1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report is an introductory guide to treasury bond futures, detailing the characteristics and concepts of various treasury bond futures products, which offer efficient and flexible interest rate risk hedging tools for financial market participants, deepening China's bond market and promoting the process of interest rate liberalization [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Varieties - There are 4 treasury bond futures products listed on the China Financial Futures Exchange, covering different maturities. Each product has 4 fixed contracts per year with delivery months in March, June, September, and December, but only the nearest three quarterly contracts are traded [12]. - The contract underlying the 2 - year treasury bond futures has a face value of 2 million yuan, while the others have a face value of 1 million yuan, all with a nominal coupon rate of 3%. Shorter - term futures have lower minimum margin ratios, with the 2 - year futures at 0.5% (200 - fold leverage) and the 30 - year at 3.5% (28 - fold leverage) [12]. - In terms of open interest, the 10 - year futures has the largest scale (280,000 lots), followed by the 5 - year and 30 - year (180,000 lots), and the 2 - year has the lowest (80,000 lots). In 2025, the average daily trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 40,000, 70,000, 90,000, and 120,000 lots respectively, with the long - term varieties having relatively higher trading volumes and the 30 - year having a leading trading proportion [13][15]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Concepts - The concepts include the main contract, continuous contract, deliverable bonds, conversion factors, CTD (cheapest - to - deliver bond), treasury bond futures pricing, basis, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), which together reveal arbitrage opportunities and market relationships [20]. 3.3 Main Contract - The main contract is the one with the largest trading volume, open interest, and market influence in a particular variety, reflecting market expectations and supply - demand relationships for interest rates. It is usually the current - quarter contract due to high hedging and arbitrage demand and optimal liquidity. When the current - quarter contract approaches the delivery month, the next - quarter contract takes over as the main contract [21]. 3.4 Continuous Contract - The continuous contract is a virtual contract sequence created to connect the prices of individual treasury bond futures contracts with different maturities, facilitating technical analysis, back - testing, and long - term trend observation. Wind uses the "post - adjustment method" to eliminate price gaps during contract switching [22]. 3.5 Deliverable Bonds and Conversion Factors - To ensure standardization and continuity of treasury bond futures, the contract underlying is a virtual standard bond. The conversion factor is used to standardize different deliverable bonds, calculated as the present value of a deliverable bond's future cash flows discounted at the coupon rate of the virtual standard bond and divided by the face value. The invoice price in actual delivery is calculated as the futures settlement price × conversion factor × face value+accrued interest [25]. 3.6 CTD (Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond) - CTD is the bond with the lowest delivery cost among the basket of deliverable bonds, determined by calculating the delivery net cost (bond market price - (futures settlement price × conversion factor)). Its influencing factors include conversion factors, market interest rate fluctuations, and bond liquidity. Empirically, when the market yield > 3%, low - coupon, long - duration bonds are more likely to be CTD; when < 3%, high - coupon, short - duration bonds are more likely [33][35][36]. 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Pricing - Pricing is based on the "no - arbitrage principle." In an efficient and frictionless market, the futures settlement price = spot bond net price+interest income - financing cost - coupon income. Considering the seller's option value in the delivery rules, the actual formula is futures settlement price+option value = spot bond net price+interest income - financing cost - coupon income [39][41]. 3.8 Basis - The basis in treasury bond futures represents the "holding cost" or "return" of holding a spot treasury bond and hedging through short - selling futures contracts. It is calculated as the net price of the deliverable bond - (futures settlement price × conversion factor of the deliverable bond), and is affected by interest income, financing cost, and short - seller option value [42][43]. 3.9 Net Basis - The net basis is the basis minus the net return during the holding period, directly reflecting the short - seller option value of a particular futures variety, with the CTD having the highest net basis [44][45]. 3.10 Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - IRR measures the theoretical annualized return of a basis trade ("buy spot, sell futures") held until delivery. When IRR > market risk - free rate, there is an arbitrage opportunity; when <, there may be a reverse arbitrage opportunity, but it is not risk - free. The CTD has the highest IRR [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][21] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving an operating income of 38.