Group 1 - The report focuses on two main areas: the future direction of US Treasury bonds post-recession trading and the recent expanded meetings of the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [3][5] - The report indicates that the recent rapid recession trading requires a period of adjustment, with the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion showing signs of easing, suggesting that the market is more influenced by "atmospheric recession" rather than fundamental economic weakness [5][17] - It is noted that the US economy still shows resilience, and while Treasury yields may rise in the short term, the overall upward movement is expected to be limited, providing ongoing trading opportunities [5][17] Group 2 - The central bank's expanded meeting emphasized a clearer understanding of "moderate easing" as a monetary policy goal, balancing short-term and long-term objectives while supporting the real economy [26][27] - The report highlights that the market's previous optimistic interpretation of monetary policy easing may have been overly optimistic, leading to a tighter perceived funding environment despite the stated policy direction [29][31] - The report suggests that structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade are likely to be introduced, enhancing credit expansion in targeted areas [37][38] Group 3 - High-frequency macro data indicates an upward trend in the real estate, transportation, and coal-steel industries, while the construction materials and petrochemical sectors are still in need of recovery [3][6] - The report provides insights into various economic indicators, such as industrial production, consumer behavior, and commodity prices, reflecting the current economic landscape [44][45] - The report notes that the overall economic environment is characterized by a mix of recovery in certain sectors and ongoing challenges in others, necessitating careful monitoring of key variables like M1, corporate profits, and prices [6][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the improvement in liquidity and the reversal of fundamentals in the Hong Kong high-value consumables market, with a focus on companies like Guichuang Tongqiao, Xintai Medical, and Micron Brain Science [9][10]. - The vascular intervention high-value consumables market in China shows significant growth potential due to low domestic penetration rates and high growth rates, with a market size of 55.9 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.77% [15][16]. - The report emphasizes the strong recovery in the fundamentals of Hong Kong high-value consumables companies, with a notable reduction in losses and a positive profit outlook for the first half of 2024 [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquidity Improvement and Fundamental Reversal - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved, reaching the highest weekly trading volume since 2020, driven by low valuations and the revaluation of Chinese tech assets [9]. - The vascular intervention high-value consumables market remains under-penetrated compared to developed countries, indicating substantial growth opportunities [10]. 1.1. High Growth Rate and Fundamental Reversal - The report notes that the vascular intervention consumables market is experiencing robust growth, with a market size of 55.9 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 13.77% year-on-year [15][16]. - The report identifies a significant cash reserve among 14 selected Hong Kong high-value consumables companies, indicating financial stability and growth potential [5][18]. 1.2. Focus on Key Companies - Guichuang Tongqiao is highlighted for its dual focus on neurointervention and peripheral intervention, entering a profit release phase with a revenue of 364 million yuan in the first half of 2024, up 58.2% year-on-year [22][28]. - Xintai Medical is recognized for its innovative approach with biodegradable occluders, achieving a revenue of 249 million yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a growth of 49.74% [29][34]. - Micron Brain Science is noted for its extensive product pipeline and market leadership in neurointervention, with expected revenue growth driven by new product approvals [35][38]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report reviews the performance of the pharmaceutical sector, noting a 1.77% increase in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index from March 10 to March 14, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [5]. - The report also tracks the performance of various stocks within the sector, highlighting significant gains for companies like Jincheng Pharmaceutical and Saili Medical [5].

证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025年3月16日 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号:S0120523080002 邮箱: xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号:S0120523070007 邮箱:tansy@tebon.com.cn 投资要点: ● 上周全球股市涨少跌多。巴西 IBOVESPA 指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数 集体回调,标普 500、纳指和道指涨跌幅分别为-2.3%、-2.4%和-3.1%:欧洲市场 三大主要指数集体回调,德国DAX、英国富时 100和法国 CAC40 涨跌幅分别为- 0.1%、-0.5%和-1.1%;亚太地区涨跌分化,沪深300、日经 225和韩国综合指数 上涨,其余市场回调。 | 面 -- 公司超强的全球竞争力、完善的金融系统和强大的美元体系,特朗普新政给 | | --- | | 美国与盟友的关系的确造成了一些冲击,但我们认为这对美股的三大根基尚不足 | | 以形成显著冲击,美股具备的投资价值也不会受到显著影响,只是此前估值过高带 | | 来了一定的调整压力,近期释放充分后底部布局的机遇期或许已经接近了。 | | ● 配置策略:在上述预判 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 价行情》，2025.3.9 5.《新凤鸣(603225.SH)：周而复始周 期新，凤鸣长空启华章》，2025.3.3 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《供给协同默契空前，内外共振需 求 稳健——三氯蔗糖行业专题报 告》，2025.3.10 3.《春潮涌动！关注农药小品种、碳 酸锶、三氯蔗糖等》，2025.3.9 4.《关注毒死蜱、绿草定、烯草酮、 阿维菌素、甲维盐、百菌清等农药涨 行业周报 基础化工 （+24.3%）、R142b（山东华安）（+20%）、硫酸(98%)（+15.4%）、氯氰菊酯 （+15.4%）、金属钴（+13.5%）、液化天然气(日本到岸价)（+9.4%）、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is expected to see valuation recovery opportunities due to favorable consumption policies [5] - The white wine sector shows strong recovery expectations, suggesting active allocation [5] - The beer sector is under short-term pressure but maintains a structural upgrade trend [9] - The seasoning and condiment sector is undergoing reforms, with a focus on improvement [10] - The dairy sector is expected to recover as consumption scenarios improve [10] - The restaurant supply chain is anticipated to benefit from policy support and improving demand [11] - The snack food sector shows growth potential due to channel advantages [12] - The food additives sector is seeing a gradual recovery in demand [12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The white wine sector has seen a 6.66% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.07 percentage points [5] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for white wine investments: strong performance companies, those benefiting from demand recovery, and those improving management efficiency [5] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.61 percentage points during the week [15] - Various sub-sectors within food and beverage showed positive trends, with other alcoholic beverages leading at +8.41% [17] 3. Key Data Tracking - White wine prices have shown fluctuations, with the price of Feitian Moutai at 2420 RMB per case as of March 14, down 2% from March 7 [26] - The beer production for December 2024 was 241.10 million liters, a 12.20% year-on-year increase [30] - The average price of fresh milk was 3.08 RMB per kilogram as of March 6, showing a slight decrease [34] 4. Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase its shareholding through market transactions, with a minimum investment of 150 million RMB [56] 5. Industry News - Wuliangye Group aims to enhance its global presence and promote Chinese liquor culture through media partnerships [59]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 17 日 食品饮料 优于大市（维持） 研究助理 相关研究 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20250303- 20250307-进入业绩披露期，关注两 会政策催化》，2025.3.10 2.《食品饮料行业周报 20250224- 20250228-地产数据回暖，行业基本 面有望逐步改善》，2025.3.4 3.《政策预期向好，重视低位布局机 会》，2025.2.24 4.《蜜雪冰城：全球平价茶饮龙头， 超级供应链企业》，2025.2.19 5.《食品饮料行业周报 20250210- 20250214-政策强调提振消费，关注 后续需求回暖》，2025.2.17 消费政策暖风频吹， 看好食品饮料估值修复机会 食品饮料行业周报 20250310-2025 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 15 日 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《黄金：降息预期持续走高，金价 有望持续提升》，2025.3.13 2.《金徽股份：行业持续景气，公司 业绩上行》，2025.3.11 3.《电解铝：盈利快速扩张，景气度 有望持续》，2025.3.11 4.《有色金属周报：特朗普确认对加 墨征收关税后暂缓执行，通胀预期驱 动 金 属 价 格 进 入 上 涨 通 道 》， 2025.3.9 5.《有色金属周报：俄罗斯提出与乌 克兰停战要求，战后重建或拉动工业 金属需求》，2025.3.1 有色金属周报：金融属性叠加供 给扰动，有色价格全面上涨 [Tab ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 3 月 15 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 置换债与信贷互相替代，融资需求不弱 ——2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：2 月，M2 增速持平，M1 增速回落，社融增速回升，信贷增速下降， 新房销售不高居民中长贷需求较稳，置换债与企业贷款互相替代，融资需求不弱。 春节后 M1增速回落，后续看化债和物价。宽货币是手段，宽信用是目的，宽信用 进程可能推动利率上行，有利于配置盘配债。 新房销售不高居民中长贷需求较稳，置换债与企业贷款互相替代。我们认为，1-2 月贷款投放主要呈现两个特征：其一，新房销售不高，居民中长贷或逐步形成新中 枢。1-2 月，新房销售仍显疲弱，二手房销售带动整体地产销售向好。其二，置换 债与企业贷款互相替代。1 月新发用于置换隐债的地方债规模较小，同时企业贷款 多增，票据 ...

彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 白鑫 资格编号：S0120524080003 邮箱：baixin3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《光伏产业链发展良好，各环节降 价有望刺激 23 年需求》，2022.12.16 2.《风电行业策略年度报告-不惧一 番 寒彻骨，已闻梅花扑鼻香》， 2022.12.16 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 电气设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 3.《发挥新能源战略性新型产业优 势 ，推动扩大内需战略发展》， 2022.12.15 4.《内蒙古能源局印发实施细则推动 源网荷储、风光制氢等项目发展》， 2022.12.15 5.《11 月欧洲新能源车销量点评：环 比高增，政策收紧》，2022.12.15 电气设备 2025 年 3 月 16 日 硅料价格维持稳定，硅片价格探涨 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 如何看待特朗普冲击？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | 图 1：近两周全球主要股票市场指数涨跌幅（%） 4 | | --- | | 图 2：上周全球主要商品涨跌幅 4 | | 图 3：近两周美股小盘风格指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 4：近两周美股标普 500 行业指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 5：近两周港股风格指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 6：近两周港股行业指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 7：美股 VIX指数走势 5 | | 图 8：全球主要股票市场估值 6 | | 图 9：标普 500 股债收益比 6 | | 图 10：纳斯达克股债收益比 6 | | 图 11：恒生指数股债收益比 7 | | 图 12：恒生科技股债收益比 7 | | 图 13：美 ...