动费率基金上线了。 从 5 月 7 日证监会《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》的正式落地，到 5 月 23 日 26 支新型浮动费率基金 的密集获批，再到紧锣密鼓的正式开售 —— 象征着行业转型的历史性时刻，猝不及防地降临，又笃定不移地向 前推进。 此次获批的浮动费率基金，业绩比较基准均主要对标沪深 300 、中证 A500 等 主流宽基指数 。管理费方面， 则均采取 分档费率机制 ：在持有期超过一年的情况下，相对于业绩比较基准，如果持有期 年化超额收益超过 6% 且为正值 ，则收取 1.50%/ 年 的管理费；若 年化超额收益小于 -3% ，则仅收取 0.60%/ 年 的管理费； 其余情况下，均收取 1.20%/ 年 的管理费。持有期 不足 一年 的，收取 1.20%/ 年的固定管理费。 当管理人收益与长期业绩深度绑定，什么样的基金经理才能胜任？根据浮动费率基金的特征， 我们 试图描绘了 一下 ta 的画像： 首先， ta 要有可持续的超额收益创造能力 ， 过往 表现靠前的长期业绩 能证明自己 ； 其次， ta 的能力圈最好全面一些， 不要只锚定一个行业或赛道，尽量做到全市场选股； 另外， ta 还要 ...

巴菲特曾称自己是" 85% 的格雷厄姆 +15% 的费雪"，后在 1995 年股东大会上，称自己是" 100% 的格雷厄姆 +100% 的费雪"。 随后，他继续在清华微电子所攻读 EDA 计算机辅助设计的博士，师从第一代中国 EDA 系统的参与人之一，并在毕业后较早进入到金融行业——李涛 2008 年就进入公募基金行业，是 全市场上第一批 TMT （包含电子、计算机、通讯、传媒等）买方研究员。 1999 年，也就是互联网元年后的第 4 年，李涛被清华电子工程系电子科学与技术专业录取，正式开启他的信息技术的" 学研投 "之路，至今已 26 年。 见证中国新兴产业的飞跃 "人类的每一代都会比上一代更加数字化。"这是美国优秀未来学家尼葛洛庞蒂，在其著作《数字化生存》中表达的一个很重要的观点。 30 年前，尼葛洛庞蒂生动形象地勾勒了比特（ bits ）取代原子（ atoms ）的未来图景。恰好， 1995 年又是中国互联网的元年，这一年 1 月，北京、上海 开通了两个接入 Internet 的节点，信息超级高速公路时代飞驰而来。 作为中国迈入信息时代之际影响最大的经典读物之一，《数字化生存》也影响了一批优秀的科技投资 ...

他评价罗杰斯的投资方法， "研究，研究，还是研究。他总是在寻找重大结构性变化，他的工作方式就 是不断挖掘信息，验证数据 。" "我最近卖掉了所有的美国股票，因为我知道，我以前见过这样的派对场景。再说一遍：我很担心。" 久违的吉姆 · 罗杰斯（ Jim Rogers ）近日在一档播客对话中，跟 Bloor Street Capital 首席执行官詹 姆斯 · 康纳（ James Connor ）进行了一场非常松弛的交流。 罗杰斯是量子基金联合创始人，与索罗斯共同打造了历史上最耀眼的对冲基金之一。 他是骑摩托环游世界的冒险家，用脚步丈量投资机会，被誉为 " 世界投资漫游者 " ；他也是最早大举押 注中国市场的外国投资者之一， 1999 年在上交所开立 B 股账户，以每股 20 美分的低价大量买入中国 股票。 美国财政部长斯科特 · 贝森特（ Scott Bessent ）在耶鲁大学读书期间跟罗杰斯就有过交集，为他的家 族办公室做分析助理。 贝森特说，罗杰斯对他影响深远。（ 点击阅读： 《贝森特上任美国财长前的深度对话：长期关系才是 最重要的 …… 》 ） 如今已 82 岁的罗杰斯，为了让子女熟悉中文环境，定居在新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford, a legendary asset management company, has successfully identified and invested in disruptive growth stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and SpaceX, positioning itself as a leader in long-term growth investment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Baillie Gifford was established in 1908 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, known for its long-term investment strategies [1]. - The flagship product, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT), is regarded as a benchmark for ultra-long-term investments [2]. - SMT currently manages approximately £13.3 billion in assets, with a net return of about 13% over the past year, a cumulative loss of around 30% over the last three years, and an annualized return of about 12% over the past decade [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Portfolio - SMT's recent key holdings include publicly traded companies such as MercadoLibre (5.9%), Amazon (5.6%), and Meta (4.7%), as well as private companies like SpaceX (valued at approximately £1.071 billion) and ByteDance (approximately £566 million) [3]. - The current management team, led by Tom Slater and Lawrence Burns, emphasizes resilience as a core virtue for long-term success in unpredictable environments [4][22]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Company Performance - The past year has seen significant challenges, including high interest rates and geopolitical volatility, yet many invested companies have shown impressive operational