Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the downfall of Curtis Faith, the author of the "Turtle Trading Rules," highlighting the contrast between his past success as a trader and his current state of bankruptcy and homelessness, emphasizing the unpredictability of life and the importance of discipline in trading [3][4][18]. Group 1: Turtle Trading Rules - The Turtle Trading Rules, developed in the 1980s by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, is a well-known mechanical trading system that proved trading can be taught [5][6]. - The system is based on trend-following principles, where traders buy when prices break above certain levels and sell when they fall below others, focusing on capturing market trends [7][10]. - Key components of the system include entry signals based on price breakouts, risk management by limiting exposure to 1% of account funds per trade, and strict stop-loss rules to cut losses [7][10]. Group 2: Curtis Faith's Journey - Curtis Faith was one of the youngest Turtle Traders, achieving significant profits early in his career, reportedly earning over $10 million for his fund [15][17]. - After leaving the Turtle program, he attempted various ventures, including startups in IT and blockchain, but faced numerous failures, leading to financial ruin [19][25]. - His recent legal troubles and homelessness serve as a cautionary tale about the volatility of trading success and the risks of overextending in speculative ventures [13][28]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The article emphasizes the importance of skepticism towards trading gurus, suggesting that even successful traders can face significant failures, as demonstrated by Faith's experience [30][32]. - It warns against excessive risk-taking and highlights the need for disciplined investment strategies, contrasting trend-following with value investing approaches [34][37]. - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the long-term nature of successful investing, advocating for diversified asset allocation as a means to withstand market fluctuations [50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant penalties faced by Juewei Foods due to underreporting revenue over five years, leading to a substantial decline in market value and the imposition of an ST label on its stock [2][3][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Penalties - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that Juewei Foods underreported revenue by a total of 724 million yuan from 2019 to 2023, resulting in a fine of 8.5 million yuan [2][5]. - The company will face a one-day suspension of its stock on September 22, followed by the implementation of risk warnings starting September 23, which includes the addition of the ST label [3][8]. - The penalties include a warning and a fine of 4 million yuan for the company, while the chairman and general manager, Dai Wenjun, was fined 2 million yuan for direct responsibility [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Impact - Juewei Foods' market value has decreased by 57.5 billion yuan over three years, with its stock price dropping from a historical high of 21 yuan per share to around 15-16 yuan [10][11]. - The company's revenue showed a growth trend from 52.76 billion yuan in 2020 to 72.61 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit declined from 7.01 billion yuan to 3.44 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a pattern of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth [16]. - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 13.84% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 34.04%, and the first half of 2025 continued this trend with a 15.6% revenue decrease [16][17]. Group 3: Investor Reactions and Market Sentiment - Investor reactions to the ST label have been mixed, with some believing that the resolution of the investigation could lead to a recovery in stock price, while others remain skeptical due to ongoing fundamental issues such as declining store numbers and profits [18][19]. - The company has acknowledged the impact of the penalties on its operations and has committed to rectifying the issues and enhancing compliance measures to protect shareholder interests [20].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：奶牛的天空 来源：雪球 牛市大批人去做短线了，但是我依然执着于长线投资。今天来聊聊投资回报公式： 长期投资收益率=股息率+利润成长+估值变动 。举例：假设买入 股 票 时 ， 实 时 股 息 率 为 5% ， 利 润 成 长 年 化 为 5% ， PE 为 10； 假 设 卖 出 股 票 时 PE 保 持 不 变 ， 那 么 持 有 这 只 股 票 的 长 期 投 资 收 益 率 为 10%（5%+5%）。 一般来说，企业的基本面不发生变化的前提下，其估值会在一个区域内来回波动，期间可能会随着市场走牛或走熊而发生变化，但是最终的长期估 值还是会回归到它的基本面上来。 总结起来讲，基本面决定企业的长期估值，市场牛熊影响企业的短期估值。 下面我将逐一把公式里的3个元素讲 透： 一、 股息率为股票买入时的实时股息率 炒股软件上的股息率数据通常会有些滞后，特别是当天股价波动比较大的时候影响就比较大，我们可以自行来计算，准确率可以达到100%。 实时股息率=分红金额/当前实时股价*股权摊薄率。 如果企业一年有多次分红，注意要把各次的分红都加上。同时，如果企业每年的分红政策不是 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 逆向思维，就是，反过来想。总是反过来想。芒格认为，研究失败比研究成功更有价值。因为失败往往揭示了根本问题和风险所在。通过逆向思 考，人们可以更好的识别和规避陷阱，避免犯同样的错误。在股市投资中，芒格通过研究失败的公司的共同规律，来规避风险，他认为避免愚蠢比 追求智慧更容易成功，芒格在书中把失败的公司的原因归为四大类。 第一类失败，能力圈之外的无知型失败：不懂的公司坚决不买。 投资者买股票踩雷，本质是公司的失败。公司失败，本质是投资者和管理者，对业务的底层逻辑毫无认知。导致决策脱离现实。比如盲目跨界，盲 目多元化，比如传统制造业去做互联网，消费品公司去投资芯片，缺乏技术积累也不懂新行业规则，最终投入打水漂。比如箭牌口香糖，主业做的 很好，但是为了多元化盲目收购软件公司，因为完全不懂软件的研发，迭代逻辑，最终软件业务持续亏损，拖累了主业。再比如阿里巴巴投资饿了 吗，苏宁易购，大润发，高德地图，基本都是亏损累累。伯克希尔1989年收购美国航空优先股，到1994年亏损75%。芒格后来承认他和巴菲特低估 了航空业密集的资本投入和同质化竞争；再比如贵州 ...

