德邦股份 20250113 摘要 Q&A 德邦股份作为快运行业的龙头，曾经一度陷入电商困境的原因是什么？ 德邦股份陷入电商困境的原因主要有两方面。一方面是外部竞争环境的变化。自 2018 年起，包括京东物流、顺丰在内的大型物流公司纷纷进入中高端快运市场， 导致行业竞争加剧。此外，低端快递公司通过加盟模式扩展货量，也进一步加剧 了市场竞争。另一方面，公司内部管理出现问题。从 2017 年到 2021 年，公司实 施轮值 CEO 制度，管理层频繁变动，战略执行和内部管理出现波动。同时，公司 在战略上错位，将更多精力聚焦于快递业务，而非其核心产品快运业务。这些因 • 德邦股份曾因外部竞争加剧（京东物流、顺丰等进入中高端快运市场）和 内部管理问题（轮值 CEO 制度导致战略执行波动，资源错配）导致业绩下 滑，陷入电商困境。 • 2023 年以来，宏观经济需求疲软压制德邦业绩，但 2024 年 9 月底以来宏 观经济政策转向积极，为德邦带来增长机遇。中高端快运市场已形成德邦、 顺丰、京东物流三足鼎立的格局。 • 德邦股份近年来积极调整内部管理，稳定管理层，重新聚焦中高端快运核 心业务，提升运营效率和服务质量，利润分位数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic policies are positive, and downstream demand is expected to improve, with significant economic support measures announced in recent political meetings [5]. - The coal and steel sectors are seeing profit recovery driven by supply constraints and demand expectations, with policies supporting real estate and infrastructure investment [5]. - The copper market is experiencing a price recovery due to improved demand expectations and inflation trading, with recent price adjustments indicating a positive market sentiment [5]. - The aluminum sector is facing a supply ceiling effect, with demand expected to improve in 2025, particularly from the real estate and new energy vehicle sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Coal and Steel - Supply constraints are driving profit recovery, and demand is expected to increase due to effective policy implementation in real estate and infrastructure [5]. - The steel industry is seeing marginal improvements in profitability due to production control policies, with expectations for further enhancements in 2025 [5]. Copper - The copper price has shown an upward trend, with a recent reference price of 75,690 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.28% increase from the previous day and a 1.38% increase from the same month last year [5]. - Economic recovery indicators, such as better-than-expected CPI data, are boosting market confidence [5]. Aluminum - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China is approximately 45.1 million tons, nearing the estimated ceiling of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity expected in 2025 [5]. - Demand from the real estate sector is projected to improve in 2025 due to a low base effect [5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in copper include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [5]. - Recommended stocks in aluminum include Yunnan Aluminum and others [5]. - Recommendations for coking coal and coke include various companies, indicating a diversified investment approach [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the specialized air conditioning sector, with a strong growth momentum and a comprehensive layout in liquid cooling technology, which is expected to benefit from the AI wave [4][5] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% from 2020 to 2023, despite a slight decline in net profit due to increased investment in overseas markets and liquid cooling technology [4][22] - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of $10.2 billion by 2028 [4] Summary by Sections 1. Leadership in Specialized Air Conditioning - The company has expanded its product line in specialized air conditioning, including data service air conditioning, industrial air conditioning, special air conditioning, and public and commercial air conditioning [12][13] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 27.6% of the shares, which supports strategic decision-making [15][18] - Revenue has steadily increased from 1.467 billion yuan in 2020 to 2.511 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [4][22] 2. AI-Driven Intelligent Computing Center Construction - The specialized air conditioning market has broad applications, including data service industries, industrial sectors, special environments, and public buildings [41][45] - The construction of intelligent computing centers is accelerating, with the number of standard racks in use in China reaching 8.1 million by the end of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [48] - The average Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of computing centers has improved to 1.48, indicating better energy efficiency [50] 3. Advanced Layout in Liquid Cooling - The company has been researching liquid cooling technology since 2011 and has established one of the earliest commercial liquid cooling micro-module data centers in China [4][12] - The company’s liquid cooling systems are designed to meet the increasing cooling demands of high-density racks, with a focus on energy efficiency and adaptability [4][12] - The liquid cooling market is expected to become mainstream due to its advantages over traditional air cooling systems, particularly in meeting PUE requirements [53] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.83 billion yuan, 3.64 billion yuan, and 4.62 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 12.8%, 28.5%, and 27.0% [4][5] - Net profits are expected to reach 162 million yuan, 265 million yuan, and 336 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 54.1%, 63.9%, and 27.0% [4][5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is lower than the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for profit growth in the AI liquid cooling industry [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company, Laopu Gold, is positioned in the high-end gold luxury market, with optimistic growth expectations driven by product differentiation and strong brand positioning [5][9]. - The ancient gold