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黄金矿企认为金价仍有三到五年的高价窗口期
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 14:28
Core Viewpoint - The current bull market for gold is expected to continue until the new technological revolution, represented by artificial intelligence, drives real interest rates higher [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen the largest increase since 2018, driven by a restructuring of gold pricing logic, shifting from commodity attributes to financial asset safety attributes due to declining trust in the US dollar [2]. - Global central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong demand [2]. - If global central banks increase the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves to 15%, the demand could reach 5,000 tons, significantly impacting gold prices [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Gold exploration investments have declined in recent years, limiting the ability to increase gold supply in the short term [4]. - The average annual compound growth rate for mined gold over the past 15 years is only 1.6%, while recycled gold has a growth rate of 0.6% [4]. - The global mining exploration budget for 2024 is approximately $12.5 billion, with only $5.5 billion allocated for gold exploration, showing no signs of recovery [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - High gold prices are making lower-grade mines profitable, which is expected to increase mining and exploration expenditures in the coming years [5]. - The next three to five years are anticipated to be a high-price window for gold, potentially allowing several leading Chinese gold mining companies to enter the top ten globally [5]. - Companies are advised to focus on quality project development, optimize their asset structures, and explore international capital platforms to promote internationalization [5].
4100家境内外平台报送了相关涉税信息
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 10:35
互联网平台交易的信息管理正是"网络不是法外之地"这一概念 的体现。当前,企业经营活动的互联网化越来越明确,特别是 在跨境交易方面,因此加强互联网交易平台的信息管理势在必 行。 作者: 杜涛 封图:图虫创意 今年10月1日起,按照国务院发布的《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》(下称《规定》)有关要求, 平台企业将首次向税务部门正式报送平台内经营者和从业人员的身份信息、收入信息。 记者从税务部门获悉,在平台内广大经营者和从业人员的支持配合下,各平台落实《规定》总体上积极主 动,特别是一些头部平台发挥示范带动作用,提高涉税信息报送的及时性、准确性和真实性,促进相关工 作进展顺利。截至目前,已有超过4100家境内外平台报送了相关涉税信息。 金杜律师事务所合伙人叶永青对经济观察报表示:"税收征管法一直以来都在强调信息管理的全面化,这次 《规定》是落实税收法治原则的重要体现,完善了征管的体系;同时《规定》也在努力平衡征纳关系,并 且特别设定了尽职免责条款,从而给平台的信息管理责任划定了一定的边界。" 叶永青认为,互联网平台交易的信息管理正是"网络不是法外之地"这一概念的体现。当前,企业经营活动 的互联网化越来越明确,特别 ...
上汽销量反超比亚迪,真实“含金量”如何
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 05:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in the Chinese automotive market, highlighting SAIC Motor's return to the top of the sales rankings, surpassing BYD in September 2023, with SAIC selling 439,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.39%, while BYD sold 396,200 vehicles [3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - SAIC Motor's sales recovery is attributed to the strong performance of its joint ventures, particularly SAIC-GM, which saw a 124.38% year-on-year increase in September sales, totaling 49,400 vehicles [6]. - SAIC Volkswagen also showed signs of recovery, with September sales reaching 94,000 vehicles, a slight increase of 0.09% year-on-year, driven by the resurgence of its main fuel vehicle series [6]. - The overall sales growth of SAIC's self-owned passenger vehicle segment is significant, with MG and Roewe brands achieving a combined sales of 93,700 vehicles in September, marking a 72.36% year-on-year increase [9][10]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - SAIC's self-owned brands are shifting towards a "downward" development strategy, targeting entry-level electric vehicles to capture a broader market segment [10]. - MG's new model, MG4, has been positioned in the entry-level electric vehicle market, achieving over 45,000 pre-orders within 24 days of its announcement, with a first-month sales figure of 11,700 vehicles [10]. - Roewe's new energy sedan, Roewe M7DMH, launched in September, has seen a retail sales increase of over 37% year-on-year, indicating a successful entry into the B-segment market [10]. Group 3: New Brand Developments - The new smart electric brand, "Shangjie," developed in collaboration with Huawei, has launched its first model, Shangjie H5, with a pre-sale price starting at 159,800 yuan, aiming to leverage Huawei's technology [12][13]. - Shangjie H5 has already received over 160,000 pre-orders, indicating strong market interest, but faces challenges in differentiating itself in a competitive market [13]. - The new generation of Zhiji cars, particularly the Zhiji LS6, has been launched with a focus on both pure electric and extended-range models, but its market performance remains to be seen [14].
