德银追踪的纽交所保证金债务数据显示，从4月底到9月底的五个月内，投资者杠杆激增32.4%，这一速度仅次于 2000年初互联网泡沫顶峰和2020年8月疫情后刺激期。德银表示，这些历史时点无一例外都是投资风险资产 的"糟糕入场点"。更值得警惕的是，当前杠杆是在历史高位基础上加速——保证金债务占美国名义GDP的比例接 近2021年三季度的历史峰值。 德银认为，市场情绪已从健康的看涨转向了非理性的狂热。其中最关键的证据是投资者借贷买入股票的速度。 在最近五个月里，我们看到了投资者为购买美股而进行的、历史性的快速再杠杆……其速度超过了1999年、2007年和 2021年期间的再杠杆化。唯一比当前增速更快的时期，只有在2000年1月至3月以及2020年新冠刺激后的反弹中出现过。 | | Top 10 5-month increases in NYSE Margin Debt, since 1997 | | --- | --- | | | 5 months ending in: 5-Month Increase in NYSE Margin Debt | | 2000-03-31 | 54.4% | | 2000-02-2 ...

大摩研究发现，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数出现极端共振（波动超1.25个标准差）时，可预测美元未来6个月走势。两大做空美元信号："金发姑 娘"情景（股市涨、美元和美债跌）成功率83%，平均跌3.3%，英镑表现最佳；"全面上涨"情景（三者齐涨）成功率73%，平均跌2.7%，澳元领涨。 2025年已出现多次此类信号，显示市场波动处历史高位。 摩根士丹利最新研究指出，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数三者出现极端"共振"时，往往预示美元强势周期即将反转。 10月20日，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，当标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率出现极端"共振"时，美元在未来6个月内往往呈现可预测的走 势模式。 该行策略师Molly Nickolin等指出，通过分析过去25年中，标普500指数、10年期美债收益率和美元指数三者同时发生极端波动（超过1.25个标准差）的 交易日，发现两个明确指向美元在未来六个月内走弱的强力信号。 该行称，历史数据表明，在"金发姑娘"情景(股市大涨超过1.25个标准差、美元和美债收益率同时下跌超过1.25个标准差)，以及"全面上涨"情景（标普 500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三 ...

作为越南第二大上市地产商，Novaland被指控通过发行1.5万亿越南盾企业债等方式，将资金通过复杂流程最终输送给关联公司Nova Homes使 用，且部分注册资本被查出并不存在。 检查发现，Novaland集团及其三家子公司在发行债券中存在违规行为。 触发本轮抛售的直接原因是越南政府监察总署于周五发布的一份调查报告。据当地媒体报道，该报告覆盖了2015年1月至2023年6月期间的债券发行 情况，详细披露了包括银行和房地产公司在内的发债主体存在的"多项违规行为"，问题涵盖资金挪用、信披违规、本息逾期支付等。 Novaland成调查焦点，两案件移交公安部 在此次调查中，地产开发商Novaland及其关联公司成为了监管关注的中心。监察总署在报告中指出，已将两起涉及Novaland及其子公司的企业债违 规案件移交公安部展开进一步调查。 Novaland 是越南第二大上市房地产公司，在胡志明市证券交易所（HOSE）上市， 属于 VN30 指数成分股（越南市值最大的 30 家上市公司）。 截 至 2025 年，其市场份额约为 8%，在越南房地产行业中排名第三，仅次于 Vingroup 和 Dat Xanh Group。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is characterized by significant risks across mainstream assets, including high U.S. government debt, narrow corporate bond spreads, elevated U.S. stock valuations, and soaring gold prices, despite a prevailing "buy everything" sentiment in the market [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Risks - U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the safe-haven appeal of sovereign bonds [3]. - Corporate bonds are offering insufficient risk compensation due to historically low credit spreads [3]. - U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, indicating substantial potential for market corrections [3][11]. - Gold has experienced a vertical rise, but the risks associated with chasing high prices are significant [3][11]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Recent data shows a massive outflow of $24.6 billion from cash assets into risk assets, with the stock market attracting $28.1 billion, including a record $10.4 billion inflow into tech stocks [4]. - The gold market has seen a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical peak [6]. - The Chinese stock market experienced its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, totaling $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite under the backdrop of interest rate cuts [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a "BIG" investment strategy, focusing on Bonds, International markets, and Gold [12]. - In the bond sector, the company advocates for long positions in long-term U.S. Treasuries, predicting a drop in 30-year Treasury yields below 4% due to expected Fed rate cuts and the deflationary impact of AI on the labor market [13]. - The international market outlook remains positive, with expectations for the Hang Seng Index to exceed 33,000 points and a projected 9% growth in global EPS over the next 12 months, indicating more attractive valuations outside the U.S. [15]. - The company is highly bullish on gold, predicting prices could surpass $6,000 per ounce by next spring, despite current high allocations among fund managers being relatively low [16].