market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a robust demand for gold products [7]. - The company's unique product offerings and strong design capabilities are seen as key competitive advantages in a market characterized by product homogeneity [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes significant absolute and relative price increases for Laopu Gold, with absolute increases of 47.29%, 43.61%, and 75.68% over the past 1, 2, and 3 months respectively [4]. Company Overview - Laopu Gold has expanded its offline presence to 38 stores by the end of 2024, with a focus on high-end shopping districts, enhancing brand visibility and consumer attraction [7]. - The company has successfully implemented promotional activities during key shopping periods, resulting in over 30% year-on-year sales growth in first-tier cities [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.18 billion in 2023 to 8.04 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from 416 million to 1.95 billion in the same period [8][10]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in same-store sales, driven by brand loyalty and a growing consumer base [7][9]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to double its store count in the domestic market and expand internationally, targeting Southeast Asia, including Hong Kong, Macau, Tokyo, and Singapore [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for further growth in the high-end jewelry segment, supported by a strong marketing strategy and product innovation [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][62]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as one of the leading players in the Jiangsu liquor market, benefiting from a rich historical background and a diverse product matrix that spans various price segments [4][9][15]. - The Jiangsu liquor market is projected to reach approximately 625 billion yuan in 2023, with a strong demand for medium-strength liquor, indicating significant growth potential for the company [27][28]. - The company is strategically focusing on expanding its market presence both within Jiangsu and nationally, utilizing a "3+4" strategy to penetrate surrounding markets effectively [49][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a deep-rooted history in liquor production, originating from the Han Dynasty, and has evolved through various mergers and acquisitions [9][12]. - The local government holds a significant stake in the company, aligning employee interests with corporate performance [12]. 2. Product and Channel Strategy - The product portfolio is extensive, covering all price ranges and catering to various consumer scenarios, with a focus on high-end and medium-strength liquor [15][22]. - The company is enhancing its distribution channels through a grid-like, flat, and refined approach, which has led to a substantial increase in the number of distributors and sales personnel [18][19]. 3. Market Potential - The Jiangsu market still has room for growth, particularly in the Suzhong and Sunan regions, which are expected to drive future sales [45]. - The company is also implementing a national expansion strategy, focusing on key provinces and cities to build a consumer base before expanding further [49][52]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 11.87 billion, 13.40 billion, and 15.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.6%, 12.8%, and 12.5% respectively [4][62]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 3.63 billion, 4.01 billion, and 4.67 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 15.7%, 10.4%, and 16.6% [4][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a supply-side contraction, with the introduction of a "one-price model" sparking market debate. The report analyzes the industry's self-discipline attempts and historical profit performances across three cycles [5]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a long-term positive outlook for filament production. The industry has seen a significant slowdown in capacity growth, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026, down from 7.1% from 2017 to 2023 [7][34]. - The report highlights the underestimation of cyclical elasticity in the filament industry, with historical data showing significant excess returns during previous cycles [8][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester filament is a major synthetic fiber in China, with a production volume of approximately 45.09 million tons in 2023, accounting for 65.6% of total chemical fiber production [15]. 2. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The high-speed capacity expansion phase has ended, leading to increased industry concentration. The CR6 of the industry rose from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, indicating a more optimized market structure [27][40]. - Domestic textile and apparel sectors are recovering, with industrial output value for textiles increasing by 5.1% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [45]. - The report anticipates a supply-demand gap of 230,000 tons in 2024, 290,000 tons in 2025, and 740,000 tons in 2026, suggesting a long-term favorable market outlook [30]. 3. Cyclical Elasticity - Historical performance indicates that the filament industry has shown significant profit elasticity, with major companies like Tongkun and Xinfengming positioned to benefit from the current cycle [8][21]. 4. Industry Targets - Key companies mentioned include Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to lead the market in the coming years [9].

