证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 17 年 月 日 量化点评报告 转债市场当前仍在合理区间内运行——六月可转债量化月报 转债市场在三月中的高点快速回调后，在四月份估值调整至合理区间，随 后便走出了稳定上涨的行情，那么现在转债市场估值与配置价值处于怎样 的水平？ 转债市场当前仍在合理区间内运行。截止至 2025 年 6 月 13 号，定价偏 离度指标为0.35%，分别占2018年以来与2021年以来的62.1%与53.9% 分位数水平，可见当前转债估值仍在合理区间。同时我们统计了在不同的 定价偏离度下，未来 N 日的中证转债平均收益率与胜率。当前转债市场处 于[-0.5%,0.5%)的估值区间中，统计可得历史上位于该区间时未来半年中 证转债收益率均值为 1.5%，胜率为 72%，配置价值适中。 相关研究 1、《量化点评报告：领先者基金名单：哪些基金产品的 持股行为具备前瞻性？》 2025-03-19 2、《量化分析报告：布局新质生产万亿空间大赛道—— 永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF 投资价值分析》 2025-03-17 3、《量化周报：本轮日线级别上涨开始进入后半程》 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a contraction in crude steel production, with May's output down 6.9% year-on-year, indicating a need for further observation regarding production adjustments [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased, impacting production and demand dynamics, although domestic economic conditions remain relatively stable [2][3] - Steel exports have shown significant growth, with net exports for January to May reaching 45.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [3] - The report suggests that the recovery of steel profitability is closely tied to supply-side adjustments and the overall economic recovery driven by fiscal policies [4] Summary by Sections Production Data - In May, crude steel production was 86.55 million tons, down 6.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 2.79 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% [8] - Pig iron production in May was 74.11 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year [8] - Steel production in May was 127.43 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year [8] Export and Import Data - In May, steel exports were 10.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [8] - Steel imports in May were 480,000 tons, down 24.5% year-on-year [8] - Iron ore imports in May were 98.13 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (600782.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Baosteel (600019.SH) with a "Buy" rating - New Steel (600019.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (603995.SH) with a "Buy" rating - New Casting (000778.SZ) with an "Accumulate" rating [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the gold sector, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Zijin Mining Group Co., and Shandong Gold International Mining Co. [7] Core Insights - The macro narrative surrounding gold is currently reminiscent of the 1970s and early 20th century, with increasing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and high deficits [1][18] - Gold's valuation is considered reasonable relative to global M2, with potential for significant price increases, suggesting target prices of $3,435 and $6,088 per ounce based on different M2 comparisons [1][19] - Central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves, particularly in emerging markets, as gold regains its status as a hard currency [2][22] - Tariff policies are expected to elevate U.S. inflation expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates and maintain fiscal deficits [3][40] - Geopolitical uncertainties and rising populism globally are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][52] Summary by Sections Historical Context of Gold - Gold has shifted from a financial asset to a monetary asset, with its primary attributes ranked as monetary, financial, safe-haven, and commodity [11][12] - The historical valuation of gold indicates that it has significant upside potential based on current economic conditions and monetary policies [18] Current Market Dynamics - Central banks' gold purchases have been robust, with a notable increase in demand from emerging markets, which currently hold only 8.2% of their reserves in gold compared to 33.2% in developed countries [2][22] - The implementation of Basel III regulations in 2025 will further enhance the demand for physical gold among banks [23] Economic Implications - The U.S. is facing a high deficit environment, with projections indicating an average deficit rate of 5.8% over the next decade, significantly higher than historical averages [3][40] - Tariff impacts on consumer confidence and economic growth could lead to stagflation, further complicating the economic landscape [3][46] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the rise of populism are increasing global uncertainties, which may bolster gold's safe-haven status [4][52]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal production remains stable, with May's output at 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [12][17] - Coal imports continue to decline, with May imports at 36.04 million tons, down 17.7% year-on-year [17][12] - Thermal power generation has turned from decline to increase, with a 1.2% year-on-year growth in May [19][20] - The report anticipates a slight increase in coal production in 2025, with a net increase of 55-60 million tons, representing a growth of approximately 1.2-1.3% [12][17] Summary by Sections Production - In May, the industrial raw coal output was 400 million tons, with a daily average of 13.01 million tons [12][15] - The total output from January to May was 1.99 billion tons, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year increase [12] Imports - Coal imports in May were 36.04 million tons, a decrease of 17.7% compared to the same month last year [17][12] - From January to May, total coal imports reached 188.67 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [17] Demand - The total industrial power generation in May was 737.8 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [19][20] - Thermal power generation increased by 1.2% in May, reversing the previous month's decline [19][20] - Hydropower generation saw a significant decline of 14.3% year-on-year [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and China Qinfa for investment [36][37] - It highlights the performance of new energy companies and those with potential for growth, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [36]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The report indicates that May's economic data shows a mixed performance, with consumption rising unexpectedly while other sectors face challenges due to tariff impacts and declining external demand [3][4]. - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is projected to remain around 5%, but economic pressures may increase in the latter half of the year [4]. - The consumption sector's rebound is primarily supported by the "old-for-new" policy, while investment in real estate is declining, and industrial production continues to show signs of weakness [4]. Group 2: Company Insights - Asia Xiang Integrated (603929.SH) is highlighted as a leading semiconductor cleanroom company with a robust order backlog of approximately 3 billion yuan, including a recent 3.2 billion yuan project win [7]. - Yirui Technology (688301.SH) is recognized as a domestic leader in X-ray detectors, with a projected revenue growth from 2.196 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.168 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% [10][11]. - Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) is set to acquire 100% of Sors Technology for up to 5.935 billion yuan, aiming to enhance its position in the optical communication market and expand its AI capabilities [13].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 16 年 月 日 投资策略 地缘冲突爆发如何影响 A 股？ 一、策略专题：地缘冲突爆发如何影响 A 股？ 近年来海外地缘冲突频率较高，近有印巴冲突、伊以冲突，前有俄乌冲突、 巴以冲突，且往往对 A 股市场造成一定扰动，我们对过往地缘冲突时点 A 股市场与行业表现进行复盘，以探索如何应对类似事件冲击。 从 A 股市场整体表现看，地缘冲突爆发一般造成单日扰动。对比历次地缘 冲突，2022 年俄乌冲突扰动幅度最大，本次伊以冲突次之，而巴以冲突、 印巴冲突扰动幅度相对较小。拉长时间看，指数通常在 3 个交易日内出现 修复，随后的市场整体表现则受地缘冲突的影响较小，因此可以视之为短 期的"脉冲"。 行业层面看，油气、军工短期表现较强，银行、电力、黄金等避险方向具 备韧性，新能源或受催化。一级行业看，国防军工、石油石化在地缘冲突 爆发首日领涨概率较高，但随后二者表现有所分化，石油石化持续性较弱， 第二日就可能出现兑现情形，国防军工持续性略强，其涨幅可能在前五日 持续扩大，随后才进入调整阶段。二级行业看，仅国防军工细分行业在俄 乌、巴以、印巴三次冲突后均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expanding its business into the optical communication sector through the acquisition of Solstice Photonics for a total investment of up to RMB 5.935 billion, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [1][14]. - The optical communication market is experiencing sustained growth due to the rapid development of 5G communications and data centers, providing new business growth opportunities for the company [2][15]. - The company is leveraging its existing customer resources and manufacturing experience in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles to create synergies with Solstice Photonics [2][15]. - The precision manufacturing business is rapidly growing, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which is expected to benefit from increasing sales and market penetration [3][28]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of RMB 436 billion, RMB 588 billion, and RMB 676 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 38 billion, RMB 53 billion, and RMB 64 billion [4][5]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of Solstice Photonics - The company has agreed to acquire 100% of Solstice Photonics, which specializes in optical communication modules and components, enhancing its market position [1][14]. - Solstice Photonics has a strong customer base, including major internet data center operators and telecom equipment manufacturers, and is expected to generate a profit of approximately RMB 400 million in 2024 [1][14]. Consumer Electronics - The flexible printed circuit (FPC) market is expected to grow due to increasing demand for lightweight and compact electronic components, driven by innovations in smartphones and AI applications [2][18]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the FPC market, ranking second globally, and is expected to benefit from the rising demand for high-density circuit boards [24][25]. New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle market is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 18.24 million units globally in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.5% [28]. - The company is expanding its precision manufacturing capabilities to meet the increasing demand for components in the new energy vehicle sector [3][28]. AI Servers - The AI server market is anticipated to grow substantially, with an expected market value of nearly USD 298 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in AI technology and cloud computing [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from June 9th to June 13th, 2025, covering various aspects such as overall, production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing, and analyzes their trends and changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Index: Stable Fundamental High - Frequency Index - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.1 points (previous value: 126.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.4%) [9][11]. 3.2 Production: Decline in Electric Furnace and Polyester Operating Rates - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.6 (previous value: 125.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8% (previous value: 64.7%); the polyester operating rate is 88.6% (previous value: 88.9%) [9][11][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Turn Positive Year - on - Year - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 44.5 (previous value: 44.