2025 年 05 月 27 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 市场持续活跃，保障房与交通领涨 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《资产配置专题报告：基准偏离度考量下，公募基 金如何配置行业*林加力》——2025-05-19 《资产配置报告：《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 点评——攻守之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口 链弹性*林加力》——2025-05-15 《资产配置报告：国新办发布会点评——资本市场 迎来多重利好*林加力》——2025-05-08 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 力量*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-05-07 《2025 年 5 月大类资产配置报告：宏观不确定性 上升，依旧看好 A 股红利类资产*林加力》—— 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025-05-05 一级市场稳步推进，后续供给可期：年内已成功发行 7 单 REITs 产 品，另有 7 单产品已通过审核等待上市，一级市场发行节奏平稳， 储备项目持续获得进展，为市场注入新的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [1] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's basic business operations are strong, with all main business segments achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in FY2025, and a net profit increase of 37% [6][9] - The company is accelerating the implementation of hybrid artificial intelligence, which is expected to enhance overall performance and market competitiveness [9] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For FY2025, Lenovo Group reported revenue of approximately $69.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.41%, and a net profit of approximately $1.384 billion, up 37.01% [5][6] - In FY2025Q4, revenue was about $16.984 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.50%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.64% [5][6] Business Segments - **Intelligent Devices Group (IDG)**: Achieved revenue of $51 billion in FY2025, a 13% increase, with an operating profit margin of 7.2%, leading the industry [6][7] - **Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG)**: Revenue reached $15 billion, a significant 63% increase, with the second half of the fiscal year turning profitable [7] - **Solutions and Services Group (SSG)**: Generated revenue of approximately $8.5 billion, a 13% increase, with operating profit reaching a record high of $1.8 billion, up 15% [7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are $76.370 billion, $82.733 billion, and $87.208 billion respectively, with non-HKFRS net profits projected at $1.601 billion, $1.874 billion, and $2.218 billion [9][10] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in performance as AI functionalities penetrate the PC and mobile markets [9]

2025 年 05 月 27 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 88 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 存单利率还会上行吗？--固定收益点评 小米发布 YU7，吉利零跑 202025Q1 业绩亮眼--行业周报 利润率持续改善，关注国际扩张表现--同程旅行/旅游及景区(00780/214610) 点评报告（港股美股） 零食量贩龙头，引领万亿元赛道效率变革--鸣鸣很忙/食品饮料(02143/2134) 公司深度研究（港股美股） 老铺黄金(06181.HK)公司深度报告：老铺黄金十问十答--老铺黄金/贵金属(06181/212404) 公司 PPT 报告（港 股美股） 618 宠物经济火热，国产品牌强势崛起--行业周报 本周北证 50 阶段性回调，下周世昌股份/志高机械上会、交大铁发申购--北交所行业普通报告 新消费受关注，保健品、黄酒热度高--行业周报 模型性能不断提升，AI 应用进入兑现期——计算机 AI 应用月度跟踪（2025-05）--行业 PPT 报告 存款利率如期调降，如何影 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks with stable earnings growth and reasonable valuations, particularly in the context of the North Exchange market [8][11]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.68% during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025, closing at 1370.04 points, while the average market capitalization of the 266 constituent stocks is 2.936 billion [5][20]. - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term investment value of the North Exchange remains strong, with a recommendation to focus on undervalued stocks and thematic investments [8][11]. Summary by Sections 1. North Exchange Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the North Exchange A-share market consists of 266 stocks with an average market capitalization of 2.936 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index's performance was -3.68% for the week, compared to -0.18% for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [5][20]. 2. Stock and Industry Performance - In the week from May 19 to May 23, 2025, 41 stocks rose, while 225 fell, resulting in a rise ratio of 15.41%, which is a decrease of 51.88 percentage points week-on-week [27]. - The top five performing industries were Environmental Protection (8.16%), Beauty Care (2.62%), Building Materials (0.97%), Light Industry Manufacturing (-0.90%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (-1.32%). The bottom five were Transportation (-20.33%), Public Utilities (-11.41%), Textiles and Apparel (-8.94%), Nonferrous Metals (-8.77%), and Communications (-7.48%) [33]. 3. Liquidity Tracking - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 35.949 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.65%, with a turnover rate of 4.57% [37]. 4. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed during the week, but Yuli Intelligent submitted a registration for review. Next week, two companies (Shichang Co., Ltd. and Zhigao Machinery) will be reviewed, and one company (Jiaoda Tifa) will be available for subscription [42][43]. 5. Selected Announcements - Notable announcements include a capital increase by KQ Co., Ltd. to enhance business performance and a project investment by Haitai New Energy in Indonesia for solar energy production [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent reduction in deposit interest rates has two characteristics: a relatively large adjustment range and fast follow - up by banks, indicating significant net interest margin pressure on banks. For banks, on the asset side, the requirement for interest rate levels will decrease, and the motivation to allocate bonds will increase due to weak credit issuance and improved bond cost - effectiveness. However, on the liability side, the scale of funds flowing out of the balance sheet may be large, and the pressure on the liability side may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain. For generalized asset management, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds will increase, and the spread of 3Y credit bonds will narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, with the outflow process lasting 2 - 3 months. For investors, credit bonds are a more certain choice, and for interest - rate bonds, new marginal changes need to be observed. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Deposit Interest Rate Cut and Its Impact on the Bond Market - **Characteristics of the Current Cut**: The adjustment range is large. With the 1Y and 5Y LPR both cut by 10BP, the deposit interest rate cuts of large - scale banks are 15BP and 25BP respectively, higher than previous levels. Also, banks have followed up quickly. As of May 22, 2025, 12 joint - stock banks have completed the adjustment, and some city and rural commercial banks are following suit, reflecting the large net interest margin pressure on banks [13]. - **Impact on Institutional Behavior**: - **Banks**: On the asset side, after the deposit interest rate cut, the average liability cost of the six major banks is expected to decrease by 10.3BP. With a large number of fixed - term deposits maturing in the next two years, the liability - side cost pressure will further ease, and the requirement for asset - side yields will decrease. Also, weak credit issuance and the improved cost - effectiveness of bonds increase the motivation to allocate bonds. On the liability side, the large - scale deposit interest rate adjustment may lead to a significant outflow of funds, and the liability - side pressure may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain [17][21][25]. - **Generalized Asset Management**: Referring to previous interest rate cuts, after funds flow out of the balance sheet, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds increases, usually leading to a narrowing of the 3Y credit bond spread. The spread starts to narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, and the outflow process lasts 2 - 3 months [26]. - **Investment Opportunities in the Bond Market**: Credit bonds are a more certain choice for investors, supported by coupon advantages and increased demand from funds flowing out of the balance sheet. Interest - rate bonds are in an oscillating upward phase and need new marginal changes to determine the direction. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [30]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: In the week of May 19 - 23, 2025, liquidity slightly eased. R007 closed at 1.63%, unchanged from the previous week, DR007 closed at 1.59%, down 5BP from the previous week, and the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 1.14%, down 4BP from the previous week [40]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 108,111.6 billion yuan, up 0.2% from the previous week. For generalized asset management, the net financing of fund companies and bank wealth management products was - 848 million yuan and - 5.326 billion yuan respectively [43]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performance interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market were 6.53 and 5.09 respectively, increasing by 0.18 and 0.25 compared to the previous week [48]. - **Asset Scarcity Index**: The "asset scarcity" index slightly increased, with a smaller index value indicating looser liquidity, lower credit bond supply, and higher credit bond demand [58]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [61][65][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio remained unchanged at 106.8% this week. Among generalized asset management institutions, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 113.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week; the fund leverage ratio was 101.9%, down 0.4 percentage points; and the securities firm leverage ratio was 184.9%, down 2.6 percentage points [68]. - **Bank Self - investment Comparison Table**: A comparison table for bank self - investment is provided, showing the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and post - tax and risk - adjusted returns of various assets such as general loans, 10Y Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The overall market wealth management product break - even rate slightly decreased this week, with the break - even rate of all products at 2.0% [78]. 3.6 Treasury Futures Trend Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [83]. 3.7 Generalized Asset Management Landscape No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry, particularly focusing on AI applications [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI applications are entering a realization phase, with significant advancements in model performance and increasing enterprise adoption [2][12]. - The report highlights the emergence of multi-modal capabilities, cost-effective models, and enhanced reasoning abilities as key drivers for AI development [7][12]. - The report notes that the AI sector is witnessing a surge in demand, particularly in advertising, programming, search, big data, office applications, and education, indicating a robust growth trajectory [9][28][37]. Summary by Sections Model Performance Progress - Multi-modal capabilities are being enhanced, with major companies supporting text, image, audio, and video inputs, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for native multi-modal development [7][15]. - High-performance models like OpenAI's GPT-4.1 and Alibaba's Qwen3 have emerged, significantly reducing deployment costs while maintaining performance [7][15]. - New models are achieving breakthroughs in reasoning capabilities across mathematics, coding, and image tasks, meeting higher application demands [7][15]. AI Application Developments - Overseas AI applications are exceeding expectations, with major companies like Microsoft and Alibaba rapidly deploying AI agents to transform user interactions and enterprise workflows [8][28]. - The report identifies a trend where AI is creating new demand and significantly enhancing traditional business needs, particularly in advertising and programming sectors [9][28]. - Companies such as Applovin and Meta are experiencing substantial growth in advertising revenue, driven by improved ROI from AI technologies [9][42]. Agent Industry Progress - The report discusses the evolution of AI agents from tools to collaborative "AI colleagues," reshaping enterprise structures and workflows [11][35]. - Major firms are integrating AI agents into their operations, with Salesforce and ServiceNOW leading the way in enhancing business efficiency through automation [11][35]. - The report predicts that the AI agent market will transition to a multi-agent collaboration model, significantly impacting enterprise budgeting and valuation [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the accelerated development of AI, suggesting that companies strategically investing in AI are likely to see accelerated performance growth [12]. - It highlights the potential for market space to shift from IT budgets to human resource budgets, leading to a revaluation of AI application companies [12].

