Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation portfolios [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of equity: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.91% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.22% with a maximum drawdown of -7.97% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to April 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - As of May 2025, the report suggests a cautious approach to A-shares due to ongoing tariff impacts, recommending a "barbell strategy" focusing on stable cash flow assets and technology + domestic demand as key themes [5]. - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from a broad interest rate decline due to the central bank's monetary policy easing, with a focus on short-term securities and potential adjustments in long-term bonds [5]. - For US stocks, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies remains, with short-term fluctuations expected as the market reacts to tariff impacts on the US economy [5]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term opportunities due to easing tariffs and improving economic conditions [5]. - Indian stocks are anticipated to experience upward movement due to economic resilience and foreign capital inflows [5][6].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Changes - The easing of US-China tariff tensions has led to a rapid steepening of the bond market, with limited short-term adjustment space expected [1][2] - Long-term bond yields are unlikely to fully recover from previous declines, with resistance levels identified at 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.95% for 30-year bonds [2][3] - The current monetary policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a significant amount of liquidity in the market, enhancing the attractiveness of long bonds [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Market Outlook - The bond yield curve is anticipated to steepen during the recovery period, with short-term rates benefiting from the current liquidity conditions [3] - The market's sensitivity to trade tensions has decreased, suggesting that future fluctuations in trade policy may have limited impact on risk appetite [3][4] - Investment strategies should focus on mid to short-duration bonds, credit bonds, and leveraged strategies as the market adjusts [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Perspective - The narrative surrounding long-term bond yields is shifting towards a more confident outlook, with expectations for lower yield limits being revised upwards [4] - The previous strategy of "buying every dip" may reach its limits, indicating a need for a more cautious approach in bond market investments [4] - Historical trends suggest a transition towards a strategy focused on bond selection rather than timing, favoring mid to short-duration bonds with higher carry [4]

Group 1: Mechanical Industry - The mechanical industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity from 2024 to Q1 2025, with revenue and profit growth in semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and robotics [1][2] - In 2024, the mechanical industry is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and a net profit of 123.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [1] - By Q1 2025, the total revenue is expected to reach 522.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of 38.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [1] Group 2: Robotics and Semiconductor Equipment - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see significant profit growth, particularly in force sensors, bearings, and tendon drive components [2][3] - The transition from "multi-sensor fusion" to "body intelligence" in humanoid robots will create new demands for hardware and software technologies [3] - The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from domestic substitution and capital expenditure, with significant room for improvement in self-sufficiency due to geopolitical influences [3][4] Group 3: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is expected to maintain high prosperity levels, driven by domestic demand and supportive fiscal policies [4] - Domestic sales of excavators are projected to continue increasing, despite some trade friction risks in exports [4] Group 4: Game Industry - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery, with revenue growth starting from Q2 2024 and a significant increase in profits by Q1 2025 [6][8] - In 2024, the total revenue for the gaming industry reached 93.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, while net profit decreased by 50% due to a drop in profit margins [7] - By Q1 2025, the gaming industry revenue is expected to reach 26.719 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with net profit reaching 3.482 billion yuan, reflecting a strong recovery [8] Group 5: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is seeing significant profit concentration among leading battery manufacturers, with overall revenue in 2024 reaching 1.755 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [11][12] - By Q1 2025, the lithium battery sector is projected to achieve a revenue of 414.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.75%, with net profit reaching 28.717 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.11% [13] Group 6: Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to show strong performance, with overall revenue and net profit in 2024 increasing by 6% and 9%, respectively [15] - By Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are projected to increase by 14% and 22%, respectively, driven by domestic demand and export opportunities [15][16] Group 7: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with innovative drugs driving growth in the pharmaceutical segment [19][20] - In 2024, the overall revenue for the pharmaceutical sector is expected to decline by 1.5%, while net profit is projected to decrease by 12.5% [20][21] Group 8: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector is witnessing a decline in profitability, with gross margins reaching a historical low of 13.8% in 2024 [25][26] - The sector is expected to stabilize in 2025, with improvements in gross margins as land acquisition costs decrease [25][27] Group 9: Coal Industry - The coal sector is facing significant pressure, with prices expected to reach a turning point in May 2025 [32][34] - The average selling price of self-produced coal is projected to decline by 10.9% in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, impacting overall profitability [33] Group 10: ETF Holdings - Institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings in ETFs, with a 38.8% year-on-year growth, reaching 1.54 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [36][37] - The proportion of state-owned funds in ETF holdings has also increased, indicating a shift in investment strategies [36][37]

