英伟达可能获得约70亿至125亿美元的额外收入，对应2026年非GAAP每股收益或提升约0.15至0.30美元。"利奥波德重申对英伟达 的"强力买入"评级，对AMD的"跑赢大盘"评级。 若顺利获得政府批准，英伟达计划于明年2月中旬起向中国市场交付其H200系列GPU。 据三位知情人士透露，这批GPU有望在农历新年前完成首批出货。其中两位消息人士表示，首批订单将主要依托现有库存，出货规模预 计为5000—10000块模组，对应约40000—80000颗H200芯片。 投资机构Raymond James公司认为，英伟达(NVDA.US)和AMD(AMD.US)可能从中国市场获得温和的增长潜力。 分析师西蒙·利奥波德在致客户报告中写道："目前仍存在多个不确定因素，难以精确评估最终结果，但在机会性情景下，我们预计AMD 可能获得约5亿至8亿美元的额外收入，非GAAP每股收益或提升约0.10至0.20美元; 知情人士指出，在取得政府审批后，英伟达将进一步扩充产能，相关产能订单将于2026年第二季度开始接受。 周一有报道称，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)正考虑采购4万至5万个AMD的MI308 AI加速器。利奥波德指出，阿里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, supports a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's inflation target once inflation stabilizes at 2%, suggesting a shift to a range-based target [1][4] Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent criticizes the current fixed inflation target and advocates for a more flexible range, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%, arguing that economic systems are complex and nonlinear [1][4] - He suggests the potential elimination of the "dot plot" tool used for guiding market expectations on interest rates, aiming to reduce market dependency on short-term predictions [3][4] - Bessent indicates that the new Federal Reserve chair may favor a reduction in the Fed's role, moving away from being the central focus of economic policy [3][4][6] Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Bessent labels quantitative easing as an "engine of inequality," asserting that it has artificially inflated asset prices and widened the wealth gap between asset holders and wage earners [5][6] - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations, contrasting current practices with historical norms where central banks would remit profits to the Treasury [5][6] Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent emphasizes the need for closer collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to support fiscal tightening [7] - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like providing investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy [7]

Core Viewpoint - Starfighters Space, a newly listed aerospace company, has experienced extreme stock price volatility, with a 371% surge followed by a nearly 60% drop, attributed to low float and speculative business prospects [1][3][5] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of Starfighters Space started trading at an IPO price of $3.59, reaching a high of $31.50 after a 371% increase on December 22, but then plummeting to $12.94 the following day, erasing most of the gains [3][5] - The company raised $40 million through its IPO, but its stock has been characterized by significant fluctuations, making it one of the most watched small-cap stocks in the market [5][7] Group 2: Factors Behind Volatility - The extreme stock price movements are primarily due to the company's low public float, with only 11.1 million shares available out of a total of 21.7 million shares, leading to disproportionate price changes from moderate trading volumes [7] - Financially, Starfighters Space has not recorded any revenue in the past three years and reported a loss of $7.9 million for 2024, making it a speculative investment reliant on future expectations rather than current performance [7][9] Group 3: Business Model and Market Position - Starfighters Space operates the world's only commercial supersonic fleet, consisting of seven Lockheed F-104 Starfighters, and is based at NASA's Kennedy Space Center [9] - The company's core project, "StarLaunch," aims to deploy satellites and small payloads into space using its supersonic jets, while also providing training and testing services for defense and private sectors [9] - The growing interest in aerospace investments is reflected in the market, with other space companies also seeing significant stock performance, indicating a broader trend that may benefit Starfighters Space [9]

