市场早盘高开后震荡回落，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市半日成交额9658亿，较上个交易日放量1165亿。 板块方面，军工、脑机接口、房地产、化学原料等板块涨幅居前，影视、游戏、英伟达概念、生物制品等板块跌幅居前 值得关注的是，近期港元汇率多次触发强 方兑换保证，截至5月6日， 香港金管局累计注资达1166.14亿港元，随着港币的汇率抬升，港股资产也会 走强。 近日热度较高的恒生科技 指数 ETF （513180）交投高度活跃； 作为恒生科技赛道中规模最大的ETF，盘中成交额超越跟踪同指数的其余 ETF。截至5月6日，该ETF标的指数近1年累计涨幅高达30.73%，近3年年化波动率超40%。 01 降准降息来了！一揽子十大金融政策支持 1、降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，降准后，整体存款准备金率平均水平将从原来的6.6%降低到 6.2%。 2、降低政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场七天期逆回购利率从目前的1.5%降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0.1个百分 点。 上午盘面上热点快速轮动，个股涨多跌少，全市场超3400只个股上涨。 3、下调结构性货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett expresses a long-term commitment to investing in Japanese trading companies, aiming to hold their stocks for at least 50 years, regardless of short-term market fluctuations [1][2] Investment Decision and Sentiment - Buffett's interest in Japan's five major trading companies began six years ago when their stock prices were perceived as undervalued. He appreciates their strong operational history and the unique cultural aspects of these companies [1] - The performance of major companies like Apple, American Express, and Coca-Cola in Japan further reinforces Buffett's positive sentiment towards Japanese enterprises [1] Investment Situation - As of the end of 2024, Berkshire Hathaway's total investment in Japan's five major trading companies amounted to $13.8 billion, with a market value of $23.5 billion. Expected dividend income from these investments in 2025 is approximately $812 million, while interest costs on yen-denominated debt are around $135 million [1] - Berkshire has invested about $20 billion in the Japanese market, with aspirations to increase this to $100 billion [1] Market Valuation Insights - The current valuation metrics for the Nikkei 225 index indicate a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.52, placing it in the 34.82 percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.74, in the 46.17 percentile. The dividend yield stands at 1.94%, in the 70.30 percentile, suggesting that the index is not overly expensive [2] Fund Investment Options - Several QDII passive index funds are available for investing in Japan, managed by companies such as Huaxia Fund, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, and E Fund. The largest fund by scale is the Nikkei 225 ETF [4][5] Economic and Market Dynamics - Japan's economic recovery is supported by rising wages, with a 5.28% increase in the latest salary negotiations, which is expected to bolster domestic inflation [7][21] - The Bank of Japan's decision to abandon negative interest rates marks a significant step towards normalizing monetary policy, although the market remains cautious about potential risks [8][21] - The Japanese stock market is anticipated to benefit from ongoing governance reforms and increased shareholder returns, including stock buybacks [22][23] Short-term and Long-term Factors - Key short-term factors to monitor include actual wage growth, adjustments in corporate earnings guidance, and the progress of governance reforms [22] - Long-term factors supporting the Japanese stock market include the end of deflation, rising global investor interest, and ongoing corporate governance improvements [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamic balance of stock-bond portfolios, emphasizing its psychological benefits for investors, particularly in maintaining a sense of control during market fluctuations [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding Control in Investment - Control is a crucial psychological concept that refers to an individual's belief in their ability to influence their environment, which is essential for emotional stability and overall well-being [4]. - There are two types of control: primary control, which involves direct actions to change external circumstances, and secondary control, which involves adjusting one's mindset to adapt to reality [5][6]. Group 2: Impact of Stock-Bond Balance on Investor Psychology - Investors often feel helpless during market downturns, especially when fully invested in stocks, leading to irrational decisions like panic selling [7]. - A balanced stock-bond portfolio allows investors to take proactive measures, such as selling bonds to buy stocks at lower prices, thus restoring a sense of control [12]. Group 3: Mechanisms of Stock-Bond Balance - A typical stock-bond portfolio, such as the "60/40" strategy, involves allocating 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, providing both growth potential and stability [8]. - Dynamic rebalancing is necessary when market fluctuations cause the actual asset allocation to deviate from the target, allowing investors to maintain their desired risk profile [9][10]. Group 4: Psychological Advantages of Stock-Bond Balance - The stock-bond balance strategy provides a structured approach to investing, reducing anxiety by allowing investors to act according to predetermined rules [18]. - The inherent lower volatility of a stock-bond portfolio compared to a 100% stock investment leads to a more comfortable holding experience, which is crucial for long-term investment success [19]. Group 5: Practical Suggestions for Implementing Stock-Bond Balance - Investors should establish clear rebalancing rules, such as specific thresholds for asset allocation deviations, to maintain control over their investment strategy [20]. - Documenting investment plans and rebalancing actions can enhance the sense of control and organization, contributing to long-term investment confidence [21]. - Setting an appropriate stock-bond ratio based on individual risk tolerance is essential for achieving a balanced and sustainable investment approach [22].