performance [7]. - Companies have adapted by reducing expansion rates and refocusing on core strengths, leading to improved profit margins and accelerated free cash flow [10][11]. Group 4: AI and Technological Advancements - The rise of generative AI has had a profound impact, particularly in software engineering, leading to significant productivity gains [12][13]. - Companies like Meta and Spotify have successfully integrated AI into their operations, enhancing efficiency and revenue growth [19][20]. Group 5: Global Investment Perspective - SMT has leveraged its global investment mandate, focusing on companies like MercadoLibre, which has shown strong performance despite macroeconomic challenges in Latin America [36]. - The investment in Nubank, a leading independent digital bank outside China, highlights the potential for growth in emerging markets [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Emerging Opportunities - Baillie Gifford is actively seeking the next generation of winners, with investments in companies like SpaceX and Aurora Innovation, which are poised to reshape their respective industries [47][50]. - The company remains committed to identifying transformative opportunities and supporting innovative firms that can deliver substantial long-term returns [57].

从美国的角度看，这引发了长期的贸易失衡、资本流入和地缘政治摩擦。加征关税、推行减税、扩大赤 字，这些美国的政策手段，不只是中美之间的博弈，更是全球资金流动、资产配置、宏观平衡中的一部 分。 " 中国在积累海外出口创汇资产时，并不一定完全流入美国国债市场，部分资金可能会逐步转向非美资 产类别，比如黄金、加密货币、欧洲债券以及中国的离岸市场（例如港股）。 " 5 月 24 日，华福国际 CEO 兼首席全球资产配置官洪 灏在中国宏观经济论坛上，围绕 " 如何从国际宏观 看中国消费 " 这个主题，深入拆解了为何多年来提振消费占比的效果始终有限。 他指出，这个问题并不是单纯靠调整国内投资和消费比例就能解决的，而是要放到更大的全球格局中去 理解。 在洪 灏看来，中国的高储蓄、高投资最终形成了巨大的产能，而这些产能主要依赖出口消化，从而带来庞 大的贸易顺差。这些顺差必须通过资本账户流出，转化为对外投资、海外资产，进入全球资本流动的大循 环。 洪 灏也提醒，如果中国要真正通过结构性改革确立消费的主导地位，这必然是一场长期而艰巨的工程。虽 然目前已经出台了一些政策、尝试优化消费结构，但要根本扭转消费与投资之间的失衡，仍有赖于更 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will not take the main stage at the upcoming shareholder meeting, as confirmed by his daughter Susan, indicating a shift in leadership dynamics at Berkshire Hathaway [1] Group 1: Shareholder Meeting Arrangements - Susan Buffett mentioned that if health permits, Warren Buffett will sit in the front row with other board members and executives during the next shareholder meeting [1] - Greg Abel revealed that the announcement regarding the shareholder meeting's new arrangements was made due to numerous inquiries from suppliers and stakeholders about the future direction of the meeting [1] - The 2026 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 2, with a Q&A session planned for that morning, and further details will be released in early next year alongside the annual report [1] Group 2: Emotional Impact - Susan noted that many attendees were emotional during Warren Buffett's last address at the shareholder meeting, highlighting the memorable atmosphere of the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - The best way to invest in AI for sovereign funds and large capital allocators is to invest in AI infrastructure, such as data centers, energy, electricity, and network connectivity [1][72]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Long-term investors should ignore