证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260209 科技"祛魅"VS 道指 50000 点时代 ——美 股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（2026 年 2 月 2 日-2026 年 2 月 6 日）市场回顾：发达市场全周累计涨 跌幅归零，新兴市场转跌。从涨幅来看，新兴市场下跌 1.4%。 美股：本周道指领涨，上涨 2.5%，纳指领跌，下跌 1.8%，标普下跌 0.1%。 行业上，材料、工业领涨，信息技术领跌。标普 500 成份股上涨占比 67%。 其中达维塔保健、泰瑞达、泰佩思琦、好时、康宁等领涨。 ◼ 美股因科技股巨额资本开支加深焦虑，且美伊对峙的地缘威胁持续，美股整 体收跌。具体来看： 一是，Capex 从信心的锚转变为利润的黑洞。AI 焦虑席卷科技板块，Capex 支出的逻辑反转，从"增长引擎"到"盈利枷锁"。此前，市场将巨额的资 本开支视为增长的确定性。而现在叙事出现明显转变，Capex 支出变成了投 资回报的焦虑。资本开支依然在以双位数增长，但自由现金却因巨大摊销压 力受损，且 AI 带来的直接收入比如云服务、广告优化并未展现出与之匹配 的爆发性。考虑到英伟达月底财产财报 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 分子胶海外风起，国内管线蓄势破局 2026 年 02 月 09 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025/2/10 2025/6/10 2025/10/8 2026/2/5 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《降息等多因素支持科研上游持续复 苏，重点推荐皓元医药、奥浦迈等》 2026-02-01 《mRNA 疫苗龙头释放积极临床数据 信号，建议关注悦康药业、康希诺等》 2026-01-26 东吴证券研究所 1 / 45 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为 0.14%、3.28%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为 1.41%、0.85%；本周、年初至今恒生生物科技指数涨 跌幅分别为-1.31%、7.34%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢 5.20%、10.41%； 本周中药（2.56%）、医疗服务 ...

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally sound, have been "misjudged" during these shocks and may present better entry points as the market stabilizes [1][6]. - The report indicates that after the liquidity shock, the core logic of commodity markets remains unchanged, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and the potential for recovery in mispriced commodities [6]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs, noting that macroeconomic data and policy expectations have fluctuated, with interest rate cut expectations providing temporary support for gold [2][9]. - It emphasizes the importance of geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in supporting gold prices, while also indicating that the market may experience high volatility in February 2026 [2][9]. Fixed Income - The report provides an analysis of the Hai Tian convertible bond, predicting a listing price between 125.75 and 139.83 CNY, with a conversion premium of approximately 30% [3][10]. - It highlights the company's stable revenue growth and the strategic use of raised funds for infrastructure projects, indicating a solid credit rating and good debt protection [10][11]. Industry Analysis - The report identifies a shift in the semiconductor and storage industry driven by AI demand, suggesting that storage capacity is becoming a critical bottleneck for AI performance [4][12]. - It recommends focusing on companies like SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-capacity storage solutions [4][12]. - The report notes that the chemical sector is expected to see continued improvement in market conditions due to structural changes in demand, particularly from emerging industries [7][12]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on Yum China, highlighting its robust dividend yield and steady revenue growth, with projections for continued expansion in store numbers and profitability [5][13][14]. - It notes that the company has successfully improved operational efficiency and cost management, contributing to its strong financial performance [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery sector is expected to transition from a seasonal low to a peak demand period, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [1] - The report highlights the potential of space photovoltaic technology and solid-state batteries, indicating a promising future for these segments [1] Industry Trends - The power equipment sector saw a 2.2% increase, outperforming the market, with solar energy rising by 3.43% and lithium batteries by 0.77% [3] - In January, the energy storage sector recorded a procurement of 36.3 GWh, with a 42% increase in the average price of 4-hour systems over six months [3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow by over 60% in 2026, driven by new policies and market dynamics [3][4] Company Developments - Ningde Times is positioned as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation and confirmed growth trajectory [4] - Sunpower is recognized as a global leader in inverters, with significant overseas market integration [4] - Other notable companies include Ganfeng Lithium, BYD, and Enjie, all of which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the lithium battery and energy storage markets [4] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 30-50% over the next three years [3] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery and solid-state sectors, such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as well as companies involved in energy storage integration [4] - The report also highlights the potential of humanoid robots and automation technologies, suggesting a significant market opportunity in the coming years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery sector is expected to transition from a seasonal low to a peak demand period, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [1] - The report highlights the potential of space photovoltaic technology and solid-state batteries, indicating a promising future for these segments [1] Industry Trends - The electrical equipment sector saw a 2.2% increase, outperforming the market, with photovoltaic equipment rising by 3.43% and lithium batteries by 0.77% [3] - In January, the energy storage sector recorded a procurement of 36.3 GWh, with a 42% increase in the average price of 4-hour systems over six months [3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 60% growth in 2026, driven by various factors including the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act [3][8] Company Developments - Ningde Times is recognized as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation and confirmed growth trajectory [1] - Other notable companies include Sunshine Power, recognized for its inverter technology, and Siyi Electric, which is positioned well for overseas expansion [1] - BYD reported a decline in new energy vehicle production and sales in January, with a significant drop in both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage, predicting robust demand and growth in both domestic and international markets [3] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery and solid-state sectors, highlighting firms like Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy as key players [1] - The report also suggests that the robotics sector is poised for significant growth, with Tesla's upcoming Gen3 robot expected to drive demand [12]

宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208 预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社融小幅同 比多增 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转》 2026-02-08 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 8 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.08%，较上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.88%， 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.95%，较 上周 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20260208 1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险— —海外宏观与交易复盘 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王茁 执业证书：S0600526010001 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转》 2026-02-08 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大 宗商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that public fund holdings in the construction materials sector have slightly increased but remain at a low level, with the market value of heavy holdings in the construction and materials sectors accounting for 0.42% and 0.71% of A-shares, respectively [13][14] - The concentration of holdings in the construction and materials sectors has decreased, with 47 and 23 stocks held by sample funds, representing 29% and 32% of their respective industries [12][14] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Holding Analysis - The market value of heavy holdings in the construction and materials sectors has increased slightly, with respective shares of 0.42% and 0.71% of A-shares, ranking in the 28th and 26th percentiles over the past decade [13] - The concentration of holdings in the construction and materials sectors has decreased, with 47 and 23 stocks held by sample funds, representing 29% and 32% of their respective industries [12][14] 2. Individual Stock Holdings Analysis - The top five stocks by market value in the construction sector are Jin Chengxin (2.74 billion), China Construction (1.96 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (1.20 billion), Shanghai Port (0.88 billion), and Oriental Iron Tower (0.71 billion) [2] - The top five stocks by market value in the materials sector are Oriental Yuhong (2.24 billion), Sankeshu (2.05 billion), China National Materials (1.61 billion), Conch Cement (1.37 billion), and Huaxin Materials (1.11 billion) [2]

证券研究报告 智能汽车主线周报： 《汽车数据出境安全指引(2026版)》印发，看好智能化 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2026.2.2-2026.2.8 2 ◼ 本周智能汽车行情复盘：我们编撰的智能汽车指数-3.3%，智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）+0.2%，智能汽车指 数（除整车）-0.1%。截至2026年2月6日，智能汽车指数PS(TTM）为14.5x，该估值位于2023年初以来 98%分位数；智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）PS(TTM）为5.7x，该估值位于2023年初以来81%分位数；智能 汽车指数（除整车）PS(TTM）为9.7x，该估值位于2023年初以来79%分位数。智能汽车指数标的禾赛、理 想汽车、星宇股份、开勒股份、小马智行涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）工信部等八部门印发《汽车数据出境安全指引(2026版)》，要求汽车数据处理者应当 通过境内法人主体申报数据出境安全评估；2）Uber公布计划今年内在香港推出Ro ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油产量下降，后续关注美伊谈判进展 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别67.7/63.5美元/桶，较上周分别-0.9/+0.1美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.2/4.2/0.2亿桶，环比-324/- 346/+21/-74万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1322万桶/天，环比-48万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周412台，环比+1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周148部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1603万桶/天，环比-18万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为90.5%，环比-0.4pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量 ...