节后首个交易日，A股全线大涨。 沪指涨1%重回3300点，创指收涨近2%。个股呈普涨态势，上涨个股超4900只。截至收盘，沪指报3316.11点，涨1.13%；深成指报10082.34点，涨 1.84%；创指报1986.41点，涨1.97%。 盘面上，金属新材料、可控核聚变、稀土永磁板块涨幅居前，银行板块跌幅居前。 沪深两市成交额达到13362亿，较上个交易日放量1668亿。 01 今日缘何大涨 今日大涨原因在哪？简单来说是多重利好共振：人民币升值吸引外资、贸易摩擦缓和、消费数据验证内需韧性。 | 沪深已收盘 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | 3316.11 | 10082.34 | 1986.41 | | +1.13% | +1.84% | +1.97% | 5月5日，离岸人民币对美元汇率持续走高，盘中升穿7.19关口，一度上涨超200基点，最高升值至7.189，为2024年11月以来首次。 有研究员表示，近期离岸人民币对美元持续走高的原因主要在于降息预期升温，美元指数下探。同时，中美关税战缓和的信号释放，激活了市场的 乐观情绪。政治局会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a misinterpretation of Warren Buffett's statement regarding investment strategies, emphasizing that the key to his success is not the pursuit of being fully invested at all times, but rather the ability to hold cash for better opportunities [1][2][17]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's original statement indicates that making money is linked to not wanting to be fully invested at all times, which is different from the notion of "never being fully invested" [6][8]. - The focus should be on identifying high-return assets rather than maintaining a constant investment level; holding cash is a means to an end, not an end in itself [9][19]. - The investment strategy relies on recognizing and seizing rare opportunities rather than expecting consistent returns from frequent investments [14][19]. Group 2: Current Cash Reserves - Berkshire Hathaway currently holds over $300 billion in cash and short-term investments, representing about 27% of total assets, significantly higher than the historical average of 13% [11]. - The high cash reserves are a practical consideration, allowing for potential large acquisitions when suitable opportunities arise [13][19]. - Buffett emphasizes that the decision to hold cash is not a strategy to make future leadership look better but is based on real market conditions and opportunities [12][19]. Group 3: Market Timing and Opportunities - Investment opportunities do not appear in a predictable manner; they are sporadic and require patience to capitalize on [14][19]. - The article highlights that while the market generally trends upward over the long term, predicting short-term movements is impossible [19][20]. - Holding cash allows for readiness to act when valuable opportunities present themselves, which is crucial for long-term investment success [19][20].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：坚信价值 来源：雪球 不出所料 ， 今天新闻的标题都在说伯克希尔的现金储量 （ 包括现金和短债 ） 创历史新高 。 然而 ， 正如之前解释过的 ： （ 1 ） 对于一家1.1万亿美元规模的公司来说 ， " 千亿 " 不一定是惊人数字 ， 要看比例才有 意义 。 （ 2 ） 巴菲特的弹药 ， 除了现金还有国债 ， 而且不止是短债 。 过去十几年 ， 现金和短债的比例上升 ， 主要来自于降低对长债的配置 ， 而不是挤压了对权益 资产的配置 。 固收比例的上升 ， 是最近一年多才发生的 。 （ 3 ） 非上市的权益资产 ， 已经成为他权益资产的主体 。 光看对苹果的减持或者上市股票持 仓市值的下降 ， 并不全面 。 （ 4 ） 从过去的历史看 ， 伯克希尔的超额回报主要来自于长期持有高质量公司+1.7倍左右的杠 杠 。 虽然倾向于个股便宜时买入 ， 但是对市场总体进行 " 择时 " ， 并看不出来有刻意为之 。 