Inflation Overview - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline since August 2024[4] - The CPI remained flat month-on-month at 0.0%, an increase of 0.6% from the previous month[4] - Food prices contributed significantly to the CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% in December, compared to an increase of 1.0% in November[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI in December 2024 decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight recovery of 0.2% from the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[8] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, while the raw materials and processing industries reported declines of 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively[8] - The divergence between high-frequency data and PPI readings may be attributed to time lags in the transmission of commodity prices to the enterprise level and sample selection biases in PPI calculations[8] Key Drivers for 2025 - The recovery of core CPI is crucial for exiting the "low-price" environment, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market to boost consumer confidence and demand[6] - Domestic demand, particularly for coal as a representative of internal demand-driven goods, is essential for monitoring price trends[10] - The "copper-gold ratio" is highlighted as a significant indicator for industrial demand, with the ratio reaching 14.4 in December, indicating a continued downward trend[10] Policy Implications - The shift in policy focus towards stabilizing prices is seen as vital for maintaining expectations, growth, and employment[6] - The effectiveness of recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will be critical in influencing core CPI and overall economic recovery[7] - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of both domestic and industrial demand factors to assess future PPI trends[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.791 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.42% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.371 billion yuan, an increase of 12.39% year-on-year [7] - The coal business is expected to see both volume and price increases, with a significant improvement in cost control [7] - The power generation segment is benefiting from the commercial operation of the second phase of the Banji Power Plant, leading to substantial increases in electricity sales [7] - The company's long-term development plan aims to establish a "coal-coal power-new energy" industrial structure by 2025, with significant growth potential in the power business [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -15.73%, -18.67%, and -22.86% over the last 1, 2, and 3 months respectively [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve a total revenue of 12.791 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.371 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.39% [7] - The company’s coal production is projected to be 21.522 million tons in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.57% year-on-year [7] - The average selling price of coal is expected to be 567.4 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.91% year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.791 billion yuan, 13.580 billion yuan, and 15.185 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.371 billion yuan, 2.657 billion yuan, and 2.873 billion yuan [8][11] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in net profit of approximately 12.4% from 2024 to 2026 [11] Operational Highlights - The company’s coal sales volume is expected to be 18.872 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 4.14% year-on-year [7] - The power generation volume is projected to reach 12.972 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 23.79% year-on-year [7] - The company plans to enhance the synergy between coal and power generation, with a target of achieving 100% self-sufficiency in coal supply for its new power projects by 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has announced a pilot program for 10G optical networks, aiming for implementation in key areas such as residential communities, factories, and parks by the end of 2025. This initiative is part of the transition from gigabit to 10G networks, driven by the increasing demand for higher bandwidth and lower latency due to emerging applications like cloud gaming and the metaverse [7]. - The current gigabit optical network has reached 209 million users, with over 20,000 typical application cases. The transition to 10G networks is expected to significantly enhance network performance, with 10G speeds being substantially higher and latency reduced to one-tenth of gigabit networks [7]. - Local governments, including Beijing and Shanghai, are implementing supportive policies for the development of 10G optical network infrastructure, with specific targets set for 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend with a range from -20% to 59% for the communication sector compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Related Research - Several related research reports are mentioned, focusing on topics such as satellite internet, core suppliers in the optical communication sector, and the trend of transitioning from copper to optical networks [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that sectors such as optical communication, optical networks, and optical cables are likely to benefit from the 10G optical network pilot. Specific companies to watch include those involved in FTTH/FTTR, 50G-PON, and WiFi7 technologies, as well as various players in the optical communication and fiber optic cable sectors [7].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 中科星图(688568.SH) 2025 年 01 月 07 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：计算机/IT 服务Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：46.36 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 中科星图 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -20.75 | -15.65 | 23.76 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -16.30 | -9.98 | 29.28 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 中科星图：低空 AI 算力龙头新 起点 投资要点 脱胎于中科院的天基数字地球国家队龙头 （1）公司是 ...