对话张占斌:如何理解“十五五”对“人”的强调
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 05:56
Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving basic socialist modernization and serves as a pivotal link between the first centenary goal of reform and the second centenary goal of national rejuvenation [3][10]. Group 1: Historical Functions of the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is tasked with three historical functions: domestic transformation, completion of reform tasks, and alignment with global rules [10]. - It acts as a critical "relay station" in the "two-step" strategy, connecting the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "16th Five-Year Plan" [9][10]. - The period is also a "completion node" for over 300 major reform tasks, with a deadline set for 2029 [10]. Group 2: Highlights of the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The plan emphasizes the importance of the real economy, stating that economic development should focus on the real economy and maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing [6][11]. - It highlights the significance of "people," advocating for comprehensive human development and integrating investments in both material and human resources [7][18]. - The plan aims to promote new quality productivity by enhancing technological innovation and integrating it with industrial development [11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Policy Coordination - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is strategically positioned to address complex internal and external environments, focusing on the well-being of the people [11]. - It emphasizes the coordination of various policies, promoting the deep integration of the digital economy with the real economy [11][12]. - The plan aims to establish a high-level market economy and advance the construction of a unified national market [11]. Group 4: Emphasis on Human Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" places unprecedented importance on human development, upgrading the concept of people-centered development to a "people-first" governance principle [8][18]. - It aims to create a quantifiable and accountable reform loop that addresses the entire lifecycle of individuals, from birth to old age [18][19]. - The plan seeks to transform the demographic dividend into a quality dividend, ensuring that the populace feels tangible benefits from modernization efforts [19].
中国民营火箭急了!密集上天、扎堆上市
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 05:56
Core Viewpoint - The "star-rich, rocket-poor" dilemma in China's commercial space industry is being addressed through advancements in technology, capital investment, and policy support, indicating that the "spring of launch capacity" may arrive sooner than expected [6] Group 1: Recent Developments in Satellite Launches - On October 17, 2025, Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. successfully launched the sixth batch of satellites for its "Qianfan Constellation," bringing the total number of satellites in orbit to 108 [3] - As of September 2025, major telecom operators in China have received licenses for satellite mobile communication services, enabling direct satellite connections for mobile phones [3] - The domestic satellite internet market is experiencing significant growth, but the launch capacity remains constrained, necessitating the involvement of private rocket companies to alleviate this bottleneck [3][4] Group 2: Progress of Private Rocket Companies - Beijing Tianbing Technology Co., Ltd. announced successful sea trials for its "Tianlong-3" rocket, which has a near-Earth orbit capacity of 17 to 22 tons and can deploy up to 36 satellites in one launch [4][9] - Blue Arrow Aerospace successfully completed the first phase of its "Zhuque-3" rocket's launch preparations, with plans for its first flight by the end of the year [5][11] - Other companies, such as Zhongke Aerospace and Xinhai Power, are also making strides in their respective rocket developments, with plans for upcoming launches [11][12] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The demand for satellite launches is high, with estimates indicating that the "Qianfan Constellation" requires 200 to 300 satellite launches annually, necessitating multiple rockets with