Market Overview - The global AI server market is projected to reach $125.1 billion in 2024, $158.7 billion in 2025, and $222.7 billion by 2028, with generative AI servers expected to increase their market share from 29.6% in 2025 to 37.7% in 2028 [1] Major Players' Shipment Data - NVIDIA holds nearly 70% of the AI chip market share, with the new Blackwell platform expected to account for 82% of its high-end GPU shipments in 2025. The company plans to launch the B30 for the Chinese market in the second half of 2025, with the B300 and GB300 expected to contribute 60-65% of its total GPU shipments for the year [2][3] - AMD's high-end GPU shipments are forecasted to grow by 48% in 2025, reaching approximately 585,000 units. The MI325 series has a low adoption rate, while the MI350 series is expected to enter the market in the second half of 2025 [5][4] - Intel's Gaudi3 high-end AI chip is projected to have a shipment volume of around 100,000 units in 2025, targeting CSPs and IBM as primary customers [6] - Google is expected to lead in cloud service provider (CSP) shipments with approximately 2.2 million TPUs in 2025, while AWS's self-developed ASIC shipments are projected to reach over 1.8 million units, nearly doubling from previous figures [7][8] Chip Type and Shipment Forecast - NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments are expected to total around 6.6 million units in 2025, with significant contributions from the Blackwell platform [3] - AMD's MI series is expected to see a total shipment of 585,000 high-end GPUs in 2025, with the MI350 series anticipated to compete directly with NVIDIA's offerings [5] - The Ascend (昇腾) ASIC is projected to reach 450,000 units in 2025, driven by domestic AI demand and trade restrictions [8]

还有专注于半导体行业分析的SemiAnalysis的全部分析报告： 想要看外资研报的同学，给大家推荐一个星球，在星球中每天都会上传几百篇外资顶尖投行的原文研 报：大摩、小摩、UBS、高盛、Jefferies、HSBC、花旗、BARCLAYS 等。 星球中每日还会更新Seeking Alpha、Substack的精选付费文章， 现在星球中领券后只需要390元，即可 每天都能看到上百篇外资顶尖投行科技行业的分析报告和每天的精选报告，无论是我们自己做投资，还 是对行业有更深入的研究，都是非常值得的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an in-depth analysis of SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), focusing on its financial model and growth prospects, particularly in the context of China's semiconductor policies and market dynamics [1]. Financial Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from $2.07 billion in 2017 to $23.04 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8%, driven by the expansion of 28nm and above mature process capacities, especially post-2020 due to global chip shortages and domestic semiconductor policies [2]. - Gross margin is expected to increase from 21.2% in 2017 to 26.1% in 2028, benefiting from scale effects in mature processes, although it remains significantly lower than TSMC's 55% during the same period [2]. - EBITDA is forecasted to rise from $730 million to $12.17 billion, with EBITDA margin improving from 35.5% to 48.5%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures (Capex) are set to reach $7.326 billion in 2024, increasing to $8.69 billion in 2025 and peaking at $9.622 billion in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 18.4% from 2017 to 2028, which is higher than the revenue growth rate [3]. - 90% of Capex is allocated to equipment procurement, primarily for mature process technologies, with 10% for wafer fab infrastructure [4]. - High Capex leads to significant depreciation costs, projected to reach $3.742 billion in 2024, which will pressure profit margins [4]. Business Structure - The wafer business is the core revenue driver for SMIC, contributing approximately 93.2% of total revenue in 2018, expected to rise to 95% by 2024 [7]. - Revenue from the 12/14nm nodes has shown rapid growth, from nearly negligible in 2019 to an estimated $838 million in 2024, driven by increasing market demand [8]. - The 28nm node remains a significant revenue contributor, with expected revenue of approximately $1.145 billion in 2024, despite facing competitive pressures [9]. Capacity and Market Competitiveness - Total capacity is projected to reach 884,000 wafers per month in 2024, increasing to 941,000 in 2025, with major production bases in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Tianjin [13]. - The Shanghai facility focuses on advanced processes, while the Beijing plant targets mature processes, with a significant portion of Capex directed towards expanding capacity in response to rising automotive electronics demand [13]. - Risks include potential impacts from U.S. sanctions on equipment maintenance and over-reliance on policy subsidies, which could lead to price competition [13]. R&D Investment and Technological Innovation - R&D expenditures are expected to rise to $1.031 billion in 2024, accounting for 9.4% of revenue, with a focus on optimizing 14nm FinFET processes and developing IoT chips [16]. - Despite increased R&D spending, challenges remain due to U.S. sanctions limiting access to advanced equipment, resulting in lower yield rates for 14nm processes [16]. - The company aims to balance high R&D intensity with policy requirements, although the return on investment in R&D is projected to be below the cost of capital, indicating diminishing marginal returns [17][18].

