Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that tariff pressures are expected to ease further, and the off-season destocking performance is better than anticipated. The aluminum industry is likely to experience a continuous trend of destocking and price increases, supported by improving export conditions [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, maintaining a high level of industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,448.5 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20,070.0 per ton [14][20] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20,240.0 per ton, down ¥160.0 from the previous week [20] 2. Production - In May 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, an increase of 123,000 tons month-on-month and 214,000 tons year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in May 2025 was 7.272 million tons, up 189,000 tons month-on-month and 593,000 tons year-on-year [53] 3. Inventory - As of May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 511,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of aluminum rods was recorded at 128,300 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons week-on-week [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a slight increase in the alloying ratio affecting the delivery situation [7] - Demand from downstream sectors is showing signs of weakness, particularly in photovoltaic aluminum and automotive materials, while cable orders remain strong due to state grid demand [7]

Economic Overview - The overall economy shows strong resilience, with supply better than demand, characterized by weak domestic demand and stable exports. The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 improved to 49.5, indicating a slight recovery but still below the neutral level of 50 [7][12] - The manufacturing production index rose above 50 to 50.7, reflecting improved business conditions, while the strategic emerging industries PMI increased to 51, indicating growth in new orders and exports [12][15] Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity environment is characterized by external tightening and internal easing. The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has been delayed, with the first cut potentially pushed to September 2025. Domestic liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose following recent rate cuts [7][28][35] Policy Focus - The policy direction is concentrated on foreign trade, employment, and consumption. Recent measures include accelerating national bond issuance and targeted support for small and micro enterprises, technology industries, and employment stabilization [49][51] - Local governments are implementing consumption-boosting policies, including subsidies for various consumer goods and services, to stimulate domestic demand [52][56] Industry Allocation - The report suggests focusing on the technology, military, and electronics sectors for June 2025. The technology sector is expected to benefit from favorable conditions and catalysts, including significant financial policy announcements and advancements in autonomous driving technology [58] - Specific recommendations include companies in the computer sector such as Haiguang Information and Kingsoft, military firms like Aero Engine Corporation of China, and electronics companies such as Longi Green Energy [65][59][60][61] Computer Sector Insights - The computer sector is supported by strong demand for computing power, as evidenced by Nvidia's revenue growth of 69% year-on-year, reaching $44.1 billion in Q1 FY26, exceeding market expectations [59] - The supply chain for domestic computing is expected to benefit from U.S. export restrictions on certain chip series, enhancing the competitive position of local firms [59] Military Sector Insights - The military sector is anticipated to see accelerated orders as 2025 marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on high-quality development in military construction [60] - The international military trade space is expected to expand, particularly following successful technology showcases at international defense exhibitions [60] Electronics Sector Insights - The electronics sector is poised for growth due to ongoing U.S. technology restrictions, which create opportunities for domestic semiconductor replacements [62] - Developments in autonomous vehicle technology and upcoming major tech events, such as Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, are expected to provide further momentum for the electronics industry [62]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 92 期 观点精粹: 我们认为 Meta 不仅通过 AI 优先的战略构建了世界一流的 AI 内容广告推荐系统和大模型，还有望通过"AI+ 主营业务"实现大规划 AI 货币化变现。我们看好 Meta AI 优先战略，认为公司不仅能凭借全球领先的 GPU 驱 动的生成式 AI 推荐系统推动用户时长与活跃度的进一步增长，还能借助 Advantage+ AI 广告系统进一步提升 广告 CPM，对于开源大模型 Llama，公司也能通过智能眼镜、Click-to-Message、AI 助手互动广告等实现深 度变现。 核心问题一：如何量化 AI 对 Meta 业务的弹性贡献？ AI 推荐系统是 Meta 资本开支的主要方向，公司有望凭借 GPU 驱动的生成式 AI 推荐系统稳固社交龙头地位。 