格局先于需求触底, 中国材料在产业升级 和全球化中突围 一价值主张 以材料作为观察产业的哨兵,在行业龙头的 战略趋势中寻找投资机会。 :: : 鲍雁辛 研究所副所长、政策和产业研究院副院 长、建材首席分析师 国泰海通证券 | 研究所 行业核心洞察 查看详细议程 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：水泥的"龟兔赛跑"时刻；报告日期： 20250316；报告作者：鲍雁辛 S0880513070005；风险提示：货币财政房地产宏观政策风险;原材料 成本风险。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 点击下方图片 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活 ...

报告导读： 上周全球市场小幅收涨，估值继续拔升，港股卖空占比降至历史低位。资金面 上，美联储如期降息 25BP ，但鲍威尔发言中性偏鸽，联储年内或降息 2 次左右。基本面 上，上周欧美经济预期出现改善，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 市场表现：上周全球市场小幅收涨。 股市方面，MSCI全球+1.0%，其中MSCI发达+1.0%、MSCI新兴+1.1%。债市方面，美国10Y国债利率大幅上升。大宗 方面，金价小幅收涨，原油、铜价下跌。汇率方面，美元平，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币平。分板块看，上周全球可选消费与信息技术板块表现突出。 交投情绪：上周欧美股市成交明显放量，港股卖空占比降至历史低位。 从成交看，上周恒指、日经225成交下降，标普500、欧洲Stoxx50、韩国Kospi200 成交上升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏高位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、日股波动率下降，美 股、欧股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周提升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期转为上修，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 横向对比来看，上周港股25年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，美股、 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in activity, with private equity increasing positions and retail investor participation rising, while southbound capital inflow is slowing down [3][4]. Market Pricing Status - Market sentiment has improved slightly, with average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 25 trillion yuan, and turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing to the 95th and 93rd percentiles respectively [3]. - The proportion of stocks that are rising has decreased to 32.0%, and the median weekly return for A-share stocks has dropped to -1.66% [3]. - Industry trading concentration is on the rise, with 19 industries having turnover rates above the 90th percentile, particularly in the automotive sector [3]. A-share Capital Flow - Public funds saw new issuance scale increase to 23.58 billion yuan, while stock positions were reduced [4]. - Private equity confidence index slightly rebounded, with positions surpassing 78%, nearing the highest point of the year [4]. - Foreign capital inflow amounted to 920 million USD, with northbound trading accounting for 10.0% of total transactions [4]. - The IPO fundraising reached 200 million yuan, with a private placement scale of 800 million yuan and a lock-up release scale of 61.34 billion yuan [4]. - Retail investor activity showed marginal improvement [4]. A-share Industry Allocation - Foreign capital is flowing into the financial and technology sectors, while financing funds are increasing allocations to non-TMT sectors [5]. - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 14.99 billion yuan, while non-bank financials had a net inflow of 6.6 billion yuan [5]. - ETF flows indicate significant passive capital movement, with non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals leading in net inflows [5]. Hong Kong and Global Capital Flow - Southbound capital inflow decreased to 36.85 billion yuan, representing the 89th percentile since 2022 [6]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6%, with global markets mostly up, particularly in Indonesia and Brazil [6]. - Foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market reached 1.73 billion USD, while developed markets saw a net outflow of 5.2 billion USD [6]. - Emerging markets experienced a net inflow of 7.71 billion USD, with China and the US leading in inflow amounts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the recent monetary policy adjustments, particularly regarding the 14-day reverse repurchase agreements (OMO), indicate a protective stance rather than a shift towards marginal easing of monetary policy [2][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Adjustments - On September 19, the central bank announced a change to the 14-day reverse repo bidding method to "multiple price bidding," but the central bank governor clarified on September 22 that this does not involve adjustments to short-term policies [2]. - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo aligns with previous strategies and does not signal a clear intention to lower interest rates, maintaining a consistent approach to monetary policy [3]. Market Impact - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repo in the bond market is limited, and it is likely to continue serving as a tool for addressing special periods such as holidays [4]. - Historical data shows that the central bank typically uses the 14-day reverse repo before major holidays, indicating its role in smoothing out liquidity around these times [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the central bank's current protective stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [5]. - The likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, suggesting that the bond market may not benefit from new policy measures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to drive significant growth in the demand for related testing equipment, with the global AI computing test equipment market projected to reach $2.3 billion by 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: AI Computing Test Equipment Market - The global AI computing test equipment market is anticipated to grow rapidly, reaching $2.3 billion by 2024 [2]. - The integrated circuit production process requires various tests, including WAT, CP, and FT tests, with the global integrated circuit testing equipment market projected to be $7.54 billion in 2024 and $9.77 billion by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.58% [2]. - Teradyne, a leading global testing machine company, estimates that the market for AI computing testing equipment will continue to grow [2]. Group 2: HBM Product Testing Demand - The demand for testing HBM products is increasing due to strong demand from AI chip customers, with SK Hynix leading the HBM market [3]. - HBM products are evolving from 8-layer DRAM chips to 12-layer configurations, necessitating additional testing steps to ensure quality and yield [3]. Group 3: Server Testing Equipment Demand - The rapid growth of AI model parameters is driving the need for substantial computing power and memory resources, leading to the emergence of supernode technology [4]. - Complex server systems, such as NVIDIA's NVL72 solution, require extensive testing, including ICT, FCT, aging, SIT, performance, and compatibility tests, highlighting the growing importance of testing equipment suppliers [4].