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year [1][8] - The company's internal business continues to solidify its leading position, while external business expansion has made significant breakthroughs, with major projects in renewable energy storage and hydropower monitoring contributing to substantial revenue growth [2][19] - The company is accelerating its global layout, successfully entering markets in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Brazil, Chile, and Nicaragua, and has developed key technologies such as a 300MW variable-speed pumped storage system and hydrogen-electric coupling energy management system [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.903 billion yuan, up 7.81% year-on-year but down 16.24% quarter-on-quarter [1][19] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 26.50%, down 3.13 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 14.11%, down 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [19] Business Development - The company has successfully deployed core products in the new generation dispatch system, electricity spot market, and distribution automation, enhancing its market share [2][19] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for power grid investment is expected to increase, with significant projects in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) expected to be tendered soon, which may lead to further growth in orders for the company [20] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.369 billion yuan, 9.462 billion yuan, and 10.716 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 21, and 19 times [3][21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading global optical lens provider, focusing on both standardized and customized optical lenses, with a projected revenue CAGR of 15% and a profit CAGR of 33% from 2021 to 2024 [1][4] - The traditional lens industry is expected to maintain steady growth, while the smart (AI) glasses segment presents significant expansion opportunities, with a projected global sales volume of approximately 1.6 million units if penetration reaches 10% by 2029 [3][38] - The company has established a strong position in the XR glasses market, having secured exclusive supply agreements with major players like Alibaba for their AI glasses [4][62] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the resin lens industry for nearly 30 years, expanding its business into the XR glasses sector [15] - It has maintained a strong growth trajectory, becoming the top resin lens manufacturer in China by shipment volume since 2020, and ranking fifth globally by revenue in 2024 [20][25] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1.76 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.24 billion RMB by 2027, with a net profit expected to increase from 327 million RMB to 833 million RMB over the same period [5][34] - The gross margin has improved from 30.6% in 2018 to 39.16% in the first half of 2024, driven by a shift towards higher-margin customized lenses [32][36] Industry Analysis - The global lens market is projected to reach a retail value of 54.3 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.7% from 2019 to 2024 [2][38] - The smart glasses segment is still in its infancy, with a current penetration rate of only 0.2%, but has the potential for rapid growth as technology and consumer acceptance evolve [3][38] Competitive Landscape - The lens industry is characterized by low overall concentration but high concentration in the high-end segment, where the company competes with established brands like EssilorLuxottica and Carl Zeiss [48][57] - The company has a competitive edge due to its advanced manufacturing capabilities and strong relationships with international brand clients [4][20]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月07日 固收+系列之四 股债恒定 ETF：运作体系、海外经验借鉴与市场影响 股债恒定 ETF 概念界定：股债恒定 ETF 是被动管理型"固收 +"工具，以固 定股债比例为核心配置规则，通过自动化再平衡机制维持预设资产配比，精 准跟踪股债恒定比例指数。其核心目标是依托股债资产负相关或低相关特 性，实现"收益优于纯债产品、波动低于纯股产品"的风险收益均衡，提升 组合夏普比率。 当前主流的架构是"ETF-FOF"形式，底层含股票 ETF（提供增值与股息）、 债券 ETF（提供票息与对冲）及少量现金类资产（作流动性缓冲），覆盖多 档风险比例。 股债恒定 ETF 的核心是纪律性的再平衡，最常见的机制是定期再平衡，通常 以季度或半年为周期执行操作，也有少量产品采用的是阈值再平衡规则，当 资产偏离预设的比例一定程度时执行再平衡操作。 海外经验：贝莱德 iShares 系列实践：贝莱德 iShares Core Allocation 系 列是海外股债恒定 ETF 的标杆，于 2008 年推出，按风险等级分保守（股 30%+ 债 70%）、温和（股 40%+ 债 60%）、平衡（股 60%+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway (601390.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit continue to decline, but there is a slight recovery in new contract signing. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue (excluding financial business) of 773.8 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.49 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, the operating revenue was 262.7 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.66 billion yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year. The total new contracts signed in the first three quarters reached 1,584.9 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with 476.2 billion yuan signed in the third quarter, up 6.0% year-on-year [8][9][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2025 was 8.85%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the second quarter and 0.13 percentage points from the same period last year. However, the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 2.16%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the second quarter and down 0.13 percentage points year-on-year. The company's period expenses were 14.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, with a period expense ratio down by 0.17 percentage points [2][9]. Asset Management - The company has been actively managing its assets, with accounts receivable and contract assets decreasing. In the third quarter of 2025, total assets increased by 23 billion yuan compared to the end of the second quarter, while total liabilities increased by 13 billion yuan. Accounts receivable and notes decreased by 1.5 billion yuan, and contract assets decreased by 800 million yuan [2][15]. Cash Flow - The company achieved a net inflow of operating cash flow of 6.7 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 8.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Investment cash inflow for the first three quarters was 24.5 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year, exceeding the total for 2023 [3][16]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with net profits projected at 27.6 billion yuan, 29.2 billion yuan, and 31.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 1.11 yuan, 1.18 yuan, and 1.28 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 5.22, 4.93, and 4.50 [21][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][15][20] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in revenue [1][7] - The company signed new contracts worth 462.6 billion yuan in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% [1][7] - The overall profitability and asset quality improvement face challenges due to the ongoing downturn in the industry, but there is potential for recovery as downstream demand stabilizes [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 239.