Lumentum披露已收到一笔数亿美元的CPO扩展订单，预计将在2027年下半年出货。同时，OCS业务积压订单超过4亿美元，有望比预期提前两个季度 达到单季1亿美元规模。大摩将Lumentum目标价从350美元上调至420美元，但维持与大盘持平评级。分析师指出，尽管公司基本面强劲，但股价已反 映2027日历年每股收益约20美元的乐观预期，当前25倍市盈率估值已较为充分。 光通信巨头Lumentum交出了一份堪称"炸裂"的第二财季成绩单，不仅在传统指标上全面超预期，更在AI算力基础设施的关键技术路径上给出了实锤指 引，获得数亿美元规模订单。这家公司正在兑现华尔街看涨者的预期，尽管估值已经充分反映乐观预期。 摩根士丹利分析师Meta A Marshall和Mary B Lenox发布最新研报称，Lumentum第二财季非GAAP毛利率达到42.5%，较分析师预期的38.6%高出385 个基点，主要得益于产品组合优化和EML激光器定价提升。这一表现推动公司每股收益达到1.67美元，远超预期的1.38美元。 如果说当下的业绩由EML支撑，那么Lumentum的估值溢价则完全来自于对未来AI网络架构的押注——OCS和C ...

该公司还维持了今年利润增长7%至9%的指引。部分分析师此前预计的指引约为每股收益增长 6%至8%，新任首席执行官卢克·米尔斯为这一年设定了一个可能被超越的目标，其中抗癌药物 Blenrep有望提振收入。 葛兰素史克预计 2026 年营业额增长 3% 至 5%；核心营业利润增长 7% 至 9%；核心每股收 益增长 7% 至 9%。该公司预计到 2031 年销售额将超过 400 亿英镑。 葛兰素史克(GSK.US) 第四季度利润高于预期，这主要得益于其艾滋病(HIV)药物以及一款现已获批用 于治疗肺部疾病的哮喘药物。财报显示，葛兰素史克四季度营收达 86.2 亿英镑，同比增长 6.3%，超 出预期 1.7 亿英镑；调整后每股收益为 25.5 便士(约合 35 美分)，高于分析师的预期。 该公司经营活动产生的现金流为 89 亿英镑，自由现金流为 40 亿英镑。 在前CEO沃尔姆斯利执掌期间，葛兰素史克拆分了其消费者健康部门 Haleon，并进行了关键收 购以尝试增强其药物研发管线。尽管如此，米尔斯仍需向投资者证明，公司能够实现本十年末及 更长远时期的营收抱负。上个月，葛兰素史克同意以 22 亿美元的交易价格收购总部 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly has significantly outperformed market expectations in Q4 revenue and profit, driven by the explosive sales of GLP-1 weight loss drugs, indicating a strong competitive position against Novo Nordisk in the weight loss drug market [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4, Eli Lilly reported revenue of $19.3 billion, a 43% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $18 billion [5]. - Non-GAAP EPS for Q4 was $7.54, up 42% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $6.73 [5]. - The strong performance is attributed to the robust demand for diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss drug Zepbound, with Zepbound's total prescriptions surpassing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy [5]. Future Outlook - Eli Lilly projects 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, significantly above Wall Street's average expectation of $77.7 billion [7]. - Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $33.50 and $35.00, also exceeding analyst expectations of $33.08 [7]. - The company is leveraging its patent protection, aggressive capacity expansion, and upcoming oral formulations to maintain a competitive edge [7]. Key Products - Mounjaro and Zepbound together contributed over 60% of total revenue in Q4, with combined revenue exceeding $11.6 billion [9]. - Mounjaro's Q4 revenue reached $7.41 billion, a staggering 110% increase year-over-year, while Zepbound achieved $4.26 billion, a 123% increase [12]. Sales Strategy - Eli Lilly's growth is driven by volume, with global product sales increasing by 46% in Q4, offsetting a 5% decline in realized prices [12]. - In the U.S. market, sales volume surged by 50%, despite a 7% drop in actual prices, reflecting strategic pricing adjustments to expand patient access [12]. Market Position - Eli Lilly's optimistic outlook starkly contrasts with Novo Nordisk's warning of a potential 13% decline in sales due to intensified price competition [15]. - The company is expected to maintain over 20% growth in 2026, even with a high revenue base of $65.18 billion in 2025 [15]. R&D and Capacity Expansion - Eli Lilly is advancing its pipeline with a focus on convenient administration methods and expanding indications, including an oral weight loss drug awaiting regulatory approval [19]. - The company is investing heavily in production capacity, including a new injection facility in Pennsylvania and a $6 billion active pharmaceutical ingredient plant in Alabama [19]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin is reported at 82.5%, with a non-GAAP margin of 83.2%, benefiting from favorable product mix and improved production costs [20]. - R&D expenses increased by 26% to $3.8 billion, representing 20% of revenue, while SG&A expenses rose by 29% to $3.1 billion, also 20% of revenue [20].

