2025 年 08 月 03 日 止跌的三个观察视角 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：止跌的三个观察视角 上期我们认为短期或有颠簸，但是整体趋势状态或仍然向上。事后来 看，市场确实在 3600 附近出现了自 6 月底以来相对较大的震荡调整。 从走势对称的角度以及从重要关口阻力位的角度看，市场对当前位置 震荡调整的关注度比较高，一类是担心本轮上涨是不是已经结束了， 一类是关心本轮调整何时将再次迎来机会。 除非是出现特别疯狂的走势或基本面（含基本面预期）出现确定性变 化，否则一波趋势的结束往往是需要反复验证的。在当前状态下，我 们新研发的择时系统的中期趋势指标仍然维持在偏强状态，这往往表 明需要反复测试 3670-3674 这一区域才有足够的证据来讨论趋势是 否结束的问题，因此本期我们主要讨论这波调整的技术面止跌信号。 从缠论视角看，一个有效的顶分型放量跌破 5 日或 10 日均线之后， 往往很可能会出现一波明显的调整，也就是至少会形成日线级别的向 下一笔。 从量能角度看，牛市中的下跌缩量到一定程度之后往往是企稳的重要 标志，快速上涨的牛市中一波像样的调整往往要求至少缩量到 55%之 下，而慢牛中的缩量 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market pullback is primarily due to profit-taking after significant domestic and international events, yet the technology growth sector continues to show strong profitability [2][10] - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the market, suggesting that the index will perform better than expected due to ongoing inflows of medium to long-term capital and a rebalancing of stock and bond asset allocations [2][10] - The report highlights that the current environment of liquidity is conducive to a bull market, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right investment direction, particularly focusing on the ChiNext Index and technology innovation in Q3 [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the banking sector has experienced a significant pullback, with the banking index down over 6% since mid-July, indicating a potential end to the decline as the volatility in the banking sector has returned to historically low levels [2][27][28] - The report suggests that the current valuation of the banking sector is high, with the price-to-book ratio at 0.74 and the price-to-earnings ratio at 7.49, indicating a mismatch between valuation and profitability [35][36] - The report emphasizes that the banking sector's dividend yield remains attractive compared to long-term bond yields, which may support continued investment from long-term capital [36][37] Group 3 - The report identifies that the ChiNext Index and technology sectors are poised for recovery, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies and emerging industry trends such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [3][60] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the ChiNext Index is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.89, suggesting a relative valuation advantage compared to other major indices [60][63] - The report indicates that the profitability of the ChiNext Index is significantly higher than the overall A-share market, with a profit growth rate of 19% in the first quarter, further supporting its investment appeal [61][63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has seen a significant increase in institutional interest, with the total heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs reaching 80.371 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 39% [7][18] - The proportion of heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs relative to the overall market has increased to 2.39%, up by 0.49 percentage points, indicating sustained enthusiasm from institutions towards the innovative drug sector [19][25] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs account for 24.93% of the total heavy positions in the pharmaceutical industry, reflecting a rise of 5.49 percentage points [19][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Review of New Drug Market - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (29.53%), WuXi AppTec (17.72%), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (14.60%), Maiwei Biotech (12.08%), and Haizhi Pharmaceutical (11.76%) [14][15] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: Kintor Pharmaceutical (-19.09%), Hualing Pharmaceutical (-16.19%), Junsheng Pharmaceutical (-13.24%), Kintor Pharma (-12.70%), and Yunding New Drug (-11.29%) [14][15] Key Analysis of New Drug Industry - The report analyzed the latest heavy positions of all funds in the innovative drug sector as of June 30, 2025, focusing on A-share and Hong Kong Biotech companies [18] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs accounted for 7.05% of the total market capitalization, an increase of 0.93 percentage points [23][28] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, 13 new drug or new indication applications were approved, including drugs such as Risperidone orally disintegrating film and Nivolumab injection [33][34] - Additionally, 6 new drug or new indication applications were accepted, including drugs like Eptinezumab injection and Edaravone tablets [35][36] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance - A total of 50 new drug clinical applications were approved this week, while 44 new drug clinical applications were accepted [37]

2025 年 8 月 3 日 电子 Meta、微软上调资本开支，苹果 业务表现强劲 Meta 和微软披露财报，并上调资本开支 Meta 公布第二季度业绩，第二季度营收达 475 亿美元，每股 收益 7.14 美元，为应对快速演进的 AI 竞赛，公司继续在人才、基 础设施、数据中心和能源方面进行大量投资，上调 2025 年全年支 出将在 660 亿美元至 720 亿美元之间，此前预计全年支出下限为 640 亿美元。公司正积极进军智能眼镜领域，已推出 Ray-BanMeta 智能眼镜，并在 6 月发布 OakleyMeta 眼镜。公司还在开发未来将 推出的独立 AI 眼镜。公司表示，未来 AI 将驱动公司业务的所有环 节,在提升广告投放效率、为用户提供聊天机器人伙伴、帮助工程 师编程等方面有很大潜力，并计划未来将为用户打造"个人超级智 能"，并为此持续进行资本投入。 微软公布其 2025 财年第四财季及全年的业绩报告，公司第四 财季营收达到 764.4 亿美元，较上年同期增长 18%；净利润为 272 亿美元，同比增幅 24%。在各业务板块中，智能云业务表现突出， 当季营收 298.8 亿美元，同比增长 26%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 13.77 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 12.03 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.569 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million CNY, down 40.16% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to market demand downturn and intense price competition [1][2]. - The company is experiencing a continuous optimization of its channel structure, with retail and engineering channels accounting for 84% of total revenue in H1 2025. Retail channel revenue share increased by 1.54 percentage points [2]. - The company is actively responding to industry price competition by raising prices on certain waterproof products, which is expected to improve profitability in the second half of 2025 [8]. Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 135.69 billion CNY, with a quarterly breakdown showing Q1 and Q2 revenues down 16.71% and 5.64% year-on-year, respectively. The decline in Q2 was less severe compared to Q1 [1]. - Revenue from retail, engineering, and direct sales channels in H1 2025 was 50.59 billion CNY, 63.47 billion CNY, and 20.36 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -6.98%, -5.26%, and -28.01% [2]. Product and Regional Analysis - In H1 2025, revenue from waterproof membranes, coatings, mortar, and engineering construction was 5.513 billion CNY, 3.946 billion CNY, 1.996 billion CNY, and 849 million CNY, with respective growth rates of -8.84%, -17.11%, -6.24%, and -32.34% [3]. - The company achieved overseas revenue of 576 million CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.16%, with ongoing construction of overseas bases and plans to acquire a 100% stake in Chilean building materials supermarket Construmart S.A. [3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.40%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 26.71%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points from Q1 [4]. - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of 396 million CNY in H1 2025, which was an improvement compared to a net outflow of 932 million CNY in the same period last year [8]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 25.436 billion CNY, 26.554 billion CNY, and 27.833 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 1.227 billion CNY, 1.439 billion CNY, and 1.696 billion CNY, indicating significant growth in net profit in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 9.47 yuan [5][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 9.262 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.26%, despite a revenue decline of 5.70% to 112.032 billion yuan [1][2]. - The profit growth is attributed to effective cost control measures and the orderly expansion of renewable energy capacity, particularly in the wind and solar sectors [2][3]. - The company is focusing on a green and low-carbon transition, with a significant increase in wind and solar installed capacity, which now accounts for 29% of its total controllable power generation capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan, down 5.70% year-on-year, while net profit reached 92.62 billion yuan, up 24.26% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to lower electricity generation and prices, but fuel cost reductions helped improve profitability [2][4]. Capacity and Generation - As of June 30, 2025, the company's controllable power generation capacity reached 152,992 MW, with wind power at 20,038 MW and solar power at 24,050 MW [3]. - The total electricity generated in H1 2025 was 205.683 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year, with coal power generation down 7.06% [3]. Long-term Profitability - The company's long-term profitability will increasingly depend on capacity revenue and auxiliary service market income, with significant contributions expected from flexible coal power unit modifications [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2383.74 billion yuan, 2414.50 billion yuan, and 2416.61 billion yuan, with net profits of 123.89 billion yuan, 134.92 billion yuan, and 139.14 billion yuan, respectively [5][10]. Investment Outlook - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory for the company, driven by its leadership position in the power industry and the ongoing transition to renewable energy [15][16]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.3, 8.5, and 8.3, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 20.71 [4][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the overseas licensing of UBT251 as a demonstration of the company's R&D capabilities, with an innovative drug pipeline expected to yield results [2][3]. - UBT251 is the first three-target weight loss drug authorized to a multinational corporation (MNC) in China, with significant clinical progress anticipated by 2025 and potential market peaks in both domestic and overseas sales [3][4]. - The company has a robust antibiotic and insulin segment, with a comprehensive supply chain from upstream intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into animal health, which is expected to drive new growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into new therapeutic areas such as autoimmune diseases and metabolism [13][14]. - Historical performance shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 11.55% from 2005 to 2023, although recent performance has been impacted by production adjustments and increased R&D investments [25][29]. 2. UBT251 Development - UBT251 has commenced multiple clinical trials in China, with significant milestones expected in the coming years, including potential market approval by 2028 [3][37]. - The competitive landscape for three-target weight loss drugs is favorable, with UBT251 currently positioned second in clinical progress among domestic competitors [39][40]. 3. Antibiotic and Insulin Segments - The antibiotic market is expected to grow steadily, driven by the rigid demand for penicillin formulations, while the insulin segment has shown resilience with a significant increase in procurement volumes [4][6]. - The company has successfully navigated the challenges posed by antibiotic procurement policies, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [4][6]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 0.89% for 2025, with net profits expected to reach approximately CNY 2.86 billion [7][8]. - The report anticipates a peak sales potential of CNY 7.7 billion domestically and USD 6 billion overseas for UBT251, assuming a 50% success rate for market entry [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy-A" with a target price of 31.41 CNY for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 49.34 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion CNY, up 3.0% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 24.50 billion CNY, down 2.