公司于 2024Q1 宣布建成 GPU 驱动的 Reels AI 统一推荐系统，采用 10 万片 H100 GPU，驱动 8%-10%的用 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy, which supports upward consumer spending [22] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering high-end markets, with companies offering quality vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [22] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level autonomous driving technology to become more affordable, increasing its penetration rate [22] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The launch of the Zun Jie S800, priced between 708,000 to 1,018,000 yuan, aims to break the foreign monopoly in the luxury car segment [8][18] - Xiaopeng Motors introduced the MONA M03 Max version starting at 129,800 yuan, with strong sales performance noted [9][19] - BYD, Geely, and Chery have initiated limited-time promotional offers to boost sales [10][20] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index from May 26 to May 30, with a decline of 4.1% [11][23] - The report notes a significant drop in the stock prices of major automotive companies during the same period [11][23] Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Ideal Auto reported Q1 2025 revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a projected delivery of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2 2025 [21][12] - The report recommends several companies, including Ideal Auto, Jianghuai Auto, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, as key players to watch in the high-end market [22] Industry Indicators - The report tracks various industry indicators, including monthly sales and inventory levels, to assess market health [17][18]

Group 1: Key Points on Tariff Policy - The U.S. government plans to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10%[4] - In FY2024, U.S. tariff revenue is projected to be approximately $77.04 billion, accounting for 1.57% of total fiscal revenue[12] - In April 2025, U.S. tariff revenue reached $16.3 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of about 86% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 130%[12] Group 2: Economic Implications - The IMF has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession[43] - The proposed tax reform aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, potentially increasing public debt by at least $3 trillion[43] - The U.S. faces significant interest expenses, with FY2024 federal interest payments estimated at $1.13 trillion, and $684.1 billion already spent by April 2025[14] Group 3: Political Considerations - Trump's approval rating was reported at 42%, the lowest during his second term, with only 39% approval for his economic performance[11] - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 are a significant concern for the Trump administration, as historical trends suggest potential losses for the incumbent party[11] - Support for specific proposals, such as increasing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, stands at 49% among voters[11] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. capital markets experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping between 5.5% and 5.97%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 8.2% year-to-date, reflecting market reactions to tariff policies[18] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating increased concerns over fiscal stability[18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the global energy transition and the explosive growth of AI data centers, leading to a robust order book for gas turbines and new growth momentum from emerging fields such as nuclear fusion and low-altitude economy [11]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 30.07 billion, 36.80 billion, and 44.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.15 billion, 5.60 billion, and 7.26 billion yuan [11][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.57% [5]. - The company's Q4 2024 revenue was 6.03 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.31% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.14% [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.89% [7]. Segment Performance Summary - In 2024, revenue from high-temperature alloy products and precision cast steel components was 14.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.69% [6]. - Revenue from nuclear power and other large cast steel components was 6.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.32% [6]. - Revenue from new materials and equipment was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.00% [6]. Order and Market Position Summary - The company has a strong order backlog in the "two-machine" sector, with over 12 billion yuan in orders [9]. - The gas turbine segment saw a 102.8% increase in orders due to global energy transition and AI data center construction [9]. - The company is actively involved in nuclear fusion projects and has successfully developed a new high-heat load component that has passed experimental validation [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global ETF market is steadily expanding. The US market is mature, the Asia - Pacific region is a new growth engine, and the European market leads in ESG - themed investment. Each region has its own characteristics and development trends [7]. - The US ETF market has a rich product matrix, with comprehensive asset and geographical coverage, and continuous product innovation [7]. - The European ETF market is characterized by leading ESG - themed investment, with significant regulatory and innovation advantages [7]. - The Japanese ETF market is deeply involved by the central bank, with a distinct feature of real - estate REITs investment [7]. - The Chinese ETF market is in a historical expansion period, with characteristics of diversified innovation and institutionalized investment, and is moving towards high - quality development [7]. Summary According to the Directory US ETF: Mature Market with a Rich Product Matrix - **Theoretical Basis for Passive Index Investment**: In an efficient market, it's difficult for active funds to beat passive index investment. The effective market hypothesis and empirical research show that most active - type stock funds can't achieve stable Alpha in the long - term, which promotes the rise of passive index investment. ETFs, with advantages such as low cost, high transparency, and strong liquidity, have become the mainstream tool for passive index investment [12][14][18]. - **Market Scale and Growth**: The US ETF market shows strong growth resilience, with its scale growth rate consistently higher than that of mutual funds. As of the end of 2023, the ETF scale reached $8.09 trillion, and the number of ETFs was 3108. ETFs are becoming an important supplement and alternative to traditional mutual funds [23][24]. - **Product System**: The US ETF product system is perfect, mainly stock - type, with a preference for large - cap stocks. The asset coverage is constantly expanding, and digital assets such as Bitcoin ETFs have been innovatively developed. As of 2024, the total scale of 11 approved spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $9 billion [26][28]. - **Active - type ETF**: Active - type ETFs are growing rapidly, accounting for 6.47% of the overall market scale by the end of 2023. There are three parallel disclosure modes to meet different investment strategies and market demands [30][31]. - **Cross - border ETF**: US cross - border ETFs are globally distributed, with an investment proportion of 40.29% in emerging markets as of 2024. The investment in the Asia - Pacific region has grown rapidly, exceeding $100 billion in 2024. Key investment countries include Japan, China, and India [33][34][37]. - **SmartBeta ETF**: There are various types of US SmartBeta ETFs, which have different advantages in different economic cycles and are of differential allocation value [39][40]. - **Leveraged/Short ETF**: The US leveraged/short ETF system is relatively mature, covering multiple asset categories. The scale of leveraged/short ETFs related to cryptocurrencies and volatility has increased significantly in 2023 - 2024, and the total management assets exceeded $120 billion in 2024 [42][43]. European ETF: Leading in ESG - themed Development Globally - **Market Scale and Development Process**: As of the end of 2024, the total management assets of European ETFs reached $2.21 trillion. Since 2000, the European ETF market has developed steadily, with the continuous improvement of the regulatory system and accelerating product innovation in recent years [47][48]. - **Product Structure**: The European ETF market is mainly composed of stock - type ($1.62 trillion) and bond - type ($410.1 billion) ETFs. It also has a certain scale in commodities, currencies, and special assets such as cryptocurrencies [49]. - **Industry - Themed ETF**: The European industry - themed ETF has shifted from industry selection to theme - strategy orientation, going through three development stages, and the proportion of theme - type ETFs has been increasing in recent years [51][52]. - **SmartBeta ETF**: European SmartBeta ETFs are mainly ESG - themed. The regulatory environment attaches great importance to ESG, which promotes the integration of ESG concepts into the design of SmartBeta ETFs [53][54][55]. Japanese ETF: Central - Bank - Dominated and Market - Supplementary - **Market Scale and Development**: As of the end of 2024, the total management assets of Japanese ETFs reached $588.659 billion, with mixed - stock - type ETFs accounting for 97.63%. The market has been growing steadily, and the product system has been diversifying in recent years [57][58]. - **Industry - Themed Investment**: Japanese industry - themed ETFs are highly concentrated in REITs and the financial sector. The REITs ETF system is well - developed, and the REIT index yield is much higher than that of government bonds [59][60][61]. - **Role of the Central Bank**: Since 2010, the Japanese central bank has included ETF purchases in its quantitative easing policy. It has played an important role in stabilizing the market and boosting confidence. As of the end of 2024, the central bank holds about 37 trillion yen of ETF assets [62][63][64]. Chinese ETF Market Future Trend Outlook - **Current Market Situation**: As of April 18, 2025, the total scale of Chinese ETFs has reached 4.02 trillion yuan, showing a rapid growth trend since 2018. Stock - type ETFs are dominant, followed by cross - border and bond - type ETFs. Institutional investors are the main force in the market, preferring broad - based ETFs. Chinese ETFs have a significant fee advantage [68][69][79]. - **Stock - type ETF Structure**: In stock - type ETFs, broad - based index ETFs have the highest scale, and theme - type ETFs are increasing rapidly. In terms of industry investment, the financial sector has the highest proportion, and in terms of theme investment, it focuses on technology hotspots [71][72][75]. - **Strategy and Style Index ETFs**: In strategy index