国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 国别研究负责人 陈熙淼 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 院长助理 汪立亭 全球地缘格局和大国博弈背景下，中欧关系与经贸投资往来同步面临深刻挑战与机遇。本篇报告作 为国别研究之欧洲研究系列专题一，期望从经济、地缘、投资、金融等视角深度剖析和解读，如何 在当下多边主义时代看待欧洲投资机会，并为中国企业赴欧洲出海投资提供更多维度的分析视角。 拨云见日，掘金多瑙 —— 欧洲 国 别研究专 题 系列 （三、金融与资本市场变化） 4.1. 金融市场表现： 5 月特朗普关税政策缓和，欧元兑美元高位回落，欧美国债利差收窄 通胀水平放缓为欧洲央行进一步降息提供操作空间， 4 月以来特朗普关税政策缓和，欧洲投资者信心已显著回升。 因步入 5 月，特朗普关税政 策明显缓和和近期欧元区通胀水平的走低为后续货币政策操作打开空间，欧洲央行决策者对 6 月降息的信心有所增强，而 5 月欧元区投资者信 心指数显示较 4 月明显回升，且结构上，无论是机构还是个人投资者预期攀升幅度明显高于现状指数。 5 月 9 日，欧洲央行管委 Simkus 表 示：欧洲央行 6 月降息是必要的， 6 月之后有可能再次降息，且目前很 ...

Power Generation Sector - The core viewpoint is that the northern thermal power sector shows resilience while hydropower maintains stable growth, leading to an "overweight" rating for the public utility sector [1] - In Q1 2025, the profitability of national thermal power companies continues to grow, with northern thermal power plants outperforming southern ones [1] - The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a decline in market confidence regarding the sustainability of profit improvements [1][2] - Hydropower companies maintained a high growth rate in Q1 2025, with a median profit growth rate of 26%, driven by improved water storage and scheduling [2] - The median PE ratios for hydropower companies were 16.7, 18.8, and 18.1 for Q1 2023, Q1 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively, reflecting stable performance and improved valuations for leading companies [2] Green Energy Sector - Green energy companies are facing profit pressure due to declining electricity prices and unfavorable wind conditions, with median net profit growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall industry is experiencing a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits, with expectations of recovery in 2025 as wind energy utilization hours improve [3] - Since 2022, the valuation of green energy companies has been continuously revised downwards, with a projected median net profit growth rate of around 12% for 2025 [3] Yiwu Trade Data - Yiwu's import and export total reached 231.31 billion yuan in the first four months of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with exports growing by 15.3% and imports by 13.5% [5] - The market procurement trade method accounted for 81.7% of Yiwu's total exports, indicating a strong contribution from this trade model [5][6] - Exports to major markets such as Latin America, the EU, and ASEAN showed strong growth, with increases of 18.3%, 15.5%, and 12.3% respectively [6] - The import structure is improving, with a significant increase in imports of mechanical and electrical products by 73.4% in the first four months [7]

亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

Group 1: Convertible Bond Market - The core issue in the convertible bond market is the credit shock risk, which is deemed controllable despite a significant number of downgrades in 2024 due to a prolonged decline in the equity market [1][2] - In June 2024, 64 convertible bonds were downgraded, with a peak of 40 downgrades in June alone, compared to 25 and 26 in June 2022 and 2023 respectively, indicating a growing concern among investors [1][2] - The underlying reasons for the decline in convertible bonds include stricter delisting rules, exposure to credit risks, weakened expectations for underlying stocks, and a large number of bonds approaching their redemption period [1][2][3] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability in Q2 2025, driven by high passenger traffic and rising ticket prices, despite a 17% drop in domestic aviation fuel prices [5][6] - OPEC+ is anticipated to accelerate production, which will enhance oil transportation demand and stabilize freight rates, with VLCC TCE rates remaining above $40,000 [6][7] - The highway sector is experiencing steady growth, with a 3.9% increase in personnel flow and a 5.4% increase in freight volume in Q1 2025, supported by policy optimizations and legislative changes [6][7] Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is witnessing a decline, with China's first aircraft carrier undergoing sea trials and increased attention on the J-10CE fighter jet, which has gained international interest due to its cost-effectiveness [9][10] - The U.S. is investing significantly in missile defense systems, indicating a shift in defense strategies towards the Indo-Pacific region, which may lead to increased military spending [10][11] - The long-term outlook for the military industry remains positive due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the need for advanced military capabilities [11] Group 4: Southeast Asia Economic Trends - Southeast Asian economies are showing resilience, particularly in consumer sectors, with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia actively increasing exports, especially to the U.S. [13][14] - Stock markets in Southeast Asia have largely recovered from tariff impacts, with Vietnam and Indonesia performing better than Malaysia and Thailand [13][14] - There is a growing focus on semiconductor development in Southeast Asia, with countries enhancing support for this sector amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [13][14]