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters (previous value: 213,000 square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.0% (previous value: 3.6%) [9][11][21]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Recovery of Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 118.4 (previous value: 118.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 1.9 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 31.5% (previous value: 31.3%) [9][11][33]. 3.5 Exports: Continuous Recovery of Export Container Freight Rate Index - The export high - frequency index is 144.3 (previous value: 144.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1243 points (previous value: 1155 points); the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 106 points (previous value: 104 points); the RJ/CRB index is 303.3 points (previous value: 297.6 points) [9][11][37]. 3.6 Consumption: Decline in Passenger Car Retail and Wholesale - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 1.5 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The retail volume of passenger car manufacturers is 42,835 units (previous value: 95,364 units); the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers is 38,836 units (previous value: 156,618 units); the average daily box office is 39.01 million yuan (previous value: 82.57 million yuan) [9][11][50]. 3.7 CPI: Continued Decline in Pork Prices - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The latest average wholesale price of pork is 20.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.6 yuan/kg) [10][11][55]. 3.8 PPI: Recovery of Crude Oil Futures Prices - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: - 0.1%). The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 609 yuan/ton (previous value: 609 yuan/ton); the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures is 69 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 65 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][61]. 3.9 Transportation: Decline in Passenger Transport and Flights - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.0 (previous value: 127.8), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.2 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 36.98 million person - times (previous value: 37.17 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,420 flights (previous value: 12,451 flights) [10][11][73]. 3.10 Inventory: Continuous Recovery of Aluminum Ingot Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.3 (previous value: 160.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory is 179,000 tons (previous value: 165,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1.682 million tons (previous value: 1.627 million tons) [10][11][79]. 3.11 Financing: Decline in Net Financing of Local Government Bonds and Credit Bonds - The financing high - frequency index is 229.1 (previous value: 228.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.3 points, and the year - on - year increase has expanded. The net financing of local government bonds is - 4.3 billion yuan (previous value: 5.05 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 9.96 billion yuan (previous value: 12.37 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 1.05% (previous value: 1.08%) [10][11][89].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 16 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 5 月社融有喜有忧，怎么看、怎么办？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】高频半月观—地产、价格等内需指标进一步走弱——20250615 【宏观】5 月社融有喜有忧，怎么看、怎么办？——20250613 【金融工程】中证 500、中证 1000 确认日线级别上涨——20250615 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：信用方向转为上行趋势——20250614 【固定收益】新的做多力量会来自何方？——20250615 【固定收益】资金宽松，曲线下移——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250614 【固定收益】融资弱资金宽，债市继续走强——20250614 【家用电器】从绿联科技、安克创新看"浅海品类"明星公司的成长之路 ——20250615 【银行】本周聚焦—5 月社融数据：政府债支撑社融，新发放贷款利率保 持不变——20250615 【电子】胜宏科技（300476.SZ）-全球 AI PCB 龙头，深度受益 GPU+ASIC 需求提升——20250615 ◼ 研究视点 【能源】跨省跨区电力应急调度新规出台，"疆电入渝"首批电源 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and others, with specific PE ratios projected for 2025 [11][39][41]. Core Insights - The apparel manufacturing sector has shown short-term revenue fluctuations, with companies like Feng Tai and Yu Yuan experiencing declines in May 2025, while Ru Hong reported a slight increase [1][15]. - Vietnam's apparel exports have accelerated since Q2 2025, primarily due to changes in U.S. tariff policies, with significant growth in textile and footwear exports [2][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [3][38]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - In May 2025, Feng Tai's revenue decreased by 23.4%, Yu Yuan's increased by 0.5%, and Ru Hong's decreased by 8.6% year-on-year. Cumulatively from January to May 2025, Feng Tai's revenue fell by 4.3%, while Yu Yuan and Ru Hong saw increases of 5.6% and 14.3%, respectively [1][15]. Industry Level - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports saw year-on-year increases of 20% and 27% in April 2025, with further growth in May. In contrast, China's apparel exports grew by 2.5% in May 2025 [2][24]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests prioritizing brands with solid fundamentals, expecting a performance recovery in 2025. Key companies in the sports sector are projected to outperform the broader apparel market [3][38]. Apparel Manufacturing - The easing of tariff policies is expected to positively impact company valuations in the apparel manufacturing sector. Companies with integrated and international supply chains are likely to gain market share [4][39]. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shenzhou International (2025 PE of 11), Huayi Group (2025 PE of 15), and Weixing Co. (2025 PE of 17), among others, indicating a focus on firms with strong growth potential and competitive advantages [39][41].