Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry [4]. Core Insights - The mobile interaction paradigm is transitioning from GUI to Agentic interaction, allowing users to express their intentions in natural language, which the mobile agent then executes [1][12]. - Two main technical routes for mobile agents are identified: API paradigm and GUI paradigm, each with distinct advantages and challenges [1][2][24]. - The rise of mobile agents signifies a reshuffling of mobile internet traffic among mobile manufacturers, large model manufacturers, and application developers, leading to complex interactions among these parties [3][26]. Summary by Sections Mobile Agent and Interaction Paradigm - The shift from GUI to Agentic interaction is driven by the increasing complexity of applications and the need for more efficient user interactions [1][12]. - Users can now communicate their needs through natural language, with mobile agents handling the execution of tasks across different applications [1][12]. API Paradigm Analysis - The API paradigm involves creating standardized semantic interfaces that require app developers to adapt and expose functionalities for agent use [16][18]. - Apple's App Intents framework exemplifies this approach, emphasizing privacy and structured integration [16][17]. GUI Paradigm Analysis - The GUI paradigm operates without developer cooperation, using visual models to simulate user actions on the screen [2][19]. - Recent advancements in multi-modal models, such as Google's Gemini 3 Pro, have significantly improved the ability to understand and interact with UI elements [19][21]. Comparison of API and GUI Agents - GUI agents offer higher generality, allowing them to operate across various applications without developer adaptation, while API agents excel in reliability, performance, and privacy [2][24]. - API agents can complete complex tasks in a single call, whereas GUI agents may require multiple steps, leading to higher computational costs and potential delays [24]. Evolution of Business Models - The emergence of mobile agents is reshaping the competitive landscape, with mobile manufacturers seeking to leverage traffic entry points and large model manufacturers aiming to create comprehensive applications [3][27][28]. - Application developers face a dual challenge of collaborating with mobile and model manufacturers while protecting their own interests [31]. Recommendations for Attention - Key players in the GUI agent space include ByteDance, Google, Alibaba, and ZTE, while Tencent, Alibaba, and Google are notable in the API agent domain [7][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia plans to impose a coal export tax starting in 2026 to increase national revenue, which has faced strong opposition from the coal mining association [2][8] - The report recommends companies with strong earnings elasticity such as Yancoal Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and focuses on Keda Automation in the smart mining sector [2] - Key companies to watch include major state-owned enterprises like China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as turnaround candidates like China Qinfa [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global energy prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil futures at $63.75 per barrel (+0.87%) and WTI at $60.08 per barrel (+2.61%) as of December 5, 2025 [1] - Coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal at $109.5 per ton (-1.44%) and South African Richards Bay coal at $90.8 per ton (+5.13%) [1][36] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Coal Energy: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.46, 1.21, 1.29, and 1.39 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - China Shenhua: Buy with EPS estimates of 2.95, 2.56, 2.71, and 2.86 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - Jinkong Coal Industry: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.68, 1.23, 1.47, and 1.62 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - Yancoal Energy: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.44, 0.99, 1.18, and 1.37 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - China Qinfa: Buy with EPS estimates of 0.20, 0.06, 0.27, and 0.47 for 2024A to 2027E [7] Market Trends - The coal industry is facing challenges due to the proposed export tax, which may impact its competitiveness in the global market [2][8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring coal demand and pricing trends as the industry navigates these changes [2][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in performance compared to non-ferrous metals, with non-ferrous metals benefiting more from manufacturing sectors like electrical machinery and telecommunications, while steel is more reliant on real estate and automotive industries [2]. - The average daily pig iron production has decreased, with a notable drop in steel output, particularly in rebar production [12][18]. - Total steel inventory has seen a significant reduction, with a week-on-week decline of 2.5% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened, with rebar demand declining more than hot-rolled coil demand [40]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by supply adjustments and market dynamics [50]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has decreased by 23,000 tons to 2.323 million tons, with a significant drop in steel output [12][18]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is at 87.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [18]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 2.5% week-on-week, with social inventory down 2.9% and steel mill inventory down 1.6% [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products is 8.642 million tons, down 2.7% week-on-week [51]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel is 99,000 tons, reflecting a 5.3% decrease [41]. Raw Materials - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $107.1 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [61]. - Australian iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, while Brazilian shipments have increased [61]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight improvement in the industry's profitability [75]. - The current cost of long-process rebar is 3,533 RMB per ton, with a loss of 233 RMB per ton [75][81].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, particularly focusing on the isolation component in optical modules [4][10]. Core Insights - The global optical module industry is rapidly upgrading to 800G/1.6T due to AI computing demand, with optical isolators becoming a critical bottleneck due to a global shortage of Faraday rotators [1][19]. - The production of Faraday rotators is highly concentrated and faces significant technical barriers, leading to supply constraints that impact the expansion of optical module capacity [21][24]. - The demand for optical isolators is expected to surge as the usage of optical modules increases, particularly in high-speed applications, which will drive both the quantity and value of isolators [6][22]. Summary by Sections Section: Optical Isolators as Key Components - Optical isolators function as essential passive components in optical communication systems, allowing light to transmit in one direction while blocking reverse reflections, thus protecting laser sources and enhancing system reliability [2][20]. - The core technology of optical isolators relies on the Faraday effect, with the Faraday rotator being a critical component that is currently in short supply globally [21][23]. Section: Supply Chain Challenges - The production of Faraday rotators is dominated by a few companies in the US and Japan, creating a monopolistic supply chain that poses risks for the optical isolator market [23][24]. - Domestic companies are striving to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of Faraday rotators, but the overall localization rate remains low, indicating a significant opportunity for growth in this area [23][24]. Section: Market Demand and Growth Potential - The transition of optical modules to higher capacities (800G/1.6T) is expected to increase the demand for optical isolators significantly, with each module requiring multiple isolators depending on the number of channels [6][22]. - The report highlights that the mismatch between the rapid increase in demand for isolators and the slow expansion of production capacity will lead to price increases and heightened value for isolators in the market [6][22]. Section: Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the optical communication sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for optical isolators [7][8][24].