美国上市ETF今年迄今已吸引1.4万亿美元资金流入，打破去年创下的年度流入纪录。同时，超过1000只新产品进入市场，创下历史新高。ETF市场交易 量同样创下年度新纪录。上一次三项指标同时创纪录是在2021年，次年风险资产大幅下挫，标普500指数暴跌19%。 美国ETF行业在2025年创下前所未有的三重纪录，资金流入、新产品发行数量和交易量全部刷新历史最高水平，这一万亿美元级别的资金狂潮正推动着 规模达13万亿美元的美国ETF市场进入全新发展阶段。 周三，据彭博数据显示，美国上市ETF今年迄今已吸引1.4万亿美元资金流入，打破去年创下的年度流入纪录。同时，超过1000只新产品进入市场，创 下历史新高。ETF市场交易量同样创下年度新纪录。 这一"完美表现"引发市场对ETF热潮可持续性的担忧。彭博智库高级ETF分析师Eric Balchunas表示，考虑到今年ETF表现过于完美，投资者应为明年 可能出现的市场调整做好准备。 上一次三项指标同时创纪录是在2021年，次年风险资产大幅下挫，标普500指数暴跌19%。 杠杆单股ETF热潮暗藏风险 杠杆单股ETF在过去几年中爆炸式增长，基于期权的基金占今年发行量的40%。 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy experienced a significant growth of 4.3% in Q3, marking the fastest expansion in two years, primarily driven by strong household consumption [1][4][3] - Consumer spending, as the largest pillar of the U.S. economy, increased by 3.5% in Q3, up from 2.5% in Q2, indicating robust consumer willingness despite borrowing cost pressures [6] Investment Performance - Non-residential investment continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed from 7.3% in the previous quarter to 2.8% [6] - Residential investment declined by 5.1% in Q3, consistent with the decline in Q2, indicating a drag on overall economic performance [6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% in Q3, aligning with expectations but remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4][9] - The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, with officials hesitant to significantly lower borrowing costs due to persistent inflation concerns [9] Future Outlook - The economic report suggests that despite the challenges posed by the government shutdown and the potential impact on Q4 growth, there is cautious optimism for 2026, driven by anticipated tax refunds and possible changes in tariff policies [8] - Analysts predict a moderate rebound in the economy next year, contingent on these factors [8]

Group 1: Policy Changes and Economic Impact - Trump's administration is reshaping the flow of capital in the U.S. economy through aggressive policy changes, including deregulation of banks and a shift in funding from renewable energy to traditional sectors [1][3] - The "Big Beautiful" bill and subsequent regulatory adjustments signal a redirection of funds away from renewable energy projects towards pipelines, cryptocurrencies, and traditional finance [3] - The relaxation of capital rules for banks is expected to release up to $219 billion in capital for major banks, allowing them to invest more in government-backed assets [4] Group 2: Housing Market and Privatization - A controversial proposal aims to end government control over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, leading to significant stock price increases for these entities [6] - The privatization discussions are complicated by the Treasury's $360 billion preferred equity stake in these companies, raising concerns about potential increases in borrowing costs for consumers [8] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets - The Trump administration's new stance on digital assets includes the signing of the GENIUS Act, which provides a legal framework for stablecoins, potentially expanding the market from $310 billion to $4 trillion by 2030 [9] - Major banks, including JPMorgan, are actively entering the stablecoin market, while concerns arise about the potential outflow of deposits from small banks to stablecoins [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Changes - The "Big Beautiful" bill has led to the cancellation or postponement of $29.3 billion worth of clean energy projects, as the administration shifts focus towards fossil fuels and nuclear energy [10] - Companies in the clean energy sector are facing significant challenges, including layoffs and project cancellations, as federal support for renewable energy diminishes [10] Group 5: Retirement Savings and Alternative Investments - A new executive order aims to unlock $13 trillion in retirement savings by encouraging investment in alternative assets, which could significantly benefit the private equity sector [11] - This shift may lead to increased access for ordinary investors to financial products previously limited to seasoned investors, despite warnings about potential risks [11]