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its overseas diversification and digital transformation to enhance production efficiency, which is expected to improve operational performance [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, domestic sales revenue decreased by 0.3% while export revenue increased by 12.3%. The second quarter's domestic sales remained flat, and export growth slowed [2]. - The air conditioning segment saw a revenue decline of 6.0% for Hisense Hitachi, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market affecting domestic sales, while exports continued to grow [2]. - The home appliance segment (ice and washing machines) experienced a revenue increase of 4.8% in H1 2025, with domestic sales benefiting from trade-in policies [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 was 21.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved profitability in the ice and washing machine segment [3]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by an increase in expense ratios [3]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for Q2 was 5.26 billion CNY, a significant increase of 170.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a 17.6% increase in cash received from sales [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to improve profitability through ongoing upgrades in product structure and benefits from trade-in policies driving domestic sales [3][4]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is 2.62 CNY, with a PE valuation of 12x, supporting the target price of 31.41 CNY [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the increasing power density of electronic devices, driven by the proliferation of technologies such as 5G, AI, and IoT, is leading to significant thermal management challenges. The thermal flow density is approaching 100W/cm², necessitating advanced thermal management solutions to ensure system reliability [1][16][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Management Challenges - The report discusses the exponential increase in electronic component failure rates with rising temperatures, noting that a 10°C increase can lead to a 50% increase in failure rates [1][16]. - It emphasizes that traditional thermal management systems are nearing their physical limits, making the development of efficient thermal management solutions critical for the evolution of computing power [24]. 2. Passive Cooling Solutions - The report identifies limitations in traditional passive cooling methods, such as metal heat sinks and graphite materials, which struggle with heat transfer efficiency in high-density applications [2][33]. - Vapor Chamber (VC) technology is highlighted as a promising passive cooling solution due to its superior thermal conductivity and ability to meet the demands of increasingly compact electronic devices [2][33]. 3. Active Cooling Solutions - Liquid cooling is presented as a viable solution to overcome the limitations of forced air cooling, with applications in both cloud data centers and consumer electronics [3][4]. - The report notes that the liquid cooling market for data centers is projected to reach $9.231 billion by 2031, indicating significant growth potential [4]. 4. Market Size and Industry Chain - The global market size for VC technology is projected to be $1.089 billion in 2024, with substantial applications across consumer electronics and data centers [4]. - The report outlines the industry chain for VC technology, including upstream raw materials and production equipment, and downstream applications in various sectors [4]. 5. Beneficiary Companies - The report lists several companies that are expected to benefit from advancements in thermal management technologies, including Feirongda, Suzhou Tianmai, and others [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in sales of its core products, particularly the glucosamine hydrochloride capsules, driven by market expansion through centralized procurement and refined sales management [2][34] - The company is actively developing a comprehensive fish oil product line, aiming for a full industry chain layout to enhance quality and reduce costs [3][55] - The research pipeline includes promising projects in brain health, particularly focusing on the development of a first-class chemical drug, N-acylserine, which has significant potential in treating neurological conditions [3][63] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is committed to developing high-end small varieties of "marine drugs" and "major disease medications," leveraging its marine drug development platform to expand its product offerings [11] - The actual controller, Yan Yiyi, holds a total of 23.58% of the company's shares, indicating strong insider confidence [13] - The company has shown steady growth in revenue from 341 million yuan in 2017 to 714 million yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 11.15% [17] 2. Glucosamine Hydrochloride Capsules - The demand for joint cartilage protectants is increasing, contributing to the steady growth of the domestic glucosamine market, projected to reach approximately 8.3 billion yuan by 2025 [40] - The company has successfully expanded its market coverage through centralized procurement, achieving over 41% market share in nine provinces [44] - Sales of glucosamine capsules in retail pharmacies have grown from 374 million yuan in 2019 to 728 million yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of about 14.28% [48] 3. Fish Oil EPA - The company is advancing a project to produce 1,000 tons of super fish oil EPA, aiming for a high-quality, low-cost production model [55] - The company has submitted new drug applications for EPA soft capsules, which are expected to enhance its position in the lipid-regulating drug market [56] - The sales of EPA/DHA health products in China are projected to grow from 3.2 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting increasing consumer health awareness [58] 4. Research Pipeline - The company has a rich research pipeline focusing on marine drugs, elderly medications, anti-tumor drugs, and health products, with significant potential in the brain health sector through the development of N-acylserine [3][63]