Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in corporate credit, with a cautious approach to bad debt recognition and disposal [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in operating income of 5.63% to 18.495 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.58% [4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio for bad loans decreased by 18.81 percentage points to 370.54% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 operating income was 18.495 billion yuan, a 5.63% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 7.417 billion yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [4] - Total assets reached 3.4 trillion yuan, marking a 17.58% increase year-on-year [4] - The NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 370.54% [4][5] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans saw rapid growth, driven by strong demand in the region, while personal loans remained constrained [4] - The bank's deposit growth outpaced the M2 growth rate, benefiting from strong customer loyalty and favorable economic conditions [4] Interest Margin and Investment - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.80%, down 10 basis points year-on-year [4] - The bank's financial investments also grew rapidly, driven by government financing [4] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The overall asset quality remained stable, with a cautious approach to bad debt disposal [5] - The bank's bad debt recognition and write-off efforts were significant, with a write-off ratio of 27.37% [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected operating revenues of 71.402 billion, 76.912 billion, and 84.322 billion yuan respectively [5] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 29.211 billion, 31.598 billion, and 34.823 billion yuan respectively [5] - The projected price-to-book ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.79, 0.72, and 0.65 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The dairy price is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 after a prolonged adjustment cycle lasting over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses [6][60] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of raw milk prices influenced by production capacity, demand, and imports, with significant historical fluctuations noted [6][19] - The report emphasizes the correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, suggesting that stock prices may react ahead of milk prices during cyclical changes [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycle - The raw milk price is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical pattern [6][19] - The dairy industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle for dairy cows, leading to delayed responses in production capacity adjustments [18][19] - Historical data shows three downward cycles and two upward cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with significant events impacting demand and prices [19][26] 2. 2025 Outlook - The industry is currently facing severe losses, with a continued trend of dairy cow capacity reduction expected [60][62] - Policy support is anticipated to improve dairy product demand, contributing to a gradual stabilization of milk prices in the latter half of 2025 [60][64] - The report forecasts that as the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices may stabilize, benefiting upstream dairy companies [60][62] 3. Correlation Between Milk Prices and Dairy Company Stocks - The report notes a high correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, indicating that stock prices may respond more quickly to changes in market conditions [6][35] - The performance of downstream dairy companies is also influenced by their product structure and market expectations, which can affect their stock prices during different price cycles [6][35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy, as well as major dairy enterprises like Yili and New Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the stabilization of milk prices [6][60]

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn 联系人： [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月22日 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250522 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析行业板块简评 ➢ 2.邮储银行（601658）：非息收入表现较好，存贷同步降息缓解息差压力——公司简评报 告 ➢ 1.上海市人民政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.金融监管总局等八部门联合印发《支持小微企业融资的若干措施》 ➢ 3.中国与东盟十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判 | 1 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月21日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250521 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨 会 ➢ 1.邮储银行（601658）：非息收入表现较好，存贷同步降息缓解息差压力——公司简评报 告 ➢ 2.保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析行业板块简评 ➢ 3.美出台措施加强半导体出口管制，国产AI芯片2025年国内市占率有望升至40%——电子 行业周报2025/5/12-2025/5/19 ➢ 1.国家发展改革委举行5月份 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月20日 公 司 简 评 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/05/19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 5.30 | | 总股本(万股) | 9,916,108 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 6,712,240/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 94.37% | | 市净率(倍) | 0.53 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 2.83 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 5.83/4.45 | [Table_QuotePic] -21% -14% -8% -1% 5% 12% 18% 25% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 邮储银行 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《邮储银行（601658）：负债优势凸 显，财政部战投与邮政集团增持彰显 信心—公司简评报告》 2025.04.16 《邮储银行（601658）：负债成本优 势保持，储 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 总 量 研 究 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：保险板块长时间震荡回落，调整较为充分。短线技术条件逐渐向好，或已走出 下降趋势。指数在震荡调整过程中，大单资金活跃。下方支撑较多，回落空间小，上涨空 间大。 ➢ 风险提示：技术分析是对已有的行情进行统计、归纳、分析，是从当前市场量、价、线、 形、位多个角度进行多空力量对比，是对稳定条件下的市场情绪进行的判断预估，是对之 前的行情运行规律进行的总结、应用。当市场突发较大的政治、经济、军事、自然灾害及 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6. 《证 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月20日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250520 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.创新药链热度持续，关注中药等细分板块——医药生物行业周报（2025/05/12- 2025/05/18） ➢ 2.修订并购重组管理办法，制度包容度提升释放市场活力——资本市场聚焦（三） ➢ 3.关税扰动下，韧性较强的4月经济——国内观察：2025年4月经济数据 ➢ 4.白酒底部区间，大众品关注高成长性赛道——食品饮料行业周报（202 ...

[table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月19日 [关税扰动下，韧性较强的 Table_NewTitle] 4月经济 ——国内观察：2025年4月经济数据 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 事件：5月19日，国家统计局公布2025年4月经济数据。4月社零总额同比5.1%，前值5.9%； 固投同比4.0%，前值4.2%；规上工业增加值同比6.1%，前值7.7%。 ➢ 核心观点：4月关税政策虽对预期的扰动明显，工业生产、社零增速均小幅回落，但高于 去年中枢；投资端基建以及制造业投资依然稳定，但地产的拖累仍然较深。4月政治局会 议做出积极部署，金融一揽子政策落地以及定调均超市场预期，此外日内瓦联合声明标志 中美贸易摩擦进入阶段性缓和期。后续来看，由于90 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月19日 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.白酒压力释放，关注高景气品类— —食品饮料行业周报（2025/5/5- 2025/5/11） 2.安井食品（603345）：经营稳健， 方向明确——公司简评报告 3.盐津铺子（002847）：核心品类持 续放量，多渠道快速发力——公司简 评报告 [Table_NewTitle 白酒底部区间，大众品关注高成长性赛 ] 道 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/5/12-2025/5/18） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 业 研 究 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the energy storage industry, highlighting significant growth potential in both demand and supply aspects. Core Viewpoints - The global energy storage market is experiencing robust growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of 372GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.6% [4][9] - New energy storage installations are expected to continue rising, particularly in emerging markets, driven by energy transition goals and aging grid infrastructure [4][46] - The industry is currently facing a low-price environment due to oversupply, which is expected to persist in the short term [4][50] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with new installations reaching 82.8GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.2% [4][9] - The share of new energy storage installations is increasing, with 165.4GW of new energy storage capacity installed by the end of 2024, up 81.2% year-on-year [4][9] Regional Insights - **China**: The domestic energy storage market reached a cumulative installed capacity of 137.9GW by the end of 2024, a 59.4% increase year-on-year, with new energy storage accounting for over half of this capacity [11][16] - **United States**: The U.S. energy storage market added 12.3GW in 2024, reflecting a 32.8% increase, driven by a release of pent-up demand and favorable policy changes [4][31] - **Europe**: The European market saw a 15.3% increase in new energy storage installations, totaling 21.9GWh in 2024, with a shift towards larger storage systems expected [36][38] Price Dynamics - The industry is currently characterized by an oversupply, leading to a continued low-price environment, with the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells dropping to 0.34 CNY/Wh by the end of 2024, a decrease of 22.7% from the beginning of the year [4][50] Performance Review - The energy storage sector reported total revenue of 683.31 billion CNY in 2024, a decline of 5.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 6.5% to 75.06 billion CNY [4][59] - Specific segments such as PCS and thermal control saw revenue growth of 6.8% and 23.6% respectively, indicating a recovery trend within the industry [4][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong risk resilience and those that have established a competitive advantage in global markets, such as CATL and Sungrow [4][59]