周二，现货白银首次突破70美元/盎司，日内最高涨近3.7%，现货黄金盘中逼近4500美元、涨超1%。在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美联储进 一步降息的预期推动下，今年以来，金价累涨超过三分之二，银价年内涨约140%，涨势更为凌厉。 在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美国可能进一步降息的预期推动下，黄金和白银价格双双上涨，刷新历史新高。 纽约时间周二，现货白银日内最高涨幅3.7%，最高达到每盎司71.58美元，创历史新高，这也是白银首次突破每盎司70美元。 黄金差一点就突破每盎司4500美元，最高至4499.85美元，创下历史新高，日内涨幅最高达1.27%。铂金和钯金价格也同步上涨。 交易员押注，美联储在已经连续三次降息之后，明年还将再次降息，这将对不产生利息收益的贵金属形成利好。 ETF的强劲买盘是推动金价大幅上涨的主要动力之一。今年以来，全球最大贵金属ETF——道富集团旗下的SPDR Gold Trust持仓量已增长超过 五分之一。 Muthoot Fincorp首席经济学家表示，过去几个月黄金ETF的资金流入，主要来自散户投资者，而非机构投资者。他指出，由于散户资金黏性较 低，价格波动性仍将维持在较高水平。 此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports re-evaluating the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% once inflation steadily declines to this level, suggesting a potential range adjustment to 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% [1][3][4] Group 1 - Bessent acknowledges the public's concern over living costs, attributing the high prices to the Biden administration [1][7] - He emphasizes that discussions about adjusting the inflation target should only occur after achieving and maintaining the 2% target, as changing the target prematurely could imply a tendency to "loosen" the target whenever inflation exceeds a certain level [4][6] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for November, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% over the past 12 months [4][6] Group 2 - Bessent highlights the pressure faced by American households regarding affordability, a sentiment reflected in the recent election outcomes [6][7] - He notes that while some prices, including energy, have risen, there are observable trends indicating a decline in prices, particularly in rent, which had previously surged due to increased illegal immigration [7]

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that the AI supercycle will continue until 2026, but warns that the risk-reward balance is becoming less favorable [1][2] Group 1: AI Supercycle and Market Dynamics - The costs associated with OpenAI are expected to become apparent in the second half of 2026, leading to increased market volatility due to rising concerns over debt financing for AI development [2] - Citi remains optimistic about companies in the AI ecosystem, particularly Nvidia (NVDA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US) [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Insights - The biggest positive surprise is anticipated from the analog chip sector, which is expected to improve in 2026 due to low inventory levels, slow supply growth, and depressed profit margins [2] - Microchip Technology (MCHP.US) is highlighted as a preferred stock, with significant potential for upward revisions in sales and profit margins [2] - Other stocks rated as "buy" include Broadcom, Micron Technology, Texas Instruments (TXN.US), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US), and Analog Devices (ADI.US) [2] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Citi projects that Microchip Technology's earnings per share (EPS) will increase more than fourfold, from $0.24 in Q3 2025 to an expected $1.33 in Q4 2027 [3] - Texas Instruments' EPS is expected to grow by 77%, from $1.20 in Q1 2026 to an anticipated $2.12 in Q3 2027 [4] Group 4: Competitive Analysis - Citi expresses a preference for Synopsys (SNPS.US) over Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US), citing Synopsys' stronger potential for operating margin expansion due to cost-cutting measures and a higher proportion of software business [4]

周二，Baird分析师Colin Sebastian将Meta目标价从820美元小幅下调至815美元，但重申对该股的"跑赢大盘"(Outperform)评级，并表示当 前或是"择机买入"的时点。以周一收盘价661.5美元计算，其最新目标价仍意味着约23%的上涨空间。 尽管近期市场情绪承压，Baird分析师仍看好Meta Platforms(META.US)的中长期表现，认为人工智能(AI)推进与变现机会将为股价提供进一步上行空间。 Sebastian指出，Meta多空博弈仍在持续，短期情绪可能面临进一步波动，但与三个月前相比，市场对公司的隐含预期已更趋平衡，投资者可 把握阶段性回调进行布局。 不过，Sebastian对明年走势更为乐观。他看好Meta即将推出的新一代AI模型，认为有望提升公司AI能力；在收入端，广告业务仍具增长潜 力，AI将提升广告相关性，且包括WhatsApp在内的平台首次引入广告，为变现打开新空间。 Sebastian表示："我们认为，围绕Meta的分歧情绪可能延续至2026年初，尤其是对中长期利润率路径仍存疑问。但当前市场的负面倾向或已 略显过度，明年随着叙事改善，股价有望再度转向积极。 ...