capacities exceeding 10 tons [8] - Recent financing rounds have seen significant investments in private rocket companies, with Xinhai Power raising 2.4 billion yuan and Tianbing Technology securing nearly 2.5 billion yuan for production and development [16][17] - The Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has opened a window for IPOs in the commercial space sector, prompting several companies to initiate the listing process [17][18] Group 4: Cost Reduction Strategies - The cost of launching a 10-ton capacity rocket by state-owned companies is estimated at over 200 million yuan, while private rockets aim to reduce this cost to around half [24] - The potential for cost reduction through reusable rocket technology is significant, with estimates suggesting a 40% to 60% decrease in launch costs if successful [25][26] - Companies are exploring innovative manufacturing techniques, such as 3D printing and the use of stainless steel, to lower production costs and improve efficiency [26][27][28]
经观社论|为了每个人的福祉
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 05:56
如果说过去四十年,依托于大规模的基础设施投资和强大的制 造 业 体 系 , 中 国 创 造 了 举 世 瞩 目 的 经 济 奇 迹 , 完 成 了 惊 人 的"物的积累"。那么在"十五五"这个承前启后的关键时期, 我们必然会越来越多地认识到人和"人的发展"的重要性。对一 个国家来说,只有当经济社会发展的福祉能够更好更公平地惠 及所有人时,我们才迈向了更全面、更可持续的发展之路。 作者: 经观社论 封图:图虫创意 10月20日至23日召开的中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》,这是一份为"十五五"定调的纲领性文件。在10月23日发布的《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》(下称《公报》)中, 我们注意到,"人"成为了多次出现的关键词。比如"推动人的全面发展""投资于物和投资于人紧密结合""以人为本的新型城镇化",从"人民生活水 平不断提高"到"人民生活更加幸福美好",《公报》中多处出现围绕人的目标愿景。 这将跨越两个五年规划。到2035年,中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家水平,基本实现社会主义现代化。五年规划像中国人 ...
城投“退平台”风暴来袭,万亿城投债何去何从?
经济观察报· 2025-10-25 02:59
Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, an increasing number of government financing platforms have announced their separation from government credit, indicating a significant shift in the operational landscape of local government financing platforms [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Timeline - The "150 Document" issued in August 2025 mandates that local government financing platforms must be cleared by June 2027, aiming to eliminate hidden local government debt [3][4]. - As of October 2025, over 15 financing platforms have announced their exit from government financing, with a total of 114 platforms officially disclosing their exit in 2025 alone [3][5]. - The exit trend is particularly pronounced in provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, which have seen the highest numbers of platforms withdrawing [5][6]. Group 2: Market Transition and Challenges - The transition from government-backed financing to market-oriented operations is essential for financing platforms to enhance their self-sustaining capabilities [14][15]. - The restructuring process is driven by both policy enforcement and the platforms' internal needs to adapt to a market-driven environment [5][13]. - Financing platforms are encouraged to focus on market-oriented business models, moving away from traditional infrastructure projects to sectors like renewable energy and urban services [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Debt Management - The exit from government financing does not equate to a complete severance of ties with local governments; rather, it necessitates a clear delineation of responsibilities and collaboration [9][11]. - Financial institutions are advised to manage existing debts carefully, ensuring that platforms can meet their obligations without relying on government support [7][11]. - The successful issuance of bonds by entities like Chongqing Urban Investment post-exit indicates a potential recovery of market confidence in these platforms [9][10]. Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Focus - Financing platforms must enhance their operational efficiency and focus on core business areas to ensure stable cash flows [15][16]. - There is a need for platforms to actively engage in market opportunities that align with local economic development, such as smart city initiatives and industrial park operations [16]. - The transformation of financing platforms is not merely a regulatory requirement but a strategic necessity to adapt to changing economic conditions and stakeholder expectations [12][14].