风险提示：关税政策超预期调整；流动性超预期收紧；经济修复速度显著提升；债券供给超预期放量。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月12日发布的 国债期货的双顶形态意味着什么——国债期货周度跟踪 唐元懋 ，资格证书编号： S0880524040002 报告导读： 2025 年 4 月至今，多空因素交织下国债期货形成双顶雏形，参考历史来看， 双顶雏形后或显示多头动能边际减弱，短期内国债期货或延续震荡格局，关键支撑位位于 前期"颈线"处。 从技术形态看，2025年4月以来国债期货逐步形成"双顶雏形"。 2025年4月3日美国宣布对华加征对等关 税后，受到避险情绪影响，国债期货连续两日跳空高开，T2506 、TL2506于4月7日创下3月以来的阶段 性高点109.18元、121.80元，随后市场对刺激政策逐步展开博弈，止盈情绪升温，国债期货震荡回落；4 月24日超长特别国债发行落地，叠加次日MLF超额续作5000亿，债市情绪重新走强，国债期货逐步回升 至4月7日高点附近，但并未形成突破。从技术形态看，当前国债期货已形成"双顶雏形"，其中两次冲高回 落的波峰（4月7日与当前）构成双顶雏形，4月24日低位则形成颈线支撑，且此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beauty and personal care sector presents significant structural opportunities, with platforms extending promotional periods and simplifying gameplay, while domestic brands focus on product innovation and operational optimization, leading to potential multi-point explosions in brand performance [1]. Group 1: Promotional Strategies - Major platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and JD have synchronized their promotional start dates to May 13, intensifying competition for traffic [2]. - Tmall has shifted from a discount model to a direct reduction strategy, emphasizing integrated content and commerce, with pre-sale activities starting earlier than in previous years [2]. - Douyin aims for larger scale and better product experiences, with promotional phases also starting earlier than last year [2]. - JD has introduced surprise days during its promotional period, starting significantly earlier than in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Brand Support and Subsidies - Taobao Tmall has partnered with Xiaohongshu to enhance brand visibility and effectiveness through a new advertising feature, alongside a substantial subsidy program totaling 3 billion yuan [3]. - JD's initiatives include the "Jing Chuang Double Hundred Plan" and "Leading Plan," which allocate over 10 billion yuan in traffic and cash to support merchants during the promotional period [3]. - Douyin has introduced various merchant support policies, including commission-free product cards and additional traffic incentives for beauty products [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Brand Performance - The shift in platform strategies indicates a transition from low-price models to a focus on balancing user experience and merchant growth, with domestic brands leveraging product innovation to achieve significant market performance [4]. - The emphasis on single product explosions and profit recovery for brands suggests a positive outlook for leading brands during promotional events [4].

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel increased significantly, with the number of travelers and spending up by 6.4% and 8.0% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 161.0% and 153.1% of 2019 levels, although the average spending per traveler was only at 95.1% of 2019 levels, indicating a need for improvement in consumer spending willingness [2][3] - The performance of the entertainment sector, including live performances and movies, showed a decline, with the number of performances down by 2.52% year-on-year and daily box office revenue for films down by 51.0% compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.7% in 30 major cities, with first-tier and second-tier cities experiencing increases of 24.4% and 14.0%, respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 2.7% [3] - The sales growth of new homes turned positive, while the growth rate of second-hand home sales decreased on a month-on-month basis [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Passenger car sales continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 7% driven by ongoing policy support and new car launches, although daily sales were below previous expectations, and dealer inventory pressure increased [3] Group 4: Manufacturing and Construction - The construction demand in the real estate sector remained weak, leading to a decline in the prices of construction materials, with the cement price index dropping by 1.9% week-on-week [4] - Manufacturing activity showed signs of seasonal slowdown as the holiday approached, with a significant increase in job postings, indicating a strong hiring intention despite the overall slowdown in manufacturing operations [4]