short-term market noise and focus on identifying global opportunities where the market misjudges risk [7][8]. - Successful investment requires a clear long-term strategy, a rigorous execution process, a capable team, and the courage to make decisive choices when opportunities arise [7][8]. - Risk awareness and understanding what is suitable for the institution are more important than merely pursuing maximum returns [18][22]. Group 2: Private Equity Challenges - The private equity industry has accumulated significant issues over the past few years, including valuation expansion, leverage use, and exit bottlenecks, which are now becoming real pressures [3][50]. - There are three core issues in private equity: weak due diligence, lack of exit options, and "scale drift" where fund sizes grow without a corresponding increase in target investments [51][52]. - Approximately $3 trillion in private equity portfolio companies have not exited, and many are approaching the end of their fund lifecycle, creating a perfect storm for the industry [54][60]. Group 3: U.S. Market Position - Reducing exposure to the U.S. market requires careful consideration of the consequences, as the U.S. still has the largest fixed income, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and credit markets [27][31]. - The U.S. remains an attractive investment destination due to its vibrant economy, respect for free markets, and strong capital markets [34][35]. Group 4: Public vs. Private Markets - In public markets, the biggest risk comes from index investing, where the top five stocks in the S&P 500 now account for nearly 30% of the index, creating a concentration risk [42][43]. - Active management is making a comeback as investors seek to avoid risks associated with concentrated positions in public markets [46]. - In private markets, the current environment is challenging, with many funds struggling to exit investments, leading to a focus on secondary markets as a potential solution [62]. Group 5: AI Investment Strategies - Investing in AI should focus on infrastructure enablers rather than direct investments in AI companies, as the latter may carry higher risks [72][73]. - A smart investment approach in AI infrastructure could involve structured deals that resemble debt investments, providing stable returns with lower risk [76][77]. Group 6: Learning from Mistakes - Acknowledging and learning from mistakes is crucial for investment success, emphasizing the importance of refining processes rather than relying on luck [83][84]. - Good investment decisions often involve patience and the choice to refrain from acting in uncertain situations [86].

一方面，我国正迈入"低利率"时代，票息利率呈下行趋势，信用利差逐渐收窄， 纯债基金的收益空间 被逐渐压缩 ；另一方面，关税冲突与地缘风险频发，全球政策博弈深化，政策预期与基本面现实间的 反复权衡下， 股票市场的波动也被放大…… 当暴走的黄金开始下跌，当象征着稳定的债券开始"碎蛋"，当 A 股市场在不同题材与板块之间的切换 愈发频繁 —— 市场正在用最直白的例子告诉我们： 押注单一资产不可能实现"一劳永逸"的长期回报， 资产配置才是在不确定性中力求成长的解题思路。 而历史数据也能证明这一点。 当前， 普通投资者的投资难度正在加大： 这是几种基金指数在近 5 年间的走势对比。其中，偏债混合基金指数象征了股债兼备的 " 固收 +" 类 基金，不难看出，它不像股票型基金指数一样大开大合，也比纯债基金指数更有收益弹性。 凭借资产 配置，"固收 + "基金 在相对可接受的波动范围内收获了比纯债配置更高的收益 ， 展现出兼具低波和 成长的特性。 数据来源： Wind ， 2020.5.19-2025.5.18 。 然而，并非所有"固收 + "都能兑现关于" + "的承诺。"资产配置需要科学的框架而不是简单的股债拼 盘， 真 ...