Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Insights - The DTC channel is under short-term pressure, and the FY2026 Q1 guidance is below expectations [2][6] - The company reported FY2025 revenue of $4.986 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with a gross margin of 57.9% [6][9] - The management expects double-digit revenue growth for FY2026, with HOKA brand growth around 15% and UGG brand growth in the single digits [9] Financial Performance - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.022 billion, exceeding market expectations of $1.001 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [6] - The gross margin for FY2025 Q4 was 56.7%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in full-price sales of UGG [6] - The company’s inventory at the end of the quarter was $495.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [6] Regional and Channel Performance - In FY2025 Q4, UGG brand revenue was $2.531 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [6] - DTC channel revenue for FY2025 Q4 was $410 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% [6] - HOKA brand revenue for FY2025 was $2.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with DTC revenue growth of 23% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026 are estimated at $5.412 billion, with a growth rate of 8.6% [8] - The expected diluted EPS for FY2026 is $6.70, with a projected P/E ratio of 15.6 [8][9] - The company aims to maintain profitability through selective price increases and optimizing production efficiency [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The outdoor performance department has shown strong performance, with rapid store expansion in the Greater China region [2] - The company reported a revenue of $1.473 billion for FY2025 Q1, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company has raised its FY2025 revenue guidance to a year-on-year increase of 15%-17% [9] Financial Performance - The technical apparel department generated $664 million in revenue for FY2025 Q1, a year-on-year increase of 32%, surpassing market expectations of $631 million [3] - The outdoor performance department's revenue reached $502 million for FY2025 Q1, a year-on-year increase of 29%, exceeding market expectations of $452 million [3] - The company expects a revenue growth of 20%-22% for the technical apparel department in 2025 [3] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company plans to close some cooperative stores in the Greater China region in 2025, focusing on store optimization rather than expansion [3] - The Salomon brand has seen over 60% year-on-year sales growth in the Greater China and Asia-Pacific regions [3] - The company anticipates reaching 300 stores in China by the end of 2025 [3] Profitability Metrics - The adjusted gross margin improved to 58.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points [8] - The adjusted operating profit for FY2025 Q1 was $232 million, a year-on-year increase of 79% [8] - The diluted EPS for FY2025 Q1 was $0.27, exceeding market expectations of $0.16 [8] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $6.09 billion, $6.96 billion, and $7.90 billion for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 14%, and 14% [10] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is $0.71, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) as of May 29, 2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - Xiaomi Group achieved record highs in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, with revenue approximately 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit around 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments reached 40 million units, marking seven consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth. The company also delivered 75,869 units of the Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles [6]. Market Position - Xiaomi's smartphone business generated approximately 50.6 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. The company's global smartphone market share stood at 14.1%, maintaining a top-three position for the 19th consecutive quarter [6][7]. Product Development - The revenue from smart home appliances surged by 113.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant increases in air conditioner, refrigerator, and washing machine shipments [7]. Automotive Expansion - The smart electric vehicle segment generated 18.1 billion yuan in revenue, with 75,869 units of the Xiaomi SU7 series delivered. The company has opened 235 automotive sales stores across 65 cities in mainland China as of March 31, 2025 [7]. Internet Services Growth - Internet revenue reached 9.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with a gross margin of 76.9%, up 2.7 percentage points. The global monthly active user count reached 719 million, a 9.2% increase year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenues of 484.5 billion yuan, 682.9 billion yuan, and 901.