分析师指出，尽管上周金价遭遇历史性单日暴跌，但这只是长期牛市中一次典型的技术性回调。自1971年以来的历次主要黄金牛市都曾经历多次大幅修 正，当前的下跌反而为投资者提供了难得的增持机会。支撑黄金长期走强的核心逻辑——地缘政治不确定性、央行持续购金及美元走弱预期——均未发生 改变。 尽管上周经历了历史性暴跌，但在市场观察人士看来，黄金市场的牛市远未终结。分析师普遍认为，近期的剧烈波动更像是长期上涨趋势中的暂时性回 调，而非结构性逆转，历史数据表明，此类修正往往是再次进场的契机。 机构策略师指出，尽管屏幕上闪烁着"估值过高"的信号， 但支撑金价的地缘政治紧张、贸易政策不确定性以及对债务的担忧并未消散。 多家投行分析 显示 ，当前的下跌并未破坏长期投资逻辑，反而可能是这一轮历史性牛市中的买入机会。 历史重演：牛市中的回调常态 AJ Bell投资总监Russ Mould在周一的报告中指出，黄金目前正处于自1971年以来的第三轮主要牛市中，而此前两次牛市都曾经历过多次大幅回调。 Mould分析称，1971年至1980年的牛市始于尼克松总统切断美元与黄金的联系，随后在美国赤字上升、石油冲击和通胀飙升的推动下，金价从每盎司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang refuted the notion that AI will replace software tools, calling it "illogical" and emphasizing the importance of using existing tools rather than reinventing them [1][3][4] Group 1: AI and Software Industry Dynamics - Huang highlighted that the computing industry is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from explicit programming to implicit programming, where users state goals and systems autonomously plan execution paths [4] - The recent launch of a legal automation tool by AI startup Anthropic triggered widespread panic selling in the software sector, leading to significant declines in major stock indices [3][5] - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF experienced a drop of 5.6%, marking a six-day losing streak with a cumulative decline of over 14% [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Major software companies, including Microsoft, faced scrutiny despite solid quarterly earnings, as investors focused on slowing cloud business growth and the return on AI capital expenditures [6] - The overall market sentiment has shifted from concerns about individual AI tools to a systemic reassessment of the software industry's business models, with only 67% of S&P 500 software companies exceeding revenue expectations during the earnings season [6] - Analysts have downgraded several software companies, citing concerns over seat compression and the narrative of "ambient coding" potentially capping industry valuation multiples [6]

Core Viewpoint - AMD's fourth-quarter earnings report disappointed the market, indicating that its progress in the AI sector has not met some investors' optimistic expectations [1] Financial Performance - AMD's Q4 sales increased by 34% to $10.3 billion, surpassing the average expectation of $9.7 billion [3] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.53, exceeding the analyst average estimate of $1.32 [3] - The company's first-quarter sales forecast is approximately $9.8 billion, with a fluctuation of $300 million, while analysts had an average estimate of $9.39 billion [3] Segment Performance - Data center revenue grew by 39% to $5.38 billion, exceeding the analyst average prediction of $4.97 billion [3] - PC-related sales rose by 34% to $3.1 billion, also above the average expectation of $2.89 billion [3] - Gaming revenue increased by 50% to $843 million, although it fell short of the market average expectation of $855 million [4] - Embedded business revenue grew by 2.9% to $950 million, below the market average expectation of $961 million [4] Market Dynamics - AMD has begun selling an older model chip to China, generating $390 million in revenue last quarter, with an expected $100 million this quarter [6] - The company anticipates that large deals with OpenAI and Oracle, along with overall demand for AI devices, could bring in hundreds of billions in new revenue [6] - AMD is seen as continuing to gain market share from Intel, which recently provided a disappointing forecast regarding supply constraints [7]