还有专注于半导体行业分析的SemiAnalysis的全部分析报告： 星球中每日还会更新Seeking Alpha、Substack的精选付费文章， 现在星球中领券后只需要390元，即可 每天都能看到上百篇外资顶尖投行科技行业的分析报告和每天的精选报告，无论是我们自己做投资，还 是对行业有更深入的研究，都是非常值得的。 想要看外资研报的同学，给大家推荐一个星球，在星球中每天都会上传几百篇外资顶尖投行的原文研 报：大摩、小摩、UBS、高盛、Jefferies、HSBC、花旗、BARCLAYS 等。 ...

以下文章来源于美投传习录 ，作者鹿米 美投传习录 . https://alpha.isnow.ai 作者 公开构建基于 AI 的市场信息工具与论文回测引擎 我在上一篇文章中披露的： 从十万美元交易到四个亿——看我的自研回测引擎如何"撒豆成兵" 的这个 论文回测引擎的网站部分终于在五一这天开发完毕了： 在这里我选了 40+经典策略论文，同时我也构建了一个搜索引擎，获取了 5000篇 G14 类别的经济学论文（G14 是和交易策略最为相关的论文分类），未来一方面会纳入更多的 论文，另一方面我会不断检验这些回测代码并进行持续性的优化，也会以这个公众号和我 的网站为载体，写一些静态化的 blog（日后会考虑多语种支持）为载体，去系统的介绍 策略思想，量化交易的基础以及回测系统的工程化实践，一来是为了 SEO 引流，另一方 面也是进一步公开检验我的系统。 如果你随便点击一个策略，你会发现我做了很多细节上的公开： 最近开发和思索，使我对网站未来的方向的规划也更加聚焦——我会集中在两大方向来持续 发布，如同程序等于 数据结构 + 算法，我在这里把交易逻辑也分为两部分—— 1. Insights : 洞见，视野，本质上就是信 ...

还有专注于半导体行业分析的SemiAnalysis的全部分析报告： 星球中每日还会更新Seeking Alpha、Substack的精选付费文章， 现在星球中领券后只需要390元，即可 每天都能看到上百篇外资顶尖投行科技行业的分析报告和每天的精选报告，无论是我们自己做投资，还 是对行业有更深入的研究，都是非常值得的。 想要看外资研报的同学，给大家推荐一个星球，在星球中每天都会上传几百篇外资顶尖投行的原文研 报：大摩、小摩、UBS、高盛、Jefferies、HSBC、花旗、BARCLAYS 等。 ...

end GPU 我们前几天讲过华为的CloudMatrix 384，在该AI集群的核心，是384块Ascend 910C芯片，它们以"全 互连"（all-to-all）拓扑结构相互连接。这套系统内部简称CM384。 根据SemiAnalysis的分析，CloudMatrix 384的BF16的算力是GB200 NVL72的1.7倍，显存容量是 GB200的3.6倍，由于集成了384个910C，这也导致了功耗是GB200的3.9倍。虽然单个chip的性能不如 GB200，但CloudMatrix 384系统绝对是目前最强的AI服务器。 据Financial Times的报道，一套完整的CloudMatrix 384系统的售价约为800万美元，约合5800万人民 币，大约是英伟达GB200 NVL72价格的三倍。这清楚地表明了华为的战略目标：它并不是要提供一 种低成本的替代方案，而是要为中国市场建立一个独立、无需依赖出口的高性能平台。 已有十家中国大型客户采用了该系统，并将其集成进现有的数据中心基础设施中。尽管这些客户的 名称并未公开，但报道称他们都是华为长期合作伙伴——很可能包括国家资助的云服务商、电信集 团以 ...

