[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业:24 年 12 月 REITs 月报 完善审核规则，低息预期助推行情 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 房地产 沪深300 [Table_Contacts] 联系人： 胡正维 huzhengwei@gf.com.cn 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 36 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-13 12 月交易所完成了常态化发行阶段下审核体系最后一环的建设。12 月 27 日，沪深交易所修订《REITs 业务指引—审核关注事项》，在原有 框架下根据发改委最新政策要求以及三年以来的审核实 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping duties for vanillin from China has been announced, with a tax rate of 186.20% for Chinese producers/exporters, expected to finalize by May 30, 2025 [5] - Vanillin, known as the "king of food flavorings," has a global consumption of over 20,000 tons annually, with China's market consumption around 2,000-2,500 tons [5] - The market for vanillin is highly concentrated, with China being a major supplier globally, exporting 17,500 tons by 2023, including 2,617 tons to the U.S. and 4,789 tons to the EU, accounting for 42.25% of total exports [5] - The U.S. and EU have initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese vanillin, with the U.S. imposing a combined tax rate of 213.53% [5] - Companies with overseas operations, such as those exporting from Thailand, are expected to benefit from tax exemptions and increased profit margins due to regional supply-demand imbalances [5] Summary by Sections - **Industry Rating**: The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2] - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the high concentration of the vanillin market and China's dominant role in production and export [5] - **Regulatory Environment**: The report discusses the implications of anti-dumping and countervailing duties imposed by the U.S. and EU on Chinese vanillin exports [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests that companies with overseas production bases will have a competitive advantage in the current regulatory landscape [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5][15]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75, which expands the borrowing capacity for domestic institutions and promotes capital inflow, enhancing liquidity in foreign currencies and stabilizing the RMB exchange rate [5][6]. - The widening interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is a key driver of cross-border capital flows, with the U.S. dollar appreciating approximately 5% against the offshore RMB since October last year, primarily due to increased fiscal spending by the Biden administration and expectations of inflation [5][10]. - The report emphasizes that the current policy focus is on improving domestic nominal price trends and expected returns in the real sector, which is expected to stabilize the exchange rate as fiscal policies increasingly target demand [5][10]. Summary by Sections Cross-Border Financing - Cross-border financing refers to domestic institutions borrowing funds from non-residents in both domestic and foreign currencies, managed under a macro-prudential framework established by the PBOC since 2016 [5][8]. - The adjustment of the macro-prudential parameter allows for a higher risk-weighted balance limit for cross-border financing, enabling institutions to engage in more borrowing within the set limits [5][8]. Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has implemented various tools to manage exchange rates, including issuing offshore RMB central bank bills and adjusting the macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing [5][6]. - The report outlines that the PBOC has sufficient tools to manage foreign exchange, including adjusting the counter-cyclical factor and intervening in foreign exchange reserves [5][6]. Market Performance - The report includes a comparative performance chart showing the banking sector's performance against the CSI 300 index, indicating a projected increase in bank stock prices over the next year [3][5]. - The report provides a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key banks, all rated as "Buy," with expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 and 2025 [6].

金融工程|定期报告 2025 年 1 月 12 日 证券研究报告 | | | | 由工程:成交热度边际减弱 | | | 分析师: | | 安宁宁 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | A 股量化择时研究报告 | | | | | | SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | | | 市场回顾（本期是指 2025年１月６日—2025年１月10日） | | | | | | | 0755-23948352 | | | 结构表现 | 中证 沪深 | | 中证 | 中证 | 中证 | 国证 分析师: | anningning@gf.com.cn | 张钰东 | | | | 100 500 800 1000 2000 | 300 | | | | | | | | | (涨幅) | -0.99% -1.13% -1.08% -1.12% -1.43% -0.89% | | | | | | SAC 执证号: S0260522070006 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The internationalization of top investment banks is essential for overall performance growth, with firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Nomura maintaining international business revenue at around 30% [7][19] - The international business development of leading investment banks shares commonalities, such as serving domestic enterprises going abroad and focusing on mature economic regions [7][19] - The internationalization strategies of top investment banks differ in execution, particularly in wealth management, investment banking, and capital intermediary services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Internationalization Process and Common Experiences of Top Investment Banks - The internationalization of investment banks is driven by the need to support domestic enterprises in their global expansion, relying on their domestic business strength [19][38] - Leading investment banks have established a significant presence in key international markets, with Goldman Sachs maintaining over 35% of its revenue from international operations [19][20] 2. Business Strategies and Pathways for Internationalization - Wealth management and asset management businesses focus on cross-border investment needs, with a strategic emphasis on North America and Europe [7][19] - Investment banking operations vary by region, with U.S. banks focusing on outbound demand while Japanese banks cater to domestic cross-border needs [7][19] 3. Domestic Insights and Implications - The current period is seen as a golden opportunity for Chinese securities firms to deepen their internationalization, supported by favorable policy environments [7][19] - Major Chinese investment banks like CITIC, CICC, and Huatai are expanding their international presence, with a focus on retail and institutional business [7][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in national crop variety approvals from "quantity growth" to "quality breakthroughs," with a total of 1,379 new crop varieties approved [16] - The number of approved varieties has been declining since 2021 due to increased approval standards, which is expected to reduce market homogenization and competition intensity [16] - The report emphasizes the continuous increase in the number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties, with the number of "three-good varieties" rising from 22 in 2022 to 31 in 2024 [31] - For corn, the focus has shifted to high-density, high-yield