报告导读： HBM 是 AI 、高性能计算、智能驾驶等的核心产品， DRAM 堆叠工艺的发展 尤为关键。目前海外 HBM 龙头公司 SK Hynix 已迭代到 HBM3E ，我国较之仍有不小的 差距，我们认为产业链相关的设备、材料公司将持续发展、力争不断实现技术突破。 投资建议。 HBM（高频宽存储器，High Bandwidth Memory）是将DRAM通过先进封装技术堆叠而成， 与GPU整合于同一块芯片上；目前AI服务器是HBM最重要的市场，未来智能驾驶汽车市场也会大量采用 HBM。我国HBM产业不断发展，目前能实现规模量产的是HBM2、HBM2E，有望在2026E/2027E分别 实现HBM3、HBM3E突破。虽然我国的HBM产业发展较海外龙头公司落后较多，但我们认为伴随下游 Fab、设计公司、设备公司、材料公司的共同努力，本土HBM产业会不断向前发展，其中核心之一便是键 合堆叠环节的突破。 SK Hynix为全球HBM龙头。 根据SemiWiki援引Trendforce数据，2023年全球HBM市场SK Hynix、 Samsung、Micron的市占分别为55%、41%、3%。SK Hynix 2 ...

风险提示： 贸易局势不确定性，国内稳增长政策不及预期 。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 消费和基建有韧性 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【 海外科技 】谷歌发布Gemini 2.5 Pro I/O，特朗普政府拟取消AI扩散框架 投资建议： 维持行业增持评级，推荐 AI 算力方向、云厂商方向、 AI 应用方向、 AI 社交方向以及 AI 注 入周期下的中概巨头。 谷歌发布 Gemini2.5 Pro （ I/O 版）， AI 助力前端开发与复杂编程。 为预热 I/O 全球开发者大会，谷 歌发布" I/O Edition "特别预览版 Gemini 2.5 Pro 模型，专门面向开发者群体，主要优化了日常编程任 务，支持创建基于智能体的工作流程。谷歌此次更新的一大亮点在于，只需通过一条提示即可构建完整、 可交互的网页应用或模拟程序。谷歌表示，用户可以输入视觉模式或主题性提示，直接转化为可运行的代 码，这显著降低了设计导向型开发者或创新团队的入门门槛。在 WebDev Arena 基准测试中， Gemini 2.5 Pro 凭借出色的前端开发能力位居榜首。模型在视频 ...

Macro - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, emphasizing the balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system [1][2] - The report highlights the need to lower bank funding costs and suggests an imminent adjustment in deposit rates, reflecting a focus on stabilizing bank margins [1] - The central bank's easing cycle is expected to continue, with potential for further interest rate cuts and structural tools if economic pressures increase [1][2] Strategy - The Chinese A/H stock market is anticipated to rise further, with a positive outlook following recent market corrections and recovery [5][6] - The report notes that investor sentiment has improved regarding the economic situation and government responses to external pressures, creating a favorable environment for market growth [5] - Key sectors for investment include technology, consumer goods, and cyclical industries, with a focus on domestic demand and supply constraints [6][7] Non-Banking - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a plan for the high-quality development of public funds, focusing on enhancing long-term returns and investor trust [16][17] - The plan aims to shift the focus of fund management from scale to performance, promoting innovation and efficiency within the industry [16][17] - The restructuring of fund management tasks is expected to influence industry competition and lead to a concentration of resources among leading firms [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the recovery of CPI in April is primarily driven by seasonal factors such as food and travel prices, while uncertainties from trade friction and weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are constraining price elasticity. Consequently, there is room for monetary policy to continue its efforts in price regulation in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - Food price recovery is supported by supply constraints from imports and seasonal factors, with beef prices rising due to drought in South America and a seasonal switch leading to higher fruit and vegetable prices [2]. - Strong travel demand during the Labor Day holiday resulted in a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal expectations, while year-on-year growth remained at 0.5% [2]. PPI Analysis - In April, the PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, indicating a persistent mismatch between supply and demand [3]. - The delay in the peak construction season, influenced by fiscal policies prioritizing debt repayment and capital injection into small banks, has affected the PPI recovery pace [3]. - The main drag on PPI comes from upstream raw materials and durable consumer goods, exacerbated by trade friction and weak coal demand following the end of the heating season [3]. Policy Implications - The article emphasizes a heightened focus on price regulation by policymakers, with the central bank's unexpected rate cuts reflecting this priority [3]. - The article notes that the uncertainties from trade friction and the weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are significant constraints on price elasticity, suggesting that there is still potential for monetary policy to exert influence in the coming months [3].