电力设备 多晶硅市场维持稳定，大金重工欧洲拓展加速 光伏：多晶硅市场整体维持稳定，电池酝酿挺价。据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅 n 型复投料成 交价格区间为 4.9-5.5 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.32 万元/吨，环比持平。n 型颗粒硅成交价格 区间为 5.0-5.1 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.05 万元/吨，环比持平。从成交情况看，主流签单企 业数量维持在 5 家，头部棒状硅企业和颗粒硅企业签单量和成交价格与前期基本持平。据 Infolink Consulting，本周 N 型电池片价格：183N、210RN 与 210N 价格持平，均价仍分别 为每瓦 0.285、0.275 与 0.285 元人民币，价格区间分别为每瓦 0.28-0.29、0.27-0.275 与 0.28-0.285 元人民币。由头部厂家带领，本月电池片环节进行大规模减产，其中 210RN 排 产占比显著下滑，本周部分电池片厂家正酝酿坚挺该尺寸价格，并给出每瓦 0.285 元人民币 的报价。组件价格方面，TOPCon 国内集中式项目交付范围落在每瓦 0.64-0.70 元人民币左 右；分布式项目落在每瓦 0.66-0.70 元人民币不等。近 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant decline in ultra - long bonds is not expected to lead to a significant and continuous increase in the ultra - long bond spread in the long - term. However, short - term risks need further observation. As year - end bank indicator pressures ease, fund and brokerage positions decrease, and insurance allocation demand recovers, the ultra - long bond spread is expected to repair. But short - term risks, especially potential market shocks from concentrated selling by trading institutions, are hard to judge [5][21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Situation of Ultra - long Bonds - Recently, while other bonds remained stable, ultra - long bonds declined significantly. Since last Friday, medium - and short - term bonds were stable, with 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields fluctuating less than 1bp, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rising slightly by 1.1bp. In contrast, the 30 - year Treasury yield rose by 5.0bp, and the 50 - year Treasury yield rose by 5.9bp. This widened the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year bonds to 38.3bps, approaching the highs in late September and early October [1][8]. Reasons for the Weakening of Ultra - long Bonds - Banks' ability to hold long - term bonds is restricted by indicators such as △EVE and the Tier 1 capital ratio close to the 15% regulatory red line, which may lead to selling of long - term bonds to meet requirements or realize floating profits [2][10]. - The public fund fee reform may increase redemption pressure, and year - end net value drawdowns may exacerbate passive redemptions, causing trading institutions like funds and brokerages to reduce long - bond holdings [2][10]. - Insurance institutions' liability growth has slowed in the past two months, with a shift in allocation towards stocks. Insurance premium income growth was negative in September and October, and the proportion of bonds in asset allocation decreased slightly while the stock proportion increased [2][10]. Attractiveness of Ultra - long Bonds - From the perspective of the overall asset portfolio, the increase in ultra - long bond spreads enhances the cost - effectiveness of the barbell portfolio. With the same duration, the barbell portfolio's return is higher than that of the bullet portfolio, increasing the demand for ultra - long bonds and promoting a shift towards a barbell - shaped portfolio [3][12]. - In terms of absolute return, the increase in ultra - long bond yields makes them more attractive compared to other assets. The spread between the 30 - year Treasury and personal mortgage rates is at its lowest since Q3 2017, and considering tax, bad debts, and capital occupation, bonds are more cost - effective than loans. Ultra - long bond yields can cover the liability costs of insurance and banks, and with the slowdown in real - estate sales, future inflows of household deposits and insurance premiums are expected to increase, so the liability side is not a constraint for institutional allocation [4][14]. - Based on previous pricing of the 30 - 10 - year spread using factors like funding prices, net ultra - long bond financing, stock market performance, and ultra - long bond turnover, the current 30 - 10 - year spread is close to the upper limit of one standard deviation, indicating that ultra - long bonds are still within a reasonable range [4][17].