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 44.5 billion yuan, 59.7 billion yuan, and 84.4 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 27.7x, 20.6x, and 14.6x [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic active equity funds currently use the CSI 300 as the main benchmark index, with China Securities Index Co., Ltd. dominating the market. The US benchmark index system is more diversified than China's, and the Russell 2000 series of indices are relatively easier to outperform [9]. - When selecting a performance benchmark, one should comprehensively consider three factors: the suitability of the index characteristics and investment style, minimizing the impact of portfolio rebalancing, and maximizing the probability of outperforming the benchmark. Additionally, referring to the US experience, using style - based benchmarks can increase the probability of outperforming the benchmark compared to using broad - based indices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Benchmark Index System - **Benchmark Concentration**: The current benchmark index for domestic active equity funds is mainly the CSI 300. Among 4,517 active equity funds, the performance benchmark index involves 268 indices issued by 14 index providers, with China Securities Index Co., Ltd. having a dominant position. The proportion of funds using the CSI 300 as the performance benchmark reaches 49.83% [13]. - **Benchmark Types**: Most performance benchmarks are broad - based indices, followed by thematic indices, and then industry indices. Some thematic funds still use broad - based indices as benchmarks, resulting in large performance deviations [16]. - **Representative Benchmarks**: - **CSI 300**: Composed of 300 large - cap stocks, adjusted semi - annually. It features large market capitalization, high - quality earnings, and high dividends. The industry is mainly composed of banks, non - bank financials, and electronics. Active equity funds are underweight in banks and non - bank financials and overweight in electronics and pharmaceuticals compared to the CSI 300 [20]. - **CSI 800**: Similar to the CSI 300, composed of the CSI 500 and the CSI 300. It is adjusted semi - annually. The industry is mainly composed of banks, electronics, and non - bank financials. Active equity funds are overweight in electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles and underweight in non - bank financials, banks, and utilities compared to the CSI 800 [23]. - **CSI 500**: Composed of 500 mid - cap stocks, adjusted semi - annually. It has a more balanced exposure to various factors. The industry is mainly composed of electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment. Active equity funds are overweight in food and beverages, electronics, household appliances, and automobiles and underweight in non - bank financials, computers, and national defense and military industries compared to the CSI 500 [26]. - **CSI A500**: Composed of 500 leading stocks in sub - industries, adjusted semi - annually. It has a similar exposure to various factors as the CSI 300. The industry is mainly composed of electronics, banks, and power equipment. Active equity funds are overweight in electronics and pharmaceutical biology and underweight in banks and non - bank financials compared to the CSI A500 [29]. - **Alternative Benchmarks**: - **CSI 700**: Composed of 700 mid - large - cap stocks, equivalent to excluding the largest 100 stocks from the CSI 800. It is adjusted semi - annually. The industry is mainly composed of electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank financials. Active equity funds are overweight in electronics, power equipment, and automobiles and underweight in non - bank financials and computers compared to the CSI 700 [34]. - **CSI 1000**: Composed of 1000 small - mid - cap stocks, adjusted semi - annually. It has stronger momentum and volatility compared to the CSI 500. The industry is mainly composed of electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment. Active equity funds are overweight in food and beverages, electronics, and automobiles and underweight in computers, chemicals, and media compared to the CSI 1000 [37]. - **CSI All - Share Index**: Composed of 4,961 constituent stocks, adjusted semi - annually. It is similar to the Wind All - A Index, except that it excludes ST, *ST stocks, and newly - listed stocks (listed for less than 3 months). The industry is mainly composed of electronics, pharmaceutical biology, banks, and power equipment. Active equity funds are overweight in electronics and power equipment and underweight in non - bank financials, banks, and computers compared to the CSI All - Share Index [40]. - **Other Benchmarks**: - **STAR 50 and ChiNext 50**: Still used by some equity funds as performance benchmarks, but their industry distributions are not uniform. The STAR 50 index components are mainly concentrated in the electronics industry, while the ChiNext 50 is mainly in the power equipment industry [43]. - **MSCI China A - Share Index**: The most widely used foreign - funded index as a performance benchmark. It emphasizes foreign - investability, with 561 constituent stocks, leaning towards mid - large - cap stocks. The industry is mainly composed of banks, electronics, and non - bank financials. Its style is similar to the CSI 300, but with slightly weaker large - scale, high - liquidity characteristics. Using foreign - funded indices as performance benchmarks requires paying usage fees, which is a disadvantage [46]. - **Thematic and Industry Benchmarks**: - **Thematic Benchmarks**: Almost all thematic benchmark indices for active equity funds are CSI thematic indices, including strategic emerging industries, domestic consumption themes, and dividends [47]. - **Industry Benchmarks**: The industry benchmark indices for active equity funds are mainly CSI industry indices, including CSI pharmaceuticals, CSI major consumption, CSI All - Share Semiconductor, and CSI optional consumption. There are also Shenwan industry indices and CITIC industry indices [48]. 