[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月19日 超配 行 业 周 报 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -13% 3% 20% 36% 53% 69% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 NBV延续高增势头——非银金融行 业周报（20250428-20250504） 2.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 3.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） [Table_NewTitle 并购重组新规迎修订，第三批险资长投 ] 试点落地 ——非银金融行业周报（20250512-20250518） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 非 银 金 融 [table_invest ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a balanced asset allocation strategy to identify undervalued equity assets amid economic expectations and market risk preferences [5][7] - Global stock markets showed a general upward trend, with US stocks outperforming A-shares, while commodity futures displayed mixed results, with gold prices declining and oil, copper, and aluminum prices rising [5][6] - The report indicates that the domestic equity market is favored in the long term due to improving domestic consumption and a consistent focus on technology [7][8] Group 2 - The technical conditions of the securities sector have improved, with significant support levels and limited downside potential, suggesting a favorable outlook for short-term price movements [10][12] - The securities index has shown signs of recovery after a prolonged downtrend, with a notable increase in trading volume and net inflows of large orders, indicating a shift in market sentiment [11][12] - The report identifies a potential head-and-shoulders bottom pattern in the securities index, suggesting substantial upside potential if the index breaks through key resistance levels [13][14] Group 3 - Recent economic data indicates a decline in consumer confidence in the US, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 50.8, the second-lowest level in history [15][16] - The report notes that Japan's first-quarter GDP growth was below expectations, indicating potential economic challenges in the region [15] - The US government's credit rating was downgraded by Moody's, reflecting concerns over rising debt levels and interest payments, which may impact market sentiment [15][16]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月18日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [经济预期与市场风险偏好，均衡配置下 Table_NewTitle] 寻找权益低估资产 ——资产配置周报（2025/05/12-2025/05/16） [table_main] 投资要点 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。至5月16日当周，全球股市多数收涨，美股表现强于A股；主要商品期 货中黄金下跌，原油、铜、铝均收涨；美元指数小幅上涨，日元、欧元贬值，人民 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月16日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：证券板块指数在近日的震荡盘升中短线技术条件明显修复。短线虽仍处头肩底 形态内，尚未突破颈线位，也尚未突破60日均线，仍或因多空争夺而震荡。但指数下方大 单资金介入较深，下方支撑位较多，回落空间相对小。而若指数有效突破头肩底颈线位， 或相比于2015年5月的前期高点，指数上行空间较大。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月16日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250516 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 ➢ 1.鲍威尔表示随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高 ➢ 2.美国4月PPI数据发布 ➢ 3.中国人民银行、科技部、金融监管总局和中国证监会联合召开科技金融工作交流推进会 ➢ 4.央行公告：优化"互换通"的机制安排 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 老百姓（603883）：深耕优势区域，业绩有望逐渐企稳向好——公司简评报告 | | | | 3 | | 1.2. 政府融资驱动社融较快增长，贷款边际放缓——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十 | | | 四） | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | 6 | | 股市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to gradually stabilize and improve its performance as it deepens its advantages in key regions [1][4]. - The company faced short-term performance pressure due to various factors, including losses from new store openings and store closures, as well as increased depreciation and amortization [4][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its retail ecosystem and enhancing its new retail business, with significant growth in online sales channels [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan (down 0.36% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 519 million yuan (down 44.13% year-on-year) [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.43 billion yuan (down 1.88% year-on-year, down 11.27% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 251 million yuan (down 21.98% year-on-year, up 325.63% quarter-on-quarter) [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.17%, with a net margin of 3.06% [4][5]. Business Segment Performance - Retail business revenue in 2024 was 19.11 billion yuan (down 1.25% year-on-year), while franchise, alliance, and distribution revenue was 3.11 billion yuan (up 5.92% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company’s online sales reached approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 24% [4][5]. - The company has increased its store count to 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores (up 12.55% year-on-year) [4][5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.91 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [4][5]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 9.13% in 2025, 9.49% in 2026, and 9.39% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to gradually stabilize and improve its performance as it deepens its advantages in key