见下图 ， 我整理了过去三十年伯克希尔固收资产占会计净资产的比例变化情况 （ 数据点为年底 固收资产包括长债+短债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of gold-related funds, emphasizing the potential for gold as a long-term investment due to macroeconomic uncertainties and central bank purchasing trends [1][4]. Fund Overview - There are 36 gold-related funds in the market, with 19 remaining after filtering for RMB A-class shares [1][2]. - The funds are ranked by their combined scale, management fees, and custody fees, with some funds having lower fees, such as those from Huaxia and ICBC, which have a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [2][3]. Fund Manager Insights - **Huaan Fund (Xu Zhiyan)**: Optimistic about gold's long-term value due to ongoing monetary easing and central bank purchases, with gold prices rising significantly in early 2025 [6][9][13]. - **Bosera Fund (Zhao Yunyang)**: Highlights the continued purchasing power of central banks and the potential for market adjustments due to U.S. debt ceiling issues, maintaining a positive outlook on gold [19][21][22]. - **E Fund (Bao Jie)**: Notes that gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on the changing pricing framework for gold [32][34][35]. - **Guotai Fund (Ai Xiaojun)**: Emphasizes the importance of central bank purchases and geopolitical risks in supporting gold prices, while acknowledging potential risks from U.S. dollar fluctuations [39][40][41]. - **Hua Xia Fund (Rong Ying)**: Continues to see gold as a valuable asset, driven by central bank demand and geopolitical tensions, with a strong performance in early 2025 [49][51]. - **ICBC Credit Suisse Fund (Zhao Xu)**: Points out the influence of U.S. monetary policy and global uncertainties on gold prices, with a focus on the ongoing central bank purchases [53]. - **Jianxin Fund (Zhu Jinyu)**: Believes that U.S. inflation trends and geopolitical uncertainties will support gold prices, with a positive outlook for 2025 [55]. - **Noan Fund (Song Qing)**: Maintains a positive view on gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, with a significant increase in gold prices in early 2025 [57][59]. - **Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund (Liang Pusen)**: Discusses the impact of U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks on gold prices, emphasizing the importance of gold in asset allocation [63][64]. Market Trends - Gold prices have shown strong performance, with a significant increase in early 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and central bank purchases [13][14][22][78]. - The article highlights the ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold, with 2024 seeing over 1000 tons of net purchases, maintaining high demand for gold as a long-term value storage tool [15][60]. - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are expected to continue supporting gold as a safe-haven asset, with potential for further price increases [27][39][70].

有人问我买老窖的初心 ， 我做了回答 。 后来想了想 ， 其实当初还是看中老窖独一无二的生意 ， 可以产生源源不断的现金流 。 低价和70%分红只是这份生意的附属品 。 股价大涨时是这个 原因 ， 股价大跌时依旧是这个原因 ， 是为不忘初心 。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：酒金岁月 来源：雪球 主账户长电和移动也是同样的理由 ， 只有基本面变坏的情况下才考虑卖出 。 在这样的背景下 ， 只有股息是唯一收益 ， 股价涨跌丝毫不影响 。 这里没有差价收入 ， 也不考虑差价收入 ， 就是纯粹的价值投资 ， 差价的事情交给小账户处理 。 美股市场优秀企业已经充分定价 ， 股价大跌是机会完全是常识 ， 巴菲特本特都占不到太多便宜 ， 何况是我们这种普通人 。 A股市场不需要你优秀 ， 只需要你合格 ， 有正常认知就可以了 ， 这是A股流动性溢价来源 。 在这样的市场 ， 你可以依靠常识和逻辑降维打击 ， 想亏钱都难 。 别人的恐惧和成见其实就是你超额财富的来源 ， 让他们继续保持这种状态才能让你利益最大化 ， 天天怼人是傻子才干的事情 ， 万一把人怼明白了 ...