3.2 US Benchmark Selection Experience - **US Benchmark System**: The US performance benchmark system is more diversified than China's. Representative indices include the S&P 500, Russell 3000, and Russell 2000. Style - based indices include the Russell 1000 Value and Russell 1000 Growth. Overseas indices include the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets. Only 7.35% of funds use secondary benchmarks [53]. - **Representative Benchmarks in the US**: - **S&P 500**: The most widely used performance benchmark, composed of 500 large - cap stocks. The industry is mainly composed of information technology, finance, and communication services. The proportion of information technology is significantly higher than that of the CSI 300, while the proportions of finance, industry, daily consumption, and raw materials are significantly lower [57]. - **Russell 3000**: Composed of 3000 stocks, covering a wide range of samples from large - cap to small - cap stocks. Its industry distribution is very similar to that of the S&P 500 [62]. - **Russell 2000**: Composed of 2000 small - cap stocks, mainly used to measure the performance of small - cap stocks. The industries with relatively high proportions are industry, finance, and healthcare [67]. - **Style - Based Benchmarks in the US**: Some US equity funds choose the Russell 1000 Value/Growth as performance benchmarks. Both have a large - cap style. The industry weights of the Russell 1000 Value are relatively balanced, while the Russell 1000 Growth is mainly in the information technology industry [70]. 3.3 How to Select a Suitable Performance Benchmark - **Suitability of Index Characteristics and Investment Style**: The CSI All - Share Index, CSI A500, CSI 800, and CSI 300 have better stability of constituent stocks. The CSI All - Share Index has the lowest average regular adjustment ratio in the past five years, and although it has a relatively large number of temporary adjustments, the adjustment ratio is very small, making it a relatively stable benchmark index [76]. - **Minimizing the Impact of Portfolio Rebalancing**: Using the CSI A500 as a benchmark can minimize the impact of portfolio rebalancing. Compared with the industry allocation ratio of active equity funds, the CSI A500 has the smallest Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), while the ChiNext 50 and STAR 50 have the largest deviations [79]. - **Maximizing the Probability of Outperforming the Benchmark**: The Russell 2000 series of indices in the US are relatively easier to outperform. In China, the CSI 700 has the highest average annual probability of being outperformed by active equity funds, with a relatively stable probability [82]. - **Referring to the US Experience**: US funds widely use style - based benchmarks. Whether it is a growth - style or value - style fund, using a style - based benchmark index that is more suitable for its investment strategy can increase the probability of outperforming the benchmark compared to using the S&P 500 as a benchmark. In China, one can consider using the 300 Growth/Value or 800 Growth/Value as performance benchmarks for market - wide funds with certain style tendencies [88].

Group 1: Motorcycle Industry - In April 2025, motorcycle exports from China reached 1.46 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [3] - Exports of motorcycles with displacement greater than 250cc saw a significant increase, with 62,000 units exported, a year-on-year growth of 92.0% [3] - Major export regions include Latin America (571,000 units) and Africa (454,000 units), both maintaining high growth rates of 50.0% and 102.5% respectively [4] Group 2: Ideal Automotive - The total number of new energy vehicles is expected to grow by 30% year-on-year in 2025, with a projected 14.2 million units sold [7] - In optimistic scenarios, the market for new energy vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to expand significantly, with sales reaching 432,900 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 96.2% [8] - Ideal Automotive's sales forecast for 2025 is approximately 610,000 units under optimistic conditions, with a revenue projection of 168.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [9] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - In April 2025, the express delivery industry experienced a business volume growth of 19.1%, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 6.1% [11] - The average revenue per delivery fell to 7.43 yuan, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price competition in the industry [11] - Major companies like YTO Express and SF Express reported business volume growth rates of 25.27% and 29.99% respectively, exceeding the industry average [13] Group 4: Meituan - In Q1 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with a net profit of 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 87% growth [15] - The core local business revenue grew by 18% to 64.3 billion yuan, driven by increased transaction volumes and reduced related subsidies [16] - Meituan's new business segment saw a revenue increase of 19% to 22.2 billion yuan, primarily due to growth in retail and overseas operations [19]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry shows resilience in business volume growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% in April 2025, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 6.1% and social consumer retail sales at 5.1% [6][12] - The industry continues to experience mild price competition, with the average revenue per package declining to 7.43 yuan, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [6][16] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the express delivery industry, highlighting opportunities for investment in leading companies [6][45] Industry Volume and Price - In April 2025, the express delivery business volume growth rates for first, second, and third-tier regions were +18.4%, +21.1%, and +28.4%, respectively, indicating higher growth in non-grain-producing areas compared to grain-producing areas [28] - The average revenue per package in first, second, and third-tier regions saw year-on-year declines of -6.5%, -8.6%, and -11.3%, respectively, with price competition shifting towards non-grain-producing areas [28] Company-Specific Volume