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year [1][7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 728.4 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.8 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year [1][7] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.63%, down 0.61 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin increased to 1.72%, up 0.15 percentage points [9] - The company’s expense ratio decreased to 6.07%, down 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, but the margin after expenses was 2.56%, down 0.23 percentage points [9] Cash Flow and Asset Management - The company’s accounts receivable and contract assets increased by 3.8 billion yuan and 9.1 billion yuan respectively in Q3 2025, with growth rates showing significant narrowing [11] - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 300 million yuan, which is 7 billion yuan less than the same period last year [11] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting net profits of 22.1 billion yuan for 2025, with earnings per share of 1.63 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 4.9 [15][18] - The expectation is that as downstream demand stabilizes, the company’s revenue, profit, and cash flow will improve [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The debt - equity constant ETF is a passive "fixed - income +" tool that aims to achieve a risk - return balance, with a clear risk - return profile, standardized operation rules, and low costs, making it suitable for diverse investment needs [1][11]. - Driven by policies, index development, and market demand, the domestic market has the basic conditions for the large - scale development of such products, and overseas experience provides important references [31][35]. - The debt - equity constant ETF will have a dual impact on the bond market and will also cause substitution and forcing effects on "fixed - income +" funds [3][32][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Concept Definition - **Definition and Goal**: The debt - equity constant ETF is a passive ETF product that maintains a preset asset allocation ratio through an automated rebalancing mechanism to track the "debt - equity constant ratio index", aiming to achieve a risk - return balance and improve the Sharpe ratio [12]. - **Asset Composition and Proportion Rules**: It belongs to "multi - asset ETF" or "ETF - FOF", with underlying assets including stock ETFs and bond ETFs in preset fixed ratios, covering multiple risk levels. The ratios are specified by the tracked index, and currently, the domestic indexes are mainly issued by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [13]. - **Rebalancing Trigger Mechanism**: There are two main types: regular rebalancing, usually carried out quarterly or semi - annually; and threshold rebalancing, which is triggered when the actual weight of stocks or bonds deviates from the preset ratio by a certain threshold [14][15]. - **Reference Index and Market Foundation**: China Securities Index Co., Ltd. has launched 40 debt - equity constant indexes since 2012, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange launched 3 in 2024. The indexes are managed by a "regular + temporary" dual - track system and calculated using the "constant ratio chain - weighted" framework [16][18][20]. Overseas Experience and Reference - **Product System**: BlackRock's iShares Core Allocation series, launched in 2008, offers four types of products based on risk levels: conservative, moderate, balanced, and aggressive, covering a full risk spectrum [21][22]. - **Operation Mode**: The products adopt the ETF - FOF model, holding multiple core stock ETFs and bond ETFs under BlackRock, enabling global asset allocation [23]. - **Performance**: The return and volatility characteristics of the four ETFs are determined by the debt - equity ratio. The aggressive ETF with a high stock ratio has the highest long - term return but greater volatility, while the ETF with a high bond ratio has a more stable performance [26]. - **Scale Change**: Market preference has led to different trends in the scale of the four ETFs. Initially, the balanced and moderate ETFs had higher growth rates, but after 2023, the scale of the balanced and aggressive ETFs rebounded, while that of the moderate and conservative ETFs declined [27]. Debt - Equity Constant ETF Reshaping the Market Landscape - **Core Driving Factors**: Policy support from the CSRC and the upcoming new regulations on public fund sales fees provide policy and capital basis; the launch of debt - equity constant indexes by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. provides underlying targets; and the current low - running bond market creates a demand for debt - equity constant ETFs [31]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: It creates a regular allocation demand for specific bond varieties, providing price support during the initial establishment phase. The rebalancing mechanism can play a reverse - adjustment role, reducing market irrational fluctuations [32]. - **Impact on "Fixed - Income +" Funds**: It has a substitution effect by diverting funds seeking standardized and stable returns and a forcing effect by pushing active "fixed - income +" funds to transform into differentiated competition [33]. - **Summary**: The debt - equity constant ETF has the potential to become a core tool in asset allocation, promoting the development of a differentiated competition pattern in the "fixed - income +" field [34][35].