regions [1] - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit have been under pressure due to various factors, including losses from new stores and increased depreciation [4][5] - The company is focusing on expanding its retail business and enhancing its new retail ecosystem, with significant growth in online sales and O2O services [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan (down 0.36% year-on-year) and a net profit of 519 million yuan (down 44.13% year-on-year) [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.43 billion yuan (down 1.88% year-on-year) and a net profit of 251 million yuan (down 21.98% year-on-year) [4][5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.17%, with a net margin of 3.06% [4][5] Business Segments - Retail business revenue was 19.11 billion yuan (down 1.25% year-on-year), while franchise, alliance, and distribution revenue was 3.11 billion yuan (up 5.92% year-on-year) [4] - The company has been expanding its product line in the new retail sector, with online sales reaching approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of about 24% [4] Market Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on its advantageous markets and accelerate its presence in lower-tier cities, with 80% of new stores in 2024 located in cities at or below the prefecture level [4][5] - The total number of stores reached 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.55% [4][5] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan, respectively [5] - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.91 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [5]

Group 1: U.S. Inflation Analysis - The U.S. April CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3% [5][6] - Three reasons are identified for the lower-than-expected inflation: the time lag in tariff transmission to prices, absorption of tariff impacts by U.S. importers and foreign exporters, and declining energy prices offsetting tariff-induced price increases [6][10][12] - Energy prices continued to decline, with energy commodities down 11.5% year-on-year, while energy services remained strong, with gas prices increasing 15.7% year-on-year [7][8] Group 2: Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) - Yifeng Pharmacy achieved a revenue of 24.06 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% [16][17] - The company reported a strong performance in its franchise and distribution business, with a revenue increase of 11.34% [17] - The company is focusing on expanding its O2O business, which generated 2.127 billion yuan in revenue, with a 23.02% year-on-year growth [17][19] Group 3: Zhichun Technology (603690) - Zhichun Technology reported a revenue of 3.605 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.40%, but a net profit decline of 93.75% [21][22] - The company is transitioning to a domestic supply chain, with system integration business revenue growing by 22.07% [22][23] - New orders increased by 17.88% in 2024, with a focus on equipment and electronic materials business segments [24][25]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月15日 标配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -23% -14% -4% 5% 14% 24% 33% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.工商银行（601398）：息差和中间 业务收入压力或趋于平缓——公司 简评报告 2.资金端降息效应强于投资端—— 银行业"量价质"跟踪（十三） 3.工商银行（601398）：息差压力缓 解，资产质量整体稳定——公司简评 报告 4.宁波银行（002142）：息差、投资 及资产质量彰显专业经营优势—— 公司简评报告 [Table_NewTitle 政府融资驱动社融较快增长，贷款边际 ] 放缓 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十四） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust performance growth, showcasing its refined management capabilities. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan (up 6.53% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.529 billion yuan (up 8.26% year-on-year) [2] - The company has seen steady growth in its retail and franchise distribution businesses, with the online O2O business growing rapidly. In 2024, retail revenue reached 21.188 billion yuan (up 4.97% year-on-year), and the O2O segment contributed 1.721 billion yuan, growing 23.02% year-on-year [5] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while maintaining a steady expansion pace. As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores reached 14,684, with a net increase of 1,434 stores year-on-year [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.009 billion yuan (up 0.64% year-on-year) and a net profit of 449 million yuan (up 10.51% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 40.12%, and for Q1 2025, it was 39.64%, indicating a slight increase year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The company’s franchise and distribution business achieved a revenue of 2.107 billion yuan in 2024 (up 11.34% year-on-year) [5] - The company has strengthened its prescription drug services and expanded its product offerings, including functional and non-functional food and daily necessities [5] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.755 billion yuan, 1.992 billion yuan, and 2.245 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are expected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.85 yuan [7]