Group 1 - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 40.94 based on a P/E of 24x for 2026 [3][5] - The company is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, focusing on baby diapers, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes, with a well-established brand portfolio [1][14] - The company has a market share of 20.3% in the African baby diaper market and 15.6% in the sanitary napkin market, ranking first in both categories [2][14] Group 2 - The African hygiene products market is projected to reach USD 3.8 billion by 2024, with significant growth potential due to low penetration rates [2][39] - The market for baby diapers, sanitary napkins, and baby pull-ups in Africa is expected to grow at CAGRs of 7.0%, 10.7%, and 7.6% from 2025 to 2029, respectively [2] - The company has established a localized supply chain, a diverse product brand matrix, and a wide sales network, enhancing its competitive edge [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the optical and optoelectronic industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The panel industry is showing signs of price stabilization, with expectations for a rebound in prices as the peak stocking season approaches, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year [1] - The upcoming "tax refund wave" in the U.S. and the 2026 World Cup in North America are anticipated to stimulate demand for large-sized panels, especially those 50 inches and above, as consumers upgrade their televisions for viewing sports events [2] - Supply-side improvements are expected due to seasonal maintenance by domestic panel manufacturers and the exit of South Korean manufacturers from certain production lines, which may lead to a price recovery in the panel industry [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the panel industry is on the verge of a turnaround, with price stabilization expected in December 2025 for various sizes of television panels, while a slight decrease in price for 65-inch panels is projected [1] - The report cites data from Omdia, predicting that prices for 32/43/50/55-inch television panels will stop declining by December 2025, with a potential increase of $1-2 for non-strategic customers for 55/65/75-inch products [1] Demand Drivers - The anticipated tax refunds in the U.S. are expected to increase disposable income for consumers, which could drive demand for large-sized panels [2] - The World Cup is projected to create a significant demand spike for large television panels, with procurement peaks occurring 6-9 months prior to the event [2] Supply Dynamics - Seasonal maintenance activities by domestic manufacturers typically lead to a decrease in production rates around the Chinese New Year, which may further tighten supply [3] - The exit of LG Display from certain production lines is expected to contribute to a more favorable supply environment for the panel industry [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic panel industry players, specifically mentioning companies such as BOE Technology Group, TCL Technology, and Rainbow Technology as potential investment targets [3]

证券研究报告|行业深度 2025 12 03 年 月 日 算力之争，电力为王： 聚焦美国 A I能源革命核心赛道 分析师 张卓然 分析师 鲁昊 执业证书编号：S0680525080005 执业证书编号：S0680525080006 邮箱：zhangzhuoran@gszq.com 邮箱：luhao@gszq.com 分析师 张津铭 分析师 高紫明 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 邮箱：liuliyu@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 汇报框架 目录 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 解决AI电力供需的有效途径 2 投资策略与相关标的 3 风险提示 4 2 1 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 3 • 美国电力供需现状 • 美国数据中心用电增长测算 • 供需错配与电网容量难以支撑用电高增 美国电力供需现状 01 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 图表2：美国各部门用电占比 资料来源： Wind，国盛证券研究所 资 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The upcoming ByteDance Force Conference on December 18 is expected to showcase advancements in cloud infrastructure, large models, and application deployment, potentially leading a new wave of AI enthusiasm [1] - The Doubao large model has seen significant growth, with daily token usage exceeding 30 trillion by September, indicating rapid AI deployment [2] - The Doubao mobile assistant, set to launch on December 1, will enhance user efficiency by automating complex tasks on mobile devices [3] - The Huoshan Cloud business is projected to generate 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and over 20 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 100% [4] - The industry is witnessing rapid advancements in AI models and cost reductions in computing power, which will facilitate broader application deployment and create a commercial AI ecosystem [5] Summary by Sections Doubao Large Model - The Doubao model's daily token usage has increased by over 137 times since its last update, showcasing its growing adoption [2] - The upcoming conference is expected to introduce various innovations in the model's capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [2] Doubao Mobile Assistant - The mobile assistant will have system-level access and the ability to perform tasks like ordering food through automation, significantly improving daily efficiency [3] - The assistant is priced at 3,499 yuan and is currently available in collaboration with ZTE [3] Huoshan Cloud Business - Huoshan Engine aims for substantial revenue growth, targeting 100 billion yuan in 2024 and over 200 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 1 trillion yuan [4] - Computing power is identified as a core resource for supporting model training and application execution [4] Agent Tools and Industry Solutions - The conference will also focus on upgrading agent development tools and enhancing AI deployment capabilities across various industries [4] - The industry is expected to see stronger solution implementation across sectors such as finance, education, and gaming [4] Related Companies - Key companies in the cloud segment include Cambrian, Digital China, and Dongyangguang, while in the edge segment, ZTE and others are highlighted [6]