2025国泰海通海外市场 9月23日-上海 · 浦东香格里拉酒店 主会场 开场致辞 9:00-9:10 陈忠义 - 国泰海通证券副总裁、研究与机构业务委员 会总裁、政策和产业研究院院长 9:10-9:20 开场致辞 郭信麟 - 智信财经董事长 张家栋 - 复旦大学美国研究中心教授、外交部专家组成员 闭门研讨与小范围交流 * 名额有限,报名采取审核制。报名请联系您的国泰海通对口销售或 海外科技秦和平团队 10:10-10:35 AI 重构硬件创新边际 李媛媛 - 出门问问联合创始人 AI 芯片与模型工程融合云化趋势 10:35-11:00 李玉晨 - 无问芯穹 AI 云业务总裁 圆桌环节:AI主线,港美股海外市场如何投? 11:00-11:30 周 晶 - 华宝基金首席投资官 王康宁 - 毕盛投资(新加坡)首席投资官 吴信坤 - 国泰海通海外策略首席分析师 秦和平 - 国泰海通海外科技首席分析师 Agent 与互联网:模型,MCP 与应用技术节奏 10:00-11:00 特邀嘉宾 中国台湾及内地 COWOS 先进封装技术及产能进展 10:00-11:00 特邀嘉宾 模型技术拐点:从 Scaling law 到后 ...

国泰海通证券 712 秦和平 海外科技首席分析师 | 研究所 行业核心洞察 科技,无尽的前沿 价值主张 深度研究全球科技根目录公司 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。报告名称：模型与算力持续加速，AI产业强劲扩展；报告日 期：20250831；报告作者：秦和平S0880523110003；风险提示：地缘政治风险;AI技术发展未及预 期;消费复苏未及预期;行业竞争风险;政策监管风险。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 Property Hom 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听内容 扫码关注 星标不迷路 ...

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 肖群稀 机械首席分析师 行业核心洞察 人形机器人: 硬件先行、 算法定义、场景为王 价值主张 专注深度产业研究,从产业视角发掘长期投 资机会,寻找优质企业 年度代表作 phone Hom 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：2025年人形机器人产业投资9大要点；报告日 期：20250205；报告作者：肖群稀 S0880522120001；风险提示：技术进步速度低于预期，商业化 落地速度低于预期。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages in the current changing external environment and policy dynamics [3]. Macro Summary - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [3]. Cost Tracking - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan slightly depreciated, while the euro appreciated against the yuan [4]. - The shipping costs for various routes, including Europe, the U.S. East Coast, the U.S. West Coast, and Southeast Asia, have decreased year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive index of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1125.30, down 38.11% year-on-year and 2.07% month-on-month [4]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The U.S. restaurant industry saw a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.7 in July, down 0.3% from June [5]. - The U.S. housing market index in September was 32, down 21.95% year-on-year, with existing home inventory increasing by 15.67% year-on-year [5]. - U.S. wholesale sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month in July, while retail sales rose by 0.6% in August [5]. - The export volume of golf carts from China decreased by 5.85% month-on-month and 72.12% year-on-year in July [5]. - Motorcycle exports from China saw a month-on-month decline of 3.17% but a year-on-year increase of 24.42% in August [5]. Recent Activities - The article mentions various upcoming industry events and reports, including discussions on transportation, new energy, electronics, coal, agriculture, and home appliances [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slight recovery in thematic trading activity, with most hot themes transitioning from gains to losses, while the domestic semiconductor theme remains active. It emphasizes the focus on emerging technologies, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand as core lines of investment [1]. Thematic Summaries Theme 1: Domestic Computing Power - The capital market is accelerating financing for hard technology, with domestic AI chip company Moore Threads entering the IPO review stage, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for self-controlled AI chip investments. The development of artificial intelligence in China is moving towards large-scale commercialization, which will further drive investment demand in computing power infrastructure and accelerate the construction of the domestic computing power ecosystem. Recommended investments include domestic computing power companies benefiting from increasing penetration rates and AI application companies benefiting from improved model efficiency and reduced costs [2]. Theme 2: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing low-cost, high-reliability, and large-scale development driven by both supply and demand. It has become a key area of global technological competition, with low-orbit satellite frequency resources becoming scarce. Multiple satellite constellations in China are entering large-scale networking phases, with breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and large liquid rocket technology. The demand explosion, technological innovation, and scenario breakthroughs are creating opportunities for large-scale development in China's commercial aerospace industry. Recommended investments include rocket manufacturing, satellite payloads, and new infrastructure benefiting from increased transport capacity, as well as satellite communication, navigation, remote sensing, and space tourism [3]. Theme 3: Anti-Involution - An article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has pointed out that breaking "involution-style" competition is essential for achieving high-quality development in sectors like photovoltaics. The current release of capacity and significant increase in installed capacity in China's photovoltaic industry have led to a substantial decline in industry chain prices. The new energy sector, including energy storage, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, is expected to benefit from concentrated capacity release and improving demand trends. Recommended investments include energy storage, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as well as sectors like pig farming, papermaking, chemicals, and aviation facing demand constraints [4]. Theme 4: Embodied Intelligence - The Minister of Science and Technology has indicated that efforts are underway to accelerate the application of humanoid robots in various scenarios such as automotive manufacturing, logistics, and power inspection. Tesla is set to hold meetings related to its Optimus robot, while Yuzhu Technology is initiating listing guidance, and Zhiyuan plans to acquire a controlling stake in a listed company, accelerating capital operations and financing processes. The industry is poised for large-scale development, with various forms of robots being produced on a large scale in China. Recommended investments include core components benefiting from technological upgrades, such as sensors and actuators, as well as manufacturers capable of large-scale production [5].