Core Insights - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector is expected to have the highest earnings growth, while the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is anticipated to show the most significant improvement in performance [2] - The light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors are projected to have high earnings growth in their mid-year reports, whereas the construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are expected to show substantial performance improvements [2] Industry Research - The autonomous logistics vehicle market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the complete commercialization of autonomous logistics vehicles, which are set to reshape urban delivery ecosystems [6] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from the new long-cycle assessment requirements, which will allow insurance companies to invest more aggressively in the market by smoothing out short-term performance fluctuations [7] - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a rebound in oil prices due to increased demand and OPEC+ production adjustments, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.1% and 3.4% respectively [9] - The basic chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in organic silicon prices following the closure of a major production facility by Dow Chemical, which will reduce supply in Europe [10] - The livestock sector is showing signs of recovery with improved pig prices and a long-term upward trend in profitability expected [11] - The copper industry is facing potential supply pressures due to changes in U.S. tariffs and inventory flows, with investment recommendations focusing on several key companies [12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain stable supply and demand dynamics, with a positive outlook for coal prices during the summer peak [13] Company Research - China State Construction Engineering Corporation is highlighted for its competitive dividend yield compared to banks, with stable earnings growth and a strong order book, maintaining a "buy" rating [14] - TCL Technology is recognized for its improving display business profits, although its solar energy segment remains under pressure, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15] - Sunny Optical Technology is expected to benefit from rising optical specifications and increased automotive lens shipments, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being raised [16][17] - Miao Ke Lan Duo is projected to achieve significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable cheese consumption trends, maintaining an "overweight" rating [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The summer national coal trading conference was held, indicating stable coal supply and demand. The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption for 2025, with an overall balanced power supply and demand situation [1] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise, leading to a strong coal price trend. The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the sector remains optimistic, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 628 RMB/ton, up 1.06% week-on-week. The average price of mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi was 475 RMB/ton, unchanged [2] - The average temperature in 28 major cities was 31.67°C, indicating a typical seasonal pattern [3] Production and Capacity - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 62.3%, a 2.6 percentage point increase week-on-week but down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 89.90%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory Levels - As of July 11, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port were 5.6 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week but at a high level for the same period. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 26.89 million tons, down 2.36% week-on-week [4] Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have stable earnings with an "Accumulate" rating. For instance, China Shenhua's EPS is forecasted to be 2.5 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668.SH) [1] Core Views - In a low interest rate environment, high dividend strategies continue to perform well, with leading construction companies like China State Construction offering attractive value [5] - As of July 11, 2025, China State Construction's dividend yield is approximately 4.47%, which is higher than the average yield of major banks at 3.88% [5][11] - The company has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.54, indicating a significant undervaluation compared to historical levels [5] - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, with a cumulative payout ratio of 20.1%, the highest among major state-owned construction enterprises [8] - The company’s new contract signing in the first five months of 2025 reached 1,841.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is 47.49 billion yuan, with a steady growth forecast for the following years [10] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is estimated at 225.77 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.23% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.15 yuan [10] Dividend Policy - China State Construction has a historical average dividend payout ratio of 20.3%, ensuring predictable returns for shareholders [8] - The company plans to maintain stable dividends in 2025, supporting its major shareholder, China State Construction Group, with consistent cash flow [8] Market Position - The construction industry is characterized by high concentration, with state-owned enterprises like China State Construction having strong bargaining power, which enhances asset safety [6] - The report highlights the ongoing government efforts to address debt issues, with significant allocations for debt resolution and project financing [7] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the company’s current valuation metrics, including a PB ratio of 0.54 and a PE ratio of 5, suggest it is undervalued relative to its earnings potential [10][18] - The dividend yield of 4.5% for 2024 is expected to increase to 4.8% by 2027, indicating a favorable return for investors [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] - The report highlights that the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, which could disrupt global copper inventory flows [1][4] - Domestic copper inventory levels are at a near six-year low, indicating potential supply constraints [30] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [2] - As of July 11, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [2] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 403,000 tons as of July 7, 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase [2] Supply - The TC spot price remains low at -43 USD/ton, indicating challenging conditions for smelting profitability [3][59] - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but a 12.9% increase year-on-year [3][63] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has decreased by 836 RMB/ton, suggesting tighter scrap supply [54] Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a potential uptick in demand [3][73] - Domestic air conditioning production is projected to decline, with year-on-year reductions of 12.8% expected in September [92] - The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 13% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 18% [4][33] - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, reflecting a significant decrease [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy guidance has led to a rapid decline in post-slaughter weight, allowing for a rebalancing of volume and price, with positive expectations for pig prices [3] - The long-term perspective indicates that the bottom of the production capacity cycle is becoming clearer, suggesting a potential long-term profit upturn for the sector [3] - The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including pig farming, feed, and planting chains, as well as the pet food sector [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.2681 million pigs, a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55% [2][13] - The average selling price of pigs decreased by approximately 3% month-on-month and about 20% year-on-year, with prices ranging from 13.23 to 15.57 yuan/kg [14][15] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in June was 125.06 kg, down 0.77 kg from May, indicating a trend towards reducing weight [17] Market Dynamics - The national average price for live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg as of July 11, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.52% [28] - The demand for pork is weakening due to high temperatures affecting consumption and rising storage costs, leading to a gradual loosening of supply-demand dynamics [28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture, as well as companies in the feed and animal health sectors like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological [3] - In the planting chain, opportunities are highlighted for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] Other Segments - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2-1.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.1%-103.1% [1]. - The company has implemented a dual strategy focusing on both B-end (industrial catering series) and C-end (instant nutrition series and family dining series) to strengthen its market position in the cheese sector [3]. - The company has confirmed stock incentive expenses of 18.6869 million yuan in Q2 2025, yet still anticipates rapid profit growth due to increased revenue from cheese products and reduced raw material costs [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 216 million yuan, 324 million yuan, and 457 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.89 yuan [4][10]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 5.377 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.01% [5][10]. Market Position - The company has achieved a market share of over 39% in Q1 2025, maintaining its position as the market leader in cheese sales [3]. - The company is expanding into new retail channels, including instant retail and member stores, to enhance its distribution network [3]. Product Development - The company is focusing on product innovation, launching new items such as cheese sticks and various cheese snacks to cater to consumer preferences [3]. - The company is also developing customized products for large B-end clients to enhance its service capabilities [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed an overall correction, with a weighted REITs index return rate of - 1.26%. Compared with other mainstream asset classes, REITs performed weakly [1][11]. - The trading volume and enthusiasm in the REITs market decreased. The total net inflow of main funds was 7.483 million yuan, and the total amount of block trades reached 628.09 million yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][3][32]. - There were no new REITs products listed in the primary market this week, and the status of the first - issue project of "Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "Feedback Received" [4][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the major asset level**: The secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs corrected. The returns of China's public REITs were - 1.26%, ranking at the bottom among mainstream asset classes [11]. - **At the underlying asset level**: Both equity - type and franchise - type REITs showed a downward trend, with franchise - type REITs having a smaller decline. Among different underlying asset types, energy - type REITs had the smallest decline this week [16][18]. - **At the single - REIT level**: 8 REITs rose and 60 REITs fell. The top three in terms of increase were Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT, and Southern SF Logistics REIT [22]. 3.1.2 Transaction Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The total trading volume of public REITs this week was 2.75 billion yuan, and the ecological and environmental protection - type REITs led in the average daily turnover rate during the period. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure, park infrastructure, and consumption infrastructure; the top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were ecological and environmental protection, affordable rental housing, and consumption infrastructure [26]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The performance of single - REIT trading volume and turnover rate continued to be differentiated. The top three in terms of trading volume were Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT, Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, and Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT; the top three in terms of trading amount were Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT [29]. 3.1.3 Main Net Inflow and Block Trade Situation - **Main net inflow situation**: The total net inflow of main funds this week was 7.483 million yuan, indicating a decline in market trading enthusiasm. The top three underlying asset types in terms of net inflow were consumption infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and affordable rental housing. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow were CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT, Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, and CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy REIT [32]. - **Block trade situation**: The total amount of block trades this week reached 628.09 million yuan, an increase from the previous week. The highest single - day block - trade turnover was on Thursday, July 10, 2025. The top three REITs in terms of block - trade turnover were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, and Huaxia Shenzhen International REIT [33]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects - As of July 11, 2025, the number of China's public REITs products reached 68, with a total issuance scale of 177.061 billion yuan. Transportation infrastructure had the largest issuance scale, followed by park infrastructure [38]. - No new REITs products were listed this week [39]. 3.2.2 Projects to be Listed - There were 28 REITs in a to - be - listed state, including 16 first - issue REITs and 12 to - be - expanded REITs. The status of the first - issue project of "Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "Feedback Received" [44].