5月5日，离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次， 两个交易日最大涨幅接 近900点。A50表现也比较活跃，近两个交易日涨超1%。 此外， 随着离岸人民币走强，港股在节日期间也表现强势，香港恒生指数在5月2日反弹1.74% 报22504.68点。并且时隔五年， 香港金融管理局 从市场买入美元、沽出总值465.39亿港元来 维持汇率稳定。 雪球App用户@ 玄灵仙门 ：说明外资疯狂涌入避险了，利好港股和A股，港元都不够用了，说明 外资疯狂流入。 一起来看最新情况。 01 人民币大涨，到底发生了什么？ 贝森特： 美联储应该降息了 海外机构"抢跑"降息交易 当地时间周五公布的非农就业数据强劲，让高盛和巴克莱两大金融机构做出预期：美联储下次降 息可能至少要等到7月。 但市场依然认为，美联储年内降息次数仍将达到3~4次。市场分析认为， 就业增长速度，以及周 四公布的制造业报告不像预期那样悲观，这促使交易员减少了降息预期。此前，由于特朗普的贸 易战在金融市场引发混乱，引发了对美国经济衰退的担忧，降息预期不断升温。 美国财政部部长贝森特也向媒体表示："我们看到两年期美债收益率现在低于联邦基金利率。所 以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the Q1 performance of three banks (China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, and Industrial Bank) from five perspectives: asset quality, liability structure and interest rate, asset structure and yield, profitability, and valuation and margin of safety [1]. Asset Quality - The focus is primarily on loan quality, with detailed statistics provided for each bank's normal, attention, and non-performing loans [2][3][4][5]. - China Merchants Bank has a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, while Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank have ratios of 1.06% and 1.08%, respectively, indicating that China Merchants Bank maintains better asset quality [3][4][6]. - The 90-day delinquency rate is lowest for Ping An Bank (0.68%), followed by China Merchants Bank (0.73%) and Industrial Bank (0.92%), suggesting that Ping An Bank has the most robust asset quality [8]. - The attention loan ratio is lowest for China Merchants Bank (1.36%), while Ping An Bank's ratio has decreased by 15 basis points, indicating an improvement in asset quality [9][10]. - The unified caliber non-performing loan ratio shows Ping An Bank at 1.35%, China Merchants Bank at 1.46%, and Industrial Bank at 1.83%, further confirming Ping An Bank's stronger asset quality [11]. Liability Structure and Interest Rate - China Merchants Bank has a significantly lower average interest rate on deposits (1.29%) compared to Ping An Bank (1.81%) and Industrial Bank (1.79%), indicating a substantial cost advantage [20][21][26]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities' interest rate for China Merchants Bank is also lower than that of its peers, reinforcing its competitive edge in funding costs [22][26]. Asset Structure and Yield - Ping An Bank's yield on interest-earning assets is 3.61%, which is higher than China Merchants Bank's 3.23% and Industrial Bank's 3.49%, indicating better asset yield management [33]. - The article notes that Ping An Bank's retail loan yield has shown positive growth, although the reasons remain unclear due to lack of disclosure from competitors [27][33]. Profitability - In Q1 2025, the net interest margin for Ping An Bank is 1.83%, China Merchants Bank is 1.91%, and Industrial Bank is 1.80%, with Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank benefiting from a faster decline in funding costs [37]. - The total assets and liabilities of Ping An Bank have not expanded significantly, but its deposit growth is strong, indicating a stable liability structure [35]. - China Merchants Bank shows synchronized growth in total assets and liabilities, reflecting a robust performance [36]. Valuation and Margin of Safety - The article does not provide specific details on valuation metrics or margin of safety for the banks, focusing instead on the operational performance indicators discussed above.