证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 布鲁可（00325.HK） 拼搭角色玩具龙头，用户象限拓展可期 ➢ 公司概况：拼搭角色玩具龙头，成长性充足。 公司成立于 2014 年，以拼搭角色类玩具为主，奥特曼为公司最为核心的 授权 IP，同时不断扩充 IP 产品矩阵，通过线下经销渠道覆盖国内市场， 低基数下海外增速更快。公司的股权架构稳定，创始人持股比例较高。股 权激励深度绑定公司核心高管，管理层团队稳定，经验丰富。公司营收高 速增长，盈利能力步入上升通道。 ➢ 行业：谷子经济乘风而起，成长空间广阔。 谷子经济，即二次元文化周边经济，指围绕动漫、游戏、漫画等 IP 衍生的 商品及其市场体系。在新消费蓬勃发展的产业趋势下，具备口红效应+社 交货币属性的谷子精准满足情绪消费需求，供给端优质 IP 增加+渠道扩张 助力谷子进入大众视野。 从细分市场来看，拼搭角色类玩具引领行业发展。在全球市场，2019 至 2023 年拼搭角色类玩具市场规模从 132 亿元增长至 278 亿元，年均复合 增长率为 20.5%。拼搭角色类玩具赛道行业集中度高，布鲁可国内排名第 一，全球排 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 海澜之家（600398.SH） 男装赛道佼佼者，业务突围打造零售平台 公司是大众服饰品牌龙头之一，男装主业规模稳健、优势突出，品牌零售管理新 业务（京东奥莱+FCC）未来增速较快、成长空间广阔。我们在本篇报告中梳理过 去公司基本面变化及核心竞争力，并对未来盈利表现及业务趋势做出判断： 男装主业稳扎稳打，产品积极求变，牢占龙头位置。1）主品牌：定位于大众男装， 产品兼具品质与性价比。过去几年内男装行业竞争格局有所优化，公司凭借类直 营的管理模式，在 2014~2019 年以较快的速度完成了品牌及渠道规模的扩张， 2024 年末主品牌线下门店已达近 6000 家，未来门店质量+电商利润率稳步提升 有望带动主品牌业绩稳健成长。我们综合估计 2025~2027 年 HLA 品牌收入分别 158.0/161.2/165.3 亿元，同比分别 +3%/+2%/+3% ，毛利率预 计分别为 47.5%/47.8%/48.1%。2）团购系列：公司合作优质大客户并积极主动获取订单， 我们估计 2025~2027 年团购定制系列收入分别为 24 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 增量信息有限——美联储 6 月议息会议点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 6 月议息会议决议。 核心结论：美联储如期维持利率不变，下调经济预测、上调通胀预测，点 阵图显示年内降息次数维持 2 次不变，明年降息从 2 次减少至 1 次。会议 过后，市场降息预期变化不大，仍维持全年降 2 次、首次在 9 月。继续提 示：未来两个月将是重要的窗口期，关注贸易谈判结果、特朗普财政法案 落地情况、伊朗-以色列局势演化。美联储下次会议是 7/31，届时这些事 件均有望尘埃落定，因此下次会议可能释放更多政策信号。 1、美联储如期按兵不动，下调经济预测，点阵图显示降息空间减少。 >会议决议：美联储维持联邦基金利率 4.25-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。 会议声明有两处明显变化：（1）对经济前景不确定性的表述从"进一步加 剧"改为"有所下降，但依然很高"；（2）删掉了"委员会判断失业率和通 胀上升的风险已经增加"。 >点阵图：本次更新的利率点阵图与 3 月相比，美联储官员对年内降息的 预期维持 2 次不 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 5 月社零略超预期 | 分析师 | 张一鸣 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522070009 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangyiming@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 7.4% | -3.7% | 24.8% | | 传媒 | 6.0% | -3.1% | 34.3% | | 有色金属 | 5.6% | -0.6% | 13.6% | | 银行 | 5.1% | 9.8% | 31.7% | | 石油石化 | 4.4% | 2.9% | -1.9% | | 行业表现后五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 食品饮料 | -6.9% | -9.7% | -4.2% | | 美容护理 | -6.1% | 0.2% | 7.0% | | 家用电器 | -4.9% | -7.3% | 7.5% | | 建筑材料 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [4][6]. Core Views - The company is actively investing to strengthen its ecosystem and is optimistic about its long-term competitive advantages [1]. - The core local business has shown healthy growth with a significant investment of 100 billion RMB to support merchants, leading to a 17.8% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [2]. - New business segments are improving losses and expanding overseas, with a 19.2% increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.92%, and a net profit of 100.57 billion RMB, up 87.33% year-on-year [1]. - The core local business generated revenue of 643 billion RMB, with an operating profit of 135 billion RMB, reflecting a 39.1% increase year-on-year [2]. - The new business segment reported revenue of 222 billion RMB, with operating losses narrowing to 23 billion RMB, a 17.5% year-on-year improvement [3]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is experiencing healthy growth through refined operations, with a focus on high-quality products and services [2]. - The flash purchase segment continues to grow strongly, with an increase in the number of flash warehouses and order proportions [2]. - The company launched a "Meituan Membership" program to enhance cross-selling and transaction frequency in lower-tier markets [2]. Financial Metrics and Projections - The report projects net profits of 418.3 billion RMB, 534.6 billion RMB, and 638.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 499.8 billion RMB, 616.1 billion RMB, and 720.1 billion RMB for the same years, with corresponding valuations of 15.9, 12.9, and 11.0 times [4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.45% in Q1 2025, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The acquisition of a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics is expected to enhance BOE's display business by improving product technology, increasing scale in large-size panels, and expanding market share [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the panel industry is anticipated to rebalance, with top manufacturers gaining more market power, potentially increasing their market share to over 70% [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - BOE plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for a base price of 4.849 billion yuan, which will reduce Rainbow's stake to 69.79% while still maintaining control [1] Company Operations - Rainbow Optoelectronics operates a G8.6 LCD panel production line with a monthly capacity of 120K glass substrates, focusing on high-resolution and large-size panels [2] - The company is set to enhance its production capacity for large-size panels from 30K/month to 60K/month by