证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250711 房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减弱 ■ 理性看待经济动能转换过程中地产的负增长 ■ 宏观视角:地产投资对经济增长的影响已明显减弱 > 其一,从经济增长的角度,尽管过去几年地产投资维持着 10%的负增 长,但我国经济总量维持着平稳增长,且地产投资对经济增长的影响在 逐步减弱。从直接影响来看,今年一季度我国房地产开发投资累计同比 ） 乐吴让莽 2025年07月11日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb(@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至9月》 2025-07-06 《政府债融资多增或推升 6月社融增 增速录得-9.9%,较去年全年的-10.6%小幅收窄,对经济增长的影响也由 去年全年的-0.9%降至了-0.7%;从间接影响来看,一方面,地产及其拉 动相关行业的增加值占 GDP ...

Macroeconomic Perspective - The contribution of the real estate sector to GDP has significantly decreased, with its share dropping from 16.9% in 2016 to 9.6% in 2024, a decline of 7.3 percentage points[9] - Real estate investment recorded a negative growth of -9.9% in Q1 2025, slightly improving from -10.6% in 2024, with its impact on economic growth reducing from -0.9% to -0.7%[12] - By the end of 2024, residential investment's share of GDP is expected to fall to 5.2%, nearing the lower bound of rigid demand[17] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is improving due to ongoing adjustments in the supply side, with residential sales area showing a reduced decline of -2.6% in the first five months of 2025 compared to -14.1% for the entire year of 2024[18] - The inventory of unsold residential properties has improved, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% in the first five months of 2025, down from 16.2% in 2024[18] - The average annual new housing demand in China is projected to be between 730 million to 890 million square meters from 2025 to 2030[20] Microeconomic Perspective - The credit risk of bond-issuing real estate companies has largely been cleared, with only a few companies like Vanke and Evergrande showing relatively high credit spreads[22] - As of June 30, 2025, there are 139 non-state-owned real estate companies with a total credit bond stock of approximately 1.57 trillion yuan, with 94 companies having a total of 1.17 trillion yuan in bonds that have not defaulted[22] - Vanke has received significant financial support from its shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, totaling 231.69 billion yuan in 2025, which covers 88% of its bond repayment needs for the year[23]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 长江电力（600900） 2025H1 电量稳增，国债收益率下行红利标杆 空间打开 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 78,144 | 84,492 | 86,519 | 87,067 | 87,633 | | 同比（%） | 13.48 | 8.12 | 2.40 | 0.63 | 0.65 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 27,245 | 32,496 | 35,028 | 36,715 | 37,087 | | 同比（%） | 14.83 | 19.28 | 7.79 | 4.81 | 1.01 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.11 | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.52 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts to September, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% [1][8] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][8] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may shift market dynamics from "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1][8] Industry Analysis - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of the Bond Connect southbound scheme, allowing more non-bank institutions to invest in Hong Kong's bond market, which could alleviate asset pressure on insurance companies [6][18] - The report notes that the demand for savings remains strong, and with regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, easing pressure from interest rate spreads [6][18] - The valuation of the insurance sector is currently at historical lows, with estimates for 2025 ranging from 0.61 to 0.95 times PEV and 0.99 to 2.15 times PB, indicating significant upside potential [6][18] Company Analysis - Zorui Pharmaceutical is projected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 12% in H1 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 24.3% to 31.06% year-on-year, indicating strong performance [7] - The company is focusing on strategic expansion in the "Wuling Mushroom+" segment, which is anticipated to drive growth in the medium term [7] - The forecasted net profit for Zorui Pharmaceutical for 2025-2027 is estimated at 6.55 billion, 8.41 billion, and 10.41 billion respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 20, 16, and 13 times [7]

Market News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed ongoing high-level trade talks with the U.S., aiming to stabilize economic relations following agreements reached in Geneva and London[6] - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all products from Brazil, contributing to a nearly 3% drop in the Brazilian real against the dollar[7] Industry News - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk launched Grok4, claiming it to be the world's strongest AI model, which has led to a surge in AI-related stocks[8] - In the first half of 2025, China's automotive industry saw production and sales exceeding 15 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 10%[10] - Significant breakthroughs in mineral exploration were reported, with 38 new mineral sites discovered, marking a 31% increase year-on-year, and non-oil mineral exploration investment reaching 6.693 billion yuan, up 23.9%[11] Market Performance - On July 10, 2025, the A-share index rose by 0.48%, with the Shanghai Composite Index also increasing by 0.48%[12] - The North Exchange A-share component stocks totaled 268, with an average market capitalization of 3.069 billion yuan and a trading volume of 16.607 billion yuan, an increase of 664 million yuan from the previous trading day[12] - Among individual stocks, 158 rose, with the top gainers being Guoyi Bidding (30.00%), Guangzi International (29.96%), and Zhongshi Consulting (13.16%) while the biggest losers included Jinbo Bio (3.58%) and Shengnan Technology (3.20%)[13]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 债券通南向通拟扩容，保险资金将打开出海 新窗口 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 10 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 2024/7/10 2024/11/8 2025/3/9 2025/7/8 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《推动普惠保险体系高质量发展，护 航社会稳定与经济发展》 2025-07-09 《保险行业 5 月月报：寿险保费增速 持续向好，财险业务表现稳健》 2025-06-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 【事件】7 月 8 日中国人民银行和香港金融管理局在香港举行的"债券 通周年论坛 2025"上公布了多项债券通优化措施，其中包括完善南向 通机制，拟扩大境内投资者范围至券商、基金、保险、理财等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guanghe Convertible Bonds (127110.SZ) started online subscription on July 9, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 4.9 billion yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net proceeds will be used for the construction of Units 5 and 6 of the Guangdong Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant [4]. - The current bond - floor valuation is 98.62 yuan, and the YTM is 1.66%. The conversion parity is 101.36 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 1.34%. The convertible bond terms are standard, and the dilution rate of the total share capital is 2.58% [4]. - It is expected that the listing price of Guanghe Convertible Bonds on the first day will be between 126.83 and 140.94 yuan, and the subscription success rate is expected to be 0.0140%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [4]. - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) is a large - scale central clean - energy enterprise controlled by the SASAC. Since 2019, its revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown stable growth. Its sales revenue mainly comes from power sales, and its sales net profit margin and gross profit margin remain stable and are significantly higher than the industry average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Basic Information - **Issuance and Subscription Schedule**: The issuance and subscription of Guanghe Convertible Bonds are scheduled from July 7 to July 15, 2025, including steps such as publishing prospectuses, online roadshows, original shareholder priority subscription, and online subscription [10]. - **Basic Terms**: The convertible bond has a code of 127110.SZ, a total issuance scale of 4.9 billion yuan, a term of 6 years, and a subject/issue rating of AAA/AAA. The initial conversion price is 3.67 yuan per share, and the conversion period is from January 15, 2026, to July 8, 2031 [11]. - **Use of Raised Funds**: The raised funds of 490 million yuan will be used for the construction of Units 5 and 6 of the Guangdong Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant [12]. - **Bond and Stock Indicators**: The pure bond value is 98.62 yuan, the pure bond premium rate is 1.40%, the pure bond YTM is 1.66%, the conversion parity is 101.36 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 1.34% [13]. 3.2 Investment Subscription Suggestions - **Expected Listing Price**: Based on comparable targets and empirical results, considering the good bond - floor protection, high rating, and large scale of Guanghe Convertible Bonds, it is expected that the conversion premium rate on the first - day of listing will be around 32%, and the corresponding listing price will be between 126.83 and 140.94 yuan [16][17]. - **Expected Subscription Success Rate**: It is expected that the original shareholder priority subscription ratio will be 77.34%, and the online subscription success rate will be 0.0140% [19]. 3.3 Analysis of the Underlying Stock's Fundamentals 3.3.1 Financial Data Analysis - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Since 2019, CGN's revenue has shown a steady growth trend, with a compound growth rate of 7.35% from 2019 to 2024. In 2024, its revenue reached 86.804 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company also showed stable growth, with a compound growth rate of 2.70% from 2019 to 2024. In 2024, it reached 10.814 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.83% [4][21]. - **Revenue Composition**: The company's revenue mainly comes from power sales, accounting for 70.16%, 75.73%, and 75.96% of the total revenue in the past three years, respectively, and the power sales revenue has shown an overall upward trend [4][22]. - **Profitability and Cost**: From 2019 to 2024, the company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin remained stable and were significantly higher than the industry average. The sales expense ratio remained stable, while the financial expense ratio and management expense ratio gradually decreased [4][29]. 3.3.2 Company Highlights - **Scale and Market Position**: As of the end of June 2024, the total installed capacity of operating and under - construction nuclear power units managed by CGN was 43.814 million kilowatts, accounting for 43.48% of the national total, ranking first in China and second in the world. It has significant scale advantages and strong competitiveness [37]. - **Technical and Experience Advantages**: CGN has accumulated rich experience in nuclear power plant construction and operation management. It has a national engineering technology center, a national key laboratory, and five national energy R & D platforms, leading in the development and application of new nuclear energy technologies [37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 12% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 368 to 388 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.3% to 31.06% [7] - The core products are showing steady growth, with significant results from the expansion of the OTC (over-the-counter) channels, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability [7] - The strategic layout of "Wuling Fungus+" is anticipated to open a second growth curve in the medium term, with plans to invest 20 million yuan in developing unique products related to Wuling Fungus [7] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 3,178 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 23.29% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 655.34 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.06% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.93 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.26 based on the current price [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months (Industry investment rating: Overweight) [49] 2. Core Views of the Report - Solid-state batteries offer stronger safety and higher energy density but face issues such as low ionic conductivity, poor cycle life, and relatively high costs [2][8][10] - There are diverse technological routes for solid-state batteries, with sulfides being the current mainstream direction [2][17][19] - With increased policy and industrial chain support, the commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, and it is expected that the demand will reach 100 GWh by 2030 [2][22][28] - Considering the accelerated technological iteration of solid-state batteries, the successive establishment of pilot lines, and the continuous emergence of new technologies in equipment and materials, specific companies are recommended for investment [2][44] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Solid-state Batteries: Stronger Safety and Higher Energy Density - Solid-state batteries use non-flammable solid electrolytes instead of liquid electrolytes, achieving higher energy density and stronger safety [6][8][10] - The energy density of solid-state batteries can exceed 500 Wh/kg, breaking through the energy density bottleneck of liquid batteries and enabling longer electric vehicle range [8] - Solid-state batteries are safer because solid electrolytes have a higher melting point and can suppress lithium dendrite growth, reducing the risk of thermal runaway and short circuits [10] - Solid-state batteries have disadvantages such as low ionic conductivity, poor cycle life, and high production costs [12][15] 3.2 Diverse Technological Directions with Sulfides as the Mainstream - Solid-state batteries can be divided into four technological routes: polymers, oxides, sulfides, and halides, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [17][18] - Sulfide solid electrolytes have the greatest potential in the future, with high ionic conductivity, good interface contact performance, and flexibility, making them the key layout direction for mainstream manufacturers [19] 3.3 Increased Policy and Industrial Chain Support, Accelerating Solid-state Commercialization - The national level has successively issued policies to support the development of solid-state batteries, accelerating the industrialization process [22][23] - Battery manufacturers have updated their solid-state progress, with small-scale mass production expected in 2027 and large-scale mass production in 2030 [24][25] - Automobile manufacturers have released solid-state-related plans, with small-scale mass production expected in 2027 and large-scale implementation in vehicles by 2030 [26][27] - With the support of leading enterprises and the industrial chain, the mass production speed of solid-state batteries is expected to exceed expectations, and the cost is expected to approach that of liquid batteries by 2030 [28][30] 3.4 North Exchange Industrial Chain Targets - The solid-state battery industrial chain includes upstream (mineral resources, positive electrodes, negative electrodes, solid electrolytes, production equipment), midstream (cells, batteries, PACK, BMS), and downstream (consumer, power, energy storage, aerospace fields) [33] - Lingge Technology provides an automated overall solution for front-end materials in solid-state batteries and is expected to benefit from the development of the solid-state battery industry [34] - Nakonor is a pioneer in dry electrode equipment, continuously expanding into the solid-state field, and its products are expected to increase in value and contribute to the company's performance [37] - Yuanhang Precision focuses on the R & D of nickel-copper/nickel-aluminum layered composites, aiming to meet the technical requirements of iron-based current collectors for solid-state batteries [39] - The report recommends Nakonor, Yuanhang Precision, and Lingge Technology, and suggests paying attention to other companies such as BTR, Tianma New Materials, Wuhan Landian, Liwang Co., Ltd., Lijia Technology, Yintu Network, and Haixi Communication [2][44]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]