and Price - In April 2025, the business volume growth rates for YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express were +25.27%, +13.41%, +20.98%, and +29.99%, respectively, with YTO, Shentong, and SF Express outperforming the industry average [39] - The average revenue per package for YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and SF Express was 2.14, 1.91, 1.97, and 13.49 yuan, respectively, with SF Express experiencing the largest price decline [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Meituan is actively responding to competition in the food delivery sector while awaiting the release of long-term value [3] - The company's Q1 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both revenue and profit metrics [11] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 866 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 18% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [11] - Operating profit reached 106 billion RMB, up 103% year-over-year and 58% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Net profit was 101 billion RMB, reflecting an 87% year-over-year increase and a 62% quarter-over-quarter increase [11] - Non-GAAP EBITDA stood at 123 billion RMB, a 52% year-over-year increase [11] Business Segments - **Food Delivery Business**: In Q1 2025, the food delivery segment saw a steady growth with a year-over-year increase in order volume of 9.3%. The company plans to invest 100 billion RMB over the next three years to enhance the quality of the food service industry [7] - **Meituan Flash Purchase**: This segment maintained strong growth, with over 500 million cumulative transaction users by the end of March 2025. The daily order volume for non-food items exceeded 18 million [7] - **In-store and Travel Business**: The in-store and travel segment reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 20% in Q1 2025, with active merchant numbers increasing by over 25% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 387.3 billion RMB, 447.7 billion RMB, and 510.6 billion RMB respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are 40.9 billion RMB, 54.7 billion RMB, and 67.6 billion RMB for the same years [18] - The target market capitalization for Meituan in 2025 is set at 830.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 136 RMB per share [18][19]

2025 年 05 月 28 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 89 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 公司层面利润率承压，国内同店趋势向好--名创优品/专业连锁Ⅱ(09896/214504) 点评报告（港股美股） 基本业务营运表现强劲，全速推进混合式人工智能落地--联想集团/计算机设备(00992/217101) 点评报告（港 股美股） MDI 价差环比改善，与科威特石化达成合资--万华化学/化学制品(600309/212203) 公司动态研究 市场持续活跃，保障房与交通领涨--资产配置报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、公司层面利润率承压，国内同店趋势向好--名创优品/专业连锁Ⅱ (09896/214504) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：马川琪 S0350523050001 联系人：刘毅 S0350123090035 事件: 名创优品（09896.HK）于 2025 年 5 月 23 日公布 2025Q1 财报。2025Q1 公司总营收为 44.3 亿元，同比+18 ...

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of public REITs has increased to 198.431 billion yuan, up by 5.185 billion yuan from the previous week[21] - The average daily turnover rate has risen to 0.71%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points compared to the previous week[21] Investment Highlights - The weighted average weekly increase for affordable rental housing REITs is 2.57%, leading the market, followed by transportation infrastructure REITs at 2.30%[29] - The cash distribution rate for property REITs averages 3.86%, with consumption infrastructure leading at 4.38% and municipal facilities at 12.83%[38] Market Performance - The CSI REITs total return index rose by 1.20%, outperforming other indices such as the dividend index (0.40%) and the CSI convertible bond index (-0.11%) during the week[24] - The average internal rate of return (IRR) for property REITs is 4.11%, while for concession rights it is 3.88%[38] Trading Activity - The transaction volume for park infrastructure REITs reached 213 million units, the highest among all sectors, followed by affordable rental housing at 120 million units[35] - The turnover rate for affordable rental housing REITs was 1.06%, the highest among all categories[35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price spread of MDI has improved, and a joint venture has been established with Kuwait Petrochemical [5][7] - The company is positioned as a typical example of development driven by technological innovation in the chemical industry, aiming to become a global chemical giant [4] - The short-term profitability of the company is primarily influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is dependent on the ability to innovate and launch milestone products [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the company's stock price is 55.41 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 173.97 billion CNY [3] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 37.1% over the past 12 months [3] Price Spread and Profitability - The MDI price spread index for Q2 2025 is at an average of 70.11, down 7.35 from Q1 2025, indicating a position in the historical 5.83 percentile [6][25] - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be 3.4 billion CNY [6] Key Projects and Developments - A joint venture agreement was signed with Kuwait Petrochemical on April 25, 2025, with an investment of 638 million USD for a 25% stake in a subsidiary [7][35] - Several projects are in progress, including expansions in MDI and HDI production capacities, with expected revenues from new projects totaling 476 billion CNY in 2025 [37] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 197.6 billion CNY, 230.5 billion CNY, and 251.8 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.3 billion CNY, 18.4 billion CNY, and 22.3 billion CNY [11][13]