March 2025, aiming for full production by 2026 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The acquisition is expected to strengthen BOE's VA technology capabilities and enhance its competitive position in the 50-inch and larger panel segments [3] - The market share of BOE is projected to exceed 30%, solidifying its leadership in the 32-inch to 50-inch and large-size panel markets [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 215.996 billion yuan, 239.566 billion yuan, and 264.058 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.415 billion yuan, 13.410 billion yuan, and 15.513 billion yuan [4][5] - The company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated to be around 1.0 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 18 年 月 日 商贸零售 5 月社零同比增长 6.4%，略超预期 5 月社零同比增长 6.4%，略超预期。据国家统计局及 Wind 数据，2025 年 5 月份社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元/同比+6.4%，增速环比为 +1.3pct；其中除汽车以外的消费品零售额 37316 亿元/同比+7.0%，排除 石油及汽车因素以外的消费品零售额 35421 亿元/同比+6.3%。价上来看， 5 月 CPI 为同比-0.1%，与前值持平。整体而言，2025 年 1-5 月社会消费 品零售总额 203171 亿元/同比+5.0%，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 184324 亿元/同比+5.6%，略超预期。 分品类看，必选品类同比均增长，国补下家电/通讯器材环比增长加速。 其中：1)必选品类：同比均保持正增。2025 年 5 月粮油食品/饮料/烟酒/ 日用品同比+14.6%/+0.1%/+11.2%/+8.0%，环比分别为+0.6pct/- 2.8pct/+7.2pct/+0.4pct；2)可选：仅石油制品同比下滑，国补下家电/通 讯器材环比增长加 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Portfolio Optimization with 10-Year Treasury Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: Incorporating 10-year Treasury bonds into a portfolio to optimize the risk-return profile by leveraging their low correlation with other asset classes and high Sharpe ratio[10][13][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the correlation matrix between 10-year Treasury bonds and other asset classes such as A-shares, U.S. equities, and gold[13] 2. Evaluate historical performance metrics, including annualized return, volatility, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio for each asset[14] 3. Add 10-year Treasury bonds to a portfolio consisting of equities and short-term bonds (e.g., CSI 300, ChiNext, 1-3 year Treasury bonds) 4. Optimize the portfolio's efficient frontier by maximizing the Sharpe ratio[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The inclusion of 10-year Treasury bonds significantly improves the portfolio's efficient frontier, enhancing the risk-return tradeoff[10][15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Macro Cycle-Based Bond Performance Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assessing the performance of 10-year Treasury bonds under different macroeconomic cycles to identify favorable investment periods[16][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide the macroeconomic environment into six stages based on monetary, credit, and growth factors[16] 2. Calculate the annualized return of 10-year Treasury bonds in each macroeconomic stage[18] 3. Use a macroeconomic scoring card to evaluate the bond's performance probability in the current stage[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor indicates that 10-year Treasury bonds perform best during the late stages of economic downturns, with a recent macroeconomic probability score of 40%[16][18] --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Portfolio Optimization with 10-Year Treasury Bonds - **Annualized Return**: 4.51%[14] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.31%[14] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 6.86%[14] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.95[14] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.66[14] 2. Macro Cycle-Based Bond Performance Factor - **Recent Macro Probability Score**: 40%[18]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 18 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 百年复盘，寻找当下黄金的历史坐标 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【金融工程】高胜率低波动，资产定价之锚——国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF 基金投资价值分析——20250617 【金融工程】转债市场当前仍在合理区间内运行——六月可转债量化月 报——20250617 【机械设备】国内外大周期均向上，利润弹性大——20250617 【有色金属】百年复盘，寻找当下黄金的历史坐标——20250617 ◼ 研究视点 【钢铁】5 月数据跟踪：粗钢产量收缩需要进一步观察——20250617 【煤炭】进口继续下滑，火电由降转增，旺季反弹可期——20250617 作者 | 分析师 马婷婷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680519040001 | | | | | 邮箱：matingting@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 传媒 | 6.9% | -2.5% | 36.0% | | 有色金 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 17 年 月 日 量化点评报告 转债市场当前仍在合理区间内运行——六月可转债量化月报 转债市场在三月中的高点快速回调后，在四月份估值调整至合理区间，随 后便走出了稳定上涨的行情，那么现在转债市场估值与配置价值处于怎样 的水平？ 转债市场当前仍在合理区间内运行。截止至 2025 年 6 月 13 号，定价偏 离度指标为0.35%，分别占2018年以来与2021年以来的62.1%与53.9% 分位数水平，可见当前转债估值仍在合理区间。同时我们统计了在不同的 定价偏离度下，未来 N 日的中证转债平均收益率与胜率。当前转债市场处 于[-0.5%,0.5%)的估值区间中，统计可得历史上位于该区间时未来半年中 证转债收益率均值为 1.5%，胜率为 72%，配置价值适中。 相关研究 1、《量化点评报告：领先者基金名单：哪些基金产品的 持股行为具备前瞻性？》 2025-03-19 2、《量化分析报告：布局新质生产万亿空间大赛道—— 永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF 投资价值分析》 2025-03-17 3、《量化周报：本轮日线级别上涨开始进入后半程》 20 ...