别让青少年的认知力被屏幕耗尽
经济观察报· 2025-10-24 10:58
Core Viewpoint - Social media is reshaping the relationship between teenagers and the world, serving as both a window for connection and a vortex of temptation, emphasizing the need for children to learn how to choose and maintain freedom within technology [2][9]. Group 1: Research Findings - A recent study published in JAMA tracked over 6,500 American teenagers aged 9 to 13, revealing that those with high daily social media usage scored significantly lower in language comprehension and memory tests, indicating that excessive screen time may lead to cognitive fatigue [3][4]. - The study highlights that lower frequency of social media use correlates with better cognitive performance among teenagers, reinforcing the idea that moderation is a protective mechanism in the digital age [4][5]. Group 2: Recommendations for Healthy Usage - It is essential to establish fixed "offline periods" and limit usage time, which should be viewed as a way to create space for critical thinking rather than deprivation [5]. - Parents should not only impose restrictions but also model healthy usage by engaging with their children in setting usage plans, as family screen culture significantly influences children's habits [5][6]. Group 3: Societal Responsibility - Addressing the issue of teenage social media addiction requires a collective effort from platforms, schools, and parents, with platforms needing to control content recommendations and push frequencies for teenage users [5][6]. - Schools should prioritize digital literacy education, incorporating media usage education into the curriculum to help children identify misinformation and understand algorithm mechanisms [5][6]. Group 4: Building Real Connections - To combat the competition between virtual "weak ties" and real-world relationships, it is crucial to foster strong connections in real life, such as family interactions and peer activities, which are vital for emotional regulation and mental health [6].
9平米格子间的义乌女老板,老市场里的“新”生意
经济观察报· 2025-10-24 10:58
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the adaptability and resilience of business owners in Yiwu, particularly female entrepreneurs, in response to changing international trade dynamics, including the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the introduction of AI technologies in their operations [2][10][14]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - U.S. customers have not completely stopped placing orders despite the imposition of tariffs, but there has been a reduction in order volume [2][14]. - Business owners like Yao Baojuan are cautious about accepting orders if profit margins are significantly compressed due to tariffs [14]. - The diverse customer base of Yiwu merchants mitigates the impact of U.S. tariffs, as they are not solely reliant on a few markets [10][14]. Group 2: Language and Skills Development - Yiwu merchants are increasingly learning new languages to better communicate with international clients, recognizing that English alone is insufficient [3][4]. - Training programs in various languages, including Spanish and Arabic, have been implemented to enhance trade capabilities [3][4]. - Entrepreneurs like Yao Baojuan and Fu Jiangyan have successfully transitioned from basic communication methods to fluently negotiating in multiple languages [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology Adoption - The introduction of AI tools in Yiwu has transformed how businesses operate, allowing for efficient communication and marketing through multilingual videos [8][9]. - Entrepreneurs like Sun Lijuan have leveraged AI to enhance product visibility and streamline customer interactions, resulting in a significant increase in sales [9][10]. - The launch of the sixth-generation market, which includes a digital trade center, represents a shift towards a more integrated and modern trading environment [20][21]. Group 4: Market Expansion Strategies - Yiwu merchants are actively exploring new markets to diversify their customer base and reduce dependency on any single market [10][21]. - Sun Lijuan has successfully penetrated markets in the Middle East and South America, while Fu Jiangyan is focusing on the African market due to its growing demand [10][21]. - The sixth-generation market is seen as a new opportunity for growth, with some entrepreneurs already securing positions there [20][21].
大明电子今日申购,打造全球汽车电子标杆企业
经济观察报· 2025-10-24 10:58
Core Viewpoint - Daming Electronics is a leading player in the automotive electronic control systems sector, focusing on both traditional and new energy vehicles, with a strong growth trajectory supported by its IPO and strategic investments in production capacity [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Daming Electronics is one of the few companies in China capable of developing and mass-producing complete vehicle electronic control systems [2]. - The company has established itself as an "invisible champion" in the body electronics sector during the era of fuel vehicles and is now capitalizing on opportunities in the new energy vehicle market [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The projected revenues for Daming Electronics from 2022 to 2024 are 1.713 billion, 2.147 billion, and 2.727 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits after deductions expected to be 143 million, 196 million, and 279 million yuan [2]. - The company anticipates steady growth in operating performance through the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Group 3: IPO and Future Plans - The IPO aims to raise funds primarily for the second phase of the Chongqing factory project and to supplement working capital [2]. - The Chongqing facility is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 12.637 million sets of body electronic control systems, enhancing overall operational efficiency [2]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - Daming Electronics will continue to focus on the automotive body electronic control systems sector, aiming to expand its scale and comprehensive strength by leveraging its accumulated experience and competitive advantages [3]. - The company plans to upgrade its products and increase market share by responding quickly to customer needs and deepening partnerships with key clients [3].