2025 年 05 月 26 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 新消费受关注，保健品、黄酒热度高 ——食品饮料行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 食品饮料 | -0.1% | 4.5% | -7.5% | | 沪深 300 | 1.9% | -2.5% | 7.2% | 相关报告 《食品饮料行业 2024 年报及 2025Q1 总结：白酒 降速纾压，休闲食品看点仍足（推荐）*食品饮料* 刘洁铭，秦一方》——2025-05-13 《食品饮料行业周报：关税变局下内需走强，板块 韧性凸 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks and highlighting the overall investment value of the North Exchange market in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of 3.68% as of May 23, 2025, closing at 1370.04 points, while the average market capitalization of the 266 A-share constituent stocks is 2.936 billion [8][19]. - The report identifies key sectors with significant performance, including Environmental Protection (up 8.16%), Beauty Care (up 2.62%), and Construction Materials (up 0.97%), while sectors like Transportation and Public Utilities faced declines of -20.33% and -11.41% respectively [19][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations, recommending stocks such as Tongli Co., Ltd. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment for their low valuations and potential benefits from infrastructure investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index showed a decline of 3.68%, while the average market capitalization of constituent stocks was 2.936 billion [8][19]. - The daily average trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 35.949 billion, reflecting a 3.65% increase from the previous week [22]. Stock Performance - In the week from May 19 to May 23, 2025, 41 stocks rose, while 225 fell, indicating a 15.41% increase in the number of rising stocks, a decrease of 51.88% week-on-week [13][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Recommended stocks include: - Tongli Co., Ltd. (stock code: 834599.BJ) with an EPS forecast of 1.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 10.66, rated as "Buy" [3]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (stock code: 835174.BJ) with an EPS forecast of 1.64 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 25.16, also rated as "Buy" [3]. - Other companies such as Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co., Ltd. are rated as "Hold" with potential for growth [3]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed this week, but Yuli Intelligent submitted for registration, with upcoming meetings for Shichang Co. and Zhigao Machinery [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][68]. Core Views - The report highlights the booming pet economy, with domestic brands rapidly rising. It emphasizes the continuous improvement in industry profitability and recommends several companies in the pet food and medical sectors [5][61]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - Swine prices are expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.51 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26 yuan/kg. The report recommends companies such as Wen's Food Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [15][16]. Poultry Industry - The report anticipates a price recovery for parent stock in Q2 2025, driven by a shortage of quality breeding stock due to overseas avian influenza impacts. It recommends companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Livestock, while suggesting attention to He Feng and Minhe shares [26][28]. Animal Health Industry - The animal health sector is experiencing cyclical weakening, but there are investment opportunities in innovative companies and the pet medical sector. The report highlights positive revenue growth for companies like Reap Bio and Kexin Bio in Q1 2025 [7][36]. Planting Industry - In April 2025, grain imports fell by 51.5% year-on-year, with significant declines in corn and wheat imports. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong transgenic seed research and development capabilities, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [45][49]. Feed Industry - Feed prices are on the rise, with a notable increase in the production of industrial feed. The report recommends Haida Group and suggests attention to He Feng shares as the industry concentration is expected to continue increasing [51][52]. Pet Industry - The pet economy is thriving, with the market size reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5%. The report recommends companies in the pet food sector like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong shares, as well as in the pet medical sector like Reap Bio [61][62].

2025 年 05 月 26 日 公司研究 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 S0350523120001 | | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 | | | | huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 零食量贩龙头，引领万亿元赛道效率变革 ——鸣鸣很忙（02143）招股说明书梳理 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 鸣鸣很忙：零食量贩行业领军者。2017 年晏周先生于湖南省长沙开 设首家"零食很忙"；2019 年赵定先生于江西省宜春开设首家"赵 一鸣零食"；2023 年 11 月，"零食很忙"完成对赵一鸣的收购事 项完成两大品牌融合。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，公司门店网络包 括 14,394 家门店，覆盖中国 28 个省份和所有线级城市，且其中约 58%的门店位于 ...