报告导读： ①历史上每轮行情都有主导产业，如 05-07 地产、 12-15 科创、 19-21 新能 源，当前新旧动能转换中， AI 产业周期或引领港股向上。②基本面：资本开支高增、汇聚 稀缺资产的港股科技更受益于 AI 产业叙事，业绩有望加速释放。③资金面：南下大幅流入 背景下定价权强化，未来仍有增量空间，低位配置中国资产的外资逐渐改善中。④未来贸 易环境虽对港股仍有扰动，不过政策发力驱动基本面修复，下半年继续看好港股，结构上 恒生科技更优。 本文摘自：2025年5月27日发布的 恒生科技牛——2025年下半年港股策略展望 吴信坤 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040061 杨 锦 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040083 余培仪 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040084 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yellow wine industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on high-end product structures and targeting younger consumer groups, leading to improved profitability in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a revival, with leading companies emphasizing youth-oriented and high-end strategies. The overall sales revenue for yellow wine in 2023 increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 21 billion, while revenue from large enterprises decreased by 15.9% year-on-year to 8.5 billion [2]. - The market for yellow wine is primarily concentrated in Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu, with market sizes of 3.7 billion, 3.1 billion, and 1.3 billion respectively in 2022 [2]. - Since 2021, industry policies have been increasingly supportive, with the Zhejiang provincial government planning further actions in 2024 to enhance industry promotion and support [2]. Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - Leading companies are focusing on upgrading product structures, with a continuous increase in price per ton from 2022 to 2024, and a new round of price increases expected in 2025 to enhance the value of yellow wine [3]. - There is a targeted effort to attract younger consumers by optimizing flavors and product designs, including innovations like sparkling yellow wine, fruit-flavored yellow wine, and sugar-free options [3]. - New marketing channels are being leveraged, with significant growth in online sales through platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, utilizing influencer marketing and short video promotions [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The profitability of leading yellow wine companies is on the rise, with projected revenue and net profit growth of 10.0% and 27.7% respectively for 2024, driven by product upgrades and price increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term proposition of DRAM is transitioning from 2D to 3D architecture, with NPU as a co-processor likely to be the next trend in edge technology when combined with 3D DRAM [1][2][4]. Industry Insights and Investment Recommendations - The integration of NPU as a co-processor with 3D DRAM is expected to be a significant trend in edge technology, leading to an "overweight" rating for the industry [2]. - Current advancements in DRAM technology face challenges as the process node has reached 10nm, making it increasingly difficult to achieve stable charge storage and read/write operations in smaller spaces [3]. - The hybrid bonding method improves stacking height limitations and is seen as the future technical path for 3D DRAM, allowing for more stacked layers and better thermal management compared to existing Micro bump technology [3]. AI Application and Memory Bandwidth - AI applications are diversifying rather than conforming to a unified model, with hardware developments paving the way for new technologies that support AI's ubiquitous and always-on capabilities [4]. - The primary bottleneck for AI edge inference speed is memory bandwidth rather than computational power, with 3D DRAM addressing memory limitations effectively [5]. - For instance, Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 GEN 3 has a computational capability of approximately 45 TOPs and a memory bandwidth of about 67 GB/s, highlighting the significant impact of memory bandwidth on performance [5].