Core Viewpoint - The software industry is facing a "doomsday crisis" due to the impact of AI, with the S&P North American Software Index experiencing a 15% drop in January, the largest monthly decline since 2008, leading to panic selling among investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - The S&P North American Software Index has seen a continuous decline for three weeks, with a significant drop of 15% in January, marking the largest monthly decline since October 2008 [2]. - The panic intensified after AI startup Anthropic released a productivity tool for corporate lawyers, causing stock prices of legal software and publishing companies to plummet [2][7]. - The software sector's crisis is not limited to the stock market but is also affecting the private credit market, with software companies representing about 20% of the portfolios of Business Development Companies (BDCs), totaling approximately $100 billion [3][10]. Group 2: Private Credit Risks - The collapse of the SaaS sector poses risks not only to the equity market but also to the debt market, with BDCs being particularly sensitive to declines in software stock and credit valuations [10]. - As software company valuations plummet, BDCs face asset impairment pressures, leading to potential credit tightening that could further squeeze the growth space of already struggling software companies, creating a "death spiral" [6][12]. - Analysts warn that if AI causes significant disruption to corporate borrowers, the default rate in U.S. private credit could soar to 13% [13]. Group 3: Stress Testing and Asset Valuation - JPMorgan conducted stress tests on BDC portfolios, indicating that under a scenario where 33% of companies default, the tracked BDCs could face losses of $22 billion, reducing net asset value by 11% [14]. - In a more severe scenario with a 75% default rate, cumulative net losses could approach $50 billion, diluting book value by 24% [14]. - Specific loan assets are already showing signs of pressure, with significant discrepancies between secondary market prices and BDC book valuations for software loans [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - Emerson Electric (EMR.US) reported strong Q1 earnings, exceeding profit expectations while revenue met Wall Street forecasts [1][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $1.46, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.41 [1]. - Revenue reached $4.35 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.1%, aligning with analyst expectations [1]. - Net profit increased from $585 million ($1.02 per share) in the previous year to $605 million ($1.07 per share) [3]. Operational Highlights - Core orders grew by 9% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth [4]. - Net sales increased by 4% compared to the previous year, with core sales rising by 2% [4]. - Operating cash flow decreased by 10% to $699 million, while free cash flow fell by 13% to $602 million, attributed to working capital timing and higher interest expenses [4]. Shareholder Returns and Future Outlook - Emerson Electric plans to return approximately $2.2 billion to shareholders through $1 billion in stock buybacks and $1.2 billion in dividends [4]. - The company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.555 per share, payable on March 10 to shareholders on record as of February 13 [4]. - For fiscal year 2026, Emerson forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $6.40 and $6.55, with net sales expected to grow by about 5.5% due to sustained demand for automation technology in North America, India, the Middle East, and Africa [4]. Company Background - Founded in 1890, Emerson Electric has evolved from being North America's first fan manufacturer to a leader in the industrial automation sector through strategic acquisitions [4]. - The company operates in seven segments, offering a wide range of automation software, power tools, valves, instruments, and switches [4]. - Recently, Emerson divested its climate technology and consumer products businesses to focus more on industrial automation, aligning with long-term trends aimed at reducing accidents and enhancing manufacturing efficiency [4]. Market Position - Emerson Electric has a market capitalization of $85.53 billion, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and efficiency in the industrial products sector [5]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 37.65, close to a 10-year high, while its price-to-sales ratio is 4.78 and price-to-book ratio is 4.22, both near historical peaks [5].

财报显示，2026财年Q2营收6.655亿美元，同比暴增65%。AI业务成增长引擎，光断路开关(OCS)订单积压超4亿美元，共封装光学(CPO)新获数亿美 元订单。Q3指引更强劲：营收预计7.8-8.3亿美元，同比增长超85%。公司CEO强调，随着AI数据中心对带宽和能效要求的爆发式增长，Lumentum正 迎来其历史上最强劲的增长周期。 得益于光电路交换机（OCS）和共封装光学（CPO）的强劲需求，光模块巨头Lumentum不仅交出了一份营收利润双超预期的成绩单， 更给出了高达 85%同比增长的下季度指引 ，向市场证明其在AI算力基础设施中的关键地位。 2月3日，全球光学和光子技术龙头企业Lumentum Holdings公布了2026财年第二季度财务业绩。财报显示，截至2025年12月27日的季度内， 公司净营 收达到6.655亿美元，同比暴增65.5% ，触及指引区间高端；Non-GAAP营业利润率达到25.2%，同比扩张超过1700个基点，盈利能力大幅改善远超此 前预期。 CEO Michael Hurlston对业绩表现给予高度评价：" Lumentum实现了出色的第二季度表现，营收同比增长超65% ...

沃尔玛电商业务快速扩张，分析师预计年度销售额将达到约1400亿美元，去年该业务作为独立部门首次实现盈利。目前沃尔玛已成为亚马逊有力竞争对 手，市值仍远低于亚马逊的2.6万亿美元。值得一提的是，沃尔玛与伯克希尔哈撒韦是美国仅有的两家市值超过1万亿美元的非科技公司。 沃尔玛市值周二突破1万亿美元，成为首家达到这一里程碑的传统零售商，跻身此前由科技巨头主导的精英俱乐部。这家总部位于阿肯色州的零售巨头 过去两年股价涨幅超过一倍，表现优于标普500指数。 目前共有九家美国上市公司市值超过1万亿美元，其中沃尔玛与伯克希尔哈撒韦是美国仅有的两家市值超过1万亿美元的非科技公司，其余均为科技企 业。 摩根士丹利零售分析师Simeon Gutman表示，沃尔玛过去十年的变化"是我们见过的零售公司最深刻的转型"。他指出，沃尔玛与亚马逊的增长对竞争对 手构成挑战。 这一成就标志着沃尔玛十年转型的成功。该公司投入数百亿美元发展电商业务，目前已成为亚马逊的有力竞争对手。其在线业务去年首次实现盈利，预 计本月公布业绩时年度电商销售额将达到约1400亿美元。 沃尔玛股价周二收涨2.9%至127.71美元，市值达到1.018万亿美元。这一突破 ...