varieties suitable for mechanized harvesting, with 47 new varieties approved for planting densities of 5,500 plants per mu or more [31] Summary by Sections Section 1: Changes in National Variety Approvals - The report notes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs approved 405 rice varieties, 888 corn varieties, 50 cotton varieties, 34 soybean varieties, and 2 wheat varieties as of December 31, 2024 [16] - The approval process has become more stringent since 2021, leading to a significant decrease in the number of approved varieties [16][17] Section 2: Rice Variety Developments - The number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties has been increasing, with 31 new varieties approved in 2024 [31] - Leading companies like Longping High-Tech and Qianyuan High-Tech have a significant share of the approved varieties, with 31 and 59 new rice varieties respectively [32] Section 3: Corn Variety Developments - The report indicates that since 2023, the main focus for corn breeding has been on high-density, high-yield varieties, with 47 new varieties approved for higher planting densities [31] - Leading companies have increased their share of approved varieties, with notable improvements in high-density performance [31] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, Qianyuan High-Tech, and Kangnong Seeds due to their strong performance in new variety approvals [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The increase in Komatsu's working hours in December indicates a positive outlook for traditional demand in the engineering machinery sector. In December 2024, Komatsu's working hours in China reached 108 hours, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, marking seven consecutive months of positive growth [6][7] - The recovery of excavator sales in 2024 is driven by new demand and replacement policies, with significant regional disparities. A total of 201,131 excavators were sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, with domestic sales up by 11.7% [6][7] - The overseas market is also showing signs of recovery, with all regions reporting positive working hours in December 2024, which is significant for future demand [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the recovery in excavator sales is crucial for the growth in 2025, with traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate expected to drive demand [2][6] Market Performance - December 2024 saw a notable increase in working hours for Komatsu, which serves as a barometer for traditional demand in construction machinery [6][7] - The report indicates that the domestic excavator market has shown a clear turning point, with main manufacturers starting to realize profits [6][7] Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, while also suggesting to keep an eye on Shantui [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The gas turbine industry is experiencing a favorable trend due to the high demand for overseas data centers, particularly in North America, where gas turbines are increasingly used as primary power sources due to the instability of the electric grid [8] - Major cloud service providers are significantly investing in data center construction, with Microsoft planning to invest approximately $80 billion in AI data centers for the fiscal year 2025 [8] - The global order volume for gas turbines is expected to increase by 50% by 2026, driven by the growth of data centers, with GE Vernova anticipating securing 20 GW of global gas turbine orders annually over the next four years [8] - The market for gas turbines is concentrated among a few global leaders, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova, which together hold 76% of the market share [8] - Domestic manufacturers in China are primarily focused on light gas turbines, with ongoing efforts to replace heavy gas turbines, presenting significant opportunities for local suppliers of turbine components [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Gas turbines are essential for large data centers in North America, which typically require medium (10-100 MW) or heavy gas turbines (over 100 MW) as primary power sources due to high electricity consumption [8] Market Dynamics - The demand for gas turbines is surging as major cloud companies ramp up data center construction, leading to a robust market environment [8] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Yingliu Co., Ltd. (for gas turbine blades) - Liande Co., Ltd. (supplier of castings for Caterpillar gas turbines) - Haomai Technology (for gas turbine casings) - Attention is also advised for Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. (supplier of steel structures for Siemens gas turbines) [8]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 新集能源（601918.SH） Q4 业绩预告好于预期，大股东增持彰显中长期发展信心 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 前次评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-09 | | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 | | | 80% | | -12% 6% 25% 43% 62% 80% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 新集能源 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author] 沈涛 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 | | | SFC CE No. AUS961 | | | 010-59136686 | | | shentao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 安鹏 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 | | | SFC CE No. BNW176 | | | 021-38003693 | | | anpeng@ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Muyuan Foods (002714 SZ) with a target price of 49 34 RMB [3] Core Views - Muyuan Foods achieved a net profit of 17 6-19 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 498 7%-522 2% [7] - The company's 2024 slaughter volume exceeded 71 million heads, successfully meeting the annual target with a 12 2% year-on-year increase [7] - Muyuan Foods' breeding efficiency continues to improve, with PSY reaching over 29 and a complete breeding cost of 13 1 RMB/kg in November 2024 [7] - The company's sow inventory increased by 196,000 heads in Q4 2024, supporting future slaughter volume growth [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 110 861 million RMB in 2023 to 149 413 million RMB in 2026 [2] - Net profit is expected to recover significantly from -4 263 million RMB in 2023 to 26 755 million RMB in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to increase from -0 79 RMB in 2023 to 4 90 RMB in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from -6 8% in 2023 to 22 5% in 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - Muyuan Foods' slaughter volume reached 21 46 million heads in Q4 2024, a 27 7% year-on-year increase [7] - The company's complete breeding cost decreased to 13 1-13 3 RMB/kg in Q4 2024, maintaining industry leadership [7] - Muyuan Foods aims to reduce the complete breeding cost to 12 RMB/kg in 2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 19 58x in 2022 to 7 61x in 2026 [2] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 22 09x in 2023 to 4 08x in 2026 [2] - The target price of 49 34 RMB is based on a 15x PE multiple for 2025 [7]