ETFs, the dividend strategy dominates, and in style index ETFs, the growth style leads [76]. - **Future Trends**: - **SmartBeta ETF**: There is still much room for growth in Chinese SmartBeta ETFs. Currently, the dividend strategy dominates, and in the future, innovation is expected in directions such as low - volatility, quality, and ESG integration [83]. - **Index - Enhanced ETF**: Index - enhanced ETFs are becoming an important form of active - type ETFs in China. As of April 18, 2025, 34 index - enhanced ETFs have been issued, covering 12 broad - based indexes, and most of them have achieved positive excess returns relative to their benchmarks [84][85]. - **Cross - border ETF**: Chinese cross - border ETFs are mainly invested in the Hong Kong and US markets. In the future, the investment scope is expected to expand continuously to meet investors' demand for overseas asset allocation [86][87][88]. - **Central Huijin's ETF Purchase**: Since 2023, Central Huijin has significantly increased its ETF holdings, playing a role in stabilizing the market. In the future, its strategy may shift from short - term volatility support to long - term balanced allocation [90][91].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) [1] Core Views - China Tobacco Hong Kong is the only publicly listed company in the Chinese tobacco system, focusing on both organic growth and external expansion strategies. The company is expected to benefit from the integration of overseas assets and has a strong growth outlook [10][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Tobacco Hong Kong was established in 2004 and is the only listed company in the Chinese tobacco system, covering five major business segments: tobacco leaf import and export, cigarette export, new tobacco products, and operations in Brazil. The company reported a revenue of HKD 13.07 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 854 million, up 42.6% year-on-year [9][17]. Business Model - The company operates five main businesses: 1. Tobacco Leaf Import: Revenue of HKD 82.5 billion in 2024, accounting for 63% of total revenue. 2. Tobacco Leaf Export: Revenue of HKD 20.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. 3. Cigarette Export: Revenue of HKD 15.7 billion, up 30.2% year-on-year. 4. New Tobacco Products: Revenue of HKD 1.4 billion, a 4% increase. 5. Brazilian Operations: Revenue of HKD 10.5 billion, a 37% increase [9][22]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth of 10% for 2025, reaching HKD 14.39 billion, and net profit growth of 15%, reaching HKD 978 million. The diluted earnings per share are expected to be HKD 1.41 in 2025 [7][10]. Market Position - China Tobacco Hong Kong has a unique position as the only licensed tobacco company in the Chinese system, which enhances its scarcity and growth potential. The company is well-positioned to leverage its exclusive rights to import and export tobacco products [9][23]. Strategic Insights - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions as a means for China Tobacco Hong Kong to expand its market presence and product offerings, similar to strategies employed by international tobacco giants [10][9].

Group 1: DTC Channel and Financial Performance of Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - The DTC channel is under short-term pressure, with FY2026Q1 guidance falling short of expectations. The company reported FY2025 revenue of $4.986 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [3] - For FY2025Q4, revenue reached $1.022 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 56.7%, benefiting from an increase in full-price sales of UGG products [3][4] - The UGG brand achieved revenue of $2.531 billion in FY2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with DTC revenue growing by 11% [4] Group 2: HOKA Brand Performance - HOKA brand revenue for FY2025 was $2.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with DTC revenue growth slowing to 3% in FY2025Q4 due to market pressures [5] - Management expects DTC channel price pressures to ease after FY2026Q1, with growth dynamics anticipated to recover [5][6] Group 3: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, with adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% [9][10] - The company achieved a global smartphone market share of 14.1%, maintaining a top-three position for 19 consecutive quarters, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1211 yuan, a historical high [10] - Revenue from smart home appliances grew by 113.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong sales in air conditioners and refrigerators [11] Group 4: Amer Sports (AS) - Amer Sports reported Q1 FY2025 revenue of $1.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market expectations [15] - The technical apparel segment saw revenue growth of 32% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from the Arc'teryx brand [16] - The outdoor performance segment achieved revenue of $502 million, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with significant growth in the Greater China region [17] Group 5: Ball Sports Segment - The ball sports segment reported revenue of $306 million, a year-on-year increase of 13%, primarily driven by soft goods [18] - The company expects FY2025 revenue to grow by 15%-17%, with a gross margin of 56.5%-57% [19]