尽管AI基础设施投资在名义金额上创下新高，但与历史技术周期相比并不夸张。当前美国AI投资占GDP比重尚不足1%，历史上，铁路、电气化、IT等技 术周期的投资高峰占GDP比重为2-5%。 近期，AI领域的巨额资本开支引发了市场对其可持续性的担忧。高盛最新研报明确揭示， 当前AI投资规模远未过热，这一投资水平具备可持续性， 这 意味着AI基础设施建设的宏观故事依然稳健。 10月19日，高盛最新研报认为，AI投资规模并不过大，当前技术背景仍然⽀持AI资本⽀出，而且AI相关投资占美国GDP的比例目前远低于历史上其他 技术周期。 同时，他们预计，AI带来的生产力提升将为美国企业带来8万亿美元的资本收入，远超当前和可预见的AI投资总额。 AI投资热潮可持续 自2023年中以来，AI基础设施投资持续加速。仅2025年，公开美企在AI相关基础设施上的收入增量约3000亿美元投资规模。美国国家账户数据显示， AI相关支出年化增速较2022年提升了2770亿美元。 自9月以来，OpenAI宣布了一系列重大投资协议：与Oracle达成3000亿美元合作、获得英伟达1000亿美元投资、与AMD战略合作部署6GW GPU算 力、与Br ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is redefining the valuation of Bitcoin mining companies, shifting focus from mining revenue to their AI infrastructure value, with funds tracking listed mining companies outperforming Bitcoin itself [1][3]. Group 1: Valuation Shift - Bitcoin mining companies are transitioning into technology infrastructure providers, leveraging their existing power grid access to supply immediate power to AI data centers, thus breaking free from the cryptocurrency cycle [3][4]. - Funds tracking listed mining companies have surged over 150% this year, significantly outpacing Bitcoin's 14% increase, with companies like Cipher Mining and IREN Ltd. seeing stock price increases of approximately 300% and 500% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Power Supply Advantage - U.S. Bitcoin mining companies possess around 6.3 GW of operational capacity and 2.5 GW under construction, making them the fastest and lowest-risk option for AI companies seeking power [4][6]. - The existing power resources of these mining companies are becoming increasingly valuable, especially as the U.S. faces a projected 45 GW power shortfall for data centers between 2025 and 2028 [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Transformations - Cipher Mining signed a $3 billion hosting agreement with Fluidstack, indicating a significant blurring of lines between crypto mining and AI [5]. - Bitdeer Technologies plans to convert its major mining sites into AI data centers, projecting over $2 billion in annual revenue by 2026 [5]. Group 4: Economic Pressures and Industry Response - The ongoing deterioration of Bitcoin mining economics, exacerbated by last year's halving event, has prompted mining companies to seek alternative revenue streams [7][8]. - Companies like Riot Platforms and IREN have indicated they will not expand mining capacity, viewing AI and HPC as complementary alternatives to traditional mining [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Blackstone has elevated AI risk assessment to the highest priority in investment decisions, warning that traditional industries may face significant disruption from AI technologies [2][3][5]. Group 1: AI Disruption Risks - Blackstone's President Jonathan Gray warns that Wall Street investors are underestimating the potential of AI to render entire industries obsolete [2][5]. - The company has mandated that all investment teams must outline the impact of AI on their investment memorandums, focusing on how AI affects business models in sectors like accounting, legal, and data processing [3][4]. - Gray compares the disruption caused by AI to the fate of New York taxi medallions, which lost 80% of their value due to the rise of ride-sharing apps, highlighting the rapid changes AI can bring to traditional business models [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Blackstone is actively reassessing both new transactions and existing portfolio companies in light of AI risks, particularly in sectors vulnerable to AI-driven competition [3][6]. - Despite recognizing the risks, Blackstone is also positioning itself to capitalize on AI opportunities, investing heavily in utility companies that power data centers and repositioning industrial portfolio companies to sell products to AI infrastructure providers [6]. - Gray notes that while AI may cause economic disruption, it could also lead to significant productivity gains and the creation of trillions of dollars in new enterprise wealth, urging teams not to overlook AI-related opportunities [6].