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in upstream sectors, while midstream sectors exhibit a mixed recovery, with the coal industry maintaining stability and the petrochemical sector continuing to face challenges [9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in the new energy chain, is showing improvement, with demand for machinery and automotive sectors gradually recovering [9] - Consumer sectors are experiencing a divergence, with home appliances and food and beverage sectors showing positive trends, while the pharmaceutical sector faces increasing price pressures [9] Industry and Company Analysis Textile and Apparel Industry - Adidas reported a 12% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, with management raising the full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected performance [10][11] - The company achieved a net profit of €485 million in Q3, with all regions and channels showing double-digit growth, except for North America, which was impacted by a decline in accessory sales [10][11] - The management has adjusted the full-year revenue growth expectation to approximately 9%, with an operating profit target raised to about €2 billion [10][11] Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to increase by 9.1% [12][13] - The average price of potassium chloride in October was reported at ¥3228 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [12] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is rising, with production capacity reaching 5.92 million tons per year, and prices increasing by 7% in October [13] Livestock and Agriculture - The investment strategy for November 2025 recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks, with expectations for beef prices to accelerate [17] - The report highlights a potential turning point in the domestic beef cycle, with optimism for both domestic and international markets [17] - The prices of live pigs and poultry are showing upward trends, with live pig prices increasing by 6% month-on-month [18] Medical Devices - Mindray Medical's international business is growing steadily, with Q3 revenue expected to accelerate compared to Q2 [26] - The company reported a revenue of ¥258.34 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of ¥75.70 billion, despite facing price pressures in the domestic market [26][27] - The company is focusing on enhancing its global supply chain and local production capabilities, with international revenue accounting for over 50% of total revenue [26] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report on Baicheng Pharmaceutical indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to intensified competition in the generic drug market [28][29] - The company is transitioning towards innovative drug development, with over 15 projects in the pipeline, focusing on neurology, autoimmune diseases, and oncology [29] - The production capacity utilization is expected to improve as the company secures contracts for multiple drug varieties [29] Orthopedic Devices - Weigao Orthopedics reported a 10% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by sales model integration and refined management practices [31] - The company is focusing on optimizing its sales structure and enhancing clinical service levels, which has led to increased revenue and volume across multiple product lines [31][32] - The net profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [32]

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, highlighting that the CSI 500 Index performed well among scale indices, and the STAR 50 Index performed well among sector indices[2][7] - The market sentiment is detailed with 72 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 20 stocks hitting the daily limit down, with a sealing rate of 64% and a continuous board rate of 22%[2][14][17] - The report provides data on the financing balance and securities lending balance, with the total margin balance being 24,915 billion yuan as of November 5, 2025[2][19] - The ETF premium and discount rates are discussed, with the STAR Composite Index ETF Xingyin having the highest premium and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF Xinhua having the highest discount[3][23] - The report includes data on large transactions, with the average discount rate over the past six months being 6.32% and the discount rate on November 5, 2025, being 7.81%[3][26] - The annualized discount rates of the main contracts of stock index futures for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are provided, with the SSE 50 index futures having an annualized discount rate of 0.89% on November 6, 2025[3][28] - The report lists the stocks that have been frequently researched by institutions in the past week, with Sanhua Intelligent Controls being the most researched by 284 institutions[4][30] - The report provides data on the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats and Northbound funds, with Haike New Energy and Weichai Power being the top stocks for net inflow and outflow, respectively[4][36][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][3][24] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 92.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by growth in its main businesses: kitchen foods, feed raw materials, and oil technology [1][9] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 184.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.02% [1][9] - The kitchen food segment saw significant profit growth, particularly in flour and rice, benefiting from lower raw material prices and effective procurement and marketing strategies [1][9] - The feed raw materials and oil technology segment also experienced growth in both sales and profits, supported by lower import costs for soybeans and stable demand in the domestic aquaculture industry [2][9] Summary by Sections Kitchen Food Business - High-end products such as olive oil and peanut oil showed robust growth, with the company actively expanding its health product offerings [2] - The introduction of new high-end products received positive feedback, with some achieving a repurchase rate exceeding 30% [2] Feed Raw Materials and Oil Technology Business - The company is expected to maintain good performance in its crushing business due to favorable raw material procurement and stable downstream demand [2] - The anticipated increase in soybean crushing profits is supported by low import costs and favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia [2] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.143 billion, 3.645 billion, and 3.909 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 55, 48, and 44 [3][24] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 254.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 6.5% [4][24] Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved by 1.66 percentage points to 6.55%, while the net margin increased by 0.85 percentage points to 1.62% in the first three quarters of 2025 [16] - Operating cash flow significantly improved, with a net increase of 120% year-on-year, reaching 27.597 billion yuan [18]