Group 1 - The article recommends a platform where users can access hundreds of top-tier foreign investment bank research reports daily, including those from firms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, HSBC, Citigroup, and Barclays [1] - The platform also provides comprehensive analysis reports focused on the semiconductor industry from SemiAnalysis, along with selected paid articles from Seeking Alpha and Substack [3] - The subscription to the platform is currently available for 390 yuan, allowing users to access a wealth of technology industry analysis reports and selected articles daily, which is deemed valuable for both investment and in-depth industry research [3]

Core Viewpoint - Intel experienced significant turmoil in 2024, facing intense competition in the chip design and manufacturing market, leading to substantial losses. In 2025, under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, the company is taking measures to address systemic issues and streamline operations, although a full turnaround will take several quarters [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Intel reported revenue of $12.7 billion, flat year-over-year but down 11% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin was 36.9%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points year-over-year and 2.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net loss was $888 million, a 115% decrease year-over-year and a 604% decline quarter-over-quarter [2][3]. - Despite the losses, Intel achieved a non-GAAP profit of $580 million, indicating that core operations are not entirely in distress. However, restructuring and compensation costs have significantly impacted overall performance [3]. Business Unit Developments - Intel's Foundry division generated $4.7 billion in revenue, a 7% increase year-over-year, but faced an operating loss of $2.3 billion, with an operating margin of -50%. The division is striving to become a key player in the contract manufacturing space [4][5]. - The Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) reported revenue of $4.1 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, with operating income of $575 million and an operating margin of 13.9%, marking the best performance in over a year. AI hardware sales were below expectations, but CPU and storage sales exceeded forecasts [7]. - The Client Computing Group (CCG), Intel's primary revenue source, saw revenue of $7.6 billion, an 8% decline year-over-year, with operating income of $2.4 billion and an operating margin of 30.9%. The group absorbed the edge computing business, but overall performance was affected by inherited underperforming product lines [8]. Strategic Changes - Intel completed the divestiture of its NAND business, selling it to SK Hynix, and is in the process of selling a majority stake in FPGA manufacturer Altera to Silver Lake, retaining 49% ownership. The valuation for Altera is approximately $8.75 billion [2][9]. - The company is also restructuring its operations, with plans to reduce capital expenditures from $20 billion to $18 billion and operating expenses by $500 million to $17 billion in 2025, with further reductions planned for 2026 [10]. Future Outlook - Intel's Q2 2025 revenue outlook is projected at $11.8 billion (±$600 million), with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expected to be 34.3% and 36.5%, respectively. The company anticipates challenges due to U.S. trade policies and potential economic downturns [9][10].

最近我们花了很多精力在H200/B200这些数据中心的服务器上，只能说坑很多，套路很深，但好事多 磨，最近的收货让我们觉得做件事是值得的。 这篇文章我们就来简单聊一下数据中心的投资现状，综合TD Cowen报告、The Information/BBG文章 及多位行业专家访谈，看下国外的大厂对IDC的态度，后面我们还有专门写一期 国内IDC 投资现 状。 微软数据中心投资放缓 相信大家也都看到这个新闻，微软正经历数据中心投资需求的显著放缓或调整。自去年起退出超 1GW的数据中心交易，并终止部分土地合同。放缓国际扩张步伐，并暂停/推迟了多个国内外项目， 包括美国（亚特兰大、威斯康星二期、圣安东尼奥、堪萨斯城、锡达拉皮兹）及欧洲、印度、英 国、澳大利亚等地，涉及规划租赁需求减少近1.98GW（原计划4年完成，年均约500MW）。 导致调整的原因是多方面的： 1. 资源消化：消化2024年已大量租赁的资源，避免过度建设。 2. 建设复杂性：超大规模数据中心设计和建设本身复杂，导致客观延迟。 3. OpenAI战略转移：OpenAI不再完全依赖微软，转向甲骨文、CoreWeave等第三方并大力推进自 建，导致微软为其规 ...