摩根士丹利最新研报表明，对于甲骨文投资者日披露三大关键利好，包括新签大额合同、上调2030财年营收增长目标，并首次给出强劲 的每股收益复合年增长率，他们认为需持谨慎乐观态度。尽管公司提供了更多业务细节，但几个核心问题仍未得到明确答复，市场 的"将信将疑"态度或将持续。 近日，甲骨文投资者日释放数项重磅消息：包括一系列大订单，上调了本就很高的2030财年营收收入增长目标以及每股收益复合年增 长率。然而，盘后股价反应平淡，甲骨文并未能让市场完全买账。 摩根士丹利公布的研报表明， 对于甲骨文持谨慎乐观的态度 。虽然其业务增长势头强劲，但公司未明确整体利润率目标和巨额资本支 出计划，潜在不确定性是主要担忧。 财务远期目标大幅上调，但近期增长不及预期 报告指出， 甲骨文在投资者日上调的业绩预期主要体现在远期目标上 。公司将2030财年营收目标从此前的约2000亿美元大幅上调至 约2250亿美元，年复合增长率达31%（2025-2030财年），同时将非GAAP每股收益目标定为21美元，年复合增长率约28%。 从具体财年来看，2027财年营收目标为850亿美元，较市场预期高出约3.4%；2028财年为1300亿美元，领先约 ...

据德银，黄金在全球央行"外汇+黄金"储备中的份额已从今年6月底的24%迅速上升至当前的30%。在同一时期，美元的份额则从43%下 降至40%。而若要使其份额追平美元，金价在现有持仓量不变的情况下需要升至每盎司5790美元。 报告进一步提出了一个价格推演：如果黄金要与美元在上述储备类别中平分秋色，其价格需要达到5790美元/盎司。在该情景下，假 设央行黄金持有量保持不变，黄金和美元将各自占据全球"外汇+黄金"储备的36%。 德意志银行的分析特别强调，其研究侧重于黄金在"外汇加黄金"储备中的占比，而非在央行总资产中的占比。报告认为，这是一个更 具相关性的分析维度，因为"外汇加黄金"储备是央行能够动用来捍卫本国货币的、以外币计价的资产。 全球央行对黄金的青睐并未因价格上涨而减弱，反而愈发强烈。德意志银行援引世界黄金协会在今年2月25日至5月20日进行的调查 称，计划增加自身黄金储备的央行比例已从去年的29%升至43%。 更为关键的是，市场管理者对整体趋势的判断也高度一致。调查发现，高达95%的受访储备管理者预计，全球央行的黄金总持有量将 在未来12个月内上升，这一比例远高于去年的81%。 来源：华尔街见闻 据追风交 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dalio reinforces his bullish stance on gold, viewing it as the only asset that does not rely on counterparty credit, and as the most fundamental form of currency, while fiat currency is essentially debt [1][3][7] Group 1: Gold as a Core Asset - Gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasuries in investment portfolios, becoming a risk-free asset for investors [3][10] - Dalio suggests that investors should allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, highlighting its effectiveness as a diversification tool [3][19] - The strategic value of gold is becoming more pronounced in the current financial environment [3][10] Group 2: Understanding Gold's Value - Dalio emphasizes the need to shift the mindset regarding gold, asserting that it should be viewed as money rather than merely a metal [6][7] - He argues that gold's value is intrinsic and does not depend on any counterparty's payment promise, unlike fiat currencies which are based on debt [7][13] - Historical trends show that debt-based currencies are losing value compared to gold, especially during financial crises [9][12] Group 3: Gold vs. Other Assets - Compared to other precious metals like silver and platinum, gold has a unique historical and cultural acceptance that makes it a superior store of value [15] - Inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are still government debt and may not provide the same safety as gold during significant debt crises [17] - While stocks, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI, offer high return potential, they also carry bubble risks, making gold a prudent diversification choice [17][18] Group 4: Tactical Allocation Strategy - Dalio advises a strategic asset allocation approach rather than tactical betting on gold prices, suggesting a 15% allocation for optimal risk-return balance [19][20] - He notes that the rise of gold ETFs has improved market liquidity but does not represent the primary driver of the current gold price increase [20] - If various investors allocate a suitable proportion of their assets to gold, the limited supply could lead to significantly higher gold prices [20]