Group 1 - The core philosophy of value investing emphasizes risk avoidance and the importance of a margin of safety, which is crucial for long-term investment success [2][3][4] - Investors should focus on setting risk targets rather than return targets, as many investment strategies overlook loss avoidance [3][5] - Value investors must maintain discipline and patience, often standing against popular market trends to find undervalued securities [5][6] Group 2 - The concept of margin of safety involves conservatively assessing a company's intrinsic value and comparing it to its market price, which is fundamental to value investing [6][7] - Investors should be cautious about the potential decline in a company's value and respond with conservative evaluations and increased margin of safety [7][8] - The assessment of tangible assets should take precedence over intangible assets, as the latter are more challenging to evaluate [8][9] Group 3 - Value investing tends to shine during market downturns, as it allows investors to benefit from both performance recovery and valuation increases when market perceptions shift [11][12][13] - Market declines often create opportunities for value investors, as securities may be mispriced due to prevailing negative sentiment [12][13] Group 4 - Value investing is characterized by a bottom-up approach, focusing on absolute performance rather than relative performance, and is fundamentally a risk-averse strategy [15][16] - The relationship between market prices and potential value can be reflexive, meaning that stock prices can influence a company's perceived value [19][20] Group 5 - Reverse thinking is essential in value investing, as undervalued securities are often those that are out of favor, while popular stocks tend to be overvalued [22][23] - Successful reverse investors must be prepared for initial losses and uncertainty, as they often go against prevailing market trends [23][24] Group 6 - The effectiveness of research in value investing is limited by the 80/20 principle, where most useful information can be gathered quickly, and excessive research may hinder timely investment decisions [26][30] - Value investors should focus on identifying undervalued opportunities rather than attempting to gather exhaustive information, as low prices can provide a margin of safety [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of three major indices: the Hang Seng Tech Index, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index, and the China Internet 50 Index, highlighting their significant gains and the underlying factors driving these increases [4][5]. Group 1: Index Performance - On September 17, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.22%, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index by 3.27%, and the China Internet 50 Index by 3.40%, all reaching nearly four-year highs [4]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 41.77%, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index and China Internet 50 Index have increased by 58.54% and 47.51% respectively [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - External factors include rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a more accommodative global liquidity environment, which benefit the overall liquidity of Hong Kong stocks [4]. - Internally, the ongoing AI wave and breakthroughs in core technologies like large models and cloud computing among domestic tech companies have significantly contributed to the strong performance of key tech stocks [4]. Group 3: Index Composition and Strategy - The China Internet 50 Index is characterized by a "head concentration + low-frequency adjustment" strategy, with over 50% of its weight concentrated in Tencent and Alibaba, and adjustments made semi-annually [7]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index employs a "diversified holding + high-frequency adjustment" strategy, with a maximum weight of 8% per stock and quarterly adjustments, allowing it to quickly capture emerging opportunities [7][8]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index has a middle-ground approach, with a maximum weight of 15% per stock and semi-annual adjustments, benefiting from liquidity premiums due to the inclusion of mainland investors [8]. Group 4: Industry Composition - The China Internet 50 Index focuses primarily on internet companies, with over 90% of its components in social media, e-commerce, and online entertainment, making it highly dependent on the internet industry cycle [9][10]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a balanced layout with approximately 55% in internet and over 40% in hard tech sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [10]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index features a more diversified industry coverage, including hard tech, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on growth [11]. Group 5: Valuation Analysis - As of September 16, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the China Internet 50 Index is 21.11, placing it in the 18.01% historical percentile, indicating it is at a historical low [15]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a PE ratio of 24.24, in the 35.07% historical percentile, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index has a PE ratio of 25.84, in the 53.31% historical percentile [15]. - All three indices are currently at relatively low or reasonably low valuation levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [16]. Group 6: Investment Suitability - The China Internet 50 Index is suitable for investors who believe in core assets, benefiting from the certainty of leading companies like Tencent and Alibaba [18]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index is recommended for balanced exposure to both soft and hard tech sectors, with a diversified holding strategy reducing single-industry risk [18]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index is ideal for investors looking to capture multidimensional growth opportunities in technology, with a focus on both growth and liquidity [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of index funds as a long-term investment strategy, highlighting their ability to capture overall market growth and reduce emotional trading behavior [45][47]. Group 1: Understanding Index Funds - Index funds are designed based on specific selection rules, such as market capitalization or industry, and are known as passive funds due to their automatic adherence to these rules [8]. - The most common types of index funds are broad-based and sector-specific funds, with broad-based funds reflecting overall market performance and sector funds representing specific industries [11][13]. - Index funds are often referred to as "immortal" because they continuously adjust their holdings based on selection criteria, ensuring they remain relevant as market conditions change [15][16]. Group 2: Selecting Index Funds - To profit from index investments, it is crucial to identify indices with a growing total market capitalization over time [27]. - In the Chinese market, there are over 2,000 index funds available, and investors should consider broad-based indices like the CSI 300 or A500 if they believe in the overall economic growth [28]. - Sector-specific index funds can be chosen if there is confidence in the sustained growth of a particular industry, but they may carry higher risks due to external factors [32]. Group 3: Investment Timing and Valuation - Before investing in index funds, it is essential to assess the valuation to determine if the current price is reasonable [33]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key indicator for evaluating the profitability of the underlying stocks in an index fund, with lower PE values generally being more favorable [36]. - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each unit of net asset, with lower PB values being preferable, especially for cyclical industries [38]. Group 4: Historical Context and Strategy - Historical percentiles provide context for current valuations, indicating whether the current PE or PB is relatively low or high compared to historical data [43]. - The article concludes that the success of Warren Buffett in his bet against active management can be attributed to the long-term upward trajectory of the S&P 500 and the self-adjusting nature of index funds, making them suitable for ordinary investors [45][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the US stock market following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with major indices reaching historical highs [2][4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.22% this week, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices increased by 2.21% and 1.05% respectively [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Oracle leading gains at over 4%, while Intel, which had surged 23% the previous day, experienced a 3% decline [7][8] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expressed that the current structure of the Chinese stock market's rise is healthier than historical levels, with valuations not appearing excessive [10][16] - The median price-to-earnings ratio for MSCI China index constituents is approximately 17 times, slightly above historical averages, while the CSI 300 index stands at 18 times, within historical mean range [16] - The article emphasizes that overseas long-term investors are increasingly interested in non-US markets, with China being favored due to its liquidity advantages and investment opportunities in sectors like robotics [18]

Core Viewpoint - The current market valuation appears high based on certain metrics, particularly the PE percentile, which indicates that the market is above historical averages, leading to concerns about potential overvaluation [3][5][6]. Valuation Analysis - The current PE of the CSI 300 index is 14.09, with a PE percentile of 82.4%, suggesting it is higher than 82% of historical data [5][6]. - The small-cap index, represented by the CSI 2000, has an alarming PE of 164, significantly higher than the CSI 300, indicating that some sectors are indeed overvalued [16][18]. - Despite the high PE percentile, the absolute valuation of the CSI 300 is not considered excessively high when compared to small-cap stocks [17][19]. Market Characteristics - The A-share market is characterized by prolonged periods of undervaluation and brief periods of overvaluation, making it essential to consider multiple valuation indicators rather than relying solely on the PE percentile [21][30]. - The PE percentile can be misleading; for instance, a PE of 13.26 only represents an 11.5% increase from a PE of 11.89, which is a relatively small change [25][29]. Alternative Valuation Metrics - The current earnings yield of the CSI 300 index is 7.09%, which remains attractive compared to low-risk investment yields that have fallen below 2% [31]. - The PB ratio for the CSI 300 is 1.47, with a PB percentile of 52.76%, indicating it is at a mid-level valuation [33]. Overall Market Sentiment - The current market valuation is perceived as neither cheap nor excessively expensive, suggesting a neutral stance where caution is advised but not to the extent of panic selling [35][36].

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with all three major indices closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16% [1] - Trading volume significantly decreased, with the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 2.32 trillion, a reduction of 811.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] High-Profile Stock Declines - Shanghai Construction fell to its daily limit, with a latest stock price of 3.49 yuan and a market capitalization of 31 billion [3] - The stock of Shanghai Construction saw a cumulative increase of 61% over five trading days from September 12 to September 18, with high turnover rates of 24.68% and 25.83% on September 17 and 18, indicating a "hot potato" effect [8] - Similarly, Shoukai Co., which had previously seen 12 consecutive days of gains, also experienced a limit down [9] Robotics Sector Retreat - The robotics sector saw a widespread decline, with stocks like Wolong Electric Drive, Bojie Co., and Wanxiang Qianchao hitting their daily limits, and Sanhua Intelligent Control dropping over 8% [13] - Wolong Electric Drive announced that its robotics-related products accounted for only 2.71% of its total revenue, indicating that the recent stock fluctuations would not significantly impact its operational performance [16] Lithium Mining Sector Surge - The lithium mining sector experienced a rally, with Ganfeng Lithium hitting its daily limit and other companies like Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium also seeing gains [17][18] - The upcoming 2025 Suining International Lithium Battery Industry Conference is expected to address safety and development standards in the lithium battery industry [20] Logistics Sector Activity - The logistics sector was active, with leading stock Shentong Express hitting its daily limit, and other companies like Huapengfei and YTO Express also seeing significant increases [21] - Recent operational data for August showed that YTO Express generated 5.39 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 9.82%, while Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, up 14.47% year-on-year [24][25]