证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 如何看待特朗普冲击？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | 图 1：近两周全球主要股票市场指数涨跌幅（%） 4 | | --- | | 图 2：上周全球主要商品涨跌幅 4 | | 图 3：近两周美股小盘风格指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 4：近两周美股标普 500 行业指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 5：近两周港股风格指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 6：近两周港股行业指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 7：美股 VIX指数走势 5 | | 图 8：全球主要股票市场估值 6 | | 图 9：标普 500 股债收益比 6 | | 图 10：纳斯达克股债收益比 6 | | 图 11：恒生指数股债收益比 7 | | 图 12：恒生科技股债收益比 7 | | 图 13：美 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价 格震荡反弹》，2025.3.9 2.《煤炭周报：协会倡议书出台， 静待需求发力》，2025.3.2 3.《煤炭周报：政策&基本面共振， 看好煤焦钢估值修复》，2025.2.23 4.《煤炭周报："金三银四"旺季将 至，关注煤焦钢弹性》，2025.2.16 5.《煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税 支撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情》，2025.2.9 煤炭周报：进口煤管控开启，煤 价有望企稳 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 投资建议：2024 年 9 月政治局会议开启经济支持新篇章，结合近两年供给持续弱 化，煤炭板块基本面底部再度确认，市场对于 EPS 担 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhenyou Technology (688418.SH) [1] Core Views - Zhenyou Technology is positioned as a leading enterprise in satellite core networks and is expected to benefit from the growth of overseas business [3] - The company has a strong technological layout and is well-supported by policies promoting communication infrastructure [5] - The satellite internet demand is beginning to materialize, with significant user and terminal growth anticipated [5] - The company has secured key contracts, including the core network construction for the Tian Tong satellite project, establishing itself as a unique supplier [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhenyou Technology has focused on communication systems for 20 years, currently in an expansion phase [10] - The company has a stable shareholding structure and a management team with extensive industry experience [13] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 20.16% from 2019 to 2023, and is projected to achieve revenues of 949 million, 1,251 million, and 1,588 million yuan from 2024 to 2026 [16] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with projections of 26 million, 113 million, and 176 million yuan for the same period [16] Market Opportunities - The rollout of 5G-A is expected to drive growth in both public and private networks, with significant opportunities in specialized networks [29] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the satellite internet market, with a strong presence in overseas markets [5][12] Technological Edge - Zhenyou Technology is one of the few companies capable of providing IMS core networks and has a comprehensive range of 10G-PON products [5] - The company has established a strong technological barrier through continuous R&D investment, making it a key player in the satellite communication sector [22][39] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of satellite internet infrastructure and the expansion of its overseas business [5] - The market for specialized communication networks is projected to grow at around 10% annually, with significant demand for small base stations [43][45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a sustained increase in gold prices driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and ongoing de-dollarization trends, which are expected to support long-term growth in gold prices [5][7] - The report suggests that the recent rise in market expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by lower consumer price index (CPI) data, may lead to a rebound in gold prices after a period of fluctuation [7] - The report recommends several stocks in the gold sector, including Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and others, as potential investment opportunities due to favorable market conditions [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, showing a range of -18% to +24% compared to the CSI 300 index from March 2024 to November 2024 [3] Related Research - The report references two related studies: "Jinhui Co.: Industry Continues to Prosper, Company Performance on the Rise" and "Electrolytic Aluminum: Rapid Profit Expansion, Industry Prosperity Expected to Continue" [4] Investment Recommendations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various stocks, all rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance: - Shengda Resources: EPS 0.21 (2023), PE 69.57 - Yintai Gold: EPS 0.51 (2023), PE 33.38 - Hunan Gold: EPS 0.41 (2023), PE 58.51 - Hengbang Co.: EPS 0.45 (2023), PE 24.36 - Zhongjin Gold: EPS 0.61 (2023), PE 20.89 - Shandong Gold: EPS 0.42 (2023), PE 58.26 - Chifeng Gold: EPS 0.49 (2023), PE 38.53 - Zijin Mining: EPS 0.80 (2023), PE 20.86 [7]

Inflation Data Summary - In February, the U.S. CPI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to +2.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, down from +0.5% previously[3][5]. - The core CPI (excluding food and energy) in February recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, better than the expected 3.2% and down from 3.3% in January, marking the lowest level since May 2021[4][5]. Food and Energy Prices - Food inflation in February was +2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, while energy prices returned to negative growth at -0.3% year-on-year[5][8]. - Energy prices month-on-month increased by +0.2%, down from +1.1% in January, indicating a significant cooling in energy price growth[5][8]. Core Services and Goods - Core services inflation decreased slightly to 4.1% year-on-year from 4.3% in January, while core goods inflation remained stable at 0.0% year-on-year[6][7]. - The contribution rates to CPI from core services, core goods, food, and energy were +0.153%, +0.042%, +0.022%, and +0.012% respectively on a year-on-year basis[7]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the inflation data, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices saw increases of 1.22% and 0.49% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2%[4]. Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to remain below 3.0% for the period from March to November 2025, with December's CPI projected at approximately 3.1%[7]. - The probability of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) exceeding 2.5% over the next 12 months is expected to rise from 11.5% in October 2024 to 41.3% in February 2025[7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Baofeng Energy is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant growth in production and sales of polyethylene and polypropylene due to new capacity coming online [5][6] - The company reported a revenue of 32.983 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and a net profit of 6.338 billion yuan, up 12.2% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates continued improvement in profitability driven by the recovery of price differentials and the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.51%, 5.32%, and 5.64% over the last three months [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.708 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year but an increase of 18.0% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The production volumes for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 1.133 million tons, 1.173 million tons, and 7.039 million tons respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 35.0%, 56.7%, and 0.9% [5] - The average prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 7,089 yuan, 6,697 yuan, and 1,388 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +0.1%, -0.9%, and -11.9% respectively [5] Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully launched its first series of 1 million tons of coal-to-olefins in Inner Mongolia, with further expansions planned for 2025 [5] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned for growth with ongoing projects in Xinjiang and Ningdong, which are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [5][6] Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 14.305 billion yuan, 17.022 billion yuan, and 18.927 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 125.7%, 19.0%, and 11.2% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million yuan [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance profitability and support the strategic integration of the company's Sanqi business [6] - The stable landing of centralized procurement is anticipated to lead to a recovery in product prices, providing a favorable outlook for future earnings [6] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan and a net profit of 203 million yuan [6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3 yuan per ten shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 35.04% [6] - The company’s core products, including "Kun Traditional Chinese Medicine 1381," have shown significant growth, with combined revenue from key products increasing by 20% [6] Strategic Developments - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo into the company’s financials is expected to bolster profits and establish a benchmark in the Sanqi industry chain [6] - The company is focusing on brand building and channel development, which are progressing steadily [6] - The centralized procurement renewal in December 2024 has stabilized prices for key products, ensuring a stable revenue stream until December 31, 2027 [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 750 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.135 billion yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18, 15, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 昆药集团(600422.SH) 2025 年 03 月 12 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：医药生物/中药Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：17.77 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 向潇 市场表现 -43% -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 昆药集团 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -0.45 | 13.91 | 12.18 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -1.95 | 8.31 | 13.37 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《昆药集团：集采续约平稳落地，圣 火并表未来可期》，2025.1.3 2.《昆药集团 2024 年中报点评：针剂 拖累表观业绩，口服核心品种表现亮 眼。》，2024.8.26 昆药集团 2024 年报点评：核心品种快 速增长，品牌+渠道建设稳步推进 投资要点 风险提示：品牌打 ...

证券分析师 王华炳 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 03 月 12 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：17.43 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 5.51 | 5.32 | 5.64 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 4.47 | -0.28 | 6.99 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：煤制烯烃 民企典范，成本领先成长广阔》， 2024.11.19 宝丰能源(600989.SH):价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！ 投资要点 请务必阅 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 金徽股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 4.37 | 8.24 | 0.08 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 3.33 | 2.64 | 1.44 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 增持（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：11.95 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 相关研究 1.《金徽股份（603132.SH）：24H1 铅 锌矿量价齐升，净利增超 40%》， 2024.8.17 2.《金徽股份（603132.SH）：矿业权 出让收益金调整致净利同比下降，江 洛矿区整合进行时》，2024.3.25 金徽股份：行 ...