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: PB-ROE-50 - **Model Construction Idea**: The PB-ROE-50 model selects stocks based on a combination of Price-to-Book (PB) ratio and Return on Equity (ROE), aiming to capture value and profitability factors[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - Stocks are ranked based on their PB and ROE metrics - A portfolio is constructed by selecting the top 50 stocks with the best combined PB and ROE scores - The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain the factor exposure[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates the ability to generate excess returns in certain market conditions, particularly in capturing value and profitability factors[23] 2. Model Name: Block Trade Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages the information embedded in block trades, focusing on stocks with high block trade transaction amounts and low volatility in transaction amounts[29] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify stocks with high "block trade transaction amount ratio" and low "6-day transaction amount volatility" - Construct a portfolio based on these criteria and rebalance monthly[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the excess return potential of block trade-related stocks, particularly those with high transaction amounts and low volatility[29] 3. Model Name: Private Placement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on stocks involved in private placements, aiming to capture the event-driven effects of private placements on stock performance[35] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use the shareholder meeting announcement date as the event trigger - Incorporate market capitalization, rebalancing frequency, and position control into the portfolio construction process - Construct a portfolio based on these parameters[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the investment opportunities arising from private placement events, though its effectiveness may vary depending on market conditions[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. PB-ROE-50 Model - **Excess Return (This Week)**: - CSI 500: -0.56% - CSI 800: -0.38% - All Market: 0.92%[24] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: - CSI 500: 2.99% - CSI 800: 6.41% - All Market: 9.28%[24] - **Absolute Return (This Week)**: - CSI 500: 1.39% - CSI 800: 0.73% - All Market: 2.47%[24] - **Year-to-Date Absolute Return**: - CSI 500: 8.41% - CSI 800: 9.44% - All Market: 16.07%[24] 2. Block Trade Portfolio - **Excess Return (This Week)**: 1.22% - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 25.89% - **Absolute Return (This Week)**: 2.78% - **Year-to-Date Absolute Return**: 33.71%[30] 3. Private Placement Portfolio - **Excess Return (This Week)**: 0.05% - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 8.72% - **Absolute Return (This Week)**: 1.59% - **Year-to-Date Absolute Return**: 15.48%[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing systematic risk[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and market returns - Divide by the variance of market returns to derive the beta coefficient - $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ - Where $R_i$ is the stock return, and $R_m$ is the market return[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures systematic risk effectively and is widely used in portfolio construction and risk management[18] 2. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the tendency of stocks with high past returns to continue performing well in the future[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cumulative return of a stock over a specific look-back period (e.g., 6 months or 12 months) - Rank stocks based on their cumulative returns and construct a portfolio of top-ranked stocks[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in capturing trends in stock performance but may underperform in reversal markets[18] 3. Factor Name: Valuation Factor (e.g., PB, PE, PS) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation of stocks based on financial metrics like Price-to-Book (PB), Price-to-Earnings (PE), and Price-to-Sales (PS)[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the PB, PE, or PS ratio for each stock - Rank stocks based on these ratios and construct a portfolio of low-ratio stocks (value stocks)[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: Valuation factors are effective in identifying undervalued stocks but may underperform during growth-driven market phases[18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **Weekly Return**: 0.48%[18] 2. Momentum Factor - **Weekly Return**: -0.44%[18] 3. Valuation Factor - **Weekly Return**: - PB: 2.57% (CSI 500)[14] - PE: 0.37% (CSI 300)[13] - PS: 1.26% (CSI 300)[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1]. Core Insights - The recent notification from the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of long-term assessments for state-owned commercial insurance companies, aiming to enhance their stable operation and increase their market participation [1][3]. - The adjustment in the assessment criteria for net asset return rates and capital preservation rates aims to encourage long-term investment strategies among insurance companies [3][4]. - The report highlights that the long-cycle assessment will help alleviate the impact of short-term market fluctuations on performance, thereby increasing the willingness of insurance funds to enter the market [8][9]. Summary by Sections Background - The regulatory environment is being optimized to promote long-term investments, with a series of measures introduced to address the barriers faced by insurance funds in making long-term investments [2]. - Key measures include increasing the A-share investment ratio and stability of commercial insurance funds, as well as simplifying the regulatory ratios for equity assets [2]. Content - The assessment weight for the 3-5 year cycle has been raised to 70%, with the new evaluation method combining annual, 3-year, and 5-year indicators [3][4]. - The notification introduces a new assessment requirement for the preservation and appreciation rate of state-owned capital, aligning it with the assessment method for net asset return rates [4]. Impact - The long-cycle assessment system is expected to facilitate the entry of insurance funds into the market, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, which has been squeezing profit margins for insurance companies [8][9]. - Increasing the proportion of equity investments is anticipated to enhance the investment yield elasticity for insurance companies, thereby providing a buffer against interest margin losses [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite potential pressures on new business growth, the ongoing optimization of product structures and the increase in floating income products will support the net profit value (NBV) [15]. - It recommends specific insurance stocks that are likely